As of December 9, 2025, IMAX Corporation (NYSE: IMAX) is trading around $38.28, just below its recent close of $38.50 and near a fresh 52-week high in the high-$37 to $38 range. [1] The stock has delivered a strong mid-30%–plus total return over the past year and nearly 30% over the last six months, dramatically outpacing the broader market. [2]
Behind that rally: record box office, a deepening partnership in China, a generous buyback program, and a wave of bullish analyst calls in the last few days.
IMAX stock today: rally fueled by upgrades and China headlines
IMAX shares have been on a tear in early December. On December 8, the stock closed at $38.50, up 7.8% in a single session. [3] A report earlier today notes that IMAX jumped 7.6% in morning trading after a wave of positive analyst ratings and news of a strengthened strategic partnership in China, which has helped reinforce bullish sentiment. [4]
A recent analysis described 2025 as an “under-the-radar” rally for IMAX, highlighting that shares spiked more than 8% on December 5 after management laid out bullish three-year guidance at its Investor Day. [5] That guidance calls for high single-digit to low double-digit annual revenue growth, with earnings per share (EPS) growing roughly twice as fast as revenue – an aggressive profitability story if it plays out. [6]
Taken together, the market is reacting not just to current results but to a narrative of IMAX as a structurally higher-margin, global premium format play rather than just “a movie theater stock.”
Wall Street’s view: consensus “Buy” and rising price targets
Across multiple data providers, IMAX currently carries a consensus “Buy” rating:
- One analyst survey shows 9 analysts with an average 12-month target around $39.4 and a consensus rating of “Buy.” [7]
- Another dataset tracking 11 analysts pegs the average target at about $39.3, with a high of $47 and a low around $32. [8]
- A separate platform also reports a Buy consensus from 9 analysts and a 2025 price prediction in the mid-$30s, reflecting older but still broadly positive expectations. [9]
What really changed the mood in early December, however, is the cluster of fresh upgrades and target hikes:
- Benchmark raised its price target to $42 from $40, reiterating a Buy rating and noting that IMAX is trading just below its 52-week high, with recent analyst targets spanning roughly $32–$44. [10]
- Roth Capital today lifted its target to $42 as well, keeping a Buy rating. [11]
- A summary of recent analyst actions shows:
- Goldman Sachs upgraded IMAX from Sell to Neutral on November 25, raising its target from $22 to $34.
- Rosenblatt reiterated a Buy rating with a $42 target.
- J.P. Morgan maintained Neutral while nudging its target from $31 to $32. [12]
- A tally of the latest calls from Wedbush, Benchmark and Barrington Research shows an average target of about $43.3, implying roughly low-teens percentage upside from where the stock was trading before this week’s spike. [13]
- Wedbush, in particular, raised its price target following IMAX’s 2025 Investor Day, signaling increased confidence in the growth plan (the firm’s exact new target isn’t disclosed in the available snippet, but the direction is clear: up). [14]
Put simply: sentiment is skewing more bullish, and the latest round of target increases is helping push the stock to new highs.
Earnings and financial health: record Q3 and fat margins
From a fundamentals standpoint, IMAX looks less like a low-margin cinema chain and more like a high-margin technology/licensing business tied to box-office volume.
For full-year 2024, IMAX generated about $352 million in revenue (down roughly 6% year over year) but grew earnings to about $26 million, a modest increase. [15] That set the stage for a stronger 2025.
The real inflection came in Q3 2025:
- IMAX reported record third-quarter revenue of $106.7 million, with net income, adjusted EBITDA, EPS and adjusted EPS all up more than 30% year over year. [16]
- Adjusted EPS came in at $0.47, beating the consensus estimate by nearly 24% and rising 34% versus the prior year. [17]
- One detailed breakdown put gross margin at 63.1%, up from 55.7% a year earlier – a sign the company is leveraging its fixed cost base as box office flows across its network. [18]
On a trailing basis, IMAX has also posted strong profitability:
- Trailing 12-month revenue is around $362 million, with a gross margin near 58%, according to recent analyst notes. [19]
In plain English: the business throws off high margins when content and attendance cooperate.
Box office engine: from summer dominance to “Wicked: For Good”
IMAX’s earnings are a leveraged play on the global blockbuster slate, and 2025 has been kind:
- In Q2 2025, IMAX’s global box office rose 19%, and the company achieved its highest-ever domestic quarter at $143 million, even as the broader U.S. box office actually fell about 11%. [20]
- An October note cited a record global box office of $360 million in Q3, underlining the company’s ability to over-index on big titles. [21]
Recent releases continue to feed the machine. Universal’s “Wicked: For Good” – the sequel and finale of its Broadway adaptation franchise – has delivered a $226 million global debut, including $150 million domestic, making it the biggest global opening ever for a musical adaptation and one of 2025’s top launches. [22] IMAX and premium large format screenings contributed tens of millions of dollars, with one report citing over $15 million in IMAX ticket sales and a new November record for the format. [23]
That kind of slate – big fan bases, effects-heavy event movies that people want to see on giant screens – is precisely what IMAX’s model is built for.
China, global footprint, and the Wanda partnership
A major pillar of the current bull case is IMAX’s international and especially Chinese exposure.
