International Consolidated Airlines Group S.A. (IAG)—the owner of British Airways, Iberia, Aer Lingus, Vueling and LEVEL—has stayed firmly on investors’ radar heading into mid-December, with the stock extending a strong 2025 run and drawing fresh discussion around valuation, dividends and next year’s earnings outlook. [1]
Below is a 12.12.2025 snapshot of the latest price action, today’s forecasts and analyst updates, and the key catalysts (and risks) that could shape IAG shares into the FY‑2025 results in February.
IAG share price on 12.12.2025: still below the 52‑week high, but up sharply year-on-year
As of 10:20 GMT on 12 December 2025, IAG traded at 402.39p (GBX) on the London Stock Exchange, up 1.20% on the day. That puts the share price at roughly £4.02 (because 402.39p ÷ 100 = £4.0239). [2]
Key market stats investors are using today:
- 1‑year change:+37.90% [3]
- 52‑week range:210.00p (low) to 429.30p (high) [4]
- Distance from 52‑week high: about 6.27% below the 429.30p peak set on 3 Nov 2025 [5]
- Market cap: about £17.59bn [6]
- P/E (TTM): about 7.32 (a key talking point in many “valuation looks cheap” arguments) [7]
This follows a strong prior session: MarketWatch reported that on Thursday, 11 December, IAG rose 3.11% to £3.98, outperforming a rising FTSE 100. [8]
What’s driving IAG stock right now: momentum, valuation, and “return of cash” narratives
A big part of today’s IAG conversation is that the stock is no longer just a reopening trade—it’s increasingly being framed as a cash-generation + shareholder returns story with a cyclical overlay (fuel, FX, demand).
1) Technical setup: “upside potential” theme in today’s trading commentary
In a 12 December 2025 technical note, MarketScreener’s editorial team argued IAG shares “display attractive technical aspects” and presented a trading framework with:
- Entry: ~401.4p
- Target: ~427.6p
- Stop-loss: ~366p
- Stated potential: ~+6.53% (from their entry level) [9]
That same piece also flags a familiar bull case: valuation appeal on earnings multiples, supportive cash flows, and a view that analyst EPS expectations have been moving up over time—while also warning that analyst targets vary widely (a sign of uncertainty). [10]
2) Fundamentals: profits are strong, but investors are watching demand mix closely
IAG’s latest quarterly reporting (Q3 FY25) matters because it gives context to why the market is debating “cheap” vs “cyclical peak.”
From IAG’s Q3 2025 interim management report (for the period ended 30 September 2025):
- Nine months 2025 revenue:€25,234m (vs €24,053m in 2024)
- Nine months operating profit:€3,931m (vs €3,322m)
- Q3 (three months) operating profit:€2,053m (vs €2,013m) [11]
But the operating metrics also show what cautious investors are monitoring:
- Group passenger load factor (Q3):88.6% vs 89.9% a year earlier
- North Atlantic load factor (Q3):86.7% vs 89.1% a year earlier [12]
That doesn’t automatically mean “demand is weak”—but it does help explain why the stock can rally on cash returns and valuation while still drawing debate about transatlantic performance, competitive capacity, and the macro cycle.
Analyst forecasts on 12.12.2025: consensus leans “Buy,” but targets vary
One of the most actionable “today” datapoints for investors is where analysts say the stock could go over the next 12 months.
Investing.com: consensus rating “Buy,” average target implies upside
Investing.com’s consensus snapshot shows:
- Overall consensus:Buy
- Breakdown:12 Buy, 3 Hold, 1 Sell (poll of the past 3 months)
- Average 12‑month target:472.40p, implying about +17.72% upside from the price level referenced on the page
- Target range:349p (low) to 672p (high) [13]
A notable “today” update: Kepler Cheuvreux maintained “Buy” on Dec 12
Also on Investing.com’s analyst table, Kepler Cheuvreux is listed as Buy with a 5.30 price target and an Action Date of Dec 12, 2025 (shown as “Maintain”). [14]
That matters for SEO readers because it’s one of the clearest same-day analyst updates tied to 12.12.2025.
MarketBeat: ADR coverage shows a more neutral headline stance (“Hold”)
A separate angle comes from MarketBeat’s 12 December 2025 write-up focused on the U.S. ADR (ICAGY), which summarises a “Hold” consensus from the analysts it tracks and highlights the push-pull between low headline multiples and balance-sheet leverage/liquidity measures. [15]
Important nuance: ADR-based ratios and share-price levels won’t match the London-quoted stock, so readers should treat ADR metrics as directional unless they’re specifically trading the ADR.
Dividends and shareholder returns: why income investors are paying attention again
A major change versus the post‑pandemic era is that IAG has reintroduced cash dividends and is signalling continued focus on returns.
