Infosys Limited (NSE: INFY, BSE: 500209, NYSE: INFY) spent December 3 trading firm against a weak broader market, with investors digesting fresh currency moves, a just-closed ₹18,000‑crore share buyback, and new tax headlines alongside steady Q2 FY26 earnings and a deepening AI pipeline.
Infosys share price today: INFY holds firm as IT bucks the sell‑off
Based on provisional end‑of‑day data, Infosys shares on the NSE closed around ₹1,583 per share on December 3, up roughly 1.4% versus the previous close of ₹1,561, with volume of about 6.7 million shares. [1]
That move came on a day when India’s benchmark indices fell again: the Nifty 50 slipped 0.45% to 25,914 and the Sensex dropped 0.39% to 84,807, as profit‑taking continued from recent record highs. [2]
The Nifty IT index, however, rose around 1% and emerged as the top sectoral gainer, helped by a record‑weak rupee that briefly crossed ₹90 per U.S. dollar, improving the rupee value of dollar revenues for exporters such as Infosys. [3]
Key trading and performance stats around today’s session:
- Intraday range: roughly ₹1,555–₹1,585 on the NSE. [4]
- 52‑week range: ₹1,307 (low, April 7, 2025) to ₹2,006 (high, December 13, 2024), leaving the stock still more than 20% below its peak. [5]
- Short‑term returns: ~5.3% gain over one month and 4.16% over three months, with a six‑month beta of just 0.38, underscoring its role as a relatively defensive large‑cap. [6]
On the BSE, turnover in Infosys was among the highest by value today: one analysis pegged volume at about 22.5 lakh shares and value around ₹3,526 crore, with the stock largely flat intraday even as trading remained heavy and the price stayed above key moving averages on multiple timeframes. [7]
In short: the stock is off its 2024 highs, but comfortably above the 2025 bottom, and is behaving like a liquid, relatively low‑beta “safety IT” name as macro volatility picks up.
Big story #1: ₹18,000‑crore share buyback – from tender window to settlement day
The 2025 Infosys buyback is one of the headline drivers behind recent price action.
Structure and size
- Buyback size: ₹18,000 crore, via a tender offer.
- Buyback price: ₹1,800 per share, a premium to prevailing market levels when it was announced.
- Number of shares: 10 crore shares, or roughly 2.4% of equity. [8]
The tender window opened on November 20 and closed on November 26, with shareholders bidding for about 82.6 crore shares versus 10 crore accepted — an oversubscription of roughly 8.26×, according to stock‑exchange data summarised by Livemint. [9]
For retail shareholders, the entitlement ratio was 2:11, while the overall entitlement factor worked out to about 18.1% for retail and 2.4% for the general category, as detailed by NDTV Profit. [10]
Why December 3 matters
Today, December 3, sits in the settlement corridor for the buyback:
- NDTV’s timetable shows three key actions on December 3:
- Settlement of accepted bids on the stock exchange
- Return of unaccepted shares
- Payment of consideration to shareholders whose shares were repurchased
- Extinguishment of equity shares is scheduled for December 12, 2025, marking the formal completion of the programme. [11]
That combination of a large cash outlay, share count reduction and concentrated settlement date is one reason Infosys remained heavily traded by value today even with modest price moves.
Capital allocation signal
Management framed the buyback as part of its long‑running capital‑return policy, pairing it with a higher interim dividend:
- Q2 FY26 results came with an interim dividend of ₹23 per share, up about 9.5% YoY, alongside the buyback announcement. [12]
This “cash‑back plus buyback” combination is being read as a signal of confidence in long‑term cash flows, even as near‑term revenue growth stays low‑single‑digit.
Big story #2: GST scrutiny isn’t over – but the largest overhang is gone
Tax and GST headlines have followed Infosys for much of the last two years, and they remain part of the stock narrative.
Massive ₹32,403‑crore case closed in 2025
In June 2025, the Directorate General of GST Intelligence (DGGI) formally closed a pre‑show‑cause notice of about ₹32,403 crore related to alleged unpaid IGST on services from foreign branches (2017–2022). [13]
- The closure covered the bulk of the period originally flagged.
- The company reiterated that it considers itself compliant with GST rules, and the closure removed what the market had treated as a potential “nuclear‑size” tax risk.
New, much smaller GST demand: ₹13.6 crore
More recently, however, Infosys has received a fresh GST demand and penalty of ₹13.6 crore, reportedly linked to multi‑year employee guest‑house stays. Angel One and follow‑up coverage put this order at the Joint Commissioner of CGST level. [14]
Analytics India Magazine also notes that around the same period Infosys disclosed a show‑cause notice alleging ineligible input tax credit (ITC) refunds of about ₹415 crore, which the company has challenged in court, stressing there is no enforceable demand yet. [15]
From an equity point of view, the scale of risk has shifted:
- The giant ₹32k‑crore overhang is off the table.
- Ongoing smaller orders and show‑cause notices illustrate that tax scrutiny remains elevated, and they can still influence sentiment in the short term.
