Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ: INTU) heads into Monday’s U.S. market open with investors focused on a simple question: can the TurboTax and QuickBooks owner keep justifying a premium valuation as it leans harder into “agentic” AI—while navigating tax-season catalysts, Credit Karma cyclicality, and lingering Mailchimp concerns?
As of the latest available quote ahead of Monday’s session, INTU was around $670.93, down about 0.74% from the prior close.
Below is what matters most before the bell on December 15, 2025: the price setup, the biggest recent headlines, the company’s latest guidance, what analysts are projecting, and the key risks that can move the stock next.
INTU stock price snapshot heading into Monday (Dec. 15, 2025)
Where the stock stands
- Last price / latest quote: about $670.93
- 52-week range: roughly $532.65 to $813.70 (depending on data provider) [1]
- Distance from 52-week high: the stock is still well below the July peak (around the high-$800s), keeping the debate alive over whether AI optimism got ahead of fundamentals earlier this year. [2]
Size and shareholder returns
- Market cap: about $186–187B based on late-week pricing. [3]
- Dividend: Intuit approved a $1.20 quarterly dividend, with a record date of Jan. 9, 2026 and payment date of Jan. 16, 2026. [4]
Why this matters for Monday: with no weekend earnings release or major scheduled company event at the open, headline risk (AI, policy/tax changes, analyst notes) and broader market tone are likely to dominate early trading.
The biggest current headlines around Intuit (INTU) right now
1) Intuit’s OpenAI deal puts “AI agents” at the center of the thesis
One of the most market-moving recent catalysts is Intuit’s multi-year partnership with OpenAI, reported as worth more than $100 million, aimed at using OpenAI models to power Intuit’s AI agents across products like TurboTax, QuickBooks, and Credit Karma. [5]
Reuters also reported that Intuit’s apps would be accessible through ChatGPT, with the company emphasizing privacy/security principles—and describing the ChatGPT integration as involving no revenue share. [6]
Why investors care:
- Bulls see a path to higher ARPU, better retention, and new distribution via ChatGPT.
- Skeptics watch for higher costs, unclear monetization timing, and increased scrutiny of data handling (even with assurances).
2) Guidance: revenue outlook strong—but EPS guide created debate
In its most recent quarterly update, Intuit reiterated full-year fiscal 2026 guidance and also issued Q2 expectations. [7]
Reuters highlighted a nuance the market keeps revisiting: Q2 revenue growth guidance looked better than consensus, but adjusted EPS guidance came in below what analysts were expecting at the time. [8]
Why it matters for Monday: the stock can be sensitive to any incremental commentary (conferences, interviews, analyst notes) that clarifies whether margin pressure is temporary investment (AI rollout, go-to-market) or something more structural.
3) Mailchimp remains a watch item after earlier weakness
Intuit’s marketing platform Mailchimp has been flagged as a near-term drag in prior reporting. Reuters previously noted that Mailchimp struggled with user retention and expansion, with Intuit’s CFO describing it as a “near-term drag” while pointing to initiatives intended to improve performance. [9]
Why this still matters: even if QuickBooks and Credit Karma are executing, Mailchimp can sway growth mix and investor confidence in Intuit’s longer-term platform story.
4) Corporate governance changes: board appointments and leadership transition
Intuit announced that ServiceNow CEO Bill McDermott and Nasdaq CEO Adena Friedman will join its board effective Aug. 1, 2026. [10]
The company also stated that CEO Sasan Goodarzi is set to become Board Chair on Jan. 22, 2026, aligned with the annual stockholder meeting timeline. [11]
5) The tax-policy backdrop is shifting—potentially affecting consumer filing dynamics
Two major policy/tax-season developments are relevant to Intuit’s consumer narrative:
- The IRS has published materials about the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (Public Law 119-21), signed July 4, 2025, outlining impacts on taxes, credits, and deductions. [12]
- Separately, the IRS Direct File program is not expected to be available for the 2026 filing season, according to reporting that cites communications to participating states. [13]
Why this matters to INTU investors:
- More tax-code complexity can increase demand for assisted/self-serve software (a classic TurboTax tailwind).
- A reduced government-run filing option can shift competitive dynamics—but it also brings reputational/political attention to the private tax-prep industry.
Intuit earnings recap: the numbers investors keep coming back to
Intuit’s latest quarterly report (fiscal Q1 2026, ended Oct. 31, 2025) painted a picture of solid growth, with management reiterating confidence in double-digit revenue growth and margin expansion. [14]
Key segment performance highlights
- Global Business Solutions revenue:$3.0B, up 18% [15]
- QuickBooks Online Accounting revenue: up 25% (drivers cited include higher effective prices, customer growth, and mix) [16]
- Consumer revenue:$894M, up 21% [17]
Capital allocation
- Intuit reported ~$3.7B in cash/investments and ~$6.1B in debt (as of Oct. 31, 2025). [20]
- It repurchased $851M of stock in the quarter, with $4.4B remaining on authorization. [21]
- It approved the $1.20 dividend (payable Jan. 16, 2026). [22]
INTU guidance and what it implies for the stock going into mid-December
Fiscal 2026 full-year guidance (reiterated)
Intuit guided to:
- Revenue:$20.997B to $21.186B (about 12–13% growth) [23]
- GAAP EPS:$15.49 to $15.69 [24]
- Non-GAAP EPS:$22.98 to $23.18 [25]
Q2 fiscal 2026 (ends Jan. 31) outlook
Reuters’ takeaway was that revenue growth guidance looked stronger than consensus, while the adjusted EPS outlook was softer than expected. [28]
A quick valuation reality check (using company guidance)
With INTU around $670.93, the stock trades at approximately:
- ~43x forward GAAP EPS (based on $15.49–$15.69)
- ~29x forward non-GAAP EPS (based on $22.98–$23.18)
Those multiples are derived from the latest quote and Intuit’s own guidance. [29]
What that means: Intuit doesn’t need perfect execution, but it does need credible execution—especially on AI-driven monetization and maintaining growth in QuickBooks/Credit Karma while stabilizing Mailchimp.
