New York, Jan 24, 2026, 16:19 EST — Market closed.
- Intel shares plunged sharply after earnings, with investors zeroing in on supply constraints rather than demand.
- Management highlighted ongoing tight supply for key chips, despite a pickup in AI-driven data-center orders.
- Traders are now focused on whether supply constraints will loosen this quarter and if the turnaround story will stick.
Intel (INTC) shares ended Friday at $45.07, tumbling 17% after hitting a session low of $44.25 amid heavy volume. With U.S. markets closed Saturday, the stock heads into Monday’s open under pressure.
The weekend didn’t shift the fundamentals. Intel’s recent guidance sharpened a narrative investors had seen as a steady recovery, refocusing attention on execution over vision.
The key issue now is that supply bottlenecks can limit revenue, even with strong demand. That’s a tough reality for a stock that had been rallying quickly ahead of earnings and attracting more speculative investors.
Intel reported fourth-quarter revenue of $13.7 billion, down 4% year-over-year, with adjusted EPS at $0.15, in a release late Thursday. The company forecast first-quarter revenue between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion, with non-GAAP EPS at zero. It also expects a non-GAAP gross margin around 34.5%. CEO Lip-Bu Tan said Intel is pushing “aggressively to grow supply,” while CFO David Zinsner noted supply availability should hit its lowest point in Q1 before improving in Q2 and beyond. (Intc)
On the earnings call, Tan said he was “disappointed” that Intel couldn’t fully meet demand. Factories are running at capacity but still falling short on server CPUs for AI accelerator applications in data centers. Two customers are now reviewing the technical specs of Intel’s upcoming 14A manufacturing process—part of its foundry strategy aimed at contract chipmaking for external designers. Executives expect to know by year-end whether those customers will go ahead. The forecast suggests a break-even adjusted profit for Q1, compared to Wall Street’s 5 cents a share estimate, Reuters reported, citing LSEG data. (Reuters)
Friday’s selloff came after a January surge that pushed the stock sharply higher, leaving little margin for error. TD Cowen noted the rally was fueled more by “the dream” than by solid near-term fundamentals. Bernstein suggested Intel seemed blindsided by the server cycle. Jefferies predicts the shortage might hit bottom in March, while Oppenheimer expects constraints to ease by the second quarter. Intel also flagged a memory-chip shortage that could drag on PC demand. (Reuters)
The tape highlighted just how isolated Intel’s decline was. Nvidia and AMD wrapped up Friday with gains, even as broad semiconductor ETFs dipped around 1%—a modest retreat compared to Intel’s fall.
Intel submitted an SEC filing Friday, updating a resale registration linked to a warrant and shares held by the U.S. Department of Commerce. The company clarified no new securities were issued and it won’t get proceeds from any sales. Still, some investors may view the registration as a potential supply overhang. (SEC)
The risk scenario is clear: if supply easing lags behind management’s timeline, the company could end up “leaving sales on the table” for longer. Margins will remain squeezed if manufacturing yields—the percentage of usable chips per wafer—don’t pick up quickly. Factor in rising component costs that push PC prices higher, and it’s easy to understand why traders have been trimming their positions.
The next key date is Monday, Jan. 26. Investors will be looking out for follow-up broker notes, updates on supply timing, and whether Intel’s stock can find footing after two days of sharp swings post-earnings.