A December 9 note highlights that: [24]
- IMAX’s China network now reaches roughly 48% market penetration, with China box office up about 50% year over year in Q3 2025.
- The company is deepening its partnership with Wanda:
- Upgrading 61 existing theaters to IMAX with Laser.
- Adding 25 new IMAX locations, heavily weighted toward Tier-1 cities.
- Globally, IMAX’s network has expanded to 1,738 systems across 89 countries, with about 74% of its backlog coming from international markets, which helps diversify away from any single region.
- Management and some analysts are now talking about sustained EBITDA margins north of 50%, assuming continued box-office recovery and disciplined cost control.
The upshot: IMAX isn’t just riding U.S. multiplex traffic – it is positioning as a global premium standard, particularly in fast-growing markets where middle-class consumers are still upgrading their entertainment habits.
Capital returns: a beefed-up $500 million buyback
On June 12, 2025, IMAX announced a $100 million increase to its existing share repurchase program and extended it by a year to June 30, 2027. This move lifted the total authorization to $500 million, with roughly $250 million still available at the time of the announcement. [25]
Since the current repurchase program began back in 2017, IMAX has bought back about 15.1 million shares, cutting its share count by roughly 23% for an aggregate spend of around $249 million. [26]
For shareholders, that combination of:
- High gross margins
- Growing box office
- And an active buyback
makes for a powerful EPS growth cocktail – which is a big reason why so many analyst models have EPS growing faster than revenue over the next several years. [27]
Medium-term forecasts: 2028 targets and growth math
Several recent analyses, including commentary tied to IMAX’s record holiday box office and fan-driven re-releases, point to management’s 2028 narrative: [28]
- Revenue of about $466 million by 2028
- Earnings of roughly $74 million
- Implied revenue CAGR around 8.7%, with EPS growing at about twice that pace
These are goals, not guarantees, and they depend on a reasonably healthy global box office, sustained premium pricing power, and continued network growth. But they give Wall Street a framework for justifying price targets in the low-to-mid $40s – especially when layered on top of buybacks and structurally higher margins.
Technical backdrop: strong momentum and institutional interest
From a technical analysis perspective, IMAX is also screening well:
- Investor’s Business Daily recently highlighted IMAX’s Composite Rating rising from 89 to 96, meaning it is outperforming 96% of all tracked stocks on a blend of earnings and price metrics.
- The stock has an EPS Rating of 98, reflecting earnings better than 98% of all stocks in the database.
- IMAX recently cleared a buy point at $29.20 from a double-bottom base, according to that same report, and now sits well above that breakout level.
- An Accumulation/Distribution rating of B- suggests moderate institutional buying over the last quarter. [29]
Technical ratings aren’t destiny, but they do tell you this is a name institutions have been quietly accumulating for most of 2025 – the stock’s explosive December move is more like the finale of a long setup than a random spike.
Valuation check: how “expensive” is IMAX now?
With the stock near $38, IMAX is trading slightly above some older consensus targets (around $39) and toward the upper end of the $32–$47 price-target range. [30]
A recent valuation snapshot notes:
- The stock has delivered a ~38% total return over the past year and more than 29% over six months, signaling strong momentum. [31]
- Some fundamental screens argue IMAX is trading above its “fair value” estimate, suggesting the market is already discounting a good portion of the 2028 growth story. [32]
In short, this is no longer a depressed recovery play – it’s priced more like a quality growth story with execution risk.
Key risks: streaming shocks, film slate, and China exposure
Even with the current euphoria, there are obvious pressure points:
- Streaming consolidation and studio strategy
Netflix’s $83 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery’s studio and streaming businesses recently hit traditional theater stocks, including IMAX, which fell about 3.4% on the day. [33]- Fewer wide theatrical releases or shorter theatrical windows could crimp IMAX’s pipeline.
- On the other hand, the same report notes Netflix has pledged to honor existing theatrical agreements through 2029, and IMAX could benefit if Netflix uses IMAX to create premium “event” releases, as it has experimented with on past titles. [34]
- Box office cyclicality
A weaker blockbuster slate, delays in tentpole releases, or franchise fatigue would hit IMAX harder than more diversified entertainment companies, because its economics are tied to the “must-see on the biggest screen” tail of the distribution. - China and geopolitical risk
The Wanda expansion and high penetration in China are great when demand is strong, but they also add exposure to regulatory, currency and macro risk in that market. [35] - Execution vs. expectations
The market is clearly starting to price in high-single-digit revenue growth and sharply rising EPS; if guidance is cut or box office underwhelms, a richly-valued small-cap like IMAX can give back gains quickly. [36]
Bottom line
As of December 9, 2025, IMAX is a high-beta way to bet on the global theatrical rebound and the staying power of premium cinema experiences. The stock is near its highs, analysts are scrambling to lift price targets into the low-to-mid $40s, margins are expanding, and management is backing its story with an enlarged $500 million buyback that has already shrunk the share count by more than 20% over the last several years. [37]
Against that, investors face all the usual modern-media uncertainty: streaming mega-deals, changing windowing strategies, the risk of a thin film slate, and geopolitical noise in key growth markets like China.
References
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