SANTA CLARA, Calif., Jan 21, 2026, 07:44 PST
- Intel shares jumped about 10% in early trade as investors positioned for results due after Thursday’s close.
- Stifel said the core debate is whether margins can inflect as Intel ramps its 18A chipmaking process.
- Bulls point to AI data center demand for server CPUs; bears focus on PC share losses and manufacturing execution risk.
Intel shares jumped about 10% to $53.67 in morning trade on Wednesday, extending a sharp rally ahead of the chipmaker’s quarterly report.
Intel is scheduled to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results after the U.S. market closes on Thursday, and will host an earnings call at 2 p.m. Pacific Time. 1
Stifel said investor sentiment is split between a bullish camp looking for a margin turn and a more cautious camp expecting a careful outlook from Tan. “We see Intel in between these two forces,” analysts including Brian Donlin and Stefan Hatfield wrote, adding they expect Tan to “lean conservative with his forecasts.” 2
Under CEO Lip-Bu Tan, Intel has pushed cost cuts and a reshaped manufacturing plan, helped by major outside funding, a Reuters report carried by The Economic Times said. Intel shares gained 84% in 2025, far outpacing the Philadelphia semiconductor index’s 42% rise, and analyst Ryuta Makino at Gabelli Funds said he expects at least a “double-digit” 2026 price hike in server central processing units, or CPUs — the general-purpose chips that run many data center tasks. 3
Analysts expect Intel to report about $13.4 billion in revenue and adjusted earnings of 8 cents per share, Visible Alpha data showed, and options pricing implies traders are braced for roughly an 8% swing after the results. 4
Some brokerages have turned more positive into the print. Seaport Research Partners upgraded Intel to Buy and set a $65 price target, Barron’s reported, arguing the company can regain share as new products arrive, even as many analysts remain cautious after the run-up. 5
A Zacks research note carried by TradingView flagged Intel’s Panther Lake PC platform as a key test of execution and said investors are watching Intel’s 18A manufacturing technology closely. The note also pointed to Intel’s push to expand its foundry business — contract chipmaking for other companies — in a market led by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. 6
Simply Wall St said the investment case increasingly hinges on whether AI-driven demand can support Intel’s server business while the company proves its foundry model can work at scale. It also warned that capacity limits and an unproven foundry operation leave room for very different conclusions on valuation. 7
But the downside case has not gone away. Intel has been losing PC share to rivals such as Advanced Micro Devices and Arm, and analysts have warned higher memory chip prices can raise laptop costs and soften demand; manufacturing “yields” — the share of usable chips per wafer — remain a flashpoint, with gross margin under pressure.
Investors are likely to key on Intel’s guidance for margins, data center demand, and the pace of its 18A ramp and foundry customer traction. Any hint that pricing power in server CPUs is real, and that yields are improving fast enough to support it, could matter as much as the quarter’s headline numbers.
