NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 3:00 a.m. ET — Market closed.
ICL Group Ltd. (NYSE: ICL) heads into the weekend with a firmer tape after shares finished the last regular U.S. session at $5.54, up 3.55% on the day, before ticking to about $5.59 in after-hours trading. With the NYSE closed until Monday, investors are left to digest a cluster of recent, company-specific developments—potash contracting in China, a food-ingredients acquisition, and evolving regulatory overhang tied to the Dead Sea concession—alongside a Wall Street consensus that remains cautious but points to modest upside. [1]
Where ICL stock stands heading into the next session
On the final trading day of the week (Friday, Dec. 26), ICL traded in a tight band between roughly $5.48 and $5.56 and ended the regular session at $5.54. After-hours trading pushed the quote modestly higher. ICL’s 52-week range sits around $4.70 to $7.35, leaving the stock in the lower-to-middle portion of its annual band as 2025 winds down. [2]
Public news flow in the last 24–48 hours has been relatively light, with most fresh coverage focused on recap-style price and valuation context rather than new corporate announcements. One widely circulated retail-investor summary published Sunday reiterated the latest close and highlighted valuation metrics such as ICL’s P/E versus sector medians. [3]
The big catalysts investors are still pricing in
1) China potash contracts for 2026: volumes and pricing clarity
A key near-term fundamental datapoint arrived earlier in the week via a regulatory filing: ICL disclosed it signed contracts—under its 2025–2027 framework agreements with customers in China—to supply 750,000 metric tons of potash to China during 2026, with a mutual option for an additional 330,000 metric tons, at a price aligned with recent China settlements of $348 per ton (CIFFO). [4]
Why it matters: potash contracting tends to function like a “price signal” for the broader fertilizer complex. For ICL, potash is also one of the company’s “core mineral” cash engines—so contracted volumes and reference pricing can shape investor expectations around 2026 potash profitability and cash generation.
2) Bartek Ingredients acquisition: doubling down on specialty food ingredients
ICL also announced a definitive agreement to acquire Bartek Ingredients, described as a global leader in food-grade malic and fumaric acid—ingredients used to enhance flavor, extend shelf life, and improve product quality across food and beverage end-markets. Bartek is described as generating about $65 million in annual revenue and operating the only vertically integrated maleic anhydride and food-grade malic/fumaric production facilities in North America, with a new production facility expected to be completed in 2026. [5]
The deal is structured in two phases. The first phase—expected to close in Q1 2026—involves an approximately $90 million cash investment for about 50% of Bartek; the second phase is tied to milestones and would bring ICL to full ownership. [6]
Elad Aharonson, ICL’s President and CEO, positioned Bartek as a strategic extension of ICL’s “specialty food solutions” push, while Andrew Ross, Bartek’s CEO, emphasized expected benefits from leveraging ICL’s scale and technical capabilities. [7]
3) Strategy reset: stepping back from downstream LFP cathode materials
ICL’s strategic pivot in battery materials remains an important investor talking point. In a quarterly filing tied to the company’s Q3 results, ICL disclosed that—following the U.S. Department of Energy decision to discontinue funding for the St. Louis facility and amid shifting EV demand and regulatory changes—it decided to discontinue its U.S. operations related to establishing an LFP cathode active material facility and to terminate the related Spain joint venture with Shenzhen Dynanonic. [8]
Crucially for near-term reported earnings, ICL said it expects to record an asset write-off of approximately $40 million (net of tax) in Q4 2025 in connection with these discontinued projects. [9]
4) Dead Sea concession: regulatory stakes, compensation framework, and draft-law risk
The company’s long-dated—but potentially material—regulatory story is the Dead Sea concession, which expires in 2030. Reuters reported that Israel published a draft law aimed at increasing state revenues from mineral extraction and addressing environmental concerns, and that the proposal could raise the state’s profit share from 35% to an average of 50%, while also setting the stage for a more competitive post-2030 structure. Reuters also reported that ICL could be entitled to significant compensation—up to $3 billion—if it were to lose the permit, reflecting asset-transfer mechanisms tied to the concession regime. [10]
In ICL’s own SEC materials, the company described a memorandum of understandings (MOU) signed with the Israeli government (through the Accountant General) intended to reduce uncertainty around concession-asset valuation and payment timing. The filing describes a payment of $2.54 billion upon expiration of the concession for specified assets, plus additional investment-related amounts associated with a salt-harvesting solution—figures that help explain why this issue can meaningfully impact long-term valuation narratives. [11]
