Intel (INTC) Stock Surges on Apple Chip Rumors and $208M Malaysia Expansion: 2025 Rally, Analyst Forecasts and What’s Next

Updated December 3, 2025 – This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.

Intel Stock Today: Price, Performance and Valuation

Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) is back in the spotlight. As of December 3, 2025, Intel shares trade around $43.47, essentially flat on the day but hovering at fresh 52‑week highs near $43.68, with a market cap of roughly $208 billion. ^[1]

That’s an astonishing turnaround from the stock’s 52‑week low near $17.67, meaning the share price has more than doubled from its 2024 nadir. ^[2] Depending on the data source and whether you include dividends, Intel’s 2025 year‑to‑date return is in the ballpark of 100–115%, making it one of the strongest performers among large U.S. chipmakers this year. ^[3]

Yet valuation is tricky to read. Because Intel is coming off a deep earnings slump and still absorbing massive foundry investments, its trailing price‑to‑earnings ratio looks absurdly high (in the thousands) on some screens. ^[4] Forward‑looking estimates paint a more normal picture: consensus expects EPS to recover from near‑zero in 2024 to about $0.35 in 2025 and $0.59 in 2026, implying a forward P/E that’s elevated but not outrageous for a turnaround story. ^[5]

In other words, Intel stock is no longer “left for dead” — it’s priced like a high‑beta recovery bet where investors are paying up for a credible turnaround, not a deep value bargain.

What Changed on December 3, 2025? The New Catalysts

Two fresh headlines dominate the Intel story this week:

A new $208 million expansion in Malaysia, and
Escalating rumors that Apple will become a major Intel Foundry customer.

Together, they’ve powered a sharp 8–9% two‑day spike that put INTC near record highs. ^[6]

Let’s unpack each driver.

1. $208 Million Malaysia Expansion: Quiet but Important

On December 3, Intel confirmed a $208 million investment in Malaysia to expand assembly and test capacity, reinforcing the country’s role as a key hub in Intel’s global back‑end manufacturing network. ^[7]

Key points:

The new commitment builds on a prior $7 billion advanced packaging project announced in 2021, centered on Penang and Kulim. ^[8]
The money will go toward additional assembly and testing lines and advanced packaging capability, which are critical for AI accelerators, chiplet‑based CPUs and data center parts. ^[9]
Malaysia already handles a significant portion of Intel’s global back‑end work; the expansion deepens that footprint at a time when demand for advanced packaging is exploding.

Analysts see the move as a capacity and resilience story more than an immediate earnings catalyst. By expanding back‑end capacity in Asia while leading‑edge front‑end production scales in the U.S. and Europe, Intel can better service big customers that demand both geographic diversity and sophisticated packaging for AI‑heavy designs. ^[10]

2. Apple Foundry Rumors: A Narrative Game‑Changer

The more explosive catalyst is the latest round of Apple–Intel foundry rumors.

Multiple reports this week — including Tom’s Hardware, The Verge, Investopedia and others — cite analyst Ming‑Chi Kuo, who says Apple has: ^[11]

Signed an NDA with Intel for its 18A/18A‑P process,
Received an early 18A process design kit (PDK) for evaluation, and
Is considering shifting production of its lowest‑end M‑series chips — those used in MacBook Air and some iPad Pro models — to Intel as soon as mid‑2027, if 18A ramp and yields stay on track.

Tom’s Hardware reports that such a deal would see Intel manufacture entry‑level M‑series devices on 18A, with volume production potentially beginning in 2027, while TSMC remains Apple’s primary supplier for flagship chips. ^[12]

From a numbers perspective, the projected 15–20 million units a year would be meaningful but not transformative for Apple — however, for Intel Foundry, landing Apple at all would be a symbolic earthquake. ^[13]

That’s why:

Intel stock jumped more than 10% in a shortened session last week when the rumor first went viral, making it one of the best performers in the S&P 500 that day. ^[14]
The rally continued into this week as more outlets repeated Kuo’s call, culminating in another ~8% spike on December 2. TS2 Tech+2TradingView+2

For investors, the potential Apple deal is less about near‑term revenue and more about validation:

It would endorse Intel’s 18A process as “good enough” for one of the world’s most demanding chip buyers. ^[15]
It would support Washington’s goal of building U.S.‑based capacity for advanced nodes, as Apple could source some Macs and iPads from Intel’s Arizona fabs. ^[16]
And it would reshape perceptions of Intel’s foundry business, which until now has had relatively modest external revenue.

