Intuitive Machines (LUNR) Stock on December 4, 2025: Price Action, NASA Catalysts and 2026 Forecasts

As of December 4, 2025, Intuitive Machines, Inc. (NASDAQ: LUNR) is back in the spotlight. The space-infrastructure company behind the Nova‑C lunar lander and NASA’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) missions is trading around $11.49 per share, up roughly 12–13% on the day, with intraday volume over 5.4 million shares – well above normal levels. ^[1]

The move extends a rebound from late November, when LUNR was changing hands around $9.50, according to recent coverage of the stock’s bull case. ^[2] Even after the bounce, LUNR remains a deeply volatile name in 2025, still described in recent analyst commentary as a “binary” space play whose fate hinges on NASA contracts and upcoming lunar missions. ^[3]

Where LUNR Stock Stands on 4 December 2025

Market data across several platforms show Intuitive Machines trading in the low‑$11 range on Thursday, December 4, with intraday highs just above $11.50 and lows near $10.17. ^[4]

Technical services that track short-term setups have shifted firmly into bullish mode:

StockInvest.us upgraded LUNR to a short‑term “Buy candidate” on December 3 after the stock climbed from $9.42 to $10.20, noting a 10.74% intraday range and a 10‑day gain of more than 10%. The service projects a 90% probability that LUNR will trade between $8.06 and $13.88 over the next three months and flags support around $10.13 and resistance near $11.35. ^[5]
StockTradersDaily’s rules‑based model, updated for December 4, highlights “positive near‑term sentiment” but weaker longer‑term alignment, with an extreme 221:1 modeled risk‑reward profile based on an entry zone near $8.52 and a target at $12.94, alongside a mid‑channel oscillation pattern. ^[6]

In short: on December 4, LUNR looks like exactly what many traders want and long‑term investors fear—a high‑beta space stock in the middle of a sharp upswing, still moving inside a very wide trading range.

Financial Snapshot: Q3 2025 Results and Full‑Year Outlook

Q3 2025: Heavy Cash Cushion, Ongoing Losses

Intuitive Machines reported third‑quarter 2025 results in mid‑November. Key figures from its Form 10‑Q and earnings summaries: ^[7]

Revenue: $52.4 million (down from $58.5 million in Q3 2024)
Operating loss: $15.4 million
Net loss attributable to the company: about $6.8 million, with total net loss around $10 million depending on the measure used
Adjusted EBITDA: approximately ‑$13.2 million, an improvement of $12.2 million versus Q2
Cash and cash equivalents: about $622 million, up dramatically from roughly $208 million at year‑end 2024

The sharp increase in cash reflects both improved operating liquidity and the impact of the company’s August 2025 convertible notes offering (discussed below). ^[8]

Q2 2025: Growth, a Miss vs Expectations, and a Strengthened Balance Sheet

In Q2 2025, Intuitive Machines posted $50.3 million in revenue, representing roughly 21% year‑over‑year growth, but falling short of consensus expectations near $69 million. Earnings per share came in at ‑$0.11, missing a consensus of ‑$0.06. ^[9]

At the same time, the company:

Ended Q2 debt‑free, with $345 million in cash
Closed the acquisition of KinetX’s space navigation business
Expanded its footprint by about 140,000 square feet
Won a $10 million Texas Space Commission award for its Earth Reentry program and signed a partnership with Space Forge for space‑based semiconductor manufacturing ^[10]

Management reaffirmed a full‑year 2025 revenue outlook of $250–300 million earlier in the year, while guiding to positive run‑rate adjusted EBITDA by the end of 2025 and positive adjusted EBITDA in 2026. ^[11]

Longer‑Term Trend: Rapid Growth from a Small Base

Analyst forecast aggregators now expect: ^[12]

2025 revenue: about $223 million, slightly below earlier estimates
2026 revenue: jumping to roughly $589 million
2025 EPS: around ‑$0.38
2026 EPS: turning positive near $0.06

That implies a company still losing money today but expected—by the Street—to scale revenues more than 2.5x in 2026 and edge into profitability if it executes on its contract backlog.

Strategic Moves: Lanteris Deal, Convertible Notes and New Contracts

$800 Million Lanteris Space Systems Acquisition

One of the biggest strategic headlines of 2025 is Intuitive Machines’ agreement to acquire Lanteris Space Systems from Advent International for $800 million, split between $450 million in cash and $350 million in Class A shares. The deal is expected to close in Q1 2026. ^[13]

Company materials and related commentary suggest the combined entity would: ^[14]

Generate over $850 million in annual revenue on a pro forma basis
Be adjusted‑EBITDA positive
Carry a combined backlog of roughly $920 million

Cantor Fitzgerald and others argue that Lanteris could transform Intuitive Machines into a broader “space prime,” adding satellite manufacturing and defense‑oriented capabilities to its lunar delivery and communications services. ^[15]

August 2025: Convertible Senior Notes Offering

To support growth and M&A, Intuitive Machines announced a $250 million private offering of convertible senior notes due 2030 in August 2025, with an option for underwriters to purchase an additional $37.5 million. The notes are senior unsecured obligations, convertible into cash, stock, or a mix of both, with proceeds earmarked for capped call transactions, operations, R&D and potential acquisitions. ^[16]

The transaction adds leverage but also significantly extends the company’s capital runway at a time when it is scaling missions and pursuing large NASA and Department of Defense (DoD) programs.

