As U.S. traders get ready for Monday’s session, Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ: INTU) sits at the center of three big stories: an AI-powered product cycle, strong recent earnings, and attention‑grabbing insider and institutional moves. Here’s what’s most important to know about Intuit stock before the bell on Monday, December 8, 2025.
Key Takeaways
- Intuit stock is rebounding but still below its highs. Shares last traded around $673.63, giving the company a market cap near $187 billion and placing the price at roughly 45–46x trailing earnings with a dividend yield of about 0.7%. [1]
- Recent results were strong. Fiscal Q1 2026 revenue grew 18% to $3.89 billion, and adjusted EPS came in at $3.34 vs. $3.09 expected, with management guiding to double‑digit revenue growth for the full year and higher Q2 revenue than Wall Street had modeled. [2]
- AI and data are the core of the bull case. Intuit has launched a “virtual team” of AI agents inside QuickBooks and signed a $100+ million multi‑year deal with OpenAI to embed ChatGPT models across its financial tools, reinforcing its strategy as an “AI‑driven expert platform.” [3]
- Wall Street is positive but valuation is debated. Most analysts rate INTU “Moderate Buy” to “Buy” with a 12‑month consensus target around $798, implying mid‑to‑high teens upside, even as some valuation models see the stock trading at a premium multiple relative to the software sector. [4]
- Flows are mixed: big pension fund buying vs. large insider selling. CalPERS boosted its position by 8%, while Amundi cut its stake and founder Scott Cook’s family trust sold roughly $99.5 million of stock this week—though it still holds nearly 6 million shares. [5]
1. Where Intuit Stock Stands After Friday’s Close
Intuit shares finished Friday’s session at about $673.63, up roughly 1.6% on the day and capping a strong week for the TurboTax and QuickBooks owner. [6]
Key snapshot numbers as of the latest close:
- Share price: ~$673.63
- Market cap: ~$187.5 billion
- 52‑week range: ~$532.65 – $813.70
- Trailing P/E: ~45–46
- PEG ratio: ~2.7
- Beta: ~1.27 (a bit more volatile than the market)
- Dividend: $1.20 quarterly ($4.80 annualized), about 0.7% yield, after a recent 15% increase. [7]
According to a fresh valuation note from Simply Wall St, Intuit’s 7‑day share return of 6.24% and year‑to‑date gain of 8.16% suggest momentum has begun to rebuild, and the three‑year total shareholder return of about 72% underlines how rewarding the stock has been over a longer horizon. [8]
For Monday’s open, that backdrop matters: this is not a beaten‑down turnaround story. It’s a high‑quality franchise trading at a premium multiple, with expectations to match.
2. Fresh Headlines Since December 7: Flows, Insiders, and Ownership
2.1 CalPERS Adds to Intuit
On December 7, 2025, MarketBeat reported that the California Public Employees Retirement System (CalPERS) increased its Intuit stake by 8% in Q2, adding 63,660 shares to bring holdings to 860,698 shares, about 0.31% of the company and roughly $678 million at recent prices. Overall, hedge funds and institutions collectively own around 83–90% of Intuit’s float, depending on the dataset. [9]
That kind of concentrated institutional ownership tends to amplify moves when sentiment changes—good or bad.
2.2 Amundi Trims, but Other Giants Step In
Two days earlier, another MarketBeat filing summary showed Amundi cut its position by 20.5%, selling nearly 485,000 shares in Q2 to hold 1.88 million shares (~0.67%) worth about $1.45 billion. [10]
However, the same filing notes that:
- Norges Bank initiated a new position worth about $3.27 billion,
- Price T Rowe Associates now owns just over 9 million shares, after adding more than 649,000 shares, and
- Invesco increased its stake by 13.2%. [11]
Net‑net, large long‑term money is still heavily exposed to Intuit, even if individual funds are adjusting allocations.
2.3 Founder Scott Cook’s ~$100M Stock Sale
The attention‑grabbing headline of the week: director and co‑founder Scott D. Cook has been a notable seller.