No formal deal has been announced, and both companies have declined comment, so this remains speculation — but it’s powerful speculation that is clearly being priced into the stock.

The Bigger Strategic Backdrop: Government Stake, Nvidia and 18A

This week’s headlines sit on top of several structural shifts that already re‑rated Intel in 2025.

A 9.9% U.S. Government Stake: Industrial Policy Meets Equity

In August, the U.S. government agreed to acquire a 9.9% stake in Intel, investing $8.9 billion at $20.47 per share by converting previously awarded CHIPS Act grants and Secure Enclave funding into equity. ^[17]

Key details:

The government bought 433.3 million shares, structured as passive ownership with no board seat, but with warrants that could raise its stake above 15% under certain conditions. ^[18]
Intel warned in SEC filings and public comments that such a visible state ownership position could hurt international sales or complicate future grants, especially in China and other sensitive markets. ^[19]

For investors, this stake is a double‑edged sword:

It de‑risks the balance sheet and underlines that Intel is “too important to fail” in U.S. industrial strategy. ^[20]
It also entwines Intel’s fortunes more tightly with politics and geopolitics, which can introduce unpredictable risks.

Nvidia and SoftBank Join the Cap Table

The U.S. government wasn’t the only deep‑pocketed buyer in 2025.

In its Q3 release, Intel confirmed that Nvidia invested $5 billion and SoftBank Group invested $2 billion in Intel common stock, as part of broader strategic collaborations. ^[21]

TradingNews summarizes it this way: Intel’s stock more than doubled year‑to‑date, helped by the Nvidia stake, the U.S. government’s equity injection and the partial spin‑off of Altera for $4.46 billion. ^[22]

The Nvidia partnership in particular:

Includes joint development of custom data center and PC products, combining Intel’s CPUs with Nvidia GPUs and interconnects. ^[23]
Gives Intel a foothold in high‑end AI infrastructure even while it ramps its own accelerators.

Taken together, government, Nvidia and SoftBank money provide capital, credibility and customer pull for Intel’s foundry and AI roadmap — but they also raise expectations. If Intel stumbles, the disappointment will be magnified.

18A and Panther Lake: The Technology Story

Intel’s turnaround narrative hinges on its five‑nodes‑in‑four‑years plan culminating in Intel 18A and, later, 14A.

In October, the company formally unveiled the Panther Lake architecture, its first client SoC on Intel 18A: ^[24]

Panther Lake powers Intel Core Ultra Series 3 processors, targeting premium AI PCs and thin‑and‑light notebooks.
It promises Lunar Lake‑class efficiency with Arrow Lake‑level performance, up to 16 combined performance and efficiency cores, and over 50% faster CPU and GPU performance versus the prior generation, plus up to ~180 TOPS of AI throughput at the platform level. ^[25]
Panther Lake is being manufactured at Fab 52 in Chandler, Arizona, Intel’s newest high‑volume fab, which the company calls “the U.S. home of Intel 18A.” ^[26]

On the data‑center side, Intel previewed Xeon 6+ “Clearwater Forest”, an 18A‑based E‑core server CPU planned for the first half of 2026, aimed at dense, power‑efficient cloud workloads. ^[27]

Technical reporting suggests that 18A is progressing but not yet fully at industry‑standard yields; Tom’s Hardware estimates yields only reach mature levels around 2027, which aligns with the Apple rumor timelines. ^[28]

For the stock, the message is clear: the 18A ramp is the core of the long‑term thesis. The Apple and Malaysia headlines mainly reinforce that story.

