Indian equities head into Tuesday’s session on the back foot. After a broad-based sell-off on Monday and fresh record weakness in the rupee, early indicators point to a cautious to negative start for the Nifty 50 and Sensex on 9 December 2025.
As of around 2:45 a.m. IST, GIFT Nifty futures were hovering near 25,950, down about 0.3–0.4%, signalling a weak opening for the cash market. [1] At the same time, global markets are treading water ahead of a closely watched U.S. Federal Reserve meeting, while domestic sentiment is digesting the RBI’s 25 bps repo rate cut to 5.25%, a new F&O pre-open session, and stock-specific shocks such as IndiGo and Bharat Electronics (BEL) tumbling on Monday. [2]
At a glance: Quick pre-open checklist for 9 December 2025
- GIFT Nifty: Around 25,950, indicating a soft start for Nifty 50. [3]
- Monday’s close: Nifty 50 at 25,960.55 (-0.86%), Sensex at 85,102.69 (-0.71%); all sectoral indices in the red, midcaps and smallcaps underperforming. [4]
- Key Nifty levels: Crucial support at 25,850–25,700; resistance zone at 26,100–26,200. [5]
- Flows: FIIs net sold roughly ₹650 crore on Monday while DIIs bought around ₹2,500 crore, cushioning the fall. [6]
- Rupee & bonds: Rupee closed near ₹90.07–90.11 per USD, close to record lows; 10-year bond yields around 6.55–6.57%. [7]
- Macro: RBI repo cut to 5.25% on 5 December; Reuters poll sees November CPI edging up but staying far below the 4% target. [8]
- Structure: First week with NSE’s 15-minute F&O pre-open session, plus a new margin rule that’s pinching brokers. [9]
- Stocks to watch: Physicswallah, Fujiyama Power Systems, Mahindra & Mahindra, L&T, Siemens, ICICI Bank, IndiGo, Welspun Corp, Aequs (IPO), among others. [10]
Below is a detailed breakdown of the cues that matter before the market opens.
1. How Indian markets closed on Monday, 8 December
Monday was a broad risk-off day on Dalal Street:
- The Nifty 50 fell 225.9 points (–0.86%) to 25,960.55, after slipping intraday to 25,892.25, breaking below the 26,000 mark. [11]
- The Sensex dropped about 610 points (–0.71%) to close near 85,102.69. [12]
- All sectoral indices ended in the red; midcap and smallcap indices underperformed, extending the recent under-the-surface correction. [13]
Technically, Nifty formed a long bearish candle on the daily chart, closing below short-term moving averages and the midline of its Bollinger Bands, with momentum indicators (RSI, MACD) turning bearish. This pattern signals emerging short-term weakness and rising caution after last week’s RBI-driven rebound. [14]
On the breadth side, decliners outpaced gainers sharply, with names like IndiGo, BEL, JSW Steel, Eternal, Shriram Finance among the steepest Nifty losers, while Tech Mahindra, Wipro, HDFC Life, HCL Tech and HDFC Bankmanaged to stay on the gainers’ list. [15]
2. GIFT Nifty and global cues point to a cautious, possibly negative open
GIFT Nifty signals weak start
Overnight and early-morning trends in the offshore derivatives market show:
- GIFT Nifty around 25,950, down roughly 0.3–0.4%, indicating a soft to negative open for the Nifty 50 cash index. [16]
Combined with Monday’s close just under 26,000, this implies the market could start the day near or slightly below Monday’s lows, keeping the spotlight firmly on key support bands.
Wall Street: near record highs but slipping ahead of Fed
On Monday in the U.S.:
- The S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq all ended modestly lower as investors waited for the Fed’s rate decision later this week, even though the indices remain close to record highs. [17]
- A tug-of-war is underway between AI and megacap tech optimism (e.g., IBM’s $11 billion Confluent acquisition, Carvana’s S&P 500 inclusion) and higher bond yields, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbing to about 4.18%. [18]
The key global story is the Fed meeting on 9–10 December (U.S. time). Markets are pricing in a third 25-bps rate cut this year, but are uncertain about the 2026 path. Several global brokerages, including Nomura, now expect a cut, with traders assigning a high probability to easing at this meeting. [19]
Asia: mixed trade, cautious tone
Across Asia, trade has been mixed:
- Equities in Hong Kong and some export-heavy markets are under pressure, while Korea and parts of mainland China show selective strength.