Contract Wins: AFRL and Orbital Transport

Beyond lunar landers, Intuitive Machines has continued to add to its contract portfolio in late 2025: ^[17]

An $8.2 million contract extension from the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) to advance in‑space nuclear power technology.
A $9.8 million orbital transfer vehicle (OTV) contract highlighted on the company’s investor news page.
Prior awards include a large Near Space Network Services (NSNS) contract in 2024, under which Intuitive Machines will deploy lunar data relay satellites to provide pay‑per‑minute communications services around the Moon. ^[18]

Taken together, the Lanteris deal, convertible notes, and incremental contracts suggest a company leaning aggressively into scale, even as it works through the technical and financial risks of early‑stage lunar operations.

NASA Missions and the Lunar Economy Story

Intuitive Machines’ entire equity story is built around the idea that lunar access and communications will become infrastructure, not one‑off science projects.

IM‑1 and IM‑2: Success‑Through‑Failure

IM‑1 (Odysseus), launched in February 2024, achieved the first U.S. lunar landing since Apollo, but the lander tipped over on touchdown, limiting operations to several days and constraining data return. ^[19]
IM‑2 (Athena), launched February 27, 2025, again soft‑landed but came to rest on its side at Mons Mouton after an altimeter failure, causing the spacecraft to skid and roll before settling in a crater. Power generation was compromised by dust‑coated solar panels, and the mission ended roughly 13 hours after landing. ^[20]

Despite these very public mishaps, NASA and the company have framed IM‑1 and IM‑2 as stepping‑stone demonstrations of navigation, propulsion and payload delivery, not endpoints.

IM‑3 and Beyond: A Near‑Term Catalyst

The IM‑3 mission, targeting the Reiner Gamma region, is slated for early 2026 and is expected to carry multiple NASA payloads and data‑relay infrastructure tied to the NSNS contract. ^[21]

A recent bull thesis highlighted IM‑3 as a more “forgiving” mission profile, with: ^[22]

A technically easier landing site
Redundant altimeters designed to avoid the IM‑2 failure mode
The potential to validate Intuitive Machines’ lander design and business model if the mission goes smoothly

The same thesis also points to NASA’s Lunar Terrain Vehicle (LTV) program as a key binary catalyst. Intuitive Machines is performing a $30 million LTV feasibility contract, with full‑scale services contracts estimated at over $1 billion—and widely discussed as a potential multi‑billion‑dollar backlog addition if the company wins. ^[23]

What Wall Street Is Saying: LUNR Stock Forecasts and Price Targets

Consensus Rating: Buy, but Highly Polarized

Across major forecast platforms, Intuitive Machines currently carries a consensus “Buy” rating: ^[24]

7–10 analysts cover the stock, depending on the data provider.
Aggregated sources report an average 12‑month price target in the mid‑teens, typically between $14.29 and $15.67 per share. ^[25]

With LUNR trading around $11.49, those averages imply roughly 25–35% potential upside over the next year if forecasts prove accurate.

However, the spread between individual analysts is wide:

High targets cluster around $16–18, implying ~35–57% upside from current levels. ^[26]
Low targets sit near $9–9.50, implying mid‑teens downside from today’s price. ^[27]

Bank of America’s Ronald Epstein, for example, maintains a “Sell” rating with a $9.50 target, while Canaccord Genuity and Stifel have “Strong Buy” ratings with targets between $16 and $18. ^[28]

Cantor Fitzgerald: 70% Upside Case

Cantor Fitzgerald has emerged as one of the most vocal bulls on LUNR in late 2025:

The firm reiterated its Overweight rating and $16 price target in November, calling the company well‑positioned across lunar access, communications, orbital services and space infrastructure. ^[29]
Cantor highlights the $800 million Lanteris acquisition, potential LTV contract award, and IM‑3 mission as the most important near‑term catalysts. ^[30]
According to MarketWatch summaries, the $16 target was framed as roughly 70% upside from prices near $9.42 when the note was issued. ^[31]

Fundamental Forecasts: Rapid Scale in 2026

StockAnalysis and similar aggregators show Street models that envision: ^[32]

2025 revenue around $223 million, more or less flat versus earlier projections
2026 revenue near $589 million, up more than 160% year‑over‑year
EPS moving from ‑$0.38 in 2025 to +$0.06 in 2026, implying the first year of positive earnings

These forecasts assume a successful ramp in lunar missions, data services and Lanteris contribution—none of which is guaranteed.

