Intel Corporation’s stock has flipped from “fallen giant” to one of 2025’s wildest turnaround bets – and now it’s wobbling again.
As of midday on December 5, 2025, Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) is trading around $40.50, down sharply from this week’s highs above $43 but still more than 100% higher year-to-date, according to several market commentaries and price-target services. [1]
The pullback comes after a 7–8% drop on Thursday, December 4, when investors balked at Intel’s decision to keep its networking unit, even as hype around a possible Apple chip manufacturing deal, a big U.S. government equity stake, and aggressive AI ambitions continues to fuel long‑term optimism. [2]
Intel stock today: giving back gains after a 33% two‑week surge
Thursday’s selloff was not happening in a vacuum.
Market data and trading commentary show that Intel stock had surged roughly 30–33% over the previous two weeks, powered by renewed confidence in its turnaround, a friendlier macro backdrop, and especially speculation that Apple might tap Intel’s most advanced manufacturing nodes for future Mac chips. [3]
According to several trading outlets:
- Intel fell about 7.4% on December 4, marking one of the weakest performances in the S&P 500 on the day. [4]
- The decline followed reports that Intel will retain, rather than spin off, its networking and communications (NEX) business, reversing some of the recent “Apple euphoria” that pushed shares to a 52‑week high around $43.34 earlier in the week. [5]
For short‑term traders, the move looks like a textbook “cool‑down” after a vertical rally. For longer‑term investors, it’s a reminder that Intel’s turnaround story is still messy and highly debated.
Why Intel kept its networking unit – and why markets didn’t love it
In a key piece of December 3 news, Intel announced that it will keep its networking and edge (NEX) division after a strategic review that had previously explored selling or spinning off the unit. [6]
According to reporting from Reuters and others, Intel’s leadership argues that NEX:
- Strengthens the company’s end‑to‑end AI, data center, and edge computing stack by tightly integrating networking hardware, silicon, and software.
- Benefits from Intel’s broader push into AI‑optimized infrastructure, where high‑bandwidth networking is increasingly critical. [7]
However, investors had been hoping Intel would keep pruning non‑core or lower‑margin operations to reduce complexity and improve profitability. Holding onto NEX:
- Keeps more capital tied up in a business that has historically offered lower margins than cutting‑edge CPUs or AI accelerators.
- Reinforces concerns that Intel’s turnaround is strategically ambitious but operationally overloaded.
The market’s verdict was immediate: shares, which had been riding the Apple rumor wave, dropped nearly 8% on the day, wiping out a chunk of recent gains. [8]
An unusual backer: the U.S. government now owns almost 10% of Intel
One of the biggest structural developments in Intel’s story this year has nothing to do with Apple or AI – it’s politics and industrial policy.
On August 22, 2025, Intel announced a $8.9 billion equity investment from the U.S. government, funded largely via CHIPS Act grants and a defense‑focused Secure Enclave program. [9]
Key details of the deal:
- The U.S. will purchase 433.3 million new Intel shares at $20.47, giving it roughly a 9.9% stake.
- Washington also gets a five‑year warrant at $20/share for an additional 5% stake – exercisable only if Intel ever reduces its ownership of the foundry business below 51%. [10]
- Combined with prior CHIPS grants, total U.S. public‑sector support to Intel now exceeds $11 billion, explicitly aimed at expanding advanced chip manufacturing on American soil. [11]
Separate reporting and analysis note that this follows billions in private‑sector investments from Nvidia, SoftBank and other stakeholders, helping shore up Intel’s balance sheet as it pushes into capital‑intensive foundry projects. [12]
For Intel stockholders, this cuts both ways:
- Positive: Financing risk is lower; mega‑fabs in the U.S. and abroad are easier to fund; and the government is clearly motivated to see Intel succeed strategically.
- Risky: A government as a near‑10% shareholder introduces political and regulatory complexity, and raises questions about future pressure on Intel’s business decisions, buybacks, or dividend policy.
Apple foundry rumors: why Intel’s 18A and 14A nodes suddenly matter so much
The most explosive near‑term catalyst for Intel stock has been the wave of reports suggesting that Apple may use Intel as a contract manufacturer for some M‑series Mac and iPad chips starting around 2027.
Across multiple outlets and analyst notes:
- Supply‑chain analyst Ming‑Chi Kuo has said Apple is increasingly likely to have Intel manufacture its lowest‑end M‑series processor on the company’s upcoming 18A‑P (18AP) process, possibly as early as Q2–Q3 2027. [13]
- Coverage from tech and Apple‑focused media reiterates that this would remain a limited slice of Apple’s chip portfolio, with TSMC expected to keep most high‑end Pro/Max/Ultra M‑series production. [14]
- Industry commentary frames the potential deal as less about near‑term dollars and more about validation: if Apple bets on Intel’s 18A/18A‑P, it signals that Intel’s new process technology is finally back in the same league as TSMC. [15]
Meanwhile, Intel itself has spent 2025 hammering home a manufacturing comeback narrative:
- Its 18A node is on track for production in 2025 and is slated to power upcoming Panther Lake client CPUs and Clearwater Forest data center chips, according to company disclosures and industry analysis. [16]
- The roadmap now extends to 14A, a next‑generation node that some analysts argue may ultimately be even more important than 18A, especially for external foundry customers. [17]
It’s this backdrop – a long‑promised process comeback plus the prospect of a marquee customer – that triggered some of the 10%+ one‑day spikes Intel investors have seen in late November and early December. [18]
But none of the Apple news is confirmed, and all of it is years out. That makes the recent rally inherently fragile.
