Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Stock on December 2, 2025: Da Vinci 5 Momentum, Insider Sale and 2026 Wall Street Forecasts

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Stock on December 2, 2025: Da Vinci 5 Momentum, Insider Sale and 2026 Wall Street Forecasts

All figures in USD. Data current as of the close on December 1, 2025 and latest analyst/market reports available on December 2, 2025.

1. Where Intuitive Surgical Stock Stands Today

Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (NASDAQ: ISRG), the maker of the da Vinci and Ion robotic systems, is trading near the upper end of its 52‑week range after a powerful post‑earnings run in Q4 2025.

On December 1, 2025, ISRG closed at about $567.37, down 1.07% on the day but still up 7.34% over the past month, outpacing the S&P 500 (‑0.5%) and roughly in line with the broader medical sector. ^[1]
A MarketBeat snapshot on December 2 shows shares changing hands around $568–569, with a market cap near $204 billion, 1‑year low of $425, 1‑year high of $616, and a trailing P/E around 75. ^[2]
Simply Wall St estimates the stock has gained 8.3% year‑to‑date and 4.7% over the last 12 months, reflecting a strong but not runaway 1‑year performance following the 2025 rally. ^[3]

Long‑term shareholders have done extremely well: one recent analysis calculated that $1,000 invested a decade ago would be worth roughly $10,000 today, far ahead of the S&P 500’s ~219% total return over the same period. TS2 Tech

Institutional investors dominate the register. Late‑November filings and market data suggest institutional ownership above 80% of the float, with large managers such as Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo and Schroders modestly adding to their stakes in recent quarters. TS2 Tech+1

2. Q3 2025 Earnings: A Classic “Double Beat”

The stock’s current strength is anchored in a standout Q3 2025 earnings report released on October 21.

Headline numbers

According to detailed earnings coverage and company disclosures:

Revenue: $2.51 billion, up 23% year over year, beating consensus of $2.41 billion. ^[4]
Non‑GAAP EPS: $2.40, up 30% YoY, versus expectations of $1.99. GAAP EPS came in around $1.95, up ~25%. ^[5]
Non‑GAAP operating income: about $976 million, +29% YoY, reflecting strong operating leverage. ^[6]
Global procedure growth: ~20% YoY, a key driver of recurring revenue and instrument demand. ^[7]

Segment detail underlines the strength of Intuitive’s annuity‑like model:

Instruments & accessories: ~$1.52 billion (+20% YoY) – roughly 60% of total revenue. ^[8]
Systems (robot sales): ~$590 million (+33% YoY), driven by 427 da Vinci placements, of which 240 were da Vinci 5 systems. ^[9]
Services: ~$396 million (+20% YoY), supported by an installed base that grew 13% to 10,763 da Vinci systems worldwide. ^[10]

A separate Nasdaq analysis highlights that “systems” revenue now accounts for about 25% of the top line, with services at ~15% and instruments & accessories at ~60%—illustrating how each new robot seeds years of higher‑margin recurring revenue. ^[11]

Da Vinci 5 and efficiency gains

The quarter was the first full period of global commercialization for da Vinci 5, Intuitive’s fifth‑generation robotic platform:

Early data point to roughly 20% efficiency gains per procedure, helping hospitals increase throughput and potentially reduce costs. ^[12]
Da Vinci 5 represented more than half of new system placements in Q3, signaling rapid adoption within the installed base. ^[13]

Ion, Intuitive’s lung‑biopsy platform, also stood out, with Ion procedures growing more than 50% and the Ion installed base approaching 1,000 systems, further diversifying the company beyond multi‑port surgery. TS2 Tech

Guidance and margins

Management updated its FY 2025 outlook while absorbing tariff and cost headwinds:

Procedure growth guidance: raised slightly to 17–17.5%.
Non‑GAAP gross margin: guided to 67–67.5%, roughly flat with prior levels after incorporating about 70 basis points of tariff drag. ^[14]

Despite the tariff headwinds, Simply Wall St notes that recurring revenue from servicing and consumables continues to underpin “operational resilience,” even as high‑margin instrument sales scale with the installed base. ^[15]

The upshot: Q3 delivered exactly what growth investors want from an expensive stock—faster revenue, faster earnings and stronger utilization.

