IREN Limited Stock (NASDAQ: IREN) News Today: Why Shares Are Falling, What Analysts Forecast, and How the Microsoft AI Deal Shapes 2026 (Dec. 16, 2025)

IREN Limited stock is back in the spotlight on December 16, 2025, as the high-flying “AI infrastructure” trade collides with a sharp momentum pullback — even while the company continues to point to a massive long-term runway from its GPU cloud pivot and headline-grabbing Microsoft agreement.

As of 16:39 UTC on Dec. 16, IREN was trading around $34.19, down about 3.6% on the session after opening near $34.83, with an intraday range of roughly $33.38 to $35.84 and volume above 22 million shares.

This comes a day after a steep selloff: IREN shares fell 11.59% on Monday (Dec. 15), extending a multi-week drawdown from November highs. ^[1]

Below is a detailed look at what’s driving IREN stock right now, what Wall Street forecasts imply, and the catalysts and risks investors are weighing as 2026 approaches.

What is IREN Limited — and why the stock trades like an AI proxy

IREN (formerly known as Iris Energy) began as a renewable-powered bitcoin miner, but in 2025 it increasingly marketed itself as an AI cloud and high-performance computing (HPC) infrastructure provider — building and operating data centers designed to host large GPU clusters. That pivot helped power a major rally earlier this year, but it also means IREN has become highly sensitive to sentiment around “AI infrastructure” valuations. ^[2]

Importantly, IREN still generates the vast majority of its revenue from bitcoin mining today. In the company’s most recent quarterly release (three months ended Sept. 30, 2025), IREN reported $232.9 million of bitcoin mining revenue versus $7.3 million of AI cloud services revenue (total revenue $240.3 million). ^[3]

That split matters because it frames IREN’s story as a transition: investors are paying for AI upside, while near-term financial results still largely reflect bitcoin economics and capital markets activity.

Why IREN stock is dropping in mid-December

Several threads converged into the current pullback:

1) Profit-taking hit “momentum names,” including IREN

Benzinga’s Dec. 15 coverage described IREN’s decline as part of a broader pullback in momentum/high-growth trades, with investors rotating out after a massive run and turning more cautious on AI-infrastructure valuations. ^[4]

Benzinga also reported that Paul Tudor Jones’ Tudor Investment sharply reduced its position, framing it as a notable example of profit-taking after the rally. ^[5]

2) The “Cramer effect” entered the conversation — but without details

In a separate Dec. 16 piece, Benzinga highlighted that CNBC host Jim Cramer posted “time to sell” about IREN on X after Monday’s drop — without providing a fundamental explanation. ^[6]

Media-driven calls rarely change long-term fundamentals, but they can amplify short-term attention and volatility — especially in a stock already trading emotionally after a huge run-up and reversal.

3) Post-Microsoft enthusiasm faded as the stock retraced from November highs

TipRanks noted that IREN surged to $76.41 on Nov. 5 following the Microsoft news cycle, but then suffered multiple sharp declines afterward, including a big November pullback and fresh December drops. ^[7]

Benzinga similarly described Monday’s close as deeply below the November 52-week high. ^[8]

4) Capital raising and financing complexity is part of the backdrop

While not necessarily the direct trigger for every down day, IREN has executed large-scale financings to fund its growth — and investors often react to perceived dilution risk, hedging flows, or leverage concerns. More on this below. ^[9]

The Microsoft contract: the catalyst that reshaped the IREN narrative

Much of IREN’s 2025 rerating traces back to one blockbuster headline: Microsoft signed a $9.7 billion, five-year contract with IREN to secure access to Nvidia’s advanced AI chips amid tight industry capacity. ^[10]

Reuters reported key elements that explain why markets initially reacted so strongly:

The agreement includes $5.8 billion of Nvidia GB300 chips and related equipment, provided through Dell, enabling Microsoft to expand AI capacity without building new data centers or adding new power infrastructure. ^[11]
Chips are to be deployed in phases at IREN’s Childress, Texas location, alongside 200 MW of new liquid-cooled IT infrastructure. ^[12]
Microsoft is expected to provide a prepayment (Reuters described it as helping fund part of the Dell purchase), and the deal could be terminated if IREN fails to meet delivery schedules. ^[13]
Microsoft CFO Amy Hood recently acknowledged AI capacity shortages could persist through mid-2026, underscoring the urgency behind capacity deals. ^[14]

IREN’s own Q1 FY26 results materials also emphasized the Microsoft contract structure, including a 20% customer prepayment and an expected $1.9 billion contribution to annualized run-rate revenue (ARR). ^[15]

Why this matters for IREN stock: a contract of this size can reposition IREN from “bitcoin miner with an AI side business” into a perceived hyperscaler-aligned GPU infrastructure platform — which is exactly the kind of narrative that can expand multiples (and, just as quickly, compress them when sentiment shifts).