- A detailed regional read suggests investors are in wait-and-watch mode ahead of the Fed decision, with moves in Asian indices largely driven by U.S. yields, dollar strength and Chinese data flow. [20]
Takeaway for India: Global cues aren’t outright bearish, but they lack strong positive momentum. With U.S. stocks pausing near record highs, Asia mixed, and the Fed looming, India is likely to mirror this cautious tone rather than stage an aggressive rebound at the open.
3. Nifty and Bank Nifty: key technical levels to watch today
Nifty 50: defending the 25,850–25,700 ‘make-or-break’ band
Multiple brokerages highlight a tightly clustered support zone:
- Angel One and Bajaj Broking flag 25,850–25,700 as a critical support area, where:
- A rising trendline connecting recent higher bottoms converges, and
- The 50-day EMA and an earlier bullish gap (12 November) intersect. [21]
- Moneycontrol’s trade setup pegs 25,840 as immediate support, cautioning that a break could drag the index toward 25,700 and potentially negate the broader higher-high, higher-low structure. Resistance is seen at 26,100–26,200. [22]
Pivot-based levels for Nifty 50 (approximate):
- Resistance: 26,120, 26,188, 26,297
- Support: 25,901, 25,833, 25,724 [23]
The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) dropping to around 0.64 (from above 1) and the India VIX jumping nearly 8% to ~11.1suggest rising caution and an increase in short positions in index derivatives. [24]
What this means:
If Nifty holds above 25,850–25,900 at the open, the market may attempt a sideways consolidation with bounces toward 26,100–26,200. A decisive break below 25,700, however, would reinforce the bearish candle from Monday and open the door to deeper downside in the short term.
Bank Nifty: watching 59,000 and 58,600
For Bank Nifty, analysts point to:
- Support at 59,000–58,800 and deeper short-term support at 58,200–58,600, a zone that combines recent swing lows and a major breakout area. [25]
- Resistance at 59,500–59,800 initially, with a move above last week’s high of 60,114 opening upside toward 60,400–61,000. [26]
The index printed a bearish candlestick with a long lower shadow, signalling loss of momentum after its post-RBI rally, but it still defended its 20-day EMA and the midline of Bollinger Bands on a closing basis. [27]
For traders: Banking stocks may remain volatile but not outright broken as long as Bank Nifty holds above 58,600. Fresh weakness below that could intensify selling pressure in PSU and large private banks.
4. Flows, rupee and bonds: macro undercurrent still tricky
FIIs continue to sell, DIIs absorb the hit
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs/FIIs) have resumed net selling:
- Provisional exchange data show FIIs net sold around ₹650 crore on Monday, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought roughly ₹2,500 crore, helping cushion the fall in benchmark indices. [28]
This pattern—FII selling offset by DII buying—has been visible for several sessions and remains a key driver of intraday volatility, especially in large-cap financials and defensives.
Rupee at or near record lows, RBI still relaxed
On the currency front:
- The rupee extended its losing streak and closed around ₹90.07–90.11 per U.S. dollar on Monday, not far from last week’s record low (beyond ₹90.2). [29]
- A Reuters piece notes the rupee is expected to stay under pressure amid weak trade and portfolio flows, even after the recent RBI rate cut; the central bank has so far signalled comfort with current FX levels, focusing instead on growth and liquidity. [30]
Bond yields: modest uptick after the policy
- India’s 10-year government bond yield is trading around 6.55–6.57%, slightly higher compared with last week’s post-policy levels, as markets digest the RBI’s dovish turn and global yield moves. [31]
Why this matters for equities:
A weak rupee and slightly higher yields put pressure on imported-inflation-sensitive sectors (like airlines and oil marketing companies) and keep global investors cautious on India near-term, even as domestic liquidity remains supportive.
