Mumbai/New Delhi, December 16, 2025: Indian equities ended sharply lower on Tuesday as a fresh record low in the rupee, continued foreign selling, and uncertainty around the India–US trade deal kept risk appetite in check. The headline indices trimmed part of their intraday losses, but the tone remained defensive across sectors, with metals, private banks and IT among the key drags.
Market close: Sensex, Nifty end over 0.6% lower
The BSE Sensex closed at 84,679.86, down 533.50 points (–0.63%), while the NSE Nifty 50 settled near 25,860 (–0.64%), ending the session below the psychologically important 25,900 mark. [1]
Intraday, the Sensex fell to around 84,718, and Nifty dipped below 25,900, before paring losses into the close. [2]
In the broader market, the pressure was visible too: mid- and small-cap gauges declined, reflecting cautious positioning beyond the large-cap benchmarks. [3]
The big driver: Rupee breaks past 91 per dollar amid outflows and trade stalemate
The rupee was the day’s headline risk factor.
- The Indian rupee breached 91 per US dollar for the first time, sliding to a fresh record low amid hedging demand and portfolio outflows, with the India–US trade stalemate still weighing on sentiment. [4]
- Reuters reported the currency fell to 91.0750 (record low), extending a multi-session slide. [5]
Why it mattered for equities: a weakening currency tends to raise near-term uncertainty for foreign investors (who measure returns in dollars), and it can also amplify concerns about sustained capital outflows—especially when negotiations with a key trading partner remain unresolved.
Foreign flows: FPIs continue selling streak as markets wait for India–US trade clarity
Foreign flows stayed firmly in focus throughout the day.
Reuters noted that foreign portfolio investors sold ₹14.68 billion worth of shares on Monday (provisional data), marking a seventh straight session of selling—a trend that has kept Dalal Street’s rallies shallow since the indices hit record highs on December 1. [6]
On the India–US trade front, the immediate issue wasn’t just whether a framework is close—but when it could translate into a market-moving breakthrough. Reuters flagged that while India’s trade secretary said the two sides were close to a “framework deal,” no timeline was provided, and India’s chief economic advisor recently indicated a deal may only come by March. [7]
Global cues: Risk-off mood ahead of key US jobs data
Global sentiment didn’t provide much support either.
Reuters reported that Asia-Pacific equities (ex-Japan) were down, weighed by broader risk aversion and positioning ahead of crucial US employment data—a release investors are watching closely for implications on the rate path. [8]
The market logic is straightforward: if US data reinforces expectations of easier policy, emerging markets can benefit via improved risk appetite and flows. But in sessions like today, traders often reduce exposure first—especially with the rupee under pressure.
Macro update: India’s flash PMI cools to a 10-month low
While the market’s primary attention was on currency and flows, macro data also entered the conversation.
India’s HSBC Flash Composite PMI slipped to 58.9 in December (from 59.7 in November), the lowest since February, according to S&P Global data cited by Reuters—still firmly in expansion territory, but signaling moderation as 2025 ends. [9]
The report highlighted softer growth in new orders and a stall in hiring momentum, which can nudge market expectations around demand-sensitive pockets of the economy. [10]
Sector check: Realty, metals, private banks and IT lead declines; FMCG shows resilience
By the afternoon, Mint reported that almost all NSE sectoral indices were in the red, with realty, private banks, metals and IT among the worst hit, while FMCG showed relative resilience. [11]
The day’s pattern fit a familiar risk-off playbook:
- Rate- and cycle-sensitive sectors underperform when flows and macro uncertainty rise.
- Pockets seen as more defensive (like select consumer staples) can hold up better.
Stocks in focus: Axis Bank, Airtel, IndusInd, and others
Several single-stock developments contributed to the tape:
- Axis Bank was under pressure; The Economic Times flagged a sharp move after a brokerage view, noting the stock “tumbled” (intraday) as Citi Research reiterated a neutral stance. [12]
- Bharti Airtel provided some support during the session; Informist noted Airtel rose after Morgan Stanley raised its target price, helping offset declines elsewhere. [13]
- IndusInd Bank and the broader banking space were also in focus after the RBI approved HDFC Bank group entities to acquire up to a 9.5% stake in IndusInd Bank. [14]
Meanwhile, Reuters also pointed to Cello World as an early mover after coverage initiation with a “sell” rating. [15]
IPO and primary market pulse: ICICI Pru AMC, KSH International, and Zepto chatter
Even as secondary markets weakened, the primary market remained active:
- The Economic Times reported strong QIB participation in the ICICI Prudential AMC IPO, with the issue showing double-digit overall subscription and notably higher institutional demand. [16]
- KSH International’s IPO opened on December 16, with the company aiming to raise ₹710 crore (fresh issue plus OFS), per ET’s IPO update. [17]
- ET also flagged that quick-commerce firm Zepto was reportedly preparing an India IPO filing that could come as soon as next week (market talk that adds to the “IPO pipeline” narrative investors are tracking). [18]
Technical view and forecasts for Nifty: key supports, resistances, and expiry-day positioning
Market forecasts published on December 16 leaned heavily toward range-bound trade, with a clear cluster of levels repeated across technical commentaries.
Key Nifty levels to watch (from multiple 16 Dec notes)
- Moneycontrol highlighted 26,000–26,050 as a crucial zone, with 25,900 as immediate support and 25,700 as the next key support. [19]
- Business Today cited an outlook that Nifty may stay range-bound between 25,900 and 26,100, with resistance near 26,050 and a decisive move outside the band needed for direction. [20]
- Mint’s pre-market setup also referenced 25,900–25,850 as support and 26,150–26,200 as resistance. [21]
Options/expiry data: where the market “pinned” today
With 16 December being an expiry day, derivatives positioning was a big part of the day’s narrative.
Upstox’ trade setup noted:
- Max Call OI at 26,200 (suggesting resistance)
- Max Put OI at 25,900 (suggesting support)
—pointing to a narrow expiry range unless a fresh trigger hit the tape. [22]
Bank Nifty levels
Moneycontrol’s trading plan framed 59,500 as an important level for Bank Nifty to reclaim on a closing basis, with 59,000 as near support during consolidation. [23]
What to watch next: triggers for the next session (Dec 17)
With the benchmarks now in a cautious consolidation phase, traders will likely track a familiar set of near-term catalysts:
- Rupee direction and RBI cues
The rupee’s move past 91 has become a key sentiment gauge for equity risk-taking. [24] - FII flow trend
Any reversal (or acceleration) in foreign selling could quickly change the day-to-day tone, especially in banks and index heavyweights. [25] - India–US trade headlines
The market is still highly sensitive to incremental updates on timing and scope, with commentary suggesting a deal could slip into 2026. [26] - US jobs data and global risk appetite
With global investors watching labour-market prints to refine rate expectations, emerging-market sentiment may remain headline-driven. [27] - Technical levels: 25,900 then 25,700 on the downside; 26,050–26,100 and 26,200 on the upside
Multiple desks flagged these zones, making them likely “decision points” for the next directional attempt. [28]
Note: This article summarises market moves and published analyses from December 16, 2025, and is not investment advice.
References
1. www.livemint.com, 2. www.livemint.com, 3. www.livemint.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.livemint.com, 12. m.economictimes.com, 13. informistmedia.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. m.economictimes.com, 17. m.economictimes.com, 18. m.economictimes.com, 19. www.moneycontrol.com, 20. www.businesstoday.in, 21. www.livemint.com, 22. upstox.com, 23. www.moneycontrol.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.moneycontrol.com