Fundamentals Check: Intel’s Q3 2025 Results

Behind the headlines, Intel’s latest numbers show real but early‑stage improvement.

From the company’s official Q3 2025 earnings release: ^[29]

Revenue: $13.7 billion, up 3% year‑over‑year.
GAAP EPS: $0.90 vs. a loss of $3.88 a year ago.
Non‑GAAP EPS: $0.23 vs. a loss of $0.46, beating a low bar of expectations.
Gross margin: up more than 22–23 percentage points year over year on both GAAP and non‑GAAP bases.
R&D and MG&A expenses: down about 17–20%, reflecting aggressive cost control.

By segment: ^[30]

Client Computing Group (PCs) generated about $8.5 billion in revenue, up 5% year over year — still the profit engine.
Data Center & AI brought in around $4.1 billion, slightly down year over year amid competitive pressure and cloud digestion.
Intel Foundry booked $4.2 billion in revenue but remained unprofitable, with analyses citing roughly a $2.3 billion operating loss for the quarter as the company ramps new fabs. ^[31]

Intel guided for Q4 2025 revenue of $12.8–13.8 billion and non‑GAAP EPS of $0.08, reflecting ongoing restructuring and the deconsolidation of Altera. ^[32]

Put simply: operations are clearly improving, but earnings are still far from normalized and heavily affected by accounting around U.S. government transactions and foundry ramp‑up.

What Wall Street Thinks: Intel Stock Forecasts and Ratings

Despite the euphoria in the share price, analysts remain cautious.

Different data providers show slightly different numbers, but they all point in the same direction: “Hold” with targets below the current price.

StockAnalysis: 25 covering analysts, consensus rating “Hold” and an average 12‑month price target of $31.98, implying about 26% downside from current levels. Target range: $20–$52. ^[33]
MarketBeat: 34 analysts with an average target around $34.84, roughly 20% below recent trading, with the highest target at $52 and the lowest around $20. ^[34]
MarketWatch: about 47 ratings, average recommendation Hold and average target near $38.30, still below today’s price. ^[35]
Benzinga’s analyst‑rating summary pegs the consensus target near $31.2, with the most bullish call — Tigress Financial — at $52, and the most bearish — Baird — at $20. ^[36]
Quiver Quantitative aggregates 19 recent price targets with a median of $35, citing recent ratings such as Tigress (Strong Buy, $52), Barclays (Hold, $35), TD Cowen (Hold, $38) and several “Reduce/Underperform” calls in the low‑30s and mid‑20s. ^[37]

Across these sources, the pattern is consistent:

Rating: mostly Hold / Reduce, not Strong Buy.
Average targets: mid‑30s per share, below the current ~$43–44 level.
Range of views: $20–$52, reflecting wide disagreement on long‑term execution.

Some commentators, including TradingNews and several Seeking Alpha authors, argue that if you adjust for one‑time charges and early‑stage foundry losses, Intel effectively trades at a mid‑teens multiple of “normalized” earnings, which they see as attractive versus AMD and Nvidia at much higher forward P/Es. ^[38]

But the sell‑side consensus is more conservative: yes, the turnaround looks real; no, the current price does not look cheap.

Sentiment and Positioning: Momentum vs. Skepticism

The short‑term sentiment around Intel is undeniably bullish:

Benzinga’s options and momentum data give Intel a Momentum score in the mid‑90s, highlighting exceptionally strong buying interest relative to the broader market. ^[39]
The stock has rallied roughly 20% in the past week alone, and more than 90% over the last 12 months, according to Benzinga and Reuters, making it a poster child for the 2025 chip rebound. ^[40]

At the same time, QuiverQuant’s data show:

Mixed analyst ratings (more Holds and Sells than Buys),
Heavy institutional reshuffling in recent quarters, and
Growing social‑media chatter focused on the Apple rumor and U.S. government stake, not just fundamentals. ^[41]

That combination — hot momentum, cautious Wall Street, narrative‑driven retail interest — usually means higher volatility going forward.

