Indian Stock Market Today: 10 Things to Know Before Nifty & Sensex Open on December 4, 2025

India heads into Thursday’s session (4 December 2025) with equities still hovering near record highs, a currency at historic lows, and a big RBI policy decision just a day away. Here’s a comprehensive pre‑market playbook based on news, data and broker commentary from 3–4 December.

Quick snapshot before the opening bell

Four-day losing streak, but still near record highs – Nifty 50 closed at 25,986 (-0.18%) and Sensex at 85,106 (-0.04%) on Wednesday, their fourth straight negative close, but still not far from Monday’s all‑time highs. ^[1]
GIFT Nifty signals muted start – GIFT Nifty futures were trading around 26,093, down ~0.16%, pointing to a flat to mildly weak, range‑bound open unless fresh overnight cues appear. ^[2]
Rupee breaches 90 for the first time ever – The rupee hit an intraday record low near 90.29 per US dollar and closed around 90.19, its fourth straight session at new lows, driven by FII outflows, strong dollar and trade uncertainty. ^[3]
Macro backdrop still strong – India’s November services PMI jumped to 59.8, signalling robust domestic demand and easing cost pressures, even as export growth cooled and manufacturing momentum softened. ^[4]
RBI policy decision tomorrow – The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee concludes its meeting on Friday, 5 December. Markets had been pricing a potential 25 bps cut, but stronger GDP and activity data have lowered that probability, making Friday’s guidance critical for banks and rate‑sensitives. ^[5]
Global cues: Wall Street mixed, Europe mildly positive – US markets ended mixed as Microsoft‑led tech weakness offset gains in other sectors; Europe’s STOXX 600 and key indices in Germany and France closed modestly higher. ^[6]
FII selling vs DII buying – Over the last three sessions, foreign investors sold over ₹8,000 crore of equities, while domestic institutions bought nearly ₹12,000 crore, cushioning declines near record levels. ^[7]
Volatility remains subdued – India VIX is near 11.2, indicating a low‑volatility environment despite currency stress and FII outflows – a combination that can quickly change if Friday’s RBI decision surprises. ^[8]
IT, private banks hold up; PSU banks, cyclicals under pressure – IT and private banks outperformed on Wednesday, while PSU banks, metals, power, and other rate‑sensitive pockets bore the brunt of selling. ^[9]
Primary market buzz: Meesho, SMEs and fresh IPOs – Social‑commerce platform Meesho’s ₹604 million (approx.) IPO was fully subscribed on Day 1, while SME name Exato Technologies saw extreme oversubscription; multiple smaller IPOs, including Luxury Time and Western Overseas, open on 4 December. ^[10]

1. How Dalal Street closed on December 3

Wednesday’s session was another exercise in consolidation near peak territory:

Nifty 50: 25,986 (‑46 points, ‑0.18%)
Sensex: 85,106 (‑31 points, ‑0.04%) ^[11]

Both indices slipped during the day, with Nifty briefly losing the 25,900 zone before last‑hour buying pulled it back. Midcaps and smallcaps underperformed, with broader indices down around 0.7–1%, reflecting profit‑taking beyond the index heavyweights. ^[12]

Sector performance:

Gainers: IT, media, private banks and telecom rose roughly 0.2–0.7%, helped by rupee‑driven tailwinds for exporters and strength in large banking names like ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank. ^[13]
Losers: PSU banks slid about 3%, and oil & gas, metal, power, PSU and capital goods names fell 0.5–1.5%, as investors cut risk in more cyclical pockets. ^[14]

Analysts quoted by both Economic Times and Moneycontrol describe the move as healthy consolidation after a strong run, with dips being used selectively to accumulate quality large caps, especially in IT and private banks. ^[15]

2. GIFT Nifty and opening cue for December 4

As of late Wednesday, GIFT Nifty futures were quoting around 26,093, down about 0.16%, only slightly below the Nifty spot close of 25,986. ^[16]

Broker commentary from 5paisa flags:

“Range‑bound opening likely” – The small dip in GIFT Nifty suggests a muted to flat start.
Supportive but uneven global mood – Strength in US markets and modest gains in Europe could limit downside, but mixed Asian cues may cap early upside in heavyweight sectors. ^[17]

In plain terms: unless US futures or overnight news swing sharply, the market is set up for another choppy, sideways session rather than a big gap move.