3. Fresh Catalyst: Executive Chair’s $13 Million Stock Sale

On December 1, 2025, Intuitive’s longtime leader and current executive chair Gary Guthart disclosed a significant insider transaction:

Guthart sold 22,806 shares at an average price of $570.89, for proceeds of about $13.0 million. ^[16]
After the sale, he directly holds 2,694 shares, an 89% reduction in his reported stake. ^[17]
On the same day, he exercised options for 25,500 shares at $139.52, a typical step in executive compensation management. ^[18]

Importantly, filings describe the trades as executed under a Rule 10b5‑1 trading plan that runs through April 2026—meaning the sales were scheduled in advance and not necessarily a reaction to any specific piece of news. ^[19]

From a fundamental standpoint:

Investing.com data pegs Intuitive’s trailing P/E around 75 and trailing 12‑month revenue growth above 22%, consistent with a high‑growth, premium multiple story. ^[20]
MarketBeat emphasizes that, despite the sale, analysts still see the stock as a long‑term compounder with a “Moderate Buy” consensus. ^[21]

Insider selling at high valuations will always prompt debate. But in this case, the combination of a pre‑planned 10b5‑1 program and concurrent option exercises suggests portfolio and tax management rather than a sudden loss of confidence.

4. The Valuation Debate: Brilliant Business, Pricey Stock

Valuation is where views on ISRG diverge most sharply.

DCF and PE perspectives: Simply Wall St’s “Overvalued” call

A new December 2, 2025 valuation piece from Simply Wall St highlights just how rich the stock looks on several metrics: ^[22]

Their discounted cash‑flow model estimates intrinsic value around $328.86 per share. With the stock trading near the high‑$560s, that implies roughly a 72.5% premium to fair value. ^[23]
ISRG currently trades on a P/E of ~73x, versus a peer average near 36x and a broader medical equipment industry average around 28.6x. ^[24]

Simply Wall St scores Intuitive 0/6 on its valuation checks, and labels the stock “OVERVALUED” under both its DCF and PE‑based frameworks. ^[25]

Within the same ecosystem, community “Narratives” on ISRG span a very wide range:

Bull cases cluster around fair value estimates close to $593, a few percent above the current price.
Bear cases see fair value nearer $325–$330, implying little or no margin of safety at today’s levels. ^[26]

Zacks: Strong fundamentals, premium multiples

Zacks Equity Research, in a December 1 note, takes almost the opposite view on the investment quality, even while acknowledging the premium multiples: ^[27]

Rating:Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).
Forward P/E: ~66.6x, versus ~26x for the Medical Instruments industry.
PEG ratio: ~4.2, compared with ~2.3 for the peer group.

Zacks’ model points to FY 2025 EPS of $8.61 (+17.3% YoY) on revenue of $9.92 billion (+18.7%), with Q4 EPS estimated at $2.25 and revenue at $2.72 billion. ^[28]

In other words: by classical measures, ISRG is expensive, but its growth profile and earnings revisions earn it a top‑tier growth‑stock rating.

Historical context: pricey, but not unprecedented

A separate Nasdaq/Motley Fool analysis notes that Intuitive’s P/E around 72x is far above the S&P 500’s ~29x, but roughly in line with the company’s own five‑year average, suggesting the stock has almost always traded at a steep premium to the market. ^[29]

For value‑driven investors, the Simply Wall St math is a clear red flag. For growth‑oriented investors comfortable with “quality at any price,” the fact that current multiples sit near historical norms softens the concern.

5. Wall Street Forecasts: What Analysts See for 2026

Across major research aggregators, Intuitive Surgical is almost universally rated positively, with modest—but not spectacular—upside from current levels.

