India’s stock market heads into Monday’s session at an interesting crossroads: benchmark indices are at record highs, the rupee has just broken 90 per dollar, the RBI has delivered a surprise rate cut, and derivatives trading is about to change structurally with a new F&O pre‑open session kicking in from December 8. On top of that, it’s a packed IPO week and a crucial US Federal Reserve meeting is just days away.
Here’s a comprehensive look at what you need to know before markets open on Monday, 8 December 2025.
Note: This article is for information and education only, not investment advice. Please consult a qualified advisor before acting on any ideas.
1. Where the Market Stands After Friday’s RBI-Fuelled Rally
On Friday, 5 December 2025, Indian equities rallied after the Reserve Bank of India unexpectedly cut the repo rate by 25 bps to 5.25%, while maintaining a neutral stance. [1]
- Sensex closed at 85,712.37, up 447.05 points (0.52%).
- Nifty 50 settled at 26,186.45, up 152.70 points (0.59%), firmly above the psychologically important 26,000 mark. [2]
Sector and breadth highlights:
- PSU banks led the gains, with Nifty PSU Bank up about 1.5%, followed by strength in Banking, Auto, IT, Metals, Realty, Oil & Gas and Chemicals. [3]
- Media, Pharma, Consumer Durables and FMCG ended in the red, suggesting some rotation out of defensives and consumption. [4]
- In the broader market, Nifty Midcap rose 0.49% while Nifty Smallcap slipped 0.57%, reflecting selective risk‑taking. [5]
For the week, benchmark indices were essentially flat — the Sensex added just 5.7 points while the Nifty slipped 16.5 points, indicating a consolidating market despite Friday’s RBI‑powered bounce. [6]
2. Big Structural Change From Monday: F&O Gets a 15-Minute Pre‑Open
The single biggest micro-structure change you must be aware of for Monday is the new pre‑open session in equity derivatives (F&O) on both NSE and BSE.
From 8 December 2025, the National Stock Exchange will run a 15‑minute pre‑open call auction for index and stock futures in the equity derivatives segment, mirroring the mechanism already used in the cash market. [7]
New F&O pre‑open timings (NSE, from Dec 8): [8]
- 9:00 – 9:08 am – Order entry/modify/cancel (no trades execute)
- 9:08 – 9:12 am – Order matching and equilibrium price discovery
- 9:12 – 9:15 am – Buffer / system stabilisation
- 9:15 am – Regular F&O trading starts as usual
Why this matters for Monday and beyond:
- The first few minutes of F&O trade have traditionally been highly volatile, driven by overnight global cues, macro surprises and aggressive FII/DII positioning. [9]
- The call auction aims to smoothen opening volatility, improve price discovery, and reduce arbitrary gap‑ups/gap‑downs. [10]
- Traders who were used to firing market orders at 9:15 will now need to plan their orders during 9:00–9:08, especially in index futures like Nifty and Bank Nifty. [11]
If you’re an active derivatives trader, Monday is not a normal day: your execution habits at the open must adapt to this pre‑open window.
3. Global Cues: Wall Street Up, Fed Cut Expectations High
On Friday, 5 December, Wall Street closed with modest gains as fresh data on US consumer spending and inflation kept expectations of another Federal Reserve rate cut next week intact. [12]
- Dow Jones: +0.22%
- S&P 500: +0.19%
- Nasdaq Composite: +0.31%, with communication services leading sector gains and the S&P 500 hovering less than 1% below its all‑time high. [13]
The market is currently pricing in ~87% probability of a 25 bps cut at the Fed’s December meeting, according to CME FedWatch, keeping global risk sentiment constructive. [14]
In Asia, stocks have had a strong year, with MSCI’s Asia ex‑Japan index up over 25% year‑to‑date, helped by reform-driven rerating in markets like Japan, South Korea and China. [15]
For the week starting December 8, Indian analysts note that global flows and Fed guidance will be decisive for emerging markets, including India, as investors weigh currency pressures and relative valuations. [16]
Takeaway for Monday:
Global cues into the weekend are mildly risk‑on, but markets are approaching key central bank events, so big directional bets may wait for the Fed decision later in the week.
