India’s export engine roared back in November 2025, delivering the fastest growth in more than three years and sharply narrowing the trade gap—an upbeat data point at a time when global tariff tensions, currency pressure, and shifting supply chains are reshaping how Indian companies sell to the world.
Official data released on December 15, 2025 shows merchandise exports rising to $38.13 billion, up from $31.94 billion a year earlier, while imports eased to $62.66 billion. That combination pulled the goods trade deficit down to $24.53 billion, a five-month low after October’s record-wide gap. [1]
What made the headline more striking: the rebound came even as India’s biggest export market—the United States—remains a battleground for tariffs and trade negotiations, with officials signaling that a framework deal could be nearing. [2]
November 2025 trade data: the key numbers (goods, services, and the overall deficit)
The Commerce Ministry’s release doesn’t just point to a better goods balance; it shows the broader external picture improving too, thanks to India’s services surplus.
- Merchandise exports (Nov 2025):$38.13B (vs $31.94B in Nov 2024)
- Merchandise imports (Nov 2025):$62.66B (vs $63.87B in Nov 2024)
- Estimated services exports (Nov 2025):$35.86B (vs $32.11B in Nov 2024)
- Estimated services imports (Nov 2025):$17.96B (vs $17.25B in Nov 2024)
That yields:
- Services trade surplus: about $17.9B (by calculation) [3]
- Total exports (goods + services):$73.99B
- Total imports (goods + services):$80.63B
- Overall trade deficit:$6.64B, down from $17.06B a year earlier—roughly the “61% fall” cited across reports. [4]
One important technical note for readers tracking month-to-month momentum: services numbers for November are estimates, since the latest services data released by the RBI at that point was for October. [5]
What powered the export surge: engineering, electronics, gems, pharma
India’s export rebound wasn’t driven by a single commodity windfall—it was broad-based, with several large categories posting strong gains.
The Commerce Ministry flagged these as major drivers of merchandise export growth in November 2025: engineering goods, electronic goods, gems & jewellery, drugs & pharmaceuticals, and petroleum products. [6]
Here’s how the biggest contributors moved year-on-year:
- Engineering goods: up to $11.01B from $8.90B
- Electronic goods: up to $4.81B from $3.46B
- Gems & jewellery: up to $2.64B from $2.07B
- Drugs & pharmaceuticals: up to $2.61B from $2.16B
- Petroleum products: up to $3.93B from $3.52B [7]
That mix matters for two reasons:
- It reduces dependence on any one market or product. Analysts pointed to ongoing diversification as a stabilizer for India’s export profile. [8]
- It aligns with the investment-led push in electronics manufacturing. The electronics jump—often linked to mobile phones and the broader supply chain—has increasingly been described as capacity-driven rather than a one-off spike. [9]
Imports cooled: gold, oil, and other big-ticket items pulled the deficit down
India’s trade deficit is as much an imports story as it is an exports story, and November brought a meaningful pullback in key import lines.
Reports highlighted a sharp drop in gold imports, along with declines in petroleum and some other commodities, helping compress the deficit. [10]
A few notable import moves cited in coverage:
- Gold imports fell steeply year-on-year (down about 59% to roughly $4.0B in one report). [11]
- Petroleum imports softened amid lower prices (and petroleum product export values still rose). [12]
The government’s own “underlying health” lens—often watched closely by economists—also showed strength: non-petroleum and non-gems & jewellery exports rose to $31.56B (from $26.35B a year earlier). [13]
“Trump tariffs” and the US factor: exports rebound despite 50% duties
The most politically charged subplot in the December 15 trade narrative is the US tariff regime—and the fact that India’s shipments to the US bounced back strongly in November.
- India’s merchandise exports to the US rose to about $6.92B in November, according to Reuters, and were up over 21% year-on-year. [14]
- Separate reporting put the figure near $6.98B, up 22.61% year-on-year. [15]
This rebound comes amid steep US tariffs of up to 50% on Indian goods, a central pressure point for exporters and for the rupee. [16]
Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal said India had “held fort” on exports to the US despite tariffs and indicated that both sides were engaged and close to finalising a “framework” agreement, while acknowledging the complexity around reciprocal tariff reductions and market-access issues. [17]
A new tariff flashpoint: rice “dumping” claims
As trade talks grind forward, another sensitive front has opened in agriculture.
