ImmunityBio (IBRX) Stock in Focus on Dec. 15, 2025: EMA’s ANKTIVA Nod, Analyst Targets, and What Comes Next

December 15, 2025 — ImmunityBio, Inc. (NASDAQ: IBRX) is back on investors’ radar today as fresh coverage and new analysis dig into a major European regulatory milestone for its lead therapy ANKTIVA (nogapendekin alfa inbakicept). The market’s obsession is simple: does this become the catalyst that turns ImmunityBio into a real commercial oncology story—or just the latest biotech pop before the harder work of reimbursement, uptake, and cash management begins?

Below is a complete, publication-ready roundup of the news, forecasts, and market analysis circulating on December 15, 2025, plus the key fundamentals investors are weighing right now.

Why ImmunityBio stock is in the news today

The core driver behind the renewed attention is the European Medicines Agency (EMA) Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) issuing a positive opinion recommending conditional marketing authorization for Anktiva + BCG in BCG-unresponsive non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) with carcinoma in situ (CIS), with or without papillary tumors. ^[1]

That CHMP opinion (dated December 11, 2025) is not yet the final legal greenlight for EU-wide commercialization—the European Commission still needs to make the final decision—but it is a meaningful de-risking event for companies pursuing EU access. ^[2]

ImmunityBio’s own announcement frames this as a “first in Europe” moment for this disease setting, emphasizing that patients whose disease does not respond to BCG often face radical cystectomy (bladder removal) as the major remaining option. ^[3]

Medical trade coverage published today is also amplifying the clinical rationale and trial design details, keeping the story circulating beyond finance-only outlets. ^[4]

IBRX stock price action: the move that set up today’s debate

While today’s headlines are about analysis and “what it means,” the price action that set the stage happened at the end of last week:

IBRX closed at $2.36 on Dec. 12, 2025, up 7.76%, with heavy volume (roughly 24.7M shares shown in market data). ^[5]
Early trading indicators for Dec. 15, 2025 (pre-market) show the stock around $2.39 in at least one widely-followed real-time feed. ^[6]

Several market recaps published today point to an intraday range around $2.25–$2.50 during Friday’s session and a modest after-hours uptick—useful context for understanding how much “regulatory optimism” was already priced in immediately. ^[7]

What the EMA opinion actually means for ImmunityBio’s business

Conditional authorization: faster access, but not “mission accomplished”

The EMA describes conditional marketing authorization as a mechanism intended for unmet medical needs, where the public-health benefit of earlier availability outweighs the risk of having less comprehensive data than typically required—and where additional data are expected later. ^[8]

This matters for ImmunityBio stock because it can accelerate the “commercial conversation” in Europe—pricing, reimbursement planning, and launch sequencing—while still keeping pressure on the company to execute post-authorization commitments and real-world adoption.

The clinical headline numbers investors keep repeating

From the EMA’s own summary, the benefits highlighted include:

71% complete response rate (with confidence interval reported by EMA)
Median duration of complete response: 26.6 months (with confidence interval reported by EMA) ^[9]

ImmunityBio’s statement also points to responses extending out beyond four years in some patients and provides additional durability cut points (including 12- and 24-month response information). ^[10]

Medical reporting adds additional trial texture and safety detail: OncLive notes grade 3 treatment-related adverse effects in a small percentage of patients and no grade 4 or 5 treatment-related adverse effects reported in the cohorts discussed—important because NMIBC therapies live and die not just on efficacy, but on tolerability in a population that may have other options like surgery. ^[11]

The “next step” the market is watching

The EMA opinion now moves to the European Commission for a final EU-wide marketing authorization decision. ^[12]

In plain investor English: today’s story is about momentum and probability, but the stock’s medium-term repricing will likely depend on how quickly this turns into a real European commercial path—especially in a price-sensitive oncology environment.

The fundamentals behind the headlines: revenue traction vs. cash reality

Regulatory wins can ignite biotech stocks. But they don’t pay manufacturing bills by themselves.

