New York, January 25, 2026, 16:35 EST — The market has closed for the day.
- Intel shares closed at $45.07, tumbling roughly 17% on Friday following a disappointing first-quarter forecast.
- The company warned of supply constraints despite ongoing high demand for data-center processors.
- Traders enter Monday focused on whether selling pressure will continue and looking for new signs of when supply constraints might loosen.
Intel’s stock ended Friday down 17.0% at $45.07, then dipped another 1.8% in after-hours trading, putting the chipmaker on the back foot as the new week begins. (Investing)
This shift is significant since Intel’s surge through mid-January had made the stock a popular turnaround play. When a chipmaker reports shipment delays, investors tend to slash near-term earnings estimates — regardless of healthy demand.
Intel released its quarterly results Thursday, projecting first-quarter revenue between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion. The company expects non-GAAP earnings to hold steady at $0.00 per share. CEO Lip-Bu Tan highlighted efforts to boost supply, while CFO David Zinsner warned that available supply will hit its lowest point in Q1, with improvements anticipated in Q2 and beyond. (Intel Corporation)
Executives admitted they underestimated how fast demand would surge for server central processors powering AI data centers—chips that usually work alongside Nvidia’s graphics units. “In the short term, I’m disappointed that we are not able to fully meet the demand,” Tan told analysts. Zinsner added that cloud customers “were all a little bit caught off guard” as factories ran full tilt and production adjustments lagged. Tan also noted Intel’s 18A process yields—the percentage of usable chips per wafer—are “still below what I want them to be,” a bottleneck that could tighten margins. (Reuters)
Some Wall Street desks argued the stock had outpaced near-term fundamentals. TD Cowen analysts noted the rally was driven more by “the dream” than actual near-term conditions. Bernstein acknowledged the “server cycle seems real” but said Intel “misjudged it” with its capacity footprint. Jefferies pointed to supply tightness bottoming out in March, while Oppenheimer expects constraints to ease by Q2. (Reuters)
The selloff sparked a shift toward concrete results rather than future potential in the AI sector. “It’s going to be a period of the haves versus the have-nots, and I personally don’t see Intel being in the haves,” said Julian McManus, portfolio manager at Janus Henderson. Several megacap tech giants—including Apple, Tesla, and Microsoft—are set to report earnings next week. (Reuters)
Intel also revealed it submitted a resale prospectus supplement related to a warrant and common stock deal with the U.S. Department of Commerce. The company emphasized no new securities were issued, and the filing doesn’t guarantee the selling securityholder will offload shares; Intel wouldn’t gain any proceeds if sales happen. (SEC)
Investors are less focused on whether Intel has customers and more on its ability to produce enough chips with solid margins. This issue is trickier to trade since even minor changes in supply forecasts can rapidly alter expectations.
The danger is that “improving in Q2” slips to “later this year,” or that weak manufacturing yields hold profits down despite higher shipments. If so, expect the stock to remain volatile, with any rally likely to be sold into.
U.S. markets reopen Monday, January 26, with eyes on Intel after Friday’s sell-off. Traders will be looking for signs of stabilization and any fresh analyst updates or supply-chain insights that might shift sentiment.
