Dec. 19, 2025 — Hut 8 Corp. (Nasdaq: HUT; TSX: HUT) is back in the market spotlight as investors and analysts digest a headline-grabbing pivot: a long-term, Google-backed AI infrastructure lease that could reshape how Wall Street values the company.
Hut 8 shares were trading around $42.55 in Friday trading, up roughly 10% on the session, after swinging between $40.14 and $43.20 earlier in the day. Bitcoin, still a key sentiment driver for many “crypto-adjacent” equities, was hovering near $87,960, down about 1%.
The immediate catalyst isn’t Bitcoin mining economics. It’s the market’s attempt to price Hut 8 as something closer to a “power-first digital infrastructure” developer—one with multi-year contracted cash flows—rather than a pure-play miner.
What’s driving Hut 8 stock on Dec. 19: fresh analyst action + a massive AI lease
The latest push higher comes as new analyst notes continue rolling in following Hut 8’s Dec. 17 announcements centered on the River Bend data center campus in Louisiana—plus a wave of price-target hikes that intensified through Dec. 18 and into today.
On Dec. 19, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) raised its price target to $55 from $30 and maintained an Outperform rating, citing Hut 8’s execution on early high-performance computing (HPC) colocation economics and the scale potential at River Bend. [1]
That call landed on top of earlier upgrades this week, including Craig-Hallum’s move to an $80 target (from $60) and Piper Sandler reiterating an Overweight stance with a $74 target. [2]
The River Bend deal in plain English: the $7.0B “re-rating” event
Hut 8’s core announcement is a 15-year, triple-net (NNN) lease with Fluidstack for 245 megawatts (MW) of IT capacity at its River Bend campus in Louisiana, with a stated base-term contract value of $7.0 billion. [3]
A few details matter a lot for investors trying to model this:
- Google financial backstop: Hut 8 says Google is providing a backstop covering lease payments and certain pass-through obligations for the 15-year base term, a structure meant to reduce counterparty risk. [4]
- Escalators and renewals: The base rent includes a 3% annual escalator, and renewal options could lift total contract value to roughly $17.7 billion if exercised. [5]
- NOI framing: Hut 8 expects roughly $6.9 billion in cumulative net operating income (NOI) over the base term (about $454 million per year on average). [6]
- Delivery timeline: The first data hall is targeted for Q2 2027 completion/commissioning, with more capacity expected to come online through 2027. [7]
- Project financing plan: Hut 8 outlined expectations for project-level financing of up to 85% loan-to-cost, with JPMorgan as lead-left underwriter and Goldman Sachs also expected to participate, subject to definitive documentation and closing conditions. [8]
Hut 8 also filed an 8-K noting the lease with Fluidstack and the Google backstop, and referenced an investor presentation tied to the transaction. [9]
The Anthropic angle: why this isn’t just “one lease”
In a separate announcement the same day, Hut 8 described a broader AI infrastructure partnership with Anthropic and Fluidstack designed to accelerate U.S. hyperscale AI buildouts.
The structure is framed in “tranches”:
- Tranche 1: Launch at River Bend with 245 MW of IT capacity (supported by 330 MW of utility capacity).
- Tranche 2: A right of first offer (ROFO) for up to 1,000 MW more at River Bend (subject to power expansion).
- Tranche 3: Potential joint development of up to 1,050 MW of additional optional capacity across Hut 8’s broader pipeline beyond River Bend.
In total, the partnership lays out a path to deliver at least 245 MW and up to 2,295 MW of AI data center infrastructure. [10]
For equity markets, the big conceptual shift is this: instead of living and dying by Bitcoin price + hashprice, Hut 8 is marketing itself as a scarce “power-and-permits” platform positioned to feed AI’s appetite for electrons and cooling.
Analyst forecasts and price targets: what Wall Street is saying this week
A cluster of analyst updates has formed the backbone of the “HUT stock forecast” conversation as of Dec. 19. Here are the most widely circulated themes:
KBW: $55 target, thesis built around lease valuation + expansion optionality
KBW’s note (as reported today) argues the stock’s valuation is being held back more by “AI and Bitcoin sentiment” than by concerns about Hut 8’s execution on the lease itself, and it highlights River Bend expansion optionality plus broader pipeline capacity tied to Anthropic. [11]
Craig-Hallum: $80 target, “great deal” with upside via additional tranches
Craig-Hallum’s raised target leans heavily on the economics of the initial 245 MW and the potential to scale through additional tranches, pointing to the Google backstop and named financing partners as de-risking factors. [12]
Piper Sandler: $74 target, valuation range modeling across tranches
Piper Sandler’s update describes building discounted cash flow models across the tranches and lays out a wide potential range, underscoring both upside and the reality that execution, financing, and timing assumptions are doing a lot of work in any model today. [13]
Cantor and Canaccord: bullish framing on “re-rating” from miner to infrastructure
A TipRanks recap highlights Cantor Fitzgerald lifting its target to $72 (from $64) and Canaccord to $62, framing the structure—especially the Google backstop—as a meaningful credibility upgrade for financing and future deal-making. [14]
Important nuance: price targets are forecasts, not facts. What they do signal is how quickly the Street is shifting its Hut 8 valuation lens from “Bitcoin torque” to “contracted infrastructure multiple.”