4. Macro Calendar: Fed Meeting and India’s CPI in Focus
According to weekend commentary, two macro events will dominate market psychology this week: [17]
- US Federal Reserve policy meeting (December 9–10, 2025)
- Investors are not just watching the rate decision, but especially the Fed’s forward guidance on how many more cuts might follow in 2026.
- Any hawkish surprise or pushback against market expectations could trigger risk‑off moves in equities globally.
- India’s CPI inflation print (December 12, 2025)
- Domestic markets will scrutinise whether headline inflation stays comfortably within the target band after the RBI’s latest rate cut.
- A benign print would support the “Goldilocks” narrative of strong growth plus subdued inflation that RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra emphasised at the policy press conference. [18]
Analysts also highlight foreign fund flows and rupee behaviour as key macro variables this week, especially after the currency’s sharp slide (more on that next). [19]
5. Rupee at Record Lows, Bonds Steady: A Mixed Macro Backdrop
Rupee breaches 90 per dollar
The Indian rupee closed last week at record lows, having slipped past 90 per US dollar:
- On 3 December, USD/INR broke 90, closing near 90.19, making the rupee Asia’s worst‑performing currency in 2025, down over 5% year‑to‑date. [20]
- On 4 December, the rupee weakened further to an intraday low of 90.43, its fastest ₹5 slide (from 85 to 90) in under a year, driven by FPI outflows, a record trade deficit and a strong dollar. [21]
The Indian Express notes that merchandise exports have contracted sharply while imports — especially gold — have surged, pushing the trade deficit higher and adding pressure on the currency. [22]
A report from MUFG Research after the RBI meeting expects USD/INR to “rise modestly above 90” over time, targeting around 90.80 by the September 2026 quarter, assuming a US–India trade deal eventually reduces punitive tariffs. [23]
Equity implication:
- A weaker rupee typically supports IT and export-driven sectors, but hurts import‑intensive industries (oil marketing, chemicals, electronics, autos with high imported content) by raising input costs.
- Persistent rupee weakness can make foreign investors nervous, but it also makes Indian assets cheaper in dollar terms, potentially drawing opportunistic inflows if valuations turn attractive.
Bond yields anchored after RBI cut
Despite rupee pressure, Indian bond yields remain relatively contained:
- CCIL’s Tenorwise Indicative Yields show the benchmark 10‑year G‑Sec (6.33% GS 2035) trading around 6.49% as of 5 December, with shorter-dated paper closer to 5.5–5.6%. [24]
The RBI’s 25 bps rate cut plus liquidity injections — including OMOs and a 3‑year FX buy/sell swap — have eased funding conditions and nudged yields slightly lower, even as the central bank stays “modestly dovish” and tolerant of some rupee weakness. [25]
Equity implication:
- Lower bond yields and a neutral stance support rate‑sensitive spaces like banks, NBFCs, autos and real estate.
- But the rupee slide and widening external deficit mean markets will be quick to punish any sign of inflation slippage or further deterioration in flows.
6. GIFT Nifty, Volatility and Flows: Monday’s Opening Tone
Derivative signals going into Monday’s trade are constructive but cautious:
- GIFT Nifty was quoting around 26,332, only modestly higher than Nifty’s Friday close of 26,186, suggesting a subdued to mildly positive open. [26]
- 5paisa’s pre‑market outlook describes a “mildly cautious start” with a narrow intraday band likely unless fresh domestic triggers emerge. [27]
- The India VIX volatility index slipped to around 10.3, down nearly 4.7%, indicating low hedging activity and a calm options market despite macro noise. [28]
- Recent data show consistent FII outflows being largely absorbed by strong DII buying, helping the market stay resilient even when foreigners sell. [29]
What this means for Monday:
The base case is a range‑bound to slightly positive opening, with low volatility on the surface but plenty of room for intraday swings, especially as traders test out the new F&O pre‑open structure.