On December 15, Reuters reported India pushing back against allegations of “dumping” rice in the US market after President Donald Trump suggested raising tariffs on Indian rice imports. Indian officials argued exports to the US are largely premium basmati, and said there was no clear prima facie case nor any known anti-dumping investigation at that stage. [18]
For India—one of the world’s largest rice exporters—any tariff escalation in agricultural items can quickly spill into domestic politics and broader trade negotiations.
China and other markets: diversification shows up in the numbers
Alongside the US, China emerged as a major highlight of the November export rebound:
- India’s exports to China were reported up about 90% to $2.2B in November, helped by stronger electronics and engineering shipments. [19]
Over the longer period, government data also points to growth in several destinations in April–November 2025 (year-on-year), including the US and China, along with Spain, the UAE, and Hong Kong—evidence of broader market expansion beyond a single corridor. [20]
Why markets care: the rupee, capital flows, and the current-account angle
Trade numbers feed directly into currency expectations, inflation dynamics, and investor sentiment—especially when tariffs complicate the outlook.
On December 15, Reuters reported the Indian rupee hitting a record low of 90.74 per dollar, with traders citing the extended uncertainty in US-India trade negotiations and sustained foreign outflows as key drags. The report also linked currency pressure to the impact of high US tariffs on India’s biggest export market. [21]
Economists also used the import/export swing to update current account expectations. One cited estimate suggested India’s current account deficit could widen to $20–24B in Q3 FY26, reflecting how volatile months (like October’s record goods deficit) still echo through quarterly balances even when a strong month like November arrives. [22]
Beyond trade: two other major business headlines tied to the day’s data cycle
The same news cycle that delivered November’s trade numbers also put two other India business and policy stories into focus—both featured prominently in the BusinessLine “Morning Report” episode dated December 16, 2025, which followed the Dec 15 developments. [23]
1) Rural jobs scheme overhaul: a bill to replace MGNREGA
A bill proposed by the government would revamp the rural jobs guarantee framework—raising guaranteed workdays and shifting emphasis toward infrastructure and climate resilience.
Reuters reported the draft legislation would increase guaranteed annual workdays from 100 to 125, while also proposing a rebranding that removes Mahatma Gandhi’s name—sparking political criticism. Budget allocation cited for the scheme was 860 billion rupees for the fiscal year ending March 2026. [24]
The BusinessLine morning report summary also flagged the story as a key agenda item, describing it as a proposal to replace MGNREGA with a new framework under the “Viksit Bharat Guarantee” branding. [25]
2) Investment move: MUFG and Shriram Finance
Foreign capital interest in India’s financial sector also made headlines.
Reuters cited a report that Japan’s Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) is in final talks to acquire a 20% stake in Shriram Finance for more than 500 billion yen (about $3.22B), with an announcement potentially expected later in the week (timing subject to change). [26]
BusinessLine’s morning report summary highlighted the same development as a “major investment move,” underlining how global banks continue to hunt growth in India amid slower expansion at home. [27]
What to watch next: revisions, negotiations, and sustainability of the export rebound
November’s numbers deliver a clear message: India can still post strong export growth even under tariff stress, especially when electronics, engineering, and pharma keep momentum and import spikes (like gold) cool off. [28]
But the next few checkpoints will determine whether this is a one-month snapback or something more durable:
- Services data revisions: November services figures are estimated and may be updated as RBI data is released. [29]
- US-India trade talks: officials have indicated a framework agreement could be close, but tariff lines—especially in politically sensitive sectors—remain the hard part. [30]
- Tariff spillovers: rice has become a flashpoint, and Mexico’s tariff move is another reminder that market access can change quickly across geographies. [31]
- Currency and capital flows: the rupee’s weakness underscores how trade uncertainty can spill into financial markets even when trade data itself improves. [32]
For now, December 15’s data release offers India a rare combination in one headline: exports surging, the deficit narrowing, and policy conversations shifting from damage control to deal-making—with the next round of tariff negotiations likely to decide how long the momentum lasts. [33]
References
1. www.pib.gov.in, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.pib.gov.in, 5. www.pib.gov.in, 6. www.pib.gov.in, 7. www.pib.gov.in, 8. www.livemint.com, 9. www.livemint.com, 10. www.business-standard.com, 11. www.business-standard.com, 12. www.business-standard.com, 13. www.pib.gov.in, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. m.economictimes.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. m.economictimes.com, 20. www.pib.gov.in, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.business-standard.com, 23. podcasts.apple.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. podcasts.apple.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. podcasts.apple.com, 28. www.pib.gov.in, 29. www.pib.gov.in, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.pib.gov.in