3. Macro check: rupee at record low, services PMI strong, RBI risk looms

Rupee blows past 90 per US dollar

The Indian rupee finally cracked the psychologically important 90 mark on Wednesday:

Intraday low: around ₹90.29
Close: about ₹90.19, versus ₹89.87 previously ^[18]

Economic Times and other outlets attribute the slide to:

Persistent FII equity outflows
Robust demand for dollars from importers and corporates
A strong US dollar amid shifting Fed expectations
Uncertainty around US–India trade discussions and global risk sentiment ^[19]

Analysts note that while India’s macro fundamentals remain solid, the RBI appears comfortable with orderly, gradual depreciation, stepping in mainly to curb excess volatility rather than defend any particular level. ^[20]

For equities, a weaker rupee:

Helps exporters (IT, pharma, speciality chemicals, certain auto and telecom names)
Hurts import‑dependent sectors, such as airlines, some consumer names, and oil marketing companies, via higher input costs and potential margin pressure

Services PMI supports growth narrative

On the growth side, the picture is almost the mirror opposite of the rupee:

India Services PMI (HSBC/S&P Global) rose to 59.8 in November from 58.9 in October, marking the 52nd straight month of expansion, driven by stronger new business and robust domestic demand. ^[21]
Input cost inflation eased to its lowest since August 2020, giving firms more room to avoid aggressive price hikes and supporting a softer inflation backdrop. ^[22]

Export orders, however, grew at their slowest pace in eight months, underlining that the external environment remains fragile even as domestic demand hums along. ^[23]

RBI policy on December 5: banks in the spotlight

Friday’s RBI policy decision is now the central domestic risk for markets:

Q2 FY26 GDP recently surprised to the upside (growth above 8%), and PMIs are robust, arguing for patience on further cuts. ^[24]
At the same time, easing inflation and global rate‑cut bets had previously led markets to price in a possible 25 bps repo cut this week; commentary now suggests that probability has diminished, but not vanished. ^[25]

Banks and rate‑sensitives (NBFCs, real estate, autos) are likely to see sharp moves on any surprise in the policy rate, stance (“withdrawal of accommodation” vs neutral), or RBI commentary on:

Currency management
Liquidity conditions
Growth‑inflation outlook

4. Global cues: mixed Wall Street, steady Europe, cautious Asia

US markets: Microsoft drags tech, Fed bets intensify

On Wednesday, Wall Street sent a mixed signal to Asia:

Dow Jones: modest gain (around +0.9–1%)
S&P 500: roughly flat to slightly positive
Nasdaq: underperformed as big tech lagged ^[26]

Key drivers:

Microsoft fell nearly 3% after reports it had cut AI software sales quotas, raising questions about near‑term AI revenue momentum and dragging the broader tech complex lower. ^[27]
ADP private payrolls data showed an unexpected decline in jobs, reinforcing concerns about a slowing US economy, but also boosting expectations of a Fed rate cut at the upcoming meeting (with market odds near 90% for a 25 bps cut). ^[28]

Net takeaway: US macro data supports rate‑cut hopes, but tech‑heavy risk appetite is wobbling – a mixed cue for Indian IT and growth stocks.

Europe & Asia: mildly supportive, not euphoric

The STOXX 600 gained about 0.4%, with German and French indices up 0.3–0.4%, led by tech and industrial names. ^[29]
Asian markets on Wednesday saw a split handover: indices like Nikkei and Kospi closed higher, while Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng ended lower, mirroring uneven sentiment ahead of key US data and central‑bank meetings. ^[30]

With Fed and ECB decisions approaching, global risk sentiment is constructive but fragile, which tends to favour quality large caps over high‑beta midcaps in India.

Crude oil: soft prices cushion macro headwinds

Oil remains another quiet positive for India:

Recent reports place WTI crude near $57–58 and Brent around $60–63 per barrel, amid concerns about oversupply and a bearish OPEC+ tone. ^[31]

Cheaper oil helps India’s trade and fiscal math, partly offsetting the pain from a weaker rupee and keeping imported inflation risks in check.