Consensus ratings and price targets

MarketBeat:
- Rating: Moderate Buy
- Coverage: 28 analysts
- Breakdown: 2 Strong Buy, 18 Buy, 7 Hold, 1 Sell
- Average 12‑month price target:$607.28, implying about 7% upside from a reference price of $567.72.
- Target range:$440 – $700. ^[30]
TipRanks:
- Rating: Strong Buy
- Coverage: 19 analysts in the last three months
- Average price target:$622.06, roughly 8.5% above a last price of $573.48, with targets spanning $540–$700. ^[31]
Anachart:
- Coverage: 20 analysts
- Average target:$612.18, implying ~7.9% upside versus a recent close of $567.37. ^[32]
Public.com (retail‑oriented aggregator):
- Coverage: 14 analysts
- Consensus rating:Buy
- Average target: about $591.57, essentially flat vs its “current price” input, implying limited short‑term upside from today’s levels. ^[33]

Taken together, these snapshots paint a consistent picture:

Analysts largely agree Intuitive Surgical is a high‑quality growth franchise deserving a Buy/Strong Buy rating, but most models only justify mid‑single‑digit to high‑single‑digit upside over 12 months.

In other words, the Street’s bull case is more about multi‑year compounding than a near‑term “home‑run” from today’s price.

6. Robotic Surgery Tailwinds: Why the Long‑Term Story Still Resonates

The enthusiasm around ISRG isn’t just about last quarter’s numbers. It rests on a robust, data‑backed view that robotic surgery and AI‑enhanced operating rooms are in the early stages of a long adoption curve.

Expanding market for surgical robotics

Multiple industry studies point to strong, durable growth in the broader surgical robotics and AI‑surgery markets:

Life Science Intelligence estimates that robotic surgical systems were a ~$9 billion market in 2024, projected to reach $15 billion by 2029, with Intuitive currently holding a “dominant share” of that market. ^[34]
InsightAce Analytics pegs the AI‑first surgical robotics market at $9.5 billion in 2024, expected to reach $42.25 billion by 2034, a 16.3% CAGR—and lists Intuitive among the key players alongside Medtronic, Stryker, J&J and others. ^[35]

These projections indicate not only more robots in operating rooms, but also software, AI and services layers where Intuitive already has a meaningful first‑mover advantage.

Competitive landscape: still Intuitive’s game to lose

A MedTech Dive review of 2025 trends notes that Intuitive will face intensifying competition from Medtronic’s Hugo platform, J&J’s delayed Ottava robot, and an array of smaller specialists entering niche indications. ^[36]

Yet experts quoted in the same report are blunt about the company’s entrenched lead:

Intuitive’s huge installed base and surgeon familiarity with the da Vinci ecosystem make hospital switching costly and unlikely. ^[37]
One veteran medtech executive forecasts that a decade from now, Intuitive could still control about 70% of the robotic surgery market, with Medtronic and J&J at 10% each and the remaining 10% split by smaller firms. ^[38]

In practical terms, recent headlines reaffirm this moat:

New da Vinci 5 installations at hospitals like St. Francis in Colorado Springs are rolling out across multiple specialties (urology, gynecology, thoracic and general surgery), often as “first in region” deployments within large health systems. TS2 Tech
A supplier update from UFP Technologies highlights that Intuitive is a core multi‑year growth driver in their pipeline, with expanded contracts for robotic‑surgery components expected to add >$10 million in annual revenue for UFP alone by 2026—an indirect sign of ISRG’s growth visibility. TS2 Tech

Technology roadmap: da Vinci 5, AI and telesurgery

TechStock²’s recent coverage of ISRG emphasizes just how big a leap da Vinci 5 is over prior generations: TS2 Tech

The system reportedly offers around 10,000x the computing power of the previous Xi model and 150+ design enhancements, including advanced 3D imaging and Force Feedback for tactile awareness.
Da Vinci 5 secured FDA clearance in 2024, followed by CE mark approval in Europe and additional approvals in Japan during 2025, giving it a broad regulatory footprint. TS2 Tech

The same article and related reports also spotlight Intuitive’s push into telesurgery and remote collaboration:

An Intuitive‑backed remote‑robotics company reportedly raised around $40–41 million to advance telesurgery platforms.
Earlier in 2025, Intuitive demonstrated cross‑continent, 4,000‑mile telesurgery using a dual‑console da Vinci 5 system, allowing surgeons in Europe and the U.S. to share operative control over a network connection. TS2 Tech

All of this bolsters the long‑term narrative that Intuitive is not just selling hardware, but building a software‑driven, data‑rich surgical network.

7. Risks Investors Can’t Ignore

Even fans of the company acknowledge several important risk factors.