7. Technical & Derivatives Setup: Nifty and Bank Nifty Levels for the Week
Nifty 50: Sideways-to-bullish consolidation
Weekly analysis from multiple brokerages points to a consolidating but upward‑biased Nifty:
- Choice Broking notes that Nifty has been oscillating within 25,800–26,300 over the past two weeks, making a fresh all‑time high near 26,325 before a bout of profit‑taking and then recovery to 26,186.45. [30]
- The index remains above 20‑day, 50‑day and 200‑day EMAs, keeping the broader trend firmly bullish. [31]
- Key levels for the week (8–12 Dec, Choice): [32]
- Support: 26,100 then 26,000; deeper support near 25,850
- Resistance: 26,300–26,500
- Bias: Sideways to bullish, favouring a buy‑on‑dips strategy as long as supports hold
A separate Monday‑specific outlook from Replete Equities paints a similar picture: Nifty is seen in a “buy on dips, sell on spikes” environment, with option data showing heavy put writing near 26,000–26,100 and call writing around 26,300–26,400, signalling a tight but upward‑leaning range. [33]
Bank Nifty: Bullish structure above 59,300
Bank Nifty has been the stronger index in recent weeks:
- It made a fresh high near 60,114 and closed the week around 59,777, with price action hugging key moving averages. [34]
- Choice’s levels for Bank Nifty (week of 8–12 Dec): [35]
- Support: 59,500 then 58,550
- Resistance: 60,000–60,500
- Bias: Sideways to bullish, with a breakout on a firm close above 60,000 opening room for higher levels
Replete Equities’ Monday playbook suggests a bullish stance above 59,300, using dips towards 59,300–58,800 for staggered long entries and booking profits or hedging near 59,800–60,000 unless a strong breakout materialises. [36]
Practical takeaway for traders
- Intraday traders: Expect range‑bound price action with mean‑reversion between the support and resistance bands unless there’s a surprise macro headline.
- Positional traders: The trend remains up; dips towards the lower end of the range are still being bought, but risk‑reward is less attractive than earlier in the year, so position sizing and stop‑loss discipline are crucial.
8. IPO Rush and Stock-Specific Triggers This Week
It’s a busy primary market week (8–12 December), which can draw liquidity away from secondary markets and create stock‑specific opportunities: [37]
Mainboard IPOs opening this week
According to the Financial Express, four mainboard IPOs open between December 8–12: [38]
- Wakefit Innovations IPO
- Opens 8 Dec, closes 10 Dec
- Issue size: about ₹1,288.9 crore (mix of fresh issue and OFS)
- Price band: ₹185–195
- Listing expected on 15 December
- Corona Remedies IPO
- Opens 8 Dec, closes 10 Dec
- ₹655+ crore OFS; no fresh capital
- Price band: ₹1,008–1,062
- Listing expected 15 December
- Nephrocare Health Services
- Opens 10 Dec, closes 12 Dec
- Issue size: about ₹871 crore (fresh + OFS)
- Price band: ₹438–460; listing around 17 December
- Park Medi World
- Opens 10 Dec, closes 12 Dec
- ₹920 crore total (₹770 crore fresh + ₹150 crore OFS)
- Price band: ₹154–162; listing expected 17 December
SME IPOs and listings
On the SME side, issues like KV Toys India, Prodocs Solutions, Riddhi Display Equipments and Unisem Agritech add to the capital‑raising pipeline, with a cluster of 16 listings (including big names like Meesho, Aequs and Vidya Wires) scheduled through the week. [39]
Equity implication for Monday:
- Some traders may rotate into IPO‑linked names or hold cash for subscriptions, slightly affecting liquidity in secondary names.
- Newly listing IPOs later in the week will create momentum opportunities but may also add to index volatility if the listings are large and volatile.