Investors are largely treating the ₹13.6‑crore order as a manageable item, but the pattern of recurring GST disputes is part of the risk checklist.
Big story #3: Q2 FY26 – revenue above $5 bn, AI projects scale, guidance nudged up
Infosys’ latest quarterly results (Q2 FY26, for the quarter ended September 30, 2025) form the fundamental backdrop for all of this.
Headline numbers
According to the company’s IFRS press release and subsequent commentary: [16]
- Revenue: $5.08 billion (reported $5,076m),
- +2.9% YoY and +2.2% QoQ in constant currency.
- Operating margin: 21.0%,
- roughly flat YoY, up ~20–30 bps sequentially.
- Basic EPS: $0.20,
- up ~7.9% YoY (13.1% EPS growth in rupee terms).
- Free cash flow (FCF): $1.1 billion,
- about 131% of net profit, highlighting strong cash conversion.
- Large deals TCV: $3.1 billion,
- with 67% net‑new contracts.
For the first half of FY26, revenues crossed $10.0 billion, with 3.3% YoY growth in constant currency and operating margin at 20.9%.
Guidance and demand tone
Management’s FY26 guidance now stands at: [17]
- Revenue growth: 2–3% in constant currency
- Operating margin: 20–22%
On the Q2 earnings call, executives highlighted:
- Over 2,500 generative‑AI projects and 200+ “agentic” AI projects for clients, centred around the Infosys Topaz platform and related tooling.
- A pipeline increasingly tilted toward cost‑takeout and efficiency deals, with discretionary spending still muted in some verticals (notably parts of BFSI and hi‑tech).
- The buyback and higher interim dividend as capital‑allocation choices, not defensive moves, framed against robust cash flows and a conservative balance sheet. [18]
Independent analysis (Constellation Research, AI‑focused commentary and brokerage notes) largely describes the quarter as “steady rather than spectacular”: low‑single‑digit growth, stable margins, and clear AI positioning, but still held back by macro uncertainty and cautious enterprise tech budgets. [19]
Structural AI story: GCC model and enterprise AI roll‑outs
Beyond quarterly numbers, recent news around Infosys’ AI strategy is helping shape the medium‑term narrative.
In mid‑November, Infosys unveiled an “AI‑first” Global Capability Centre (GCC) model, aimed at multinationals wanting to build or upgrade captive centres in India and elsewhere. [20]
- The framework integrates Infosys Agentic Foundry, EdgeVerve AI Next, and Infosys Topaz into a template for AI‑driven GCCs, covering setup, talent, and ongoing transformation.
- Infosys says the model draws on experience across 100+ GCC engagements and supports structures like build‑operate‑transfer and joint ventures.
Paired with the Q2 disclosure of thousands of active AI projects, this positions Infosys as one of the front‑foot players in large‑scale enterprise AI implementation, even if actual revenue contribution remains incremental for now.
Valuation snapshot: P/E, dividend yield, and market cap
On current numbers, Infosys screens as a large‑cap, cash‑rich IT services stock trading at a modest discount to its own recent history and to the sector average.
Key metrics from public data providers and the NSE:
- Market capitalisation: roughly ₹6.5 lakh crore (about $72–73 billion). [21]
- Trailing P/E (India listing): around 23x earnings, versus an industry P/E near 26x. [22]
- P/B ratio: approximately 6.8–7.5x, reflecting the capital‑light, high‑ROE profile. [23]
- Dividend yield: roughly 2.7–2.9% in rupee terms, and about 2.5% on the U.S. ADR, with semi‑annual payouts and a long history of regular dividends. [24]
- PE (ADR, TTM): around 22x, down from roughly 27x at the end of 2024, indicating some valuation de‑rating despite resilient earnings. [25]
In other words: Infosys is not “cheap” in absolute terms, but it no longer trades at the frothiest multiples of the last cycle, even as margins and cash generation remain robust.
What analysts are saying: Stock forecasts for Infosys
Analyst views split along listing lines (India vs. U.S. ADR) but generally converge on a moderately constructive stance.
India listing (NSE: INFY)
- Investing.com’s 44‑analyst consensus:
- Average 12‑month target around ₹1,719
- Target range: ₹1,470–₹2,150
- Consensus rating: “Buy”, with 33 Buy, 10 Hold, 2 Sell, implying about 9% upside from recent prices. [26]
- Trendlyne’s domestic brokerage compilation (31 reports, 11 analysts):
- Average target ~₹1,639,
- representing roughly 4–5% upside from a last price near ₹1,573. [27]
A recent Yahoo‑syndicated research summary (access via snippet) noted that the consensus target nudged up from around ₹1,706 to ₹1,719, reflecting slightly improving sentiment even as earnings expectations remain conservative. [28]
U.S. ADR (NYSE: INFY)
- StockAnalysis / Public.com indicate 5 covering analysts with a “Hold” consensus and an average target of about $16.40 per ADR, implying modest downside versus a recent price around $17.40. [29]
The contrasting views largely reflect currency assumptions, listing‑specific investor bases, and the recent ADR rally off October lows.
