Intel Stock Today: Apple Foundry Rumors, $208M Malaysia Bet and a U‑Turn on NEX – What It All Means for INTC Investors (5 December 2025)

Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) is closing out 2025 as one of the market’s most dramatic turnaround stories. After being left for dead during the 2022–2024 slump, the chipmaker’s share price has roughly doubled this year, driven by massive government and strategic investments, renewed confidence in its manufacturing roadmap, and fresh speculation about Apple returning as a customer. ^[1]

On 5 December 2025, Intel stock is trading around the low‑$40s (about $42–43 per share), rebounding from a 7.4% slide the previous day that briefly knocked the price down to roughly $40.50. ^[2] Volatility is elevated as investors digest a cluster of big headlines:

A $208 million expansion of Intel’s operations in Malaysia
A high‑profile U‑turn on plans to sell its networking and edge (NEX) division
Persistent rumors that Apple may tap Intel’s 18A process to manufacture future M‑series chips
A government‑backed rescue that handed the U.S. a 10% equity stake in Intel

At the same time, Wall Street’s fundamental view remains cautious: consensus 12‑month price targets sit well below today’s trading levels, and several research shops classify the stock as “Reduce” or equivalent. ^[3]

Below is a detailed, news‑focused breakdown of what’s moving Intel stock right now, and how analysts, forecasts, and recent data fit together as of 5 December 2025.

Intel Stock Price Action: A Sharp Drop, Then a Bounce

On 4 December 2025, Intel shares fell about 7.4% in a single session, sliding from a prior close of $43.76 to around $40.50 on heavy trading volume of more than 103 million shares. ^[4] That pullback came after weeks of enthusiasm fueled by government funding deals, strategic investors, and foundry optimism.

Trefis notes that the one‑day drop reflected renewed concern over Intel’s decision to retain its networking and communications unit rather than spin it out, as well as questions about how resilient the stock might be if broader markets wobble. ^[5]

Even after that hit, Intel remains one of 2025’s standout comeback names. A Forbes analysis in mid‑October pegged the stock’s year‑to‑date gain at about 80%, driven largely by big‑ticket investments from the U.S. government, Nvidia, and SoftBank. ^[6] A separate total‑return tracker now shows Intel up roughly 100% in 2025 including reinvested dividends (which are currently suspended), underscoring just how far the stock has run from its lows. ^[7]

That surge is precisely why many analysts are preaching caution despite the improving news flow.

This Week’s Major Intel News Drivers

1. $208 Million Malaysia Expansion Underscores Advanced Packaging Push

On 2 December 2025, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim confirmed that Intel will invest an additional 860 million ringgit (about $208 million) to expand assembly and testing operations in the country. ^[8]

Key points from coverage and local reports:

The new investment builds on Intel’s earlier $7 billion commitment (announced in 2021) to construct an advanced chip packaging plant in Penang, now nearing completion. ^[9]
The expansion strengthens Malaysia’s role as a global hub for semiconductor packaging and testing, and is expected to support thousands of jobs and bolster local exports. ^[10]
Strategically, the move helps Intel scale advanced packaging capacity – a critical bottleneck in the AI and data‑center era – and reduce over‑reliance on any single geography.

For investors, the Malaysia news signals that Intel is doubling down on advanced packaging as a differentiator in its foundry strategy, positioning itself as an alternative to TSMC’s tightly‑constrained CoWoS capacity.

2. Intel Keeps Its Networking and Edge (NEX) Unit After Strategic Review

Perhaps the most consequential development this week is Intel’s decision not to spin off or sell its networking and communications unit (NEX) after months of exploring strategic options.