Fundamentals backdrop: Q3 results, guidance, and dividend policy
In its third-quarter 2025 report, ICL posted $1.9 billion in consolidated sales and adjusted EBITDA of $398 million, while reporting net income attributable to shareholders of $115 million. Management characterized performance as year-over-year growth in sales and EBITDA, with improved potash pricing contributing to segment performance. [12]
ICL also reiterated full-year guidance for specialties-driven EBITDA of $0.95 billion to $1.15 billion and maintained its expectation for potash sales volumes of 4.3 million to 4.5 million metric tons. [13]
For income-focused investors, ICL’s investor materials also spell out the company’s dividend framework and recent distributions. The company’s stated policy calls for a payout ratio of up to 50% of annual adjusted net income, and its 2025 dividend table shows the most recent quarterly dividend (record date Dec. 2, 2025, paid Dec. 17, 2025) at $0.0480 per share. [14]
Forecasts and analyst stance: price targets imply upside, but consensus remains “Hold”
On the Street, the tone is measured. MarketBeat’s consensus snapshot shows a “Hold” rating based on four analyst ratings, with an average 12-month price target of $6.23 (roughly 12% upside from the mid-$5 range), and a range of $6.00 to $6.50. [15]
ICL’s own investor relations site lists a broad set of sell-side coverage—an important detail for investors tracking how institutional views may evolve—naming analysts and firms including Barclays, BMO, Citi, Jefferies, Morgan Stanley, and others across the U.S., U.K., Canada, and Israel. [16]
Recent rating changes flagged in market coverage include a note that Barclays cut its price objective to $6.00 and assigned an “equal weight” stance in a prior report, while other services have tracked “hold”-leaning commentary in December. [17]
What investors should know before the next NYSE session
Because the NYSE is closed right now, Monday’s open is less about “what’s trading” and more about “what could gap.” Here are the practical watch-items that matter most for ICL going into the next U.S. session (Monday, Dec. 29):
Watch dual-listing price discovery in Israel. ICL is dual-listed (NYSE and TASE). The Tel Aviv Stock Exchange has historically operated Sunday through Thursday, which can create price discovery while U.S. markets are shut—though Israel is in the process of moving to a Monday–Friday trading week starting in early January 2026. [18]
Track fertilizer and potash headlines, especially China pricing. ICL’s disclosed $348/ton CIFFO China contracting for 2026 is the freshest hard datapoint on potash economics investors can anchor to right now. Any additional industry pricing updates or competitor contract disclosures could spill into Monday’s tape. [19]
Revisit the “earnings quality” question around Q4. The expected $40 million (net of tax) write-off tied to discontinued LFP projects is a reminder that reported Q4 numbers may include non-operating noise—investors may choose to focus on cash generation and segment trends (potash, bromine/industrial products, and specialties) rather than headline EPS alone. [20]
Know the clock. When trading resumes, U.S. equity markets follow standard premarket/regular/after-hours windows, with the regular NYSE session running 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, and extended trading available through many brokers. [21]
Earnings date is not company-posted yet—treat calendar dates as estimates. ICL’s investor events page currently shows no upcoming events scheduled, while third-party calendars estimate a late-February 2026 reporting window based on historical cadence. Investors should monitor ICL’s investor relations updates for any confirmed announcement. [22]
Bottom line
ICL stock enters the weekend with modest momentum after Friday’s gain, but the bigger story is still fundamental: contracted potash volumes into China, a deliberate pivot into higher-margin specialty food ingredients via Bartek, and a clearer (though still politically sensitive) framework for the post-2030 Dead Sea concession. With the NYSE closed until Monday, any fresh developments—particularly from Israel trading or commodity-market news—could show up as a gap at the next U.S. open rather than a gradual intraday move. [23]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. www.aaii.com, 4. www.sec.gov, 5. investors.icl-group.com, 6. investors.icl-group.com, 7. investors.icl-group.com, 8. www.sec.gov, 9. www.sec.gov, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.sec.gov, 12. investors.icl-group.com, 13. investors.icl-group.com, 14. investors.icl-group.com, 15. www.marketbeat.com, 16. investors.icl-group.com, 17. www.marketbeat.com, 18. www.tase.co.il, 19. www.sec.gov, 20. www.sec.gov, 21. www.kiplinger.com, 22. investors.icl-group.com, 23. stockanalysis.com