Short‑Term Technical Picture: Volatility, Support and Resistance

On the pure price‑action side, LUNR remains a trader’s playground:

StockInvest.us describes the stock as moving in a “very wide and horizontal trend”, with a projected 3‑month range of $8.06–$13.88 and typical daily volatility above 5%. A pivot‑bottom buy signal from late November and a bullish short‑term moving average crossover underpin its current “Buy candidate” label. ^[33]
StockTradersDaily’s AI‑driven analysis shows: ^[34]
- Strong near‑term (1–5 day) bullish signals
- Neutral mid‑term (5–20 day) signals
- Weak long‑term (20+ day) alignment
- A long setup with entry near $8.52, target $12.94, and stop slightly below, plus breakout and hedging strategies keyed to the same resistance level

The message from quants and chartists is consistent: LUNR is liquid enough for active trading, but price swings of 8–10% in a single session are not unusual. For investors, that translates directly into elevated risk.

Institutional and Insider Activity

Recent filings and news flow show meaningful interest from both insiders and institutional investors: ^[35]

ARK Investment Management boosted its LUNR position by 56.1%, now holding roughly 0.65% of the company (~$12.6 million position at the time of the filing).
Director Michael Blitzer bought 141,080 shares on November 12 at an average of $9.27, followed by another 100,000 shares on November 13 at $8.83, lifting his stake by about 8.35% to 1,831,248 shares.
MarketBeat estimates institutional ownership at over 72%, with notable stakes from firms such as Vanguard, Voya, Geode, UBS and First Trust. ^[36]

Heavy institutional ownership and recent insider buys are not guarantees, but they do signal that professional investors are willing to underwrite the company’s capital‑intensive strategy at current price levels.

The Bull Case: Cash, Contracts and a Predictable “Launch Cycle”

A widely discussed bull thesis, summarized from a value‑investing subreddit and picked up by Insider Monkey, frames LUNR as a “high‑potential, binary space play” with a somewhat predictable pattern: ^[37]

Launch announced → stock spikes
Mission flies → any technical issue triggers a crash in the share price
Post‑mission lull → price drifts lower until the next launch window and contract cycle

In that view, the stock today is in the “post‑mission lull” after IM‑2, with the next catalysts being:

IM‑3 launch window confirmation for early 2026
The NASA LTV contract decision, potentially worth over $1 billion in backlog
Continued CLPS task orders and NSNS‑related data services

The thesis leans heavily on Intuitive Machines’ large cash position (now over $600 million), relatively low enterprise value once that cash is netted out, and the potential for a re‑rating if IM‑3 and major NASA awards go right. ^[38]

Key Risks: Mission Execution, Contract Concentration and Dilution

For all the enthusiasm, several risks stand out clearly in the December 4, 2025 landscape:

Mission risk: Both IM‑1 and IM‑2 technically landed, but each ended with the lander on its side and curtailed operations due to altimeter issues and dust‑coated solar panels. Execution on IM‑3 is far from guaranteed, and another high‑profile failure could damage the narrative around the company’s landers. ^[39]
Customer concentration: Intuitive Machines is heavily dependent on NASA and U.S. government budgets, and many of its most important opportunities—CLPS, NSNS, LTV—are winner‑take‑most competitions. A lost bid or delayed award can dramatically alter revenue trajectories. ^[40]
Financing and dilution: The August 2025 convertible notes and the planned $800 million Lanteris acquisition are powerful growth tools, but they also introduce leverage and potential equity dilution if the notes convert and the Lanteris integration proves more expensive than expected. ^[41]
Execution complexity: Integrating Lanteris, digesting KinetX, ramping multiple lunar missions and deploying a lunar communications constellation is a lot for any company—let alone one still generating operating losses and navigating the post‑SPAC environment. ^[42]
Extreme volatility: With daily moves often near 10% and a wide modeled trading band, LUNR can quickly overshoot in either direction on news, rumors or changes in risk appetite. ^[43]

Bottom Line: A High‑Conviction Lunar Bet, Not a Widely Diversified Space ETF

On December 4, 2025, Intuitive Machines sits at the intersection of three powerful forces:

A strong balance sheet bolstered by cash and convertible financing
Transformative strategic moves, especially the pending Lanteris acquisition
Binary technical and contract catalysts, led by IM‑3 and the Lunar Terrain Vehicle competition

Wall Street’s models, on average, point to double‑digit percentage upside from today’s price, but they also show wide disagreement—ranging from Sell with sub‑$10 targets to Strong Buy calls in the high‑teens. ^[44]

For traders, LUNR is likely to remain a high‑octane instrument, swinging with every NASA update, contract headline and incremental piece of news about its lander performance. For long‑term investors, it is a speculative bet on the commercialization of the Moon, not a low‑risk aerospace holding.