IAG Share Price Today: International Consolidated Airlines Group Stock Outlook After Dividend Restart, Buybacks and Analyst Upgrades

International Consolidated Airlines Group S.A. (IAG) has turned itself back into one of Europe’s most closely watched airline stocks. As of 1 December 2025, the owner of British Airways, Iberia, Aer Lingus, Vueling and LEVEL is paying a cash dividend again, running multiple share‑repurchase programmes and attracting a wave of bullish analyst calls – all while navigating softer transatlantic demand and a looming capacity glut in European short‑haul flying. ^[1]

This article pulls together the latest news, forecasts and analysis on IAG stock as of 1 December 2025, with a focus on what matters for investors watching the IAG share price on the London Stock Exchange (LON:IAG) and the Madrid market (IAG.MC), as well as the US ADR (ICAGY).

IAG share price today and performance in 2025

On IAG’s own investor site, the group quotes its latest share prices at roughly 392p in London and €4.46 in Madrid, placing the group’s market capitalisation in the high‑teens billions of pounds. ^[2] Data from Investing.com and other market sources show the stock has been trading in the £3.80–4.00 range in recent sessions. ^[3]

Despite some recent volatility around Q3 results, 2025 has been a very strong year for shareholders:

Over the past 12 months, IAG shares have gained about 59%, far ahead of the FTSE 100’s mid‑teens percentage rise.
Over three years, the stock is up more than 190%, reflecting the recovery from the pandemic trough and the restoration of profitability. ^[4]

Momentum has also been positive into late November. On 25 November the stock jumped 3.14% intraday to about £3.92, outperforming a slightly negative FTSE 100 and continuing a run of six consecutive profitable quarters, backed by strong operating cash flow of roughly £9 billion and a market cap around £18.2 billion. ^[5]

Technically, IAG has also flashed bullish signals. In early November, MarketBeat reported that the share price had moved above its 200‑day moving average (around 358p), reaching an intraday high of 427.6p and closing a session at just over 421p. ^[6]

Dividend restart: cash returns resume from 1 December 2025

The most visible milestone for income investors arrives today, 1 December 2025, when IAG starts paying its first regular interim dividend since the pandemic.

On 6 November the board approved a gross interim dividend of €0.048 per share against the 2025 financial year. After Spain’s standard 19% withholding tax, the net dividend is €0.0389 per share. The ex‑dividend date was 27 November, the record date 28 November, and the payment date begins 1 December across both the Spanish and UK markets, with Banco Santander acting as paying agent. ^[7]

In the Q3 2025 results pack, management emphasised that this is part of a “sustainable dividend” policy:

IAG paid €427 million in dividends for the 2024 financial year.
The company now aims to increase the total 2025 dividend broadly in line with inflation, restoring a pre‑Covid pattern where the interim and final dividend are roughly a 50/50 split of the annual payout. ^[8]

For US investors, the ADR IAG stock (ICAGY) has an ex‑dividend date cited as 1 December 2025, with a cash dividend of $0.09 per ADR, reflecting the euro‑denominated payout after conversion. ^[9]

If the interim represents roughly half of the full‑year payout, investors are effectively looking at a forward dividend yield in the mid‑2% range on recent prices – modest compared with high‑yield sectors, but notable for an airline that only recently rebuilt its balance sheet. ^[10]

Buybacks, treasury shares and a new share purchase programme

Dividends are just one pillar of IAG’s capital‑return story. The group has also been buying back stock and building up treasury shares:

By early November, IAG had repurchased around €950 million of a €1 billion share buyback announced with its 2024 full‑year results, with further returns of excess cash flagged for the 2025 full‑year results in February 2026. ^[11]
On 27 November, the company launched a new share purchase programme of up to €55 million, allowing up to 9.4 million shares – about 0.2% of the share capital – to be bought back between 27 November and 31 December 2025. The shares will be held in treasury and used to satisfy share‑based incentive awards for executives and employees. ^[12]