5. RBI rate cut, inflation watch and macro calendar
The macro backdrop has shifted meaningfully in the past few days:
- On 5 December 2025, the RBI cut the repo rate by 25 bps to 5.25%, bringing total cuts this year to about 125 bps, citing strong growth but very low inflation and the need to support demand. [32]
- Coverage of the policy decision highlights that the central bank maintained a neutral stance, upgraded its GDP outlook, and announced liquidity measures, indicating it remains comfortable easing policy further if inflation stays benign. [33]
On inflation:
- A new Reuters poll of economists suggests November CPI likely rose to around 0.7% y/y from 0.25% in October—still near multi-year lows and well below the 4% target for a tenth consecutive month. [34]
Key upcoming macro triggers for the week:
- India CPI (November) – due 12 December, likely to confirm whether ultra-low inflation is persisting. [35]
- U.S. Fed decision – late 11 December (India time), with markets pricing in a quarter-point cut but closely watching guidance for 2026. [36]
For stock markets, this combination—lower domestic rates, a weak rupee, and global central-bank uncertainty—can create cross-currents: rate-sensitive pockets like banks, NBFCs and real estate may see intermittent buying, while exporters and dollar earners benefit from the currency move, but FII flows remain choppy.
6. New F&O pre-open session: what changes at 9:00 a.m.
This week is the first full week with the NSE’s new pre-open session for equity derivatives, a structural change that will increasingly shape the opening moves in Nifty and Bank Nifty futures.
How the new F&O pre-open works
According to NSE communications and media summaries: [37]
- The session runs daily from 9:00 a.m. to 9:15 a.m. for index and single-stock futures (near-month contracts, and next-month during the last five days before expiry).
- It follows a call auction structure in three phases:
- Order Entry (9:00–9:08): traders can place, modify or cancel orders. The system randomly closes this phase between the 7th–8th minute.
- Order Matching & Trade Confirmation (9:08–9:12): orders are matched at an equilibrium price; no fresh orders or changes allowed.
- Buffer (9:12–9:15): transition to the regular trading session.
- Both market and limit orders are allowed, but stop-loss and IOC orders are not permitted in this window.
The idea is to smooth “gap” moves at the open, improve price discovery, and reduce freak prints in index and stock futures.
Margin rule catches brokers off guard
However, the very first session on Monday threw up a major operational twist:
- Just before the F&O pre-open went live, NSE informed brokers that client margins would be blocked upfront during the 9:00–9:08 window—a reversal of normal market practice where trades are executed first and margins are blocked afterwards. [38]
- Several smaller brokers say the last-minute change strains their capital efficiency and makes it harder to accommodate aggressive retail positioning, even though the block lasts only around 10 minutes.
- Larger brokers, with deeper capital buffers and stronger risk systems, seem better able to handle the new rule.
Despite these hiccups, many market participants believe the pre-open will, over time, reduce opening volatility and provide a clearer view of true demand–supply in index futures. [39]
For today: Expect traders to continue experimenting with order placement during the F&O pre-open, and be aware that some early moves in futures might be less liquid and more sensitive to order imbalances than usual.
7. Stocks and sectors to watch on 9 December
7.1 IndiGo and aviation: crisis under regulatory glare
InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo) remains the single most important stock-specific story:
- IndiGo shares dropped over 8–9% on Monday, extending their decline to about 15% so far in December, as a wave of flight cancellations and operational disruptions triggered public outrage and regulatory scrutiny. [40]
- The DGCA has reportedly flagged planning lapses and demanded a response from the airline’s management, while MoCA has pushed for timely refunds and fare discipline. Ratings agency commentary suggests the episode is credit negative given potential revenue loss, refunds and possible penalties. [41]
Given IndiGo’s heavy weight in travel & tourism themes and its role as a proxy for domestic air travel, the stock is likely to remain volatile and continue influencing sentiment in the broader aviation and hospitality space.
7.2 PSU defence and industrials: BEL and peers under pressure
Bharat Electronics (BEL) was among the sharpest drags on Monday:
- BEL’s share price fell around 5% during the session, adding to recent underperformance in select PSU and defence names. [42]
Traders will be watching whether this is a healthy consolidation after a strong multi-quarter rally, or the start of a deeper de-rating in the broader defence PSU basket.
