Is NIO (NYSE: NIO) Stock a Buy on 16 November 2025? Record Deliveries, Q4 Profit Push and Lawsuit Risks

As of Sunday, 16 November 2025, NIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO) sits around $6.2 per share, roughly 20–25% below its early‑October 52‑week high of $8.02 but still well above this year’s lows near $3. ^[1]

Behind the volatile share price is a very mixed story:

Record deliveries in August, September and October
An ambitious Q4 2025 profitability target
A fresh $1.16 billion equity raise and shareholder dilution
A major lawsuit from Singapore’s GIC alleging inflated revenue
New analyst commentary and AI‑driven forecasts published today

Here’s a detailed look at where NIO stands right now and what investors will be watching heading into its Q3 earnings