5. Technical setup: Nifty & Bank Nifty levels to track

Moneycontrol’s “Trade Setup for December 4” and related technical commentary outline a range‑bound but fragile chart structure for indices. ^[32]

Nifty 50

Wednesday’s candle resembled a high‑wave / doji pattern, signalling indecision near the top of a strong uptrend. ^[33]
The index briefly dipped below its 20‑day EMA (around 25,950) but closed back above it, keeping the short‑term bullish bias technically intact. ^[34]

Key levels for Thursday:

Immediate support zone: ~25,900–25,950
Deeper supports (pivot‑based): near 25,914, 25,873 and 25,806
Upside resistances: around 26,048, 26,090 and 26,157 ^[35]

Technicians also flag a bearish divergence on daily indicators and a break below a rising trendline – signs that upside may be capped in the short term and that any failure to hold the 25,900 area could invite a deeper pullback. ^[36]

Bank Nifty

Close: 59,348 (+0.13%), outperforming the broader market, with private banks offering support even as PSU banks corrected sharply. ^[37]

Levels to watch:

Supports: roughly 59,043, 58,927 and 58,740
Resistances: around 59,416, 59,532 and 59,719 ^[38]

The crucial support zone between 58,700–59,000 is seen as the line in the sand for sustaining the current banking uptrend.

Derivatives positioning & F&O ban list

Moneycontrol’s derivatives data for the weekly expiry shows: ^[39]

Highest call open interest around 26,000 on Nifty – a key overhead supply zone.
Highest put open interest around 25,500, indicating strong positional support below spot levels.
Nifty PCR near 0.85, indicating a mild tilt towards calls and hinting at cautious sentiment.
India VIX near 11–11.3, reflecting complacent volatility despite macro noise. ^[40]

Only one stock – Sammaan Capital – is currently in the F&O ban list, limiting derivatives opportunities in that name. ^[41]

6. Flows & sentiment: FIIs selling, DIIs propping up the market

FII vs DII (last three sessions)

Data compiled by 5paisa shows that between 1–3 December: ^[42]

FIIs sold roughly ₹1,171 crore, ₹3,642 crore and ₹3,207 crore respectively – over ₹8,000 crore of net selling.
DIIs bought around ₹2,559 crore, ₹4,646 crore and ₹4,730 crore, totalling nearly ₹11,900 crore.

On a monthly horizon, Reuters notes that FIIs have been net sellers in Indian equities even as domestic mutual funds have poured in tens of billions of dollars equivalent over 2025, keeping the bull market intact. ^[43]

This tug‑of‑war is why:

Indices are near highs despite heavy FII outflows, and
Corrections so far have been shallow and rotational (broader market pain, but resilient large caps).

7. Sectors & stocks in focus for December 4

1) IT & exporters

Top sector on Wednesday: Nifty IT gained around 0.7%, with names like Wipro, TCS and Infosys among key gainers as a weak rupee boosts their offshore revenue outlook. ^[44]
Tech sentiment globally is more nuanced: US mega‑cap tech came under pressure due to AI demand concerns at Microsoft, so investors may differentiate between relatively defensive Indian IT services and high‑beta global AI names. ^[45]

2) Banks & financials

Private banks held up well Wednesday, helping Bank Nifty close in the green, while PSU banks dropped over 3%. ^[46]
With RBI’s decision due on Friday, all eyes will be on commentary on credit growth, NIMs and liquidity, making large lenders like HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and SBI likely to remain highly active.

3) PSU & rate‑sensitives

PSU banks, power, capital goods and other public‑sector names saw profit‑taking, partly on fears that further rupee weakness or policy surprises could hurt valuations that have run up sharply over the last year. ^[47]

4) Defence & geopolitically linked plays

A Paytm Money note highlights that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to India on 4–5 December could keep defence stocks in focus, with street chatter around possible fresh commentary on S‑400 deliveries and energy cooperation. ^[48]

Names in defence, shipbuilding and allied PSU space may see speculative interest, though any actual deals or announcements are highly uncertain at this stage.

