New York, Jan 26, 2026, 17:42 EST — After-hours
- Shares dropped roughly 5.7%, closing at $42.49 in after-hours trading.
- Intel’s weak first-quarter outlook and ongoing data-center CPU supply constraints continue to weigh on investors.
- Attention now turns to potential supply improvements in March and Q2, while the Fed’s Wednesday decision looms in the background.
Intel shares dropped roughly 5.7% on Monday, closing near $42.49 in after-hours trading. Roughly 149 million shares traded hands.
The slide is significant because Intel’s narrative has reversed quickly: demand appears robust, yet the company admits it can’t meet shipment targets. That’s a tough spot for a stock that was valued on a smooth rebound.
The decline comes after a 17% plunge on Friday when Intel’s forecast fell short of expectations, despite U.S. indexes climbing ahead of a week loaded with mega-cap tech earnings and a Federal Reserve policy update. 1
Intel reported difficulty meeting demand for its server CPUs aimed at AI data centers. The company projected first-quarter revenue between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion, falling short of the $12.51 billion consensus from analysts, according to LSEG data. Its adjusted earnings per share forecast came in at break-even, missing the 5-cent expectation. CEO Lip-Bu Tan expressed disappointment over the unmet demand. 2
Intel reported fourth-quarter revenue of $13.7 billion with non-GAAP earnings per share coming in at 15 cents. For the first quarter, it expects a GAAP loss per share of 21 cents and a flat non-GAAP EPS of zero. CFO David Zinsner noted that supply will hit its lowest point in Q1 before picking up later in the year. Meanwhile, CEO Tan highlighted the launch of the first Intel 18A products as a key step in boosting production capacity. 3
Analysts have grown more direct. TD Cowen noted the recent surge was fueled more by “the dream” than by near-term fundamentals. Bernstein acknowledged the server cycle seemed genuine but said Intel was caught off guard on capacity. Jefferies marked March as the low point for supply, while Oppenheimer expects constraints to ease in the second quarter. Tan also mentioned two customers are still just evaluating technical details of Intel’s upcoming 14A process, leaving major external foundry wins uncertain. 4
A shortage of memory chips is straining the PC supply chain, a headache for Intel since PCs still account for a significant slice of its sales. The company expects the squeeze to ease down the road, but the upcoming months are likely to remain unsettled. 5
The downside scenario is straightforward. Barron’s quoted Tan noting that yields are getting better but haven’t reached top-tier levels yet, while Zinsner warned memory-price shifts might pose bigger challenges as the year progresses—precisely the kind of factors that could squeeze margins even if demand stays steady. 6
Wednesday brings the Fed’s latest move, with the FOMC statement set for 2:00 p.m. ET and a press briefing to follow at 2:30 p.m. ET. Investors in Intel will be looking closely for hints that supply constraints might ease as we head into March and Q2, while also seeing if the stock can hold its ground when trading kicks off on Tuesday. 7