9. Key Themes to Watch on Monday’s Sector & Stock Radar
a) Rate‑sensitive sectors
With the 25 bps RBI rate cut to 5.25% and liquidity support, banks, NBFCs, autos and real estate remain in focus. [40]
- Friday’s price action already saw PSU banks and financials outperform, and analysts expect buying interest to continue on dips in quality lenders. [41]
b) IT and exporters
The weak rupee (above 90/USD) tends to benefit IT and export-heavy sectors, and broker commentary through the weekend highlights large IT names as beneficiaries of currency moves and strong global demand. [42]
c) Import‑intensive plays
Sectors that rely heavily on imports — oil & gas, speciality chemicals, certain consumer durables and electronics — face margin pressures from rupee weakness, even though softer crude provides some offset. [43]
d) Stock ideas highlighted for Monday (not recommendations)
Brokerage and media screens surfaced several “stocks to watch on Monday, 8 December 2025” — treat these purely as indications of where market attention may cluster:
- Larsen & Toubro (L&T) – An ICICI Securities technical view flagged L&T as a buy candidate for 8 December, citing a positive structure and target near ₹4,520 after Friday’s rate‑driven rally. [44]
- State Bank of India (SBI), Infosys, Union Bank of India – A Livemint column by Ganesh Dongre of Anand Rathi highlighted these three as stocks to buy on Monday, combining favourable technical setups with positive sector backdrops (PSU banking + IT + PSU lenders). [45]
Again, these are not personal recommendations; they simply indicate which large‑cap names may see heightened volume and news‑driven trades in Monday’s session.
10. How to Approach Monday’s Session
Pulling it all together, here’s how the risk–reward landscape looks as the market opens on 8 December 2025:
- Trend still up, but momentum cooler
- Nifty and Bank Nifty remain in uptrends above crucial moving averages, but both indices are consolidating in tight ranges, suggesting a maturing bull leg rather than a fresh breakout phase. [46]
- Macro is supportive but noisy
- RBI’s cut + liquidity = supportive for equities, but
- Rupee at 90+ and a record trade deficit = persistent external vulnerability. [47]
- Global backdrop mildly risk‑on
- Wall Street is edging higher on expectations of another Fed cut, Asia has rallied YTD on reforms, and European indices are also firm — but all eyes are now on the Fed’s December meeting. [48]
- Micro-structure change in F&O could amplify opening noise
- The new F&O pre‑open session means Monday’s first 15 minutes will look and feel different for traders; order placement discipline and understanding of auction dynamics will be crucial. [49]
- Valuations and flows demand respect for risk
- With indices near record highs, valuations are rich; combined with FPI outflows and rupee weakness, the market is likely to reward stock selection and penalise over‑aggression. [50]
A sensible Monday playbook might include:
- For short‑term traders
- Focus on defined levels: respect Nifty support near 26,100–26,000 and resistance near 26,300–26,500; in Bank Nifty, watch 59,500 support and 60,000+ resistance. [51]
- Adapt to the F&O pre‑open: avoid random market orders at 9:15; use the call auction to place well‑thought-out limit orders.
- Size positions conservatively in light of the upcoming Fed decision and India CPI later in the week.
- For medium‑term investors
- Continue to prioritise quality in sectors benefiting from lower rates (financials, autos, real estate) and global strength plus rupee tailwinds (IT, select exporters).
- Be mindful that rupee weakness and external imbalances may cause spells of volatility, creating opportunities to accumulate high‑conviction names on corrections.
References
1. www.business-standard.com, 2. www.business-standard.com, 3. www.business-standard.com, 4. www.business-standard.com, 5. www.business-standard.com, 6. www.financialexpress.com, 7. enrichmoney.in, 8. enrichmoney.in, 9. enrichmoney.in, 10. enrichmoney.in, 11. enrichmoney.in, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.financialexpress.com, 17. www.financialexpress.com, 18. www.business-standard.com, 19. www.financialexpress.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. timesofindia.indiatimes.com, 22. indianexpress.com, 23. www.mufgresearch.com, 24. www.ccilindia.com, 25. www.mufgresearch.com, 26. www.5paisa.com, 27. www.5paisa.com, 28. www.5paisa.com, 29. www.5paisa.com, 30. choiceindia.com, 31. choiceindia.com, 32. choiceindia.com, 33. www.repleteequities.com, 34. choiceindia.com, 35. choiceindia.com, 36. www.repleteequities.com, 37. www.financialexpress.com, 38. www.financialexpress.com, 39. www.financialexpress.com, 40. www.business-standard.com, 41. www.business-standard.com, 42. www.reuters.com, 43. www.business-standard.com, 44. www.livemint.com, 45. www.livemint.com, 46. choiceindia.com, 47. www.business-standard.com, 48. www.reuters.com, 49. enrichmoney.in, 50. www.reuters.com, 51. choiceindia.com