A fresh regulatory filing on 1 December confirmed how this fits into the capital structure. IAG now holds 157,304,947 shares in treasury, out of a total issued share capital of 4,727,201,147 shares, leaving 4,569,896,200 voting rights outstanding. ^[13]

That treasury stock can ultimately be used either for employee plans or to enhance earnings per share and dividend capacity if shares are cancelled. In its commentary, TipRanks notes that IAG’s market cap is about £18.1 billion, with technicals showing a short‑term “Buy” signal but an AI‑based analyst rating the stock “Neutral” pending clearer trends. ^[14]

Q3 2025 results: solid margins but softer transatlantic demand

The latest quarterly numbers – released on 6 November – are the key backdrop to today’s capital‑return moves.

Headline figures

Across multiple sources summarising the Q3 2025 earnings release:

Revenue for the quarter was about €9.33 billion, essentially flat year‑on‑year and slightly below analyst expectations. ^[15]
Operating profit (before exceptional items) came in around €2.05 billion, up roughly 2% from the same quarter last year but again marginally short of consensus estimates. ^[16]
Pre‑tax profit slipped about 2.1% to €1.87 billion, while net profit edged down to roughly €1.40 billion from €1.435 billion a year earlier. ^[17]

The group’s own presentation emphasised an operating margin of about 22% for the quarter, with a trailing 12‑month operating margin above 15%, and reiterated guidance for another year of revenue and earnings growth in 2025. ^[18]

Over the first nine months of 2025, IAG’s net profit reached around €2.7 billion, up 15.5%, while revenue rose nearly 5% to about €25.2 billion. All major airlines in the group – British Airways, Iberia, Vueling, Aer Lingus and LEVEL – delivered positive operating results. ^[19]

What worried the market

Despite these solid margins and rising profits, the share price fell 8–11% on the day of the Q3 release, dropping from recent highs above 420p to the low‑370s. ^[20]

Several factors were flagged:

Transatlantic softness: IAG reported weaker demand and lower load factors on its North Atlantic routes, with overall group load factor easing to about 88.6% and passenger numbers dipping slightly to 34.6 million. ^[21]
Pricing and FX headwinds: Analysts highlighted softer unit revenue on transatlantic flights, weaker pricing in some markets and currency fluctuations that knocked the top line. ^[22]
Shareholder‑return expectations: Spanish business daily Cinco Días noted that while IAG announced a cash dividend and completed a €1 billion buyback, some investors had hoped for more aggressive payouts, especially given strong summer profits and reduced net debt. ^[23]

Even so, management kept the 2025 full‑year guidance unchanged, signalling that bookings for Q4 remain strong and that the group expects another year of earnings growth and margin expansion, with capacity up about 2.5%, non‑fuel unit costs rising around 3%, and annual capex of roughly €3.7 billion alongside expected fuel costs of €7.1 billion. ^[24]

Analyst ratings and price targets: mostly bullish on IAG stock

Despite the wobble after Q3, the sell‑side remains broadly positive on IAG.

Broker targets

MarketBeat’s coverage shows:

In early November, Citigroup lifted its price target from 620p to 630p and kept a “buy” rating, implying about 67% upside from the previous close at the time of the note. ^[25]
Royal Bank of Canada has an “outperform” rating with a 500p target.
Deutsche Bank and Peel Hunt both rate the shares “buy”, with targets around 460p and 450p respectively. ^[26]

Across these brokers, MarketBeat calculates a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” with an average target price in the 440–450p zone, based on six Buy ratings and one Sell rating. ^[27]

TipRanks, which aggregates a slightly different analyst set, reports:

An average 12‑month target of about 487p, with a high estimate of 630p and a low of 370p.
This implies around 23% upside from a recent price around 397p, based on 12 analysts over the last three months. ^[28]