Key Risks: What Could Go Wrong for the Intel Bull Case?

Even the most bullish analyses emphasize that Intel’s rally sits on top of serious risks.

Foundry execution and capital intensity
- Intel Foundry is still posting multi‑billion‑dollar annual losses, and Q3 showed a roughly $2.3 billion operating loss on foundry revenue of $4.2 billion. ^[42]
- 18A yields are improving but may not hit industry‑standard levels until 2027, raising the stakes on landing large, committed customers like Microsoft and Apple. ^[43]
- Next‑generation 14A — which will use expensive High‑NA EUV tools — is expected to be more costly per wafer than 18A, increasing the pressure to maintain high utilization. ^[44]
Demand cyclicality and competition
- PC demand is stabilizing but remains sensitive to macro conditions; AI PCs could drive an upgrade cycle, but that may be offset by higher memory and component prices. ^[45]
- In data center and AI, Intel faces formidable competitors in Nvidia, AMD, TSMC and Samsung, all of whom are fighting for hyperscaler budgets. ^[46]
Political and geopolitical risk
- The 9.9% U.S. government stake could complicate Intel’s business in markets sensitive to U.S. security policy. Reuters reports that Intel itself has warned about potential harm to international sales and future grant eligibility. ^[47]
- Some CHIPS‑related agreements reportedly require Intel to maintain majority control over Intel Foundry, limiting its flexibility to spin off or restructure the business if it underperforms. ^[48]
Valuation and expectations
- After a 100%+ YTD run, the market is already discounting a fair amount of success on 18A, Apple/Microsoft deals and U.S. industrial policy. ^[49]
- If any of these pillars wobble — for example, if Apple delays qualification, or if 18A yields disappoint — multiple compression could be sharp.

Key Catalysts to Watch (Late 2025 – 2026)

Investors tracking Intel stock over the next 6–18 months will likely focus on a handful of concrete events:

UBS Global Technology and AI Conference (December 2025): Intel is slated to present and could offer more detail on foundry margins, 18A ramp and customer wins. ^[50]
Q4 2025 earnings (expected late January 2026): This will test whether recent margin gains and cost cuts are sustainable, and how much AI and government support are flowing through the income statement. ^[51]
Any formal Apple announcement: A confirmed foundry contract — or a denial — would move the stock dramatically in either direction. ^[52]
Progress updates on 18A and 14A: Yield milestones, new customer signings, and progress on High‑NA EUV adoption will shape perceptions of Intel’s long‑term competitiveness. ^[53]
Further CHIPS Act and policy developments: Any changes to U.S. industrial‑policy funding — or foreign reactions to the U.S. stake — could impact Intel’s cost of capital and global customer relationships. ^[54]

What It All Means for INTC Investors

From a news and analysis standpoint, December 3, 2025 marks a new phase in the Intel story:

The Malaysia expansion reinforces Intel’s role as a global manufacturing powerhouse and adds back‑end capacity for AI and high‑performance products. ^[55]
The Apple foundry rumors validate the strategic logic of Intel’s foundry pivot, even if the deal is still unconfirmed and likely small in near‑term revenue terms. ^[56]
The U.S. government stake, Nvidia and SoftBank investments transform Intel into a linchpin of U.S. industrial policy and AI infrastructure — but also make the company’s execution a matter of national strategy as much as corporate performance. ^[57]

For different types of market participants:

Short‑term traders see a stock with strong momentum, heavy options activity and headline‑driven moves — fertile ground, but also prone to sharp swings if rumors disappoint. ^[58]
Long‑term investors must weigh foundry execution risk, capital intensity and political entanglement against the potential upside of Intel reclaiming a top‑tier place in advanced manufacturing and AI PCs.

Given that most published price targets sit below today’s quote, the consensus view is that a lot of good news is already reflected in the stock — and that Intel now has to earn its rally with flawless execution. ^[59]

As always, anyone considering Intel (or any stock) should do their own due diligence, consider their risk tolerance and time horizon, and, if needed, consult a qualified financial adviser. This article is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities.

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