1. Valuation and multiple compression

DCF‑based fair‑value estimates in the low‑$300s and P/E ratios more than double peer averages leave little room for disappointment on execution or growth. ^[39]
A slowdown in procedure growth, unexpected margin erosion or a sharp rotation out of high‑multiple growth stocks could hit ISRG harder than the broader market.

2. Tariffs and margin pressure

Q3 guidance explicitly bakes in tariff‑driven gross‑margin drag of roughly 70 basis points, even as management works to hold non‑GAAP gross margin in the 67–67.5% range. ^[40]
Simply Wall St and other analysts flag persistent trade and tariff uncertainty as a key variable to monitor in coming quarters. ^[41]

3. Competitive and regulatory risk

Medtronic’s upcoming U.S. submissions for Hugo in urology and hernia indications, along with J&J’s progress on Ottava, could gradually erode Intuitive’s dominance in certain segments—even if experts still see Intuitive as the overwhelming leader. ^[42]
As Intuitive pushes into new geographies and indications, it remains exposed to regulatory shifts, reimbursement changes and local capital‑budget constraints, particularly in markets like China, Japan and parts of Europe that are still working through post‑pandemic healthcare funding pressures. ^[43]

4. Insider selling optics

The Guthart sale is likely benign and pre‑planned, but any further large‑scale insider selling could influence sentiment in a stock where expectations and multiples are already elevated. ^[44]

8. How Today’s Setup Might Look to Different Investors

(This section is general commentary, not personalized investment advice.)

Growth‑focused investors

For investors who prioritize compounders with wide moats, the bull case looks like this:

20%+ procedure growth, double‑digit revenue and EPS growth, and a steadily expanding installed base of over 10,700 da Vinci systems and nearly 1,000 Ion units. ^[45]
A massive and growing AI‑enabled robotics TAM, with surgical and AI‑first markets expected to grow at mid‑teens CAGRs over the next decade. ^[46]
Strong evidence that consumables and services—not one‑off robot sales—drive most of the profit flywheel. ^[47]

From this lens, today’s valuation may be justifiable if Intuitive can deliver on multi‑year guidance and maintain its competitive lead.

Valuation‑sensitive and income investors

For more valuation‑driven or conservative investors, several points stand out:

DCF work and fair‑value ranges clustering in the low‑ to mid‑$300s suggest today’s price bakes in many years of strong execution in advance. ^[48]
The stock does not pay a dividend, and buybacks—while meaningful (nearly $1.9 billion repurchased in Q3 alone)—may not fully offset the risk of multiple compression if growth slows. ^[49]
Many analysts who like the business still only model high‑single‑digit upside over the next 12 months at current prices. ^[50]

For this group, the recent rally plus the insider headline may argue for patience and a watchlist approach, waiting for a better entry point or a pullback before committing capital.

9. Bottom Line: A Premium Growth Franchise Under the Microscope

As of December 2, 2025, Intuitive Surgical occupies a rarefied position:

It is the clear leader in surgical robotics, with robust Q3 numbers, fast‑growing annuity‑like revenue streams, and a credible roadmap in AI and telesurgery. ^[51]
The insider sale by its executive chair is a notable but likely pre‑planned event in an otherwise bullish operational narrative. ^[52]
Analysts overwhelmingly like the business, but their price targets signal measured, not explosive, upside from today’s already elevated valuation. ^[53]

For investors considering ISRG now, the key questions are:

Are you comfortable paying 60–70x earnings for a company expected to grow revenue and profit at mid‑teens rates for many years?
Do you believe Intuitive can maintain its dominant share even as Medtronic, J&J and a host of startups intensify competition?
Does the long‑term robotics and AI‑surgery runway justify the premium you’re being asked to pay today?

If your answers skew “yes,” the latest earnings and market data reinforce the view of Intuitive as a high‑quality, long‑duration growth story. If not, the same data may confirm that this is a stock to admire from a distance until price and value come closer together.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment or trading advice. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.

References

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Stock on December 2, 2025: Da Vinci 5 Momentum, Insider Sale and 2026 Wall Street Forecasts

1. Where Intuitive Surgical Stock Stands Today