What IREN reported most recently: Q1 FY26 results and the AI expansion roadmap

In its Q1 FY26 release (three months ended Sept. 30, 2025), IREN highlighted:

Total revenue: $240.3 million (record), up sharply year-over-year ^[16]
Adjusted EBITDA: $91.7 million (reported as a major increase) ^[17]
Cash and cash equivalents: $1.8 billion as of Oct. 31, 2025 ^[18]
A long-term ambition of $3.4 billion in AI Cloud ARR by end of 2026, tied to an expansion to 140,000 GPUs ^[19]

The company also described major infrastructure milestones, including:

Accelerating construction at Childress for Microsoft-related liquid-cooled data centers (Horizon buildout) ^[20]
Targeting Sweetwater 1 substation energization in April 2026, with additional phases later ^[21]

Management framed the GPU growth runway as substantial relative to its power footprint, saying the planned 140k GPU expansion would represent only ~16% of its 3GW grid-connected power portfolio. ^[22]

The key tension: IREN is pitching a future dominated by AI cloud economics, but today’s revenue mix still skews heavily toward bitcoin mining. Investors buying IREN as a pure AI data center play are effectively underwriting a fast transition — and the market is currently re-pricing how quickly and profitably that transition can occur.

December financing: convertible notes, equity issuance, and why traders watch it closely

IREN’s growth plan is capital-intensive, and in early December it executed major transactions to reshape its balance sheet and fund expansion.

Convertible notes offering and note repurchases (closed Dec. 8)

On Dec. 8, IREN announced it closed an offering of convertible senior notes and repurchased portions of existing convertibles, including:

Repurchase of approximately $544.3 million aggregate principal of existing convertible notes
Funded via a registered direct placement of about 39.7 million ordinary shares at $41.12 per share (gross proceeds matching the repurchase cash consideration) ^[23]

IREN also stated it intended to use proceeds (including the concurrent equity raise) to fund capped call transactions and for general corporate purposes and working capital. ^[24]

Why financing can pressure the stock even when it funds growth

A Dec. 1 Nasdaq-hosted press release discussing the proposed convertible notes offering included a warning investors often focus on: hedging and derivative activity related to convertibles and capped calls can be substantial relative to average trading volume and “may adversely affect” the trading price of the company’s ordinary shares. ^[25]

RTTNews (via Nasdaq) also described the new notes’ structure, including conversion mechanics and a capped call cap price, illustrating how sophisticated these financings can be — and why they sometimes coincide with heightened volatility. ^[26]

In short: the market may applaud IREN for securing growth capital, while still discounting near-term technical pressure from issuance, hedging flows, and uncertainty about eventual dilution.

Today’s new development: a 2x leveraged single-stock ETF tied to IREN

On Dec. 16, 2025, Themes ETF Trust announced that Leverage Shares by Themes launched four new single-stock leveraged ETFs available for trading starting today, including:

IREG – Leverage Shares 2X Long IREN Daily ETF ^[27]

The press release states these products are designed to target 200% exposure to the daily performance of the underlying stock and carry a 0.75% management fee, while emphasizing they can amplify returns “up and down.” ^[28]

Leverage Shares’ own fund materials stress that due to daily rebalancing and compounding, returns over periods longer than a single day can diverge meaningfully from 2x the underlying stock’s multi-day return — and the product is intended for knowledgeable investors who actively monitor positions. ^[29]

Why it matters for IREN stock watchers: single-stock leveraged ETFs can increase short-term trading activity and volatility in the underlying name — particularly when the stock is already moving quickly and retail attention is elevated.

Analyst forecasts for IREN stock: price targets, ratings, and what “consensus” really means

Even after the pullback, many analysts and data aggregators still show bullish targets — though estimates vary widely depending on methodology and coverage.