Manufacturing expansion: Malaysia, Arizona and the foundry mega‑build
While investors obsess over Apple rumors, Intel is quietly pouring concrete and laying steel.
Recent announcements show:
- Intel will invest an additional 860 million ringgit (about $208 million) in Malaysia to expand assembly and testing operations, reinforcing a prior $7 billion advanced packaging commitment in the country. [19]
- In Arizona, Intel continues a multi‑tens‑of‑billions‑of‑dollars expansion at its Ocotillo campus, where the company plans to produce its most advanced logic chips using nodes like 18A for both its own products and foundry customers. [20]
These projects are central to Intel’s vision of becoming a “systems foundry” capable of advanced logic, packaging, and heterogeneous integration – a direct challenge to TSMC and Samsung in the contract manufacturing business. [21]
For shareholders, the expansions are a huge double‑edged sword: they create long‑term capacity and strategic leverage, but they also drive enormous capital expenditures and near‑term foundry losses.
AI accelerators: ambitious roadmap, uneven execution
No 2025 semiconductor story is complete without AI.
On that front, Intel is trying to pivot from “CPU giant” to full‑stack AI player, but the road has been bumpy:
- Intel’s Gaudi 3 AI accelerators have launched and secured some design wins – for example in Dell PowerEdge servers – but commentary suggests adoption still trails far behind Nvidia’s and AMD’s top data center GPUs. [22]
- The company cancelled its Falcon Shores GPU earlier this year, re‑positioning that effort as groundwork for a successor platform called Jaguar Shores, now framed as a longer‑term play rather than an immediate Nvidia‑killer. [23]
- Intel insiders and watchers note that its AI roadmap has suffered delays and re‑brands, sparking investor questions about whether the company is focusing more on edge AI and inference rather than trying to match Nvidia in the most demanding training workloads. [24]
That said, Intel has recently indicated plans to move to an annual AI product cadence and is positioning 18A/18A‑P as a manufacturing foundation not just for its own accelerators but potentially for customer silicon as well. [25]
In short: Intel’s AI story is improving, but it still lags the leaders – which matters a lot given how much of the chip sector’s valuation now comes from AI expectations.
Q3 2025 earnings: better execution, but profits still thin
Intel’s third‑quarter 2025 results were a major checkpoint for the turnaround:
- Revenue: about $13.7 billion, up sequentially and ahead of guidance. [26]
- Non‑GAAP EPS:$0.23, with GAAP EPS of $0.90 helped by gains related to portfolio actions. [27]
- Gross margin: around 40%, several points above what management had guided. [28]
For Q4 2025, Intel guided to:
- Revenue in the $12.8–13.8 billion range.
- Non‑GAAP EPS of $0.08, with GAAP EPS expected to be negative due to restructuring and other charges. [29]
Analyst estimates compiled by Yahoo Finance and MarketBeat suggest Wall Street still expects full‑year 2025 earnings per share to be slightly negative, even after the Q3 beat and raised guidance. [30]
So while execution is clearly improving compared with Intel’s recent history, the financial picture still reflects:
- Heavy investment in manufacturing and AI.
- Foundry losses that drag on margins.
- The lingering impact of PC and server market share erosion versus AMD, which both independent analysis and brokerage research continue to highlight. [31]
What analysts are forecasting for Intel stock
After the latest rally, Intel stock now trades above most published 12‑month price targets, which helps explain why the consensus tone is cautious despite improved sentiment.
Across several major platforms:
- MarketBeat aggregates 34 analysts with a consensus rating of “Reduce” and an average price target of about $34.84, with a range from $20 to $52. That implies double‑digit downside from prices around $40–41. [32]
- TipRanks reports a consensus rating effectively around Hold/Neutral, with about 34 analysts and an average target near $36.07 (high $52, low $20). [33]
- StockAnalysis puts the average price target at roughly $31.98, also with a Hold consensus and the same $20–$52 range. [34]
- Investing.com similarly shows a “Neutral” consensus from 36 analysts and an average target of about $37.3. [35]
Taken together, that picture looks something like this:
- Wall Street broadly views Intel as a work‑in‑progress, not a clear bargain or a bubble.
- Average targets cluster from the low‑ to mid‑$30s, below the current price after the Apple rumor spike.
- Only a small minority of analysts have issued outright Buy ratings; most are in the Hold/Neutral camp, with a meaningful chunk still recommending Sell or Underperform. [36]
In other words: the stock price has moved faster than the analyst models, at least for now.
Technical backdrop: extended, but not obviously broken
Short‑term technical and trading indicators reflect exactly what the headlines suggest: an overheated stock trying to find its footing.
Recent analysis notes that:
- Intel shares fell roughly 7–7.5% on December 4, after a nearly 33% run‑up over two weeks, leaving the trend still positive but clearly stretched. [37]
- Technical tools such as RSI and moving averages show mixed signals: one widely‑followed technical dashboard pegs RSI around 40, with the 50‑day moving average near $39 and the 200‑day near $38, suggesting the stock is above longer‑term support but no longer in extreme overbought territory. [38]
For traders, that pattern often signals a potential consolidation phase: big news is priced in, momentum cools, and the stock chops sideways while investors wait for the next catalyst.
Key upside drivers for Intel stock
From a fundamental perspective, the bullish thesis for Intel stock in late 2025 hinges on several big “if this works…” arguments:
1. Foundry execution actually hits its targets
If Intel successfully ramps 18A and 18A‑P on time, delivers competitive yields and performance, and secures meaningful external customers (Apple, MediaTek, hyperscalers, others), it could transform from a troubled IDM into a geopolitically critical foundry powerhouse. [39]
2. Apple validation opens the floodgates
Even a limited Apple deal would serve as a stamp of quality that might encourage other chip designers to diversify away from TSMC and Samsung. The revenue from Apple’s low‑end M‑series alone isn’t game‑changing – but the signal to the industry would be. [40]
3. Government backing lowers existential risk
A near‑10% U.S. government stake and over $11 billion in public funding dramatically reduce the odds of a worst‑case scenario in which Intel’s balance sheet simply can’t sustain its capex plans. Governments rarely let cornerstone national‑security suppliers fail quietly. [41]
4. AI and PC cycles could gradually heal margins
If Intel can stabilize or recapture PC and server CPU share while ramping more competitive AI accelerators – even at modest market shares – its legacy businesses plus AI could support meaningfully higher earnings power than current negative‑EPS numbers suggest. [42]
Key risks and bear arguments
On the other side of the ledger, the bear case is equally stark:
1. Foundry may never fully pay off
Even optimistic analysis acknowledges that Intel’s foundry push is enormously capital intensive and could remain loss‑making for years. Any serious delay, yield issue, or customer disappointment at 18A or 14A could force write‑downs and strategic reversals, something already hinted at in coverage of internal debates around emphasizing 14A versus 18A. [43]
2. AI competition is brutal
Nvidia and AMD are not standing still. Intel’s cancelled Falcon Shores project and still‑evolving Gaudi/Jaguar Shores roadmap highlight how difficult it has been for the company to carve out a durable niche in high‑end AI accelerators. [44]
3. Structural margin pressure and layoffs
Years of underperformance have forced Intel into restructuring and layoffs, including recent job cuts in Oregon that triggered WARN Act scrutiny. That can improve costs but also risks talent loss and culture damage just when execution needs to be sharpest. [45]
4. Political and geopolitical exposure
With the U.S. government as a major shareholder and fabs spread across politically sensitive regions, Intel is deeply exposed to trade policy, export controls, and national‑security priorities – factors its own filings highlight as material risks. [46]
Is Intel stock a buy right now?
From the perspective of December 5, 2025, the picture is nuanced:
- Intel stock has more than doubled this year and recently hit new 52‑week highs, largely on expectations of a successful foundry and AI turnaround, not on current profits. [47]
- Most analyst models still point to fair value below the current share price, with consensus targets in the low‑ to mid‑$30s and ratings skewed toward Hold/Neutral/Reduce rather than Strong Buy. [48]
- At the same time, the upside scenario is extraordinary: if Intel really does re‑establish process leadership, sign marquee foundry customers, and scale AI products, today’s price could end up looking conservative in hindsight.
Practically speaking, Intel now trades like a high‑beta turnaround stock:
- Aggressive investors who believe in the foundry comeback and Apple/AI tailwinds may view pullbacks like the December 4 dip as opportunities – with the understanding that execution risk is huge and volatility is likely here to stay.
- More conservative investors may note the combination of negative 2025 EPS, heavy capex, mixed AI execution, and analyst targets below spot, and decide to wait for clearer evidence that profits are catching up with the narrative.
Final note: this is not personal investment advice
All of the above is news and analysis, not a personalized recommendation to buy, sell, or hold Intel stock. Intel’s prospects now depend on a rare combination of:
- flawless engineering execution,
- disciplined capital allocation,
- winning back customers it has previously lost, and
- navigating an unusually political role in the global chip supply chain.
Anyone considering an investment in INTC should look at their own risk tolerance, time horizon, and portfolio – and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before making decisions. Past performance, especially in a year as wild as 2025, is no guarantee of future results.
References
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