Investing.com’s consensus from 16 analysts labels the stock a “Buy”, with an average target around 464p and a range from roughly 349p to 628p. ^[29]

A separate MarketBeat summary based on seven analysts gives an average target of 455p, with a high of 630p and a low of 250p, representing about 16% upside versus a recent price just under 393p. ^[30]

TradingView’s forecast data lines up closely, with an average target near 465p, a high of 590p and a low of 350p. ^[31]

Fair‑value estimates and valuation

Beyond traditional broker research, several valuation services see IAG as undervalued:

Morningstar’s analysts have nudged their fair‑value estimate up from about £4.63 to £4.66 per share, with the share price still trading at a discount to this intrinsic value estimate. ^[32]
Simply Wall St argues that IAG trades at roughly two‑thirds below its modelled fair value, citing strong historical earnings growth (over 70% per year on average over the last five years) but warning about a high debt load and an unstable dividend history. ^[33]

From a classic value lens, IAG screens as cheap:

MarketBeat quotes a price‑to‑earnings (P/E) ratio around 6 and a price/earnings‑to‑growth (PEG) ratio of ~0.2, alongside a beta of about 2.3, underscoring both potential value and high volatility. ^[34]

Across the Atlantic, the US‑listed ADR ICAGY has been hitting fresh highs as well. Nasdaq highlighted a strong Q2 2025 EPS beat (around $1.29 vs $0.59 expected) and positive earnings revisions, prompting an article asking whether there was still “room to run.” ^[35] Around the same time, Zacks upgraded ICAGY to a “Strong Buy”, citing upward earnings estimate revisions and favourable valuation metrics. ^[36]

Sector backdrop: JPMorgan prefers IAG amid short‑haul oversupply warning

The macro backdrop for European airlines is mixed heading into 2026.

In a sector note published on 1 December 2025, J.P. Morgan warned that rising short‑haul capacity and softening pricing are likely to pressure many European airline stocks next year. The bank forecasts total European airline seat supply growth of about 5% in 2026, with narrow‑body capacity up more than 6%, and expects unit revenues for low‑cost carriers to fall slightly, even as fuel costs ease. ^[37]

However, the same report singles out IAG as its preferred exposure in European airlines:

J.P. Morgan reiterates an “overweight” rating on IAG, keeps the stock on its Analyst Focus List, and assigns a €6 price target, implying roughly 32% upside from the 27 November close.
The bank argues that IAG has better demand‑supply positioning into 2026, thanks to its long‑haul and premium exposure, and strong free‑cash‑flow potential. ^[38]

By contrast, the note downgrades or turns more cautious on several low‑cost carriers such as easyJet and Jet2, underlining how investors may begin to differentiate between long‑haul / flag carriers and heavily short‑haul players.

Growth drivers: global network, loyalty and a possible TAP stake

Fundamentally, IAG remains one of the world’s largest airline groups:

It operates a fleet of around 600 aircraft, serves more than 250 destinations and carried over 115 million passengers in 2023. ^[39]
The group’s brands cover major hubs in London, Madrid, Barcelona and Dublin, supported by IAG Cargo and IAG Loyalty, which runs the Avios frequent‑flyer ecosystem. ^[40]

Several structural levers underpin the medium‑term story:

Recovery and mix shift
Long‑haul and premium cabins continue to recover, with management highlighting robust demand on South Atlantic and Asia‑Pacific routes offsetting weaker North Atlantic traffic. ^[41]
Investment‑grade balance sheet
In 2025, rating agencies upgraded IAG and British Airways back to investment‑grade. S&P moved them to BBB (stable), Fitch to BBB (stable), and Moody’s maintains Baa3 with a positive outlook – a significant milestone after the pandemic. ^[42] That lowers financing costs and gives the company more room to return cash to shareholders.
Digital and product upgrades
Analysts at Proactive noted IAG’s recently announced deal with SpaceX’s Starlink to roll out high‑speed Wi‑Fi across all five airlines, a move that should support yields and strengthen the customer proposition on long‑haul routes. ^[43]
Potential acquisition of TAP
IAG has confirmed that it submitted an expression of interest in acquiring a stake in Portuguese flag carrier TAP Air Portugal, under the government’s partial privatisation process. ^[44] A Spanish‑language analysis in Cinco Días notes that IAG is weighing the strategic fit of TAP in its Iberian network, although Lufthansa and Air France‑KLM are also interested, and regulatory hurdles would be significant. ^[45]