On 3 December 2025, Intel said it will retain the NEX business in‑house, arguing that tighter integration between silicon, software, and systems better serves AI, data center, and edge workloads. ^[11]

Why it matters:

Intel had been openly evaluating asset sales to shore up its finances after years of heavy losses and missed execution in its foundry business. ^[12]
The company’s financial position has dramatically improved in 2025, helped by:
- an $8.9 billion U.S. government investment for roughly a 10% equity stake in Intel,
- a $5 billion investment from Nvidia, and
- $2 billion from SoftBank. ^[13]
With that capital in hand, Intel concluded that keeping NEX inside the company would create more value than selling it, given its role connecting Intel’s CPUs, accelerators, and AI systems at the network and edge. ^[14]

Some investors initially saw the reversal as a negative surprise, contributing to Thursday’s share‑price drop. Trefis and others argue that it adds execution risk because Intel must now both fix and fully fund another complex, low‑margin business rather than offloading it. ^[15]

3. Apple Foundry Rumors Fire Up Long‑Term Hopes

Another major narrative driving Intel stock in late November and early December is the renewed prospect of Apple becoming an Intel Foundry customer.

Multiple reports over the past week, citing supply‑chain analyst Ming‑Chi Kuo, claim Apple is evaluating Intel’s upcoming 18A process to manufacture entry‑level M‑series chips for future MacBook Air and iPad Pro models as early as 2027: ^[16]

Intel has already delivered a pre‑release 18A process design kit (PDK) to Apple, and early internal tests are said to be moving smoothly. ^[17]
The potential deal would likely cover lower‑end M‑class SoCs – maybe on the order of 20 million units annually – a meaningful volume for Intel’s foundry business but not enough to displace TSMC as Apple’s primary supplier. ^[18]
For Apple, the move would diversify manufacturing away from TSMC and align with U.S. political pressure to on‑shore more advanced chip production.

Investopedia notes that Intel’s stock surged more than 10% during a shortened trading session last week on the back of these Apple rumors, and that shares have roughly doubled over the year as investors warm to the foundry turnaround story. ^[19]

Crucially, no deal has been confirmed. Both Apple and Intel have declined to comment, and the rumored production window (2027) leaves plenty of time for things to change. Still, even the prospect of Apple as an anchor customer is seen as a powerful validation of Intel’s manufacturing roadmap if it materializes.

4. Foundry 18A and 14A: “Momentum” but Yields Still a Work in Progress

Beyond Apple, Intel’s foundry ambitions are in the spotlight thanks to comments from senior executives and external analysts this week:

At UBS’s Global Technology and AI Conference, Intel’s VP of Corporate Planning John Pitzer said the company has “massive optimism” around its 18A and future 14A nodes and is seeing month‑on‑month, predictable yield improvement – though yields are not yet at the desired level. ^[20]
Wccftech reports that Intel is mass‑producing Panther Lake client CPUs on 18A, with retail systems expected to debut at CES in early January, and has shown first demos of its Xeon 6+ (Clearwater Forest) server chips on 18A, aimed at power‑efficient data‑center workloads. ^[21]
PC Gamer highlights analyst Patrick Moorhead’s view that Intel’s 14A node could be the “real deal,” building on 18A’s foundation and serving as a critical step in winning more external foundry customers. ^[22]

Intel executives are also stressing advanced packaging (EMIB, Foveros, etc.) as a major opportunity, noting that early demand came from customers seeking “spillover” capacity when TSMC’s CoWoS was constrained and has since evolved into more strategic relationships. ^[23]

For shareholders, these remarks are a reminder: the bullish case on Intel depends heavily on successful execution of leading‑edge manufacturing and packaging – something the company struggled with for much of the last decade.

U.S. Government Stake: A $8.9 Billion Bet on Intel’s Turnaround

Another structural pillar of the Intel story in 2025 is the U.S. government’s 10% equity stake in the company.

In August, Intel announced a historic agreement under which the U.S. government would invest $8.9 billion in Intel common stock, funded via CHIPS Act and related programs, in exchange for roughly a 10% stake and warrants tied to control of the foundry business. ^[24]

Key implications:

The deal front‑loads grants that were initially tied to execution milestones, effectively recapitalizing Intel at a critical moment in its turnaround. ^[25]
It also gives the government a powerful seat at the table in a company viewed as strategically essential to domestic semiconductor manufacturing. ^[26]

Critics, including Senator Elizabeth Warren and other economists, have questioned whether taxpayers are adequately protected from offshoring, layoffs, and buybacks under the arrangement. ^[27] But from a market perspective, the stake has helped ease immediate solvency fears around Intel’s capital‑intensive foundry pivot.