- A MarketBeat insider‑activity recap highlighted that Cook sold 75,000 shares at an average price of about $656, trimming his position by a little over 1%. [12]
- An Investing.com breakdown, citing SEC filings, shows Cook’s family trust sold a combined $99.5 million of stock on December 4–5, through dozens of small transactions between roughly $649 and $676 per share. After these sales, the trust still owns about 5.97 million shares. [13]
These trades were made under a pre‑arranged Rule 10b5‑1 plan, which is important: they don’t necessarily signal a change in Cook’s view of the business. But for traders watching insider flows into Monday, it’s a reminder that insiders are taking some chips off the table at current levels.
3. Earnings Recap: Q1 FY 2026 Beat and Guidance
Intuit’s latest numbers, for the quarter ended October 31, 2025, are the foundation of today’s debate around the stock.
According to Intuit’s official release and multiple earnings recaps: [14]
- Revenue: $3.89 billion, +18% year‑on‑year, beating estimates of around $3.76–$3.87 billion.
- Adjusted EPS (non‑GAAP): $3.34, beating the consensus $3.09 by $0.25.
- GAAP EPS: $1.59, more than double the prior year’s quarter.
- Margins: Net margin around 21%, return on equity ~23–24%—very solid profitability.
By segment:
- Global Business Solutions (QuickBooks, payments, etc.): ~18% revenue growth, with QuickBooks Online up about 25%. [15]
- Consumer (TurboTax): low‑20s growth, even though the main tax season is still ahead.
- Credit Karma: re‑accelerating after a softer period, benefiting from improved credit and lending trends. [16]
Looking ahead, management guided for:
- Q2 FY 2026 revenue growth of ~14–15%, ahead of Wall Street’s ~12.8% expectation.
- Q2 adjusted EPS of $3.63–$3.68, below consensus of around $3.83, reflecting heavy AI and product investment.
- Full‑year FY 2026 guidance that implies double‑digit revenue growth and margin expansion, with non‑GAAP EPS in the $22.98–$23.18 range. [17]
For Monday’s trade, those numbers frame the story: fundamentally strong, but with guidance that’s solid rather than blow‑out, leaving room for sentiment to swing based on macro data and AI execution.
4. AI Strategy: OpenAI Deal and Intuit’s “Virtual Team” of Agents
The AI narrative is central to Intuit’s investment case going into 2026.
4.1 $100+ Million OpenAI Partnership
In mid‑November, Reuters reported that Intuit signed a multi‑year deal worth more than $100 million with OpenAI to integrate ChatGPT‑class models into its financial tools. [18]
Key points from that coverage and management commentary:
- OpenAI’s frontier models will power Intuit’s AI agents inside TurboTax, QuickBooks, Credit Karma and Mailchimp.
- Intuit plans to embed its apps directly into ChatGPT, with no revenue share arrangement; instead, the goal is deeper engagement and customer acquisition. [19]
- CEO Sasan Goodarzi says the combination of Intuit’s proprietary financial data, credit models and AI platform with OpenAI’s models is meant to give customers “the financial advantage they need to prosper.” [20]
4.2 QuickBooks AI Agents: Doing the Work for Small Businesses
Separate from the OpenAI deal, Intuit has already started rolling out a “virtual team of AI agents” within QuickBooks:
- These agents handle workflows in CRM, financial analysis, payments and accounting, and Intuit says they can save businesses up to 12 hours a month. [21]
- Customer surveys cited by the company show 78% of users feel Intuit’s AI makes running their business easier, and 68% say it lets them spend more time growing the business. [22]
- Specific agents include:
- Payments Agent, which predicts late payments and automates invoicing and reminders;
- Accounting Agent, which automates bookkeeping and reconciliation;
- Finance Agent, which provides KPI analysis and scenario planning;
- Upcoming Customer and Marketing agents connecting QuickBooks and Mailchimp. [23]
For investors, the AI story is less about near‑term revenue and more about pricing power and retention: if these agents really do become indispensable, they could justify higher subscription tiers and deepen Intuit’s moat.