If executed carefully, a TAP deal could cement IAG’s position as the dominant airline group in the Iberian peninsula and deepen connectivity between Europe, Brazil and other Portuguese‑speaking markets. But it would also add integration risk and potentially more debt.

Key risks: leverage, cyclicality and execution

Despite the upbeat broker commentary, IAG is not a low‑risk stock.

High leverage
Balance‑sheet metrics remain stretched. MarketBeat quotes a debt‑to‑equity ratio of about 338%, a quick ratio of 0.63, and a current ratio of 0.70 – levels that leave less room to manoeuvre if demand weakens or fuel prices spike. ^[46]
Cyclical demand and yield pressure
The Q3 sell‑off underlined how sensitive the stock is to changes in demand on critical routes like the North Atlantic. If the J.P. Morgan scenario of short‑haul oversupply and flat sector unit revenues plays out, IAG will need to rely heavily on its long‑haul and premium strengths to protect margins. ^[47]
Execution on shareholder returns
While IAG has completed a €1 billion buyback and restarted dividends, Spanish media and analysts have pointed out that current payouts only roughly match inflation, falling short of some investor hopes. Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan and Citi all talk about “significant cash returns” and even model scenarios such as a €1.5 billion buyback (about 8% of market cap) in 2026, but these are projections rather than firm commitments. ^[48]
Regulatory and integration risk
Any acquisition of TAP would require regulatory approval and could reignite concerns about competition on Iberian and transatlantic routes. If mis‑timed or over‑leveraged, such a deal could dilute the benefits of recent balance‑sheet repairs. ^[49]
Volatility
With a beta above 2, IAG shares historically move roughly twice as much as the broader market – in both directions. ^[50] The sharp 8–11% drop on Q3 results day, despite respectable profit growth, is a good reminder of that volatility.

Is IAG stock a buy after the 2025 rally?

Putting the pieces together as of 1 December 2025:

Valuation: On single‑digit earnings multiples and modest price‑to‑cash‑flow metrics, IAG is not priced like a “hot” growth stock. Multiple independent sources see upside of 15–30% over the next 12 months, with the most bullish targets (Citigroup’s 630p and JPMorgan’s €6) implying far more. ^[51]
Balance sheet and ratings: The return to investment‑grade status and continued debt reduction reduce existential risk compared with the post‑Covid years, though leverage is still high. ^[52]
Shareholder returns: Dividends are back, buybacks are ongoing, and management has explicitly signalled “further returns of excess cash” with the full‑year results in early 2026. ^[53]
Risks: Softer North Atlantic demand, a potential 2026 capacity glut in European short‑haul markets, and the possibility of a TAP deal all inject real uncertainty into earnings trajectories. ^[54]

For investors who believe that:

global air travel will remain robust,
IAG’s brand portfolio and long‑haul network give it durable advantages, and
management will follow through with sizeable cash returns while keeping leverage in check,

IAG’s current valuation and analyst support make a credible value‑with‑growth case.

For more risk‑averse investors, the combination of high debt, cyclicality and price volatility means IAG may be better viewed as a tactical holding rather than a core long‑term anchor.

Either way, today’s dividend payment, ongoing buybacks and the latest round of broker upgrades mean 1 December 2025 is a meaningful checkpoint in the post‑pandemic rehabilitation of International Consolidated Airlines Group stock.