Wall Street forecasts: analyst price targets and sentiment around INTU
While targets vary by firm and methodology, compiled analyst snapshots in recent coverage generally show upside targets above current trading levels:
- MarketBeat’s compilation shows an average price target around $798 (with a range that can run from the low-$500s to around $900 depending on the analyst set). [30]
- MarketWatch’s displayed analyst target set (in search snippet form) lists average around $820.77, median $823, and a high near $971. [31]
- Recent coverage also reflects multiple firms reiterating positive stances after the Q1 print (for example, notes referencing targets in the $800s). [32]
How to interpret this for Monday:
- If INTU opens weak, bulls will point to target spreads and “AI optionality.”
- If INTU opens strong, bears will point to premium multiples and ask what incremental news justifies re-rating higher from here.
What to watch next: near-term catalysts after Dec. 15
1) Tax season setup (and why 2026 could be unusually headline-heavy)
The IRS has already begun “Get Ready” messaging for the 2026 tax season, encouraging preparation ahead of filing. [33]
Historically, IRS acceptance of returns often begins in late January (for example, the 2025 season started Jan. 27). [34]
Now layer in:
- the IRS’s continuing rollout of guidance tied to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act [35]
- and the widely reported shutdown of Direct File for the 2026 season [36]
For Intuit, this combination can be a demand catalyst (complexity) and a competitive narrative shift (Direct File).
2) Executive visibility: conferences and investor communications
Intuit has remained active on the investor-conference circuit in early December (including a CFO appearance and other presentations listed on its IR calendar). [37]
Even when companies don’t change formal guidance at these events, tone changes—especially around AI monetization, Credit Karma demand, or Mailchimp stabilization—can move the stock.
3) Governance timeline into January
The January 22, 2026 annual meeting and leadership/board transition is a defined date on the calendar, and investors may watch for any preview of priorities heading into that event. [38]
Key risks that could move INTU stock (and why they matter now)
AI execution and trust
Intuit is positioning AI agents as productivity and decision-making accelerators across its ecosystem, now strengthened with the OpenAI partnership. [39]
But the market will keep scoring INTU on:
- trust and data stewardship,
- product reliability, and
- the pace at which AI features translate into pricing power and retention rather than just higher costs.
Credit Karma sensitivity to lending cycles
Credit Karma’s growth has been a standout in the latest quarter. [40]
Still, that segment can be sensitive to credit availability, consumer demand, and partner appetite in categories like personal loans and credit cards.
Mailchimp turnaround risk
Reuters’ earlier reporting highlighted Mailchimp retention/expansion challenges, making it a recurring “prove it” item in the platform narrative. [41]
Regulatory/reputation overhang in tax prep
Policy changes can cut both ways. While the end of Direct File for 2026 may be seen as favorable to private providers, it also raises the temperature of the public debate around how Americans file taxes. [42]
Bottom line: the INTU checklist for Monday’s open
If you’re watching Intuit (INTU) into the Dec. 15, 2025 open, the most practical framework is:
- Scan for fresh AI headlines tied to Intuit/OpenAI—especially anything about product rollout timing, distribution inside ChatGPT, or monetization. [43]
- Re-anchor on guidance, because that’s the reference point for valuation: FY26 revenue ~$21B and non-GAAP EPS ~$23. [44]
- Watch the policy/tax-season backdrop, especially IRS updates and narratives around filing options for 2026. [45]
- Keep an eye on analyst target chatter, which remains broadly constructive in compiled snapshots (often clustering in the $800s). [46]
References
1. www.morningstar.com, 2. www.marketwatch.com, 3. finance.yahoo.com, 4. investors.intuit.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. investors.intuit.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. investors.intuit.com, 11. investors.intuit.com, 12. www.irs.gov, 13. apnews.com, 14. investors.intuit.com, 15. investors.intuit.com, 16. investors.intuit.com, 17. investors.intuit.com, 18. investors.intuit.com, 19. investors.intuit.com, 20. investors.intuit.com, 21. investors.intuit.com, 22. investors.intuit.com, 23. investors.intuit.com, 24. investors.intuit.com, 25. investors.intuit.com, 26. investors.intuit.com, 27. investors.intuit.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. investors.intuit.com, 30. www.marketbeat.com, 31. www.marketwatch.com, 32. ca.finance.yahoo.com, 33. www.irs.gov, 34. apnews.com, 35. www.irs.gov, 36. apnews.com, 37. investors.intuit.com, 38. investors.intuit.com, 39. www.reuters.com, 40. investors.intuit.com, 41. www.reuters.com, 42. apnews.com, 43. www.reuters.com, 44. investors.intuit.com, 45. www.irs.gov, 46. www.marketbeat.com
