New York — Friday, December 26, 2025 (2:06 p.m. ET).
Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) is trading in a typically thinner, post-holiday U.S. session—yet the chipmaker remains one of the market’s most closely watched turnaround stories as investors weigh a year of headline-making capital infusions, shifting foundry expectations, and major product milestones slated for early 2026.
As of early afternoon in New York, Intel stock is around $36.23, up about 0.18% on the day, after moving between $35.87 and $36.42. Trading volume is a little over 18 million shares.
Intel stock price vs. the market today
Intel’s modest move comes while broader U.S. equities and chip exposure are showing a slightly more constructive tone:
- The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is essentially flat (down about 0.02%).
- The Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) is slightly higher (up about 0.09%).
- Semiconductor ETFs are firmer: SOXX is up about 0.20%, while SMH is up about 0.71%.
That matters for Intel because 2025’s rally in mega-cap tech and AI-adjacent names has lifted sentiment across semiconductors—but Intel’s own performance is being set by a more specific set of “prove it” milestones: manufacturing execution, foundry customer traction, and whether new partnerships translate into durable earnings power.
Why Intel is still a headline stock into the final trading days of 2025
Intel’s shares have had a dramatic year—Reuters reported the stock had risen nearly 90% in 2025 at one point—largely powered by a wave of strategic and political capital events that refocused attention on Intel’s U.S. manufacturing footprint and its role in the AI hardware ecosystem. [1]
But the rally hasn’t erased skepticism. Intel remains notably below its 52-week high—MarketWatch data cited a 52-week high of $44.02 (Dec. 3, 2025), with Intel still well under that level later in December. [2]
For investors, the key question into 2026 is straightforward: Was 2025 the start of a multi-year operational recovery—or a financing-driven re-rating that now needs fundamental follow-through?
The big 2025 pillars: Washington, Nvidia, and SoftBank
1) The U.S. government becomes an Intel shareholder (and why it matters)
In a landmark deal announced by Intel on Aug. 22, 2025, the company said the U.S. government would make an $8.9 billion investment in Intel common stock, equating to a 9.9% stake (433.3 million primary shares at $20.47 per share). Intel said the stake would be passive (no board seat) and included a five-year warrant (at $20/share) tied to Intel maintaining control of its foundry business. [3]
Intel also detailed how the government stake would be funded: $5.7 billion of previously awarded but unpaid CHIPS Act grants plus $3.2 billion tied to a Secure Enclave program award, bringing total government investment described by Intel to $11.1 billion when including prior CHIPS grants received. [4]
This deal remains central to the Intel stock narrative because it:
- strengthens Intel’s balance sheet optics,
- signals industrial-policy support for advanced domestic manufacturing,
- and, just as importantly, adds political and reputational complexity that can amplify volatility around Washington headlines. [5]
2) Nvidia’s $5B stake + product collaboration (big upside, but not a blank check)
Intel and Nvidia announced a major collaboration on Sept. 18, 2025, positioning Intel to design and manufacture custom x86 CPUs that Nvidia plans to integrate into AI infrastructure platforms, and to build x86 SoCs integrating Nvidia RTX GPU chiplets for PCs. The announcement also included Nvidia investing $5 billion in Intel stock at $23.28 per share, subject to regulatory approvals and other closing conditions. [6]
Reuters reported the Nvidia deal helped trigger a sharp positive market reaction when announced and would leave Nvidia with roughly a 4% stake after issuance of new shares. [7]
3) SoftBank’s $2B investment (confidence signal, but smaller than the headlines)
Intel and SoftBank disclosed a $2 billion SoftBank investment agreement (announced Aug. 18, 2025), with SoftBank paying $23 per share (also subject to customary closing conditions). [8]
Reuters described this as a “lifeline” vote of confidence amid Intel’s turnaround, while also noting that SoftBank was not seeking a board seat and (per a source) was not committing to buy Intel chips. [9]
The newest pressure point: Nvidia and Intel’s 18A foundry narrative
One reason Intel is not simply “rising with the chip tide” today is that recent reporting has challenged the most bullish interpretation of Intel’s foundry momentum.