5. What Wall Street Thinks: Price Targets and Ratings
5.1 Consensus Targets Into 2026
According to MarketBeat’s forecast page, 28 analysts covering Intuit have an average 12‑month price target of about $798.20, with a range from $530 to $900. That implies roughly 18.5% upside from the recent ~$673 share price. [24]
Another aggregator, Stocksguide, shows a slightly higher average target around $839, based on 32 analysts, estimating mid‑20s percent upside, with a high target above $1,000 and a low near $606. [25]
5.2 Ratings: Mostly Buy, With a Few Skeptics
Recent rating summaries show:
- About 1 “Strong Buy,” 22 “Buy,” 4 “Hold” and 1 “Sell” rating, for an overall “Moderate Buy” consensus on MarketBeat. [26]
- QuiverQuant’s tally shows a cluster of Overweight/Outperform calls:
- Wells Fargo: Overweight, target $840
- RBC Capital: Outperform, target $850
- BMO Capital: Outperform, target $810
- Evercore ISI: Outperform, target $875
- JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, KeyBanc: Overweight with targets in the $750–$880 range. [27]
In other words, Street sentiment is constructive but not euphoric. Many analysts see upside, but the target range and occasional downgrade (e.g., Wells Fargo trimming its target from $880 to $840) show that valuation and Mailchimp/Credit Karma execution are genuine concerns. [28]
6. Short‑Term Technical Picture and Algorithmic Forecasts
If you look at purely technical and quantitative models, the signal is mixed.
CoinCodex’s stock‑forecast page (updated late on December 7) shows: [29]
- Short‑term (next 5 days):
- Forecast for December 8–12, 2025 is essentially flat, with a projected range centered around $673–$678 and a 0.61% expected gain by Friday.
- The model notes that Intuit had 16 “green” days out of the last 30 and classifies current sentiment as “bullish” with 21 bullish vs. 5 bearish indicators.
- Longer‑term (1 year and 2030):
- The same model is surprisingly pessimistic, projecting a 1‑year price around $391 (about −42% from today) and an algorithmic 2030 target under $400, far below current levels.
These algorithmic forecasts are entirely model‑driven, based on historical price patterns and technical indicators—not on fundamentals, AI strategy, or new partnerships—so they should be treated as one datapoint among many, not a crystal ball.
7. Valuation: Undervalued AI Compounder or Fully Priced?
This is where opinions diverge most sharply ahead of Monday’s open.
7.1 Simply Wall St: Undervalued vs. Its AI Narrative
A new Simply Wall St piece published on December 7 frames Intuit as “16.3% undervalued” relative to a narrative fair‑value estimate around $805 per share, compared with the last close near $674. [30]
Key points from that analysis:
- Their “most popular narrative” argues that Intuit’s AI‑driven platform—virtual AI teams plus human experts across QuickBooks, TurboTax, Credit Karma and Mailchimp—could expand margins and raise average revenue per customer, justifying a higher multiple. [31]
- On the other hand, they note that Intuit’s P/E around 45.5x is well above a US software sector average near 31.5x, and even above their own “fair” P/E estimate of about 40.7x. The conclusion: great business, rich multiple, some upside if the AI thesis plays out smoothly. [32]
7.2 TIKR: Big Upside by 2030 in a Base‑Case Scenario
A recent TIKR valuation piece on “AI compounders” highlights Intuit as one of five long‑term AI winners. In its mid‑case model, Intuit could be worth about $1,241 per share by mid‑2030, implying roughly 89% total return (about 13.8% annualized) from a starting point in the mid‑$650s. [33]
That model assumes:
- Continued double‑digit growth in small‑business adoption of digital bookkeeping and tax tools,
- Increasing monetization via AI‑enhanced features, and
- Operating leverage from a mostly fixed‑cost software platform. [34]
Taken together, these models suggest Intuit may be reasonably priced to slightly undervalued if its AI plans and growth trajectory stay on track—but there isn’t much room for major execution missteps.
8. The Fundamental Bull Case Going Into 2026
Stepping back from day‑to‑day headlines, the long‑term bullish argument for Intuit before Monday’s open looks like this:
- Data Moat & Recurring Revenue
Intuit sits on decades of structured financial data across QuickBooks, TurboTax, Credit Karma and Mailchimp, supporting subscription‑heavy, recurring revenue with high gross margins above 80%. [35] - AI as a Revenue and Margin Driver
AI agents that automatically handle bookkeeping, payments, CRM and marketing could:- reduce customer churn,
- justify higher‑priced tiers, and
- lower Intuit’s marginal support costs, especially when paired with human experts. [36]
- Disciplined Capital Allocation
Intuit’s long‑term financial principles—articulated in its 2025 proxy—are to grow organic revenue double digits, have operating income grow faster than revenue, and return excess cash via dividends and buybacks while maintaining a strong balance sheet. [37] - Proven Execution Through Cycles
Over the last three years, shareholders have seen a total return of roughly 70%+ even after the recent pullback, indicating the business has compounded through multiple macro regimes. [38]
For investors with multi‑year horizons, Monday’s open is less about a single day’s price action and more about whether you believe Intuit can turn AI hype into durable cash flows.