ImmunityBio’s most recent quarterly filing (quarter ended Sept. 30, 2025) shows a company that is generating product revenue—but still operating at a loss:

Product revenue (Q3 2025): $31.78M (vs. $5.96M in Q3 2024) ^[13]
Total revenue (Q3 2025): $32.08M (vs. $6.06M in Q3 2024) ^[14]
Net loss (Q3 2025): $67.25M (vs. $109.98M in Q3 2024) ^[15]

On liquidity, the same filing reports (as of Sept. 30, 2025):

Cash and cash equivalents: $60.24M
Marketable securities: $197.57M ^[16]

That’s roughly $257.8M in cash + marketable securities—widely cited today as the “war chest” figure, but also a reminder that the company’s runway depends on burn rate and capital strategy. ^[17]

Today’s forecasts and analyst outlook for IBRX stock

Jefferies lifts target to $9 and flags 2026 catalysts

One of the most-circulated analyst updates tied to the EMA progress: Jefferies raised its price target to $9 from $8 while keeping a Buy rating, explicitly linking the change to European regulatory momentum. ^[18]

Notably, the same report highlights two forward-looking items that traders will likely staple to their monitors:

Ongoing regulatory discussions around papillary disease
An NCCN guideline decision expected by February 2026
Additional BCG-naive data anticipated in the second half of 2026 as a possible label-expansion opportunity ^[19]

Whether those timelines hold is a different question—but this is exactly the kind of “next catalyst calendar” that drives small- and mid-cap biotech trading.

D. Boral stays aggressive: $24 target remains in place

Separate coverage of analyst commentary notes D. Boral Capital’s Jason Kolbert reaffirming a Buy rating with a $24 price target, while also pointing to another bullish target from HC Wainwright (reported as $8 in the same recap). ^[20]

Consensus targets imply huge upside—but the spread tells you the real story

Consensus data aggregators continue to show average targets around ~$10.40, with “Buy”-leaning consensus and very large implied upside versus the low-$2 share price range. ^[21]

But here’s the sober subtext: the range of targets is extremely wide (single digits to the mid‑20s), and that’s usually the market’s way of admitting:

“We agree it could be big… we just don’t agree on the probability.”

The December 15 “bull vs. bear” narratives investors are reading right now

Bull case: EU access could change the revenue trajectory

Analysis published today argues the EMA/CHMP milestone could strengthen the bullish narrative by opening the door to European reimbursement and a clearer commercial ramp—especially because ImmunityBio already has U.S. approval and U.K. approval in the same setting, making Europe the next logical expansion step. ^[22]

In that framing, the stock’s rally isn’t just “good news”—it’s the market attempting to price a higher probability that ANKTIVA becomes a multi‑geography commercial product rather than a single‑region story.

Bear case: single-arm data, post-marketing scrutiny, and financing risk

The same analysis also emphasizes risks that have not magically disappeared:

The label and regulatory pathway rely on single‑arm trial data, which can attract ongoing scrutiny as broader real-world data accumulate. ^[23]
ImmunityBio is still managing heavy losses and a finite cash runway, raising the possibility of additional dilution or financing needs depending on burn and rollout pace. ^[24]

Meanwhile, market wrap coverage today keeps returning to the same balancing act: regulatory wins help, but execution (commercial uptake + financing discipline) determines whether the stock’s spikes become a sustained trend. ^[25]

Key things to watch next for ImmunityBio stock

For readers tracking IBRX stock into year-end and early 2026, these are the practical “next questions” implied by today’s news cycle:

1) European Commission decision and launch sequencing
CHMP is a big step, but the final EU-wide authorization and the practical launch roadmap—partners, distribution, pricing strategy, and reimbursement pace—matter for revenue timing. ^[26]

2) Post-marketing evidence expectations
Conditional authorization comes with an implicit demand: continue generating long-term safety/efficacy evidence. That evidence can strengthen the franchise—or create headline risk if outcomes underwhelm. ^[27]

3) NCCN and additional label expansion pathways
Analyst commentary points to an NCCN guideline decision expected by Feb. 2026 and future BCG-naive data (H2 2026) as potential catalysts that could materially change physician adoption and addressable market size. ^[28]

4) Cash discipline vs. commercial acceleration
The September-quarter filing shows meaningful revenue growth but ongoing losses and a defined liquidity pool—so investors will watch how efficiently ImmunityBio turns regulatory momentum into repeatable sales without overspending. ^[29]

Bottom line on ImmunityBio (IBRX) stock today

On December 15, 2025, the ImmunityBio stock story is less about a single headline and more about a narrative collision:

Regulatory momentum in Europe is improving the “multi-region commercial franchise” argument for ANKTIVA. ^[30]
Analyst targets and forecasts remain dramatically above the current share price, with Jefferies explicitly lifting its target and laying out a 2026 catalyst path. ^[31]
Financial reality—losses, commercialization costs, and cash runway—still shapes the risk profile, which is why thoughtful analysis today keeps returning to dilution and execution risk. ^[32]

In other words: the market is treating ANKTIVA’s European progress as a real step forward—but it’s also demanding proof that ImmunityBio can convert regulatory wins into durable revenue growth.