Interim dividend details (declared in November; still shaping sentiment now)
In an RNS statement dated 6 November 2025, IAG announced a gross interim dividend of €0.048 per share, with:
- Ex-dividend date: 27 November 2025
- Record date: 28 November 2025
- Payment date: from 1 December 2025 [16]
The same statement says the company anticipates the total dividend for 2025 will increase in line with inflation compared to 2024 and—crucially for investors hunting for a “next catalyst”—it intends to announce further shareholder returns when it publishes Full Year 2025 results in February 2026. [17]
What the market is pricing in on 12.12.2025
The FT data page shows an annual dividend (as displayed) of 9.46p and an annual dividend yield of 2.45%, with the ex‑date and pay‑date aligned to late November / early December. [18]
Dividends matter for the IAG story because they can:
- provide a valuation floor for some investors,
- increase attention from income and “total return” portfolios,
- and reinforce confidence that management believes cash generation is durable.
Management outlook: cost guidance, capex, and fuel expectations underpin the 2026 debate
For airline stocks, guidance often moves the valuation more than headlines—because small changes in unit costs or fuel assumptions can swing profit expectations.
From IAG’s Q3 FY25 report, the company stated several modelling assumptions for 2025 including:
- Non‑fuel unit costs: expected to increase by around 3% in 2025
- Capital expenditure: expected to be around €3.7bn
- Total fuel cost: expected to be €7.1bn (based on jet fuel forward curve and FX rates at the end of Q3) [19]
These are the kinds of inputs analysts use to defend (or challenge) price targets—especially when the stock is already up strongly year‑to‑date.
Risks investors are watching: what could derail the bull case?
IAG’s own disclosures emphasise that the risk backdrop remains complex. In the Q3 interim report, IAG discusses “principal risks and uncertainties” that include (among others):
- geopolitical conflict and macro volatility,
- operational disruption and resilience (including air traffic control/airport services constraints),
- supply chain constraints affecting aircraft/engines/parts, and
- data and cybersecurity threats. [20]
From a market perspective, those risks tend to translate into a few recurring “stock-moving” questions:
- Will unit revenues hold up if capacity expands across Europe and the North Atlantic?
- Can IAG keep cost growth contained while investing in fleet, reliability, and customer experience?
- Does the current valuation discount reflect genuine cyclical risk—or is it overstating the downside?
What happens next: key dates for IAG shares
If you’re tracking IAG stock into year-end, the next hard catalysts are on the calendar.
IAG’s official investor calendar lists:
- 27 Feb 2026:FY‑2025 results
- 8 May 2026:Q1 2026
- 31 Jul 2026:Q2 2026
- 6 Nov 2026:Q3 2026 [21]
Given IAG’s earlier statement that it expects to discuss further shareholder returns with the FY‑2025 results, that February report is likely to be a key sentiment driver—alongside any updated guidance on demand, costs, and capital allocation. [22]
The big picture: airlines heading into 2026
It’s not just company-specific factors that matter. Sector-wide outlook can shape how much investors are willing to pay for airline earnings.
For example, Reuters reported this week that IATA expects global airlines to reach a record $41 billion net profit in 2026, while also warning about ongoing supply-chain and aircraft delivery constraints. [23]
For IAG, that kind of backdrop can act as a tailwind (if demand stays resilient) or a pressure point (if capacity and constraints create operational and pricing friction).
Bottom line on IAG stock (as of 12.12.2025)
On 12 December 2025, IAG stock is being pulled by three forces at once:
- Strong 2025 performance and momentum—still below the November peak, but up sharply year-on-year. [24]
- A valuation debate—with the shares trading on relatively low headline earnings multiples, encouraging “cheap vs cycle” arguments. [25]
- Forecasts and cash returns—consensus analyst targets generally imply upside, and management has restarted dividends while signalling more shareholder-return decisions around FY results. [26]
For Google News and Discover readers, the practical takeaway is simple: IAG’s next major narrative reset is likely to come with FY‑2025 results on 27 Feb 2026—when guidance, cash returns, and demand commentary can either confirm the “value + returns” thesis or reignite concerns about the cycle. [27]
References
1. markets.ft.com, 2. markets.ft.com, 3. markets.ft.com, 4. markets.ft.com, 5. markets.ft.com, 6. markets.ft.com, 7. markets.ft.com, 8. www.marketwatch.com, 9. www.marketscreener.com, 10. www.marketscreener.com, 11. www.iairgroup.com, 12. www.iairgroup.com, 13. www.investing.com, 14. www.investing.com, 15. www.marketbeat.com, 16. www.investegate.co.uk, 17. www.investegate.co.uk, 18. markets.ft.com, 19. www.iairgroup.com, 20. www.iairgroup.com, 21. www.iairgroup.com, 22. www.investegate.co.uk, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. markets.ft.com, 25. markets.ft.com, 26. www.investing.com, 27. www.iairgroup.com