9. Key Risks to Keep in Mind Before Monday
No pre‑market checklist is complete without the downside:
- Valuation Risk: At ~45x earnings, Intuit is priced for continued double‑digit growth. Any slowdown in small‑business formation, tax volumes, or AI monetization could compress the multiple. [39]
- Mailchimp and Credit Karma Volatility: Intuit has flagged sluggish performance at Mailchimp and cyclical risk at Credit Karma in the past; weakness in either could weigh on consolidated growth and sentiment. [40]
- Regulatory and Data‑Privacy Scrutiny: AI agents and deep data integration with OpenAI and ChatGPT will inevitably invite regulatory and privacy oversight, especially around financial data. [41]
- Insider Selling Optics: While Cook’s sales were plan‑driven, nearly $100 million of insider stock sales in a short window could make short‑term traders cautious if the stock shows any weakness. [42]
- Macro and Rate Sensitivity: Intuit is sensitive to small‑business activity and consumer credit, which in turn are tied to interest‑rate expectations and economic growth. A sharp macro disappointment could overwhelm company‑specific positives. [43]
10. What to Watch in Intuit Stock on December 8, 2025
Going into Monday’s U.S. session, here’s a practical checklist for INTU watchers:
- Pre‑market and early‑session reaction to the CalPERS news
Large pension funds increasing exposure often support the “quality compounder” narrative. Watch whether volume or price action suggests other institutions are following suit. [44] - Sentiment around insider selling vs. AI upside
Headlines about Cook’s sales could pressure the stock short‑term, especially if broader markets wobble. Conversely, bulls may see this as routine profit‑taking in a long‑held position. [45] - Follow‑through on AI and OpenAI headlines
Any additional commentary from conferences or sell‑side notes about the OpenAI deal, AI agents adoption, or early monetization metrics could move the stock more than macro headlines. [46] - Macro backdrop and rate expectations
With markets increasingly sensitive to labor data and Fed expectations, broad risk‑on/risk‑off sentiment could amplify moves in richly valued software names like Intuit. [47] - Technical levels around the mid‑$600s
CoinCodex and other technical models see the stock in a tight trading band around the current price this week. A decisive break above recent highs or below the 50‑day average near the mid‑$650s could attract additional algorithmic trading interest. [48]
Final Word (and a Quick Disclaimer)
Intuit enters Monday’s session as a profitable, AI‑leveraged fintech platform with strong institutional sponsorship, a growing dividend, and an ambitious product roadmap—yet priced in a way that leaves little room for major missteps.
This article is for information and news purposes only and is not investment advice. Intuit stock can be volatile, and whether it fits your portfolio depends on your own risk tolerance, time horizon, and financial situation. Consider speaking with a qualified financial professional before making any trading or investment decisions.
References
1. www.marketbeat.com, 2. investors.intuit.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.marketbeat.com, 5. www.marketbeat.com, 6. www.marketbeat.com, 7. www.marketbeat.com, 8. simplywall.st, 9. www.marketbeat.com, 10. www.marketbeat.com, 11. www.marketbeat.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. www.investing.com, 14. investors.intuit.com, 15. www.investopedia.com, 16. www.investopedia.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.stocktitan.net, 22. www.stocktitan.net, 23. www.stocktitan.net, 24. www.marketbeat.com, 25. stocksguide.com, 26. www.marketbeat.com, 27. www.quiverquant.com, 28. www.marketbeat.com, 29. coincodex.com, 30. simplywall.st, 31. simplywall.st, 32. simplywall.st, 33. www.tikr.com, 34. www.tikr.com, 35. www.investing.com, 36. www.stocktitan.net, 37. www.sec.gov, 38. simplywall.st, 39. www.marketbeat.com, 40. www.reuters.com, 41. www.reuters.com, 42. www.investing.com, 43. fortune.com, 44. www.marketbeat.com, 45. www.investing.com, 46. www.reuters.com, 47. fortune.com, 48. coincodex.com