Here’s what several widely-followed aggregator pages showed on or around Dec. 16:

StockAnalysis: average price target $72.56; range $29 to $136; consensus rating “Buy” (9 analysts) ^[30]
MarketBeat: average price target $69.85; range $29 to $105; consensus “Moderate Buy” (18 analysts) ^[31]
TipRanks: average analyst price target $84.00 (based on its tracked set over the last three months) ^[32]
TradingView: price target $86.67; range shown as $39 to $136 ^[33]

A closer look at today’s “bull vs. bear” framing

One of the most-shared Dec. 16 narratives came from TipRanks: despite Monday’s 11.59% drop, B. Riley argued the selloff looked sentiment-driven rather than balance-sheet-driven, reaffirming a Buy rating with a $74 price target. ^[34]

At the same time, not all views are bullish. StockAnalysis’ “latest forecasts” section shows J.P. Morgan maintaining a Sell rating in late November (with a raised target in its tracked data), underscoring that skepticism remains even among major firms. ^[35]

How to interpret the spread: when a stock’s price-target range spans from the high $20s to well above $100, it’s a signal that analysts disagree less about whether the business is “interesting” and more about the timing and execution risk of the AI ramp — and what multiple that ramp deserves.

Short interest: a volatility accelerant investors shouldn’t ignore

IREN has also carried high short interest, which can exacerbate both selloffs and sharp rebounds.

MarketBeat’s short-interest page reported that as of Nov. 28, 2025, IREN had approximately:

54.53 million shares sold short,
about 20.25% of the public float,
with a short interest ratio (“days to cover”) of 1.4. ^[36]

High short interest can reflect genuine skepticism — but it also creates conditions where positive surprises (contract wins, financing terms, delivery milestones) can trigger abrupt upside moves if shorts rush to cover.

The bull case for IREN stock into 2026

Supporters of the name generally point to five pillars:

A contracted on-ramp to hyperscaler AI demand
The Microsoft contract is the anchor that many investors view as a validation event. ^[37]
A clear capacity buildout narrative
IREN is explicitly targeting GPU scale (140k GPUs) and AI cloud ARR ($3.4B) by end of 2026, while arguing its power portfolio can support more growth beyond that. ^[38]
A large power and land footprint in North America
Reuters described IREN as operating multiple renewable-powered data centers with total capacity in the multi-gigawatt range, positioning it as a meaningful infrastructure player. ^[39]
Balance-sheet flexibility — at least on paper
The company pointed to $1.8B cash as of Oct. 31, 2025 and plans to fund near-term capex through a mix of cash, operating cash flows, and customer prepayments. ^[40]
Valuation “reset” after the pullback
Benzinga highlighted that as IREN pulled back from 2025 highs, certain valuation-based scores improved — a way of saying the stock became “cheaper” relative to its earlier momentum peak. ^[41]

The bear case: what could keep pressure on IREN shares

Skeptics typically focus on these points:

Execution risk is enormous. Delivering liquid-cooled GPU infrastructure on schedule (especially tied to a major customer) is operationally complex, and Reuters noted the Microsoft deal could be terminated if delivery schedules aren’t met. ^[42]
The business is still financially dominated by bitcoin mining. For now, AI cloud revenue is small compared with mining revenue, so bitcoin price, network difficulty, and mining economics still matter greatly. ^[43]
Financing and dilution uncertainty. Large equity issuances and convertibles can create ongoing questions about eventual dilution and technical pressure from hedging activity. ^[44]
AI infrastructure multiples are compressing. Even strong companies can drop sharply if the market de-rates the entire theme — and recent coverage explicitly framed IREN’s move as part of a momentum unwind. ^[45]
Leveraged products can amplify swings. The launch of a 2x daily leveraged ETF tied to IREN may increase trading intensity — and these products are designed for short-term monitoring, not set-and-forget investing. ^[46]

Key dates and what to watch next

Next earnings window

MarketBeat lists IREN’s estimated next earnings date as Wednesday, Feb. 11, 2026, noting the company has not confirmed it yet. ^[47]

Operational milestones investors will likely track into 2026

Based on IREN’s stated roadmap, market focus is likely to center on:

Buildout progress at Childress for Microsoft-related deployments ^[48]
The Sweetwater 1 energization target in April 2026 ^[49]
Evidence that AI cloud revenue (and margins) are scaling fast enough to justify the “AI infrastructure” valuation framework ^[50]

Bottom line: IREN stock is volatile because the story is changing fast

On Dec. 16, 2025, the IREN Limited stock narrative is being pulled in two directions:

Long-term optimism driven by a massive Microsoft contract and aggressive GPU scaling targets. ^[51]
Short-term caution driven by momentum unwinds, high volatility, financing complexity, and the reality that bitcoin mining still dominates current revenue. ^[52]

References

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