India’s stock market is shut today, Thursday, 25 December 2025, as the BSE and NSE observe Christmas as a trading holiday—marking the final scheduled market holiday of calendar year 2025. Trading will resume on Friday, 26 December 2025, with investors returning to a market that has been range-bound near record highs, supported by domestic flows, while currency moves and central-bank liquidity steps remain key swing factors. [1]
Even with Dalal Street closed, the market conversation is active: Wednesday’s pre-holiday session saw modest profit-taking, India VIX remains at historically low levels, and the Reserve Bank of India’s latest liquidity injection plan has boosted sentiment in bonds—often a supportive backdrop for rate-sensitive equities. Meanwhile, the rupee’s 2025 slide (and what it means for 2026) is shaping forecasts for foreign flows and risk appetite. [2]
Is the Indian stock market open today?
No. The BSE and NSE are closed today (25 December 2025) for Christmas.
According to exchange calendars and market holiday notices, there is no trading today in:
- Equities
- Equity derivatives (F&O)
- Currency derivatives and interest rate derivatives
- SLB (Securities Lending & Borrowing) and ETFs
Clearing and settlement activities resume on the next trading day. [3]
India’s commodity markets are also shut today. MCX is closed for both its morning and evening sessions, and NCDEX trading is closed as well. [4]
When does trading resume?
Normal trading in equities will resume on Friday, 26 December 2025, during regular market hours (9:15 AM to 3:30 PM IST). [5]
Sensex, Nifty recap: Where the market ended before the Christmas break
In the last trading session before the holiday (Wednesday, 24 December 2025), benchmark indices ended slightly lower in a subdued, pre-holiday tape:
- Sensex: 85,408.70, down 116.14 points (-0.14%)
- Nifty 50: 26,142.10, down 35.05 points (-0.13%)
- Nifty Bank: 59,183.60, down about 0.20%
Broader markets were mixed, with the Nifty Smallcap 100 edging higher while the Nifty Midcap 100 slipped. [6]
Sectorally, gains were selective—ET Now reported only a few sectoral indices closing in the green, while profit-taking hit several heavyweights into the holiday. [7]
A notable feature of the setup is volatility (or the lack of it). India VIX fell to fresh closing lows around the holiday week, a sign of complacency that can sometimes precede sharp, sudden moves—especially when liquidity is thin. [8]
Global cues today: Thin holiday trading, muted liquidity
Internationally, most global markets are closed for Christmas, and Asian trade is thin. In holiday conditions, price moves can look larger than the underlying conviction because participation is lower. [9]
That thin-liquidity environment matters for India because Friday’s session (26 December) can still see reduced institutional activity, especially if global desks return gradually into the year-end. Business Standard also flagged that liquidity may remain thin as markets reopen. [10]
RBI liquidity injection: Why bond-market cheer matters for equities
One of the most market-relevant developments heading into the year-end is the RBI’s latest plan to inject up to ₹2.90 trillion (₹2.90 lakh crore) through a combination of government bond purchases and FX swaps, scheduled over four weeks starting 29 December. [11]
Reuters reported the RBI will:
- Buy bonds worth ₹2 trillion, and
- Conduct a $10 billion dollar-rupee swap (three-year tenor). [12]
The immediate market reaction was visible in bonds: Reuters noted India’s 10-year benchmark yield dropped to about 6.55%, sharply lower versus recent highs, reinforcing expectations that yields could stay structurally lower into the end of the financial year. [13]
Why equity investors care:
- Easier system liquidity can support credit growth and rate-sensitive sectors (banks, autos, real estate).
- Lower yields can improve mark-to-market outcomes for bank bond books and help monetary transmission.
- At the margin, “risk-free” alternatives become less attractive versus equities when yields ease. [14]
Rupee watch: “Hidden stability” behind a weaker INR, but trade policy remains a swing factor
Currency remains one of the most important crosswinds for India equities because it influences:
- Foreign portfolio returns (FII/FPI inflows/outflows)
- Imported inflation and margin pressure for import-heavy sectors
- The earnings outlook for exporters (IT services, pharma, select industrials)
On 25 December, The Financial Express noted the rupee breached the 90-per-dollar mark in December 2025 and described a roughly 4.8% year-to-date decline, driven more by India-specific dynamics such as subdued capital inflows and US trade tariffs on Indian exports, rather than classic global-shock triggers like a spike in crude oil. [15]
A parallel year-ahead analysis carried by Moneycontrol (via TradingView) reported the rupee touched a record low near ₹91.08 per dollar in mid-December, and was trading around ₹89.7 per dollar on 24 December, while also highlighting that several research houses see the rupee potentially exiting its depreciating phase in 2026—though progress on an India–US trade deal is repeatedly flagged as a key variable. [16]
Flows & positioning: Record FPI selling, domestic money cushions Dalal Street
If 2025 had one defining market pattern, it was the tug-of-war between foreign selling and domestic buying.
A Business Standard year-ender report said:
- FPIs sold equities worth ₹1.51 trillion in 2025 (highest ever for a calendar year), while
- Domestic mutual funds infused ₹4.84 trillion amid strong SIP-led inflows. [17]
The same report noted the rupee’s weakness also weighed on foreign flows and described the INR as the worst-performing currency in Asia in 2025, with depreciation of about 4.73% versus the US dollar. [18]
Importantly for the “India stock market outlook” narrative into 2026, Business Standard said analysts see potential for foreign flows to turn more constructive if domestic rates ease, inflation stays stable, and earnings visibility improves—while still emphasizing that the rupee trajectory and valuation discipline will matter. [19]
Nifty forecast and technical levels for the next session (26 December 2025)
With no trading today, the most actionable “India stock market forecast” inputs are technical ranges and positioning signals going into Friday.