Why Louisiana matters: incentives, jobs, and the power buildout story
One reason River Bend is resonating beyond financial circles: the project’s scale is being framed as a major regional economic development win.
Louisiana Economic Development described River Bend as up to a $10 billion Phase I investment and projected roughly 1,000 construction workers at peak build, plus at least 75 direct jobs once operational (with additional indirect job estimates also published). [15]
Entergy, the regional utility involved in the broader buildout narrative, echoed the “up to $10 billion” framing and job expectations in its release. [16]
For investors, the “boots-on-the-ground” takeaway is simple: AI data centers are increasingly gated by power access and interconnection timelines, so locations with cooperative utility pathways and state support can be strategically valuable—if execution holds.
Hut 8 fundamentals: what the company looked like before the AI headlines
It’s easy to get hypnotized by a $7B number and forget the base business. Hut 8’s most recent quarterly report before these announcements was its third quarter 2025 release (Nov. 4).
Key figures from that report include:
- Revenue:$83.5 million (vs. $43.7 million in the prior-year period), with $70.0 million attributed to its “Compute” segment. [17]
- Net income:$50.6 million, which included gains/losses on digital assets. [18]
- Adjusted EBITDA:$109.0 million. [19]
- Bitcoin strategic reserve: Reported as 13,696 BTC as of Sept. 30, 2025, split between Hut 8 and its American Bitcoin subsidiary per the company’s disclosure. [20]
This matters because the market is essentially asking: can Hut 8 keep the optionality of crypto exposure while layering in more predictable, long-duration infrastructure revenue?
“But isn’t Hut 8 still a Bitcoin miner?” Yes—and that’s part of the volatility
Even as Hut 8 pushes the infrastructure narrative, the stock still tends to trade with crypto sentiment because:
- digital assets remain part of its financial story,
- a portion of earnings can be impacted by crypto price movements,
- and investor positioning often buckets HUT with other “crypto infrastructure” names.
Reuters framed Hut 8 as part of a broader cohort of former crypto miners pivoting into AI infrastructure to meet rising demand. [21]
This dual identity is why you can see a week where massive bullish announcements coexist with sharp pullbacks: the market can love the long-term contract and still punish the stock for near-term risk appetite shifts.
Risks investors keep circling: execution, financing, and dilution math
The bullish thesis is easy to summarize: long-term AI leases + power development scarcity = re-rating.
The risk list is longer (because reality is always longer):
- Construction and delivery risk: River Bend’s first meaningful delivery is targeted in 2027, leaving a multi-year window for delays, cost overruns, permitting issues, and supply chain friction. [22]
- Financing and capital structure risk: Even with backstops and targeted project financing, large builds can pressure balance sheets or drive equity issuance depending on market conditions. [23]
- Concentration risk: A lot of near-term narrative weight is now attached to one campus (River Bend) and a small set of counterparties—even if they’re high quality. [24]
- Crypto sensitivity doesn’t disappear overnight: Bitcoin price swings can still shape sentiment and, depending on strategy, financial results. [25]
Simply Wall St’s analysis today captured the core tension: the lease strengthens the contracted-AI narrative but also concentrates execution risk at River Bend, where missteps could hit future cash flows. [26]
A quick look back: Hut 8 has been actively reshaping its asset base
One underappreciated piece of context: Hut 8 has also been rotating capital through its power portfolio.
In November, Hut 8 announced a definitive agreement for TransAlta to acquire a 310 MW portfolio of four natural gas plants in Ontario, positioning it as a value-crystallization move and a way to redeploy capital toward large-scale digital infrastructure opportunities. [27] TransAlta’s release pegged the purchase price at $95 million and noted the deal was expected to close by early Q1 2026 (subject to conditions). [28]
In the “HUT stock story arc,” this is consistent: narrow the strategy toward assets that support the power-to-compute thesis.
What to watch next for Hut 8 stock
For traders and long-horizon investors alike, the next catalysts are less about headlines and more about milestones:
- Financing progress and definitive documentation for River Bend project-level debt. [29]
- Construction updates and any revised timing around the first data hall targeted for Q2 2027. [30]
- Additional contracted capacity announcements under the broader Anthropic/Fluidstack framework (especially anything beyond the initial 245 MW). [31]
- Updates on business mix and cash generation in the next earnings cycle, including how the company balances AI capex demands with crypto exposure. [32]
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.prnewswire.com, 4. www.prnewswire.com, 5. www.prnewswire.com, 6. www.prnewswire.com, 7. www.prnewswire.com, 8. www.prnewswire.com, 9. www.sec.gov, 10. www.prnewswire.com, 11. www.investing.com, 12. www.investing.com, 13. www.investing.com, 14. www.tipranks.com, 15. www.opportunitylouisiana.gov, 16. www.entergy.com, 17. www.prnewswire.com, 18. www.prnewswire.com, 19. www.prnewswire.com, 20. www.prnewswire.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.prnewswire.com, 23. www.prnewswire.com, 24. simplywall.st, 25. www.prnewswire.com, 26. simplywall.st, 27. www.prnewswire.com, 28. transalta.com, 29. www.prnewswire.com, 30. www.prnewswire.com, 31. www.prnewswire.com, 32. www.prnewswire.com