7.3 ‘Stocks to Watch’ list: earnings, deals and corporate actions
Moneycontrol’s pre-open scan highlights a long list of stocks in focus today, driven by fresh numbers, corporate actions and deals: [43]
- Physicswallah – Q2 results show profit up ~70% YoY and revenue up over 26%, indicating strong traction in its edtech business.
- Fujiyama Power Systems – Q2 profit nearly doubled (~97% YoY) with revenue up about 73%, putting the company on traders’ radar in the power and renewables ecosystem.
- Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) – November auto sales saw volume growth of ~19.6% YoY, with higher production and exports; watch for follow-through in autos after Monday’s broad sell-off.
- Larsen & Toubro (L&T) – Board has approved transferring its realty business to a wholly owned subsidiary via a slump sale Scheme of Arrangement, a step toward simplifying the conglomerate structure.
- Siemens India – Board approved the sale of its Low Voltage Motors and Geared Motors businesses to Innomotics India for an enterprise value of about ₹2,200 crore on a cash-free, debt-free basis.
- ICICI Bank – The bank will buy a 2% stake in ICICI Prudential AMC from Prudential Corporation Holdings for ₹2,140 crore, further consolidating its control of the AMC.
- InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo) – Under scrutiny after the disruptions; Moody’s commentary underscores the financial and reputational risks.
- Welspun Corp, Dredging Corporation of India, Neochem Bio Solutions, Helloji Holidays – In focus on mid-cap and small-cap radars due to various order wins, listings or corporate developments.
7.4 IPO radar: Aequs listing countdown
On the primary market side, Aequs—a contract manufacturing player—remains in the spotlight: [44]
- The IPO, open from 3–5 December, saw strong subscription across investor categories.
- Allotment was scheduled for 8 December, with shares expected to be credited to demat accounts on 9 December.
- Listing on NSE and BSE is planned for 10 December.
Secondary-market price action today could be influenced by grey-market premium chatter, allotment status checks and rotation into other IPO names.
8. Oil, global commodities and their impact on India
Lower crude oil prices are one of the few positives for India right now:
- Brent/WTI crude has slipped to the high-$50s per barrel region (around $58.8, down more than 2% on Monday), amid concerns about global growth and still-ample supply. [45]
For India, a large net importer of crude, this provides a partial offset to the weak rupee, easing some pressure on:
- Oil marketing companies (OMCs)
- Aviation (fuel costs), though IndiGo’s current problems are more operational and regulatory than purely fuel-driven
- Inflation expectations, especially for transport and logistics
If crude stays soft and the rupee stabilises, markets may start to price in a slightly better margin outlook for fuel-intensive sectors, though this could be overshadowed in the very near term by risk-off sentiment.
9. How traders may position for the day (not investment advice)
Putting all of the above together, the base case heading into the 9 December session is:
- Opening tone: Slightly negative to flat, with GIFT Nifty indicating a dip below Monday’s close but still within Monday’s intraday range. [46]
- Battleground zones:
- Nifty 50: 25,900–25,700 support, 26,100–26,200 resistance
- Bank Nifty: 59,000–58,800 support, 59,500–59,800 resistance [47]
- What could help the bulls:
- Nifty holding firmly above 25,850–25,900 and staging intraday recoveries toward 26,100+
- Easing in IndiGo/BEL selling pressure and stability in PSU/defence baskets
- Signs of FII selling slowing, with DIIs continuing to buy heavily
- What could hurt sentiment further:
- A clean break below 25,700 on Nifty or 58,600 on Bank Nifty
- Another wave of negative headlines around IndiGo or other systemically important stocks
- Fresh rupee weakness beyond recent record lows, especially if accompanied by FII outflows and higher U.S. yields
Given the RBI’s dovish shift, low inflation, and the looming Fed decision, markets are likely to stay data- and headline-driven over the next 48 hours, with elevated intraday swings around macro announcements and any surprise in global risk sentiment.
Important note
This article is an informational overview of market conditions as of the evening of 8 December and early morning of 9 December 2025 based on publicly available data. Market levels, stock prices and macro numbers can change rapidly once trading begins. Nothing here is investment, tax or legal advice. Please consult a registered financial adviser before making trading or investment decisions.
References
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