Moneycontrol’s technical view (published ahead of the holiday) highlighted:
- Key support: 26,000 on Nifty
- Resistance band (from options data): roughly 26,200–26,500
- A “breather” pattern after a sharp rise, with rebound hopes intact as long as 26,000 holds. [20]
ET Now’s preview for Friday echoed a similar framework, citing immediate support around the low-26,000s and resistance in the 26,240–26,330 neighborhood, while also describing the broader trend as still constructive (higher-top, higher-bottom structure). [21]
The Economic Times’ chart-focused analysis also framed the near-term as a consolidation phase, suggesting Nifty could hold within a range roughly 26,000–26,350 while the broader uptrend remains intact unless deeper supports are breached. [22]
What this means in plain terms:
If Nifty opens Friday in a quiet, low-volume tape (a common year-end pattern), traders will likely watch 26,000 as the “line in the sand” and look for confirmation that the index can reclaim and hold above the low-26,200s before projecting another attempt toward recent highs.
2026 outlook: “Quality and selectivity” replaces broad-based momentum
Several 25 December outlook pieces converged on the same idea: 2026 could reward earnings visibility and valuation discipline more than blanket risk-on positioning.
A Business Standard report on Motilal Oswal’s outlook said:
- Nifty is up close to ~10% in 2025 and trading near highs, but the mood is more measured. [23]
- Large caps appear relatively better valued: Nifty-50 at about 21.5x one-year forward P/E, close to its long-period average, while mid- and small-caps carry materially higher valuation premiums. [24]
- Sector preferences tilt toward financials, consumption-linked names, industrials/capex themes, and a medium-term constructive stance on IT services and healthcare—with stock selection emphasized. [25]
Business Today’s 25 December market outlook added that benchmarks remained near record highs, noting that Sensex and Nifty hit record peaks earlier in December (Dec 1), while also framing 2026 optimism around growth, policy support and potential rate-easing tailwinds. [26]
IPO pipeline: A major 2026 narrative that can shape liquidity and sentiment
For investors tracking “India stock market news” beyond daily index moves, the primary market outlook is becoming a central storyline—because large IPOs can absorb liquidity, influence sector leadership, and drive rotations.
Two major 25 December reports stood out:
1) India’s IPO boom and the “new normal”
Business Standard reported that nearly ₹3.4 trillion was mobilised through mainboard IPOs over the last two years (2024–25), and that bankers increasingly see ₹1.5–2 trillion of annual fundraising as the new normal—supported by domestic liquidity and retail participation. [27]
2) The 2026 mega-pipeline
The Economic Times reported that 190+ companies are either approved or awaiting SEBI clearance, targeting fundraising of over ₹2.5 lakh crore through IPOs in 2026—84 already approved (around ₹1.14 lakh crore) and 108 awaiting approval (around ₹1.46 lakh crore). [28]
For secondary-market investors, the implication is straightforward: a heavier IPO calendar can create periodic “liquidity speed bumps,” but it can also broaden the investable universe—especially if listing quality remains strong and domestic flows remain steady.
What investors will watch when markets reopen on Friday (26 December)
With today’s holiday pause acting as a reset, Friday’s session is likely to be driven by a short list of triggers:
- Holiday-thin global liquidity: A quiet global tape can still produce outsized swings; volumes may remain light into the year-end. [29]
- RBI liquidity actions: Bond yields and systemic liquidity expectations can influence banks and rate sensitives. [30]
- USD/INR direction: Rupee stability (or fresh weakness) can quickly change the tone for foreign flows and exporters. [31]
- Positioning around key Nifty levels: Watch 26,000 support and the 26,200–26,500 resistance zone highlighted by technical and derivatives data. [32]
- Year-end fund flows: The market’s 2025 story—FPI selling offset by domestic inflows—remains the strategic backdrop heading into 2026. [33]
Bottom line: A holiday pause, not a pause in the story
The India stock market today is closed, but the setup heading into the final trading stretch of 2025 is anything but quiet: benchmarks remain close to record territory, volatility gauges are near historic lows, the RBI is stepping up liquidity support, and the rupee’s path is central to 2026 flow forecasts. [34]
As trading resumes on 26 December, investors will be weighing a technically constructive—but consolidation-prone—index setup against macro crosswinds (currency and global trade policy) and a pipeline of capital-market activity that could define the rhythm of 2026. [35]
References
1. www.business-standard.com, 2. www.moneycontrol.com, 3. www.business-standard.com, 4. www.business-standard.com, 5. www.business-standard.com, 6. www.business-standard.com, 7. www.etnownews.com, 8. www.moneycontrol.com, 9. apnews.com, 10. www.business-standard.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.financialexpress.com, 16. www.tradingview.com, 17. www.business-standard.com, 18. www.business-standard.com, 19. www.business-standard.com, 20. www.moneycontrol.com, 21. www.etnownews.com, 22. m.economictimes.com, 23. www.business-standard.com, 24. www.business-standard.com, 25. www.business-standard.com, 26. www.businesstoday.in, 27. www.business-standard.com, 28. m.economictimes.com, 29. apnews.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.financialexpress.com, 32. www.moneycontrol.com, 33. www.business-standard.com, 34. www.business-standard.com, 35. www.moneycontrol.com