Earnings Snapshot and 2025–2026 Outlook

Q3 2025: Margins Recover, But Guidance Stays Cautious

Intel’s Q3 2025 earnings, reported on 23 October, were widely viewed as a step in the right direction:

Revenue: $13.7 billion, up 3% year‑over‑year.
GAAP EPS: $0.90 vs. a loss of $3.88 a year earlier.
Non‑GAAP EPS: $0.23 vs. a $0.46 loss in Q3 2024. ^[28]
Gross margin roughly doubled year‑over‑year, rising from the mid‑teens to around 38–40% on a reported and non‑GAAP basis. ^[29]

Segment trends were mixed:

Client Computing Group (PCs): $8.5B, +5% YoY
Data Center & AI (DCAI): $4.1B, –1% YoY
Intel Foundry revenue (before eliminations): $4.2B, –2% YoY ^[30]

For Q4 2025, Intel guided to:

Revenue of $12.8–13.8 billion
GAAP EPS of approximately –$0.14 and non‑GAAP EPS around $0.08, excluding deconsolidated Altera results ^[31]

That guidance signals ongoing pressure from restructuring costs, foundry losses, and complex accounting for U.S. government funding.

Street Forecasts: Slow Grind Back to Profitability

Consensus models compiled by StockAnalysis suggest a modest revenue recovery and still‑thin earnings over the next two years: ^[32]

2025 revenue: ~$53.6B (+1% YoY)
2026 revenue: ~$54.7B (+2% YoY)
2025 EPS: about $0.35, a dramatic improvement from a –$4.38 loss in 2024
2026 EPS: around $0.59, still implying a very high forward P/E at today’s share price

In other words, the market rally has run far ahead of near‑term earnings power. Much of Intel’s valuation now reflects confidence in 2027+ foundry profits and AI‑driven growth, not what the company is earning today.

Wall Street’s Call on Intel: “Reduce” With Downside Risk

Despite the impressive share‑price recovery, most analysts remain neutral to negative on Intel.

MarketBeat, which aggregates the latest ratings from 34 Wall Street analysts, shows: ^[33]

Consensus rating: “Reduce”
Breakdown: 8 Sell, 24 Hold, just 2 Buy ratings
Average 12‑month price target:$34.84, implying roughly 18% downside from a recent quote of about $42.50
Target range: low of $20, high of $52

Recent rating actions highlight the split in views:

Tigress Financial maintains a Strong Buy with a price target raised to $52, suggesting meaningful upside if the turnaround holds. ^[34]
HSBC, by contrast, downgraded Intel from Hold to Reduce in October, even as it lifted its target from $21.25 to $24, calling the rally “overdone” and warning that sustainable upside depends on Intel’s own fab execution, not just external investors or political support. ^[35]

Trefis, which maintains a detailed fundamental model on Intel, currently estimates fair value at $34.47, around 15% below where the stock traded immediately after Thursday’s sell‑off, and classifies the shares as “Unattractive” based on weak recent revenue growth, thin margins, and a stretched P/E multiple. ^[36]

Key Risks Highlighted in Recent Analyses

Analysts and research shops covering Intel this week are emphasizing several major risk factors:

AI and Data‑Center Competition
- Nvidia still dominates the AI accelerator market, with estimates putting its share near 90%, while ARM‑based server platforms continue to gain traction. ^[37]
- Intel’s own AI offerings (Gaudi accelerators, AI‑optimized Xeon, and future GPUs) must prove they can win meaningful share in a crowded field.
Foundry Execution & Capital Intensity
- Intel’s Foundry Services unit reported multi‑billion‑dollar operating losses in 2024; Trefis cites more than $13.4B in losses and warns that the business remains deeply in the red. ^[38]
- Any delays or yield issues on 18A and 14A could derail the turnaround, especially if flagship customers like Apple or Nvidia hesitate to commit.
Macroeconomic & Policy Risk
- The sector faces heightened geopolitical tension, particularly around U.S.–China export controls on advanced AI chips, with new legislation (like the proposed SAFE CHIPS Act) aimed at tightening restrictions. ^[39]
- Intel derives a substantial share of revenue from China, leaving it exposed to retaliatory measures and trade distortions. ^[40]
Balance Sheet, Restructuring and Workforce Cuts
- Intel has announced massive layoffs — more than 15,000 jobs in 2024 and, according to subsequent reports, plans to trim over 20% of its workforce by the end of 2025 — as part of an ongoing cost‑cutting drive under CEO Lip‑Bu Tan. ^[41]
- While these moves support profitability, they also carry execution risk and cultural strain.
Dividend Suspension
- Intel suspended its dividend starting in Q4 2024 following a disastrous quarter and a 26% single‑day share‑price plunge. ^[42]
- As of December 2025, trailing‑12‑month dividend payments are effectively $0, and income‑focused investors may need to look elsewhere until management signals a restart. ^[43]

The Bull Case: Why Some Investors Are Still Excited About INTC

Despite the long list of risks, there is a coherent bullish narrative that explains why Intel shares have doubled this year:

Structural Support: The U.S. government’s equity stake, plus multi‑billion‑dollar investments from Nvidia and SoftBank, dramatically reduced near‑term funding risk and signaled that powerful stakeholders need Intel to succeed. ^[44]
Manufacturing Roadmap: Independent analysts now see real progress in Intel’s 18A and 14A nodes, with early yield ramps and competitive performance claims. If delivered, that could restore some of the manufacturing leadership Intel ceded to TSMC over the last decade. ^[45]
Potential Anchor Customers: Rumored Apple deals and growing interest in Intel’s advanced packaging are viewed as early proof that top‑tier customers may be willing to entrust high‑volume, high‑margin products to Intel’s fabs again. ^[46]
Turnaround Momentum: Articles from Barron’s, Trefis and others highlight that the stock’s 80–100% rally has been powered less by earnings and more by re‑rating — investors assigning a higher multiple as confidence in the turnaround increases. ^[47]

In short, the bull case says: Intel doesn’t have to be perfect – it just has to execute well enough on foundry, AI, and cost cuts for today’s depressed earnings to catch up with the stock price.

So Is Intel Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold on 5 December 2025?

From today’s vantage point:

Intel stock trades well above most published 12‑month analyst targets. ^[48]
The consensus rating is effectively “Sell/Hold”, not “Buy.” ^[49]
Yet, momentum, government backing, and high‑profile rumors (Apple, advanced packaging wins, Malaysia expansion) continue to attract speculative capital and long‑term turnaround believers. ^[50]

For cautious investors, recent Trefis and HSBC pieces essentially argue that the easy money may already be gone, with downside risk if execution stumbles or if macro conditions turn. ^[51]

More aggressive investors might counter that major shifts in ownership (U.S. government, Nvidia, SoftBank), a credible path back to cutting‑edge manufacturing, and the possibility of Apple as a foundry client justify paying up now for earnings that could materialize later in the decade. ^[52]

What’s clear is that Intel is no longer the sleepy dividend value stock it once was. It has become a highly politicized, capital‑intensive turnaround play at the epicenter of AI, geopolitics, and industrial policy.

What to Watch Next

Investors following Intel over the coming weeks and months should keep an eye on:

Q4 2025 Results and 2026 Guidance – especially updated foundry loss figures, capex plans, and any commentary on Apple or other tier‑one foundry customers. ^[53]
Further Government Actions – any changes to export controls (like SAFE CHIPS), additional equity stakes in chipmakers, or conditions attached to existing funding. ^[54]
Concrete Customer Announcements – confirmation (or denial) of Apple‑related deals, plus any new AI, hyperscaler, or advanced packaging wins. ^[55]
Dividend Policy Updates – signals on whether and when Intel might reinstate a dividend once free‑cash‑flow improves. ^[56]

For now, Intel remains a high‑beta, story‑driven stock where headlines can move the price as much as fundamentals.

This article is for informational and news purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or a substitute for independent financial research. Always do your own due diligence and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.