Street themes in recent notes
Across broker reports, earnings call recaps and media analysis, a few recurring themes stand out: [30]
- AI as a structural positive, but revenue impact is gradual, not “big bang”.
- Deal wins and TCV remain healthy, especially in cost‑efficiency and AI transformation deals.
- Margins are holding up near the top of the 20–22% guided band, helped by utilisation, pyramid optimisation and lower hiring intensity.
- Near‑term revenue growth is capped by subdued discretionary IT spending in some sectors.
- Capital‑return story (dividends + buybacks) is increasingly central to the equity case.
Derivatives and trading signals: Calls cluster at ₹1,580–₹1,600
Short‑term traders have a lot to chew on from the derivatives market:
- MarketsMojo highlights heavy call‑option activity in December 30, 2025 expiry contracts, particularly at ₹1,580 and ₹1,600 strikes, with elevated open interest and turnover.
- The underlying stock price was quoted around ₹1,564 at the time of that report, with Infosys trading above key moving averages (5‑day through 200‑day) — a configuration that usually reads as technically constructive. [31]
Layer on today’s high cash‑segment value turnover and the stock’s low beta, and you get a picture of a name that:
- Is actively traded and well‑owned,
- Shows signs of cautious bullishness in options positioning, yet
- Trades within a well‑defined range below historical highs, where resistance near the ₹1,600–₹1,650 zone may matter for short‑term charts.
Macro backdrop: Rupee slide, IT sector rotation, and Nomura’s bullish India call
Infosys’ current setup is tightly linked to the macro tape:
- The rupee’s slide beyond ₹90 per U.S. dollar has weighed on broader equities but supported export‑oriented IT stocks. Multiple market reports flagged Infosys, TCS, Wipro and others rising up to 2% intraday as the Nifty IT index outperformed. [32]
- Motilal Oswal called IT “highly attractive on valuations”, and Reuters reported upgrades on Infosys, Mphasis, Zensar Tech and Wipro as the sector bucked the broader sell‑off. [33]
Meanwhile, Nomura’s latest India strategy note forecasts the Nifty 50 at 29,300 by end‑2026 (~12% above current levels) and lists Infosys among its top stock picks, with IT named as one of the preferred sectors. [34]
Taken together, the macro lens casts Infosys as:
- A large‑cap IT exporter with currency tailwinds,
- Benefiting from global rate‑cut expectations and AI‑related capex, but
- Still exposed to global growth wobbles and U.S./Europe tech‑spend cycles.
Key risks: What could go wrong from here?
Even with a supportive buyback and AI story, investors are watching several downside risks:
- Global IT demand and BFSI exposure
- A deeper or longer‑lasting slowdown in U.S. or European IT budgets — especially in banking and financial services — could pressure the low‑single‑digit growth outlook.
- Margin compression
- Wage inflation, on‑site/off‑shore mix shifts, pricing pressure and large‑deal ramp‑ups all threaten the 20–22% margin corridor if not carefully managed. [35]
- Regulatory and tax overhangs
- While the ₹32,403‑crore GST case is closed, smaller demands (like the ₹13.6‑crore guest‑house order) and ongoing ITC disputes show that tax risk hasn’t disappeared, only shrunk in scale. [36]
- Cybersecurity and data‑protection incidents
- The Infosys McCamish Systems data breach has already led to a $17.5 million class‑action settlement pool in the U.S., reminding investors that operational and reputational risks can have both legal and financial costs. [37]
- Valuation and expectations
- Even after de‑rating, Infosys still trades at a low‑20s P/E with high‑teens to 20% ROE, leaving limited room for error if growth undershoots or margins soften. [38]
Medium‑term picture: A defensive AI‑tilted compounder, not a hyper‑growth story
Put all of this together, and the December 3, 2025 snapshot for Infosys looks like this:
- Business: Global, diversified IT services and consulting franchise with steady mid‑20s ROE, net cash, and a growing AI / GCC play. [39]
- Earnings: Low‑single‑digit top‑line growth, stable 21% margins, and excellent cash conversion, but still tied to macro IT‑spend cycles. [40]
- Capital returns: Rich, semi‑annual dividends plus episodic large buybacks, with the latest ₹18,000‑crore programme oversubscribed 8.26× and currently in settlement. [41]
- Valuation: Reasonable but not distressed, with mid‑20s P/E, 2.5–3% dividend yield, and some upside implied in India‑listing analyst targets, versus a more neutral “Hold” view on the U.S. ADR. [42]
For investors and traders scanning Google News or Discover, Infosys today is less about a dramatic inflection point and more about an evolving mix of:
- Defensive cash‑flow quality,
- Slow‑but‑steady AI‑driven growth,
- Ongoing tax and regulatory noise, and
- A valuation that’s no longer euphoric, but still assumes competent execution.
References
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