5) Stock‑specific movers

Across various reports, traders are watching:

Sun Pharma – capex approval for a new greenfield facility in Madhya Pradesh. ^[49]
Mahindra Lifespaces – a large redevelopment project in Mumbai with over ₹1,000 crore GDV. ^[50]
Adani Enterprises – portfolio moves including stake changes in airport‑related ventures. ^[51]
Max Healthcare, Bharat Electronics, Angel One, InterGlobe Aviation, CEAT, among others, which saw noticeable moves Wednesday and could remain in the limelight. ^[52]

These are not recommendations, but they are names where newsflow and volumes are currently elevated.

8. Primary market: Meesho IPO, SME frenzy and new issues

Meesho IPO: big tech listing in focus

Meesho, a social‑commerce platform backed by global investors, opened its ₹105–111 per share IPO on 3 December. ^[53]
Reuters reports the $604 million issue was fully subscribed on Day 1, with total bids of about 429 million shares versus 278 million shares on offer, and particularly strong interest from retail investors, who bid over 3x their quota. ^[54]

The combination of a healthy grey‑market premium (~45%), improving unit economics and the broader appetite for new‑age tech listings makes Meesho a key sentiment barometer for mid‑cap tech and internet names.

SME IPOs: Exato Technologies and more

Exato Technologies, an SME IPO that closed on 2 December, was subscribed over 800–880 times, according to Moneycontrol and Mint, with listing scheduled for 5 December and share credit/refunds happening on 4 December. ^[55]
Such extreme SME oversubscriptions underline very frothy pockets in micro‑caps, an area where regulators and analysts have repeatedly urged caution.

Upcoming IPOs opening today

BlinkX’s upcoming IPO calendar shows that on 4 December 2025, at least two new issues open for subscription: ^[56]

Luxury Time Ltd
Western Overseas (likely a study‑abroad / services‑oriented business)

Several more – including Encompass Design India, Methodhub Software, Flywings Simulator Training Centre and Corona Remedies – follow over the next few sessions, keeping the primary market pipeline busy.

9. Medium‑term backdrop: strategists still see upside

Despite the recent four‑day dip and currency worries, global brokerages remain broadly constructive on India:

A Nomura note cited by The Times of India projects Nifty at 29,300 in 2026, implying roughly 13% upside from Tuesday’s close, backed by calmer geopolitics, stable macros and a cyclical earnings recovery. ^[57]
Other houses such as Goldman Sachs and HSBC are also cited as expecting 10–12% gains in Nifty/Sensex over 2026, as India’s valuation premium has cooled closer to long‑term averages after lagging some global peers over the last 14 months. ^[58]

That said, most strategists flag:

FII flows may not surge dramatically unless global AI‑driven rallies moderate and investors rotate back into broader EMs. ^[59]
Near‑term risks include: RBI surprises, further rupee stress, and any sharp reversal in global risk sentiment.

10. Trading checklist for Thursday, December 4, 2025

Here’s a concise to‑do list for traders and investors heading into the session:

Watch GIFT Nifty vs 26,000 – A flat to slightly soft start is likely; a decisive move above 26,000 or below 25,900 could set the intraday tone. ^[60]
Track rupee levels around 90 – Any sharp further depreciation could hurt banks, importers and high‑debt corporates, while continuing to support exporters. ^[61]
Monitor bond yields and RBI commentary leaks/speculation – Banks and NBFCs are highly sensitive to any shift in expectations around Friday’s repo decision. ^[62]
Respect Nifty support near 25,900 and resistance near 26,050–26,100 – This band is likely to define the day’s trading range unless there is a big global catalyst. ^[63]
Keep an eye on IT, pharma and quality private banks – These remain the relatively favoured pockets in most strategist notes for the current consolidation phase. ^[64]
Use caution in overheated mid/small‑caps and SME IPOs – Extreme oversubscriptions (like Exato) and broad‑market weakness suggest heightened risk in momentum‑driven micro‑caps. ^[65]
Follow Meesho IPO and listing cues – Strong subscription and grey‑market trends will influence sentiment towards tech, consumer internet and upcoming new‑age listings. ^[66]

Final note

This article is intended for information and news purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or stock recommendations. Market conditions can change quickly, especially around major events like an RBI policy meeting. Consider your risk tolerance, time horizon and, where appropriate, seek advice from a registered financial adviser before making trading or investment decisions.

References