A Reuters report published Dec. 24, 2025 said Nvidia had tested Intel’s 18A manufacturing process but stopped moving forward, citing two people familiar with the matter—an unsettling datapoint for a turnaround narrative that depends heavily on proving Intel can win and retain external foundry customers. [10]
This does not automatically mean Intel’s broader Nvidia partnership is collapsing (the partnership includes multiple layers—product collaboration, equity investment, and manufacturing/packaging ambitions). But it does highlight the market’s core concern: Intel’s manufacturing recovery is not linear, and external customers can hesitate—especially at the bleeding edge. [11]
The fundamental bull case for INTC into 2026
Panther Lake: a near-term “show me” product on Intel 18A
Reuters reported Intel’s upcoming Panther Lake laptop processor is the first chip built on Intel’s next-generation 18A production process, aimed at high-end AI-enabled laptops. Intel told Reuters that Panther Lake’s integrated CPU and GPU performance would be 50% faster than Lunar Lake, and that the first unit is slated to ship before the end of 2025, with broad availability expected January 2026. [12]
For the stock, this matters because Panther Lake’s success would:
- validate 18A as a real, manufacturable node (not just a roadmap slide),
- support Intel’s ability to defend or regain PC share,
- and potentially improve bargaining power in foundry discussions with external customers. [13]
Fab 52 + Clearwater Forest: data-center efficiency narrative
In the same Reuters reporting, Intel’s Arizona facility Fab 52 was described as “fully operational,” with Intel aiming for high-volume production using 18A later in 2025. Reuters also reported Intel’s Clearwater Forest server processor (launch expected in the first half of 2026) will be made at that fab, and Intel expects it can compete in AI data centers on power efficiency even while Nvidia dominates AI GPUs. [14]
“Under-shipping demand”: Intel’s more optimistic demand signal
Intel’s October earnings coverage from Reuters included a notable demand comment from CFO David Zinsner: he said Intel was tight on supply and “under-shipping demand,” describing it as a “high-class problem.” [15]
He also argued that data-center operators increasingly see CPU upgrades as necessary alongside advanced AI chips to improve power/performance and build AI applications. [16]
The bear case: execution, yields, and the cost of time
Yields and margins remain the biggest “risk variable”
The sharpest risk for Intel’s stock is that manufacturing progress does not translate into healthy economics fast enough.
In Reuters’ October reporting, Zinsner said Intel’s 18A yields were not yet where they need to be for appropriate margins and that yields might not reach an “industry-acceptable level” until 2027. [17]
Separately, Reuters’ August reporting described internal yield hurdles and defect levels during 18A development, outlining how difficult it is to ramp a complex node while protecting profitability. [18]
Capex intensity is still huge
Intel’s turnaround is capital-hungry. Reuters reported Intel planned $27 billion in capital expenditures for 2025 versus $17 billion in 2024 (as discussed around its October results). [19]
That spending can build a moat—but it can also squeeze free cash flow and keep investors focused on financing risk, dilution, and long-dated payoffs.
Strategy churn: 18A vs. 14A debate is still alive
Reuters also reported in July 2025 that CEO Lip-Bu Tan was exploring a significant shift in the foundry strategy—considering a move that would refocus attention toward 14A, with potential write-offs for 18A that could cost hundreds of millions of dollars (per the report). [20]
Even if Intel ultimately executes 18A successfully, the mere existence of strategic re-evaluation adds uncertainty—especially for customers who must commit years in advance.
Leadership: Tan’s “engineering-first” reset and the AI org reshuffle
Intel’s market story is now tightly linked to CEO Lip-Bu Tan, who took the top job in March 2025.
Reuters reported in April 2025 that Tan flattened Intel’s leadership structure, with major chip groups reporting directly to him, and that Intel promoted Sachin Katti to a combined chief technology and AI officer role as part of a broader turnaround and “leaner” operating model. [21]
For investors, this matters because Intel’s core problem in recent years has been execution (manufacturing and product) while rivals accelerated in AI. Management structure changes can improve speed—but they are not, by themselves, proof of product-market wins.
Wall Street forecasts: why consensus remains “cautious” even after the rally
Despite the big 2025 move, many analysts still frame Intel as a “wait for proof” stock rather than a clean bullish consensus idea.
TipRanks data published this month described Intel’s consensus as Hold, with 5 Buys, 20 Holds, and 6 Sells over the prior three months, and an average price target around $38.20 (roughly mid-single-digit upside from mid-$36 levels). [22]
A Nasdaq-hosted analysis (from The Motley Fool) similarly noted that—among a larger coverage universe—only a small share of analysts rate Intel a buy, with many staying on the sidelines and a median price target around $39 (implying limited upside or even modest downside depending on the reference price). [23]
The common thread across bullish and cautious takes is consistent:
- If Panther Lake ramps cleanly and Intel proves credible foundry execution, the stock can justify a higher “turnaround multiple.”
- If not, the market can quickly refocus on capex burden, competitive gaps in AI accelerators, and slower earnings normalization. [24]
Macro backdrop: year-end mood is supportive, but catalysts are close
Today’s Intel trade is happening against a year-end market backdrop that is generally constructive.
Reuters’ week-ahead coverage emphasized that the S&P 500 was pushing toward a major psychological level (7,000), with investors looking for an upbeat finish to a strong year—while also noting the calendar includes the release of Federal Reserve meeting minutes next week. [25]
The Associated Press also described the post-holiday session as a period when markets can drift on lighter volume—sometimes making individual-stock moves feel sharper than usual. [26]
For Intel specifically, the macro takeaway is: risk appetite is not the main obstacle right now—execution credibility is.
What investors should watch into the close (and before the next session)
The U.S. stock market is open as of this writing, but because many readers catch up after the bell—or plan for the next session—here are the practical, news-driven items that are most likely to matter for INTC in the near term:
- Follow-through (or clarifications) on the Nvidia/18A testing narrative
The market is sensitive to any confirmation, denial, or nuance around whether major customers are merely “testing” Intel nodes or committing to production. Reuters reporting this week has kept that question front and center. [27] - Confirmation of closings and cash timing around equity investments
In October, Reuters reported Intel’s CFO said the company had received SoftBank money in Q3 but had not yet received Nvidia’s cash at that time—investors often watch filings and company updates for when “announced” becomes “settled.” [28] - Any update on 18A yields and margin trajectory
Intel’s own commentary (via Reuters coverage) suggests the yield-to-margin journey is measured in quarters and years—not weeks—and 2027 has been cited as a key point for “industry-acceptable” yields. [29] - Earnings date watch: late January is the market’s expectation, but not confirmed
Wall Street Horizon lists Intel’s next earnings as unconfirmed, with a forecast of Thursday, Jan. 29, 2026 (after market) based on historical patterns. Until Intel confirms, treat all calendars as estimates. [30]
For official company materials, Intel’s Investor Relations hub is the best place to monitor filings, releases, and event links. [31] - Liquidity and headline risk in holiday-adjacent sessions
Post-holiday trading can magnify moves on relatively small bursts of news. If you’re trading outside the core session, spreads can widen and price moves can look more dramatic than in a normal, high-volume week. [32]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.marketwatch.com, 3. newsroom.intel.com, 4. newsroom.intel.com, 5. newsroom.intel.com, 6. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.intc.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.tipranks.com, 23. www.nasdaq.com, 24. www.tipranks.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. apnews.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.wallstreethorizon.com, 31. www.intc.com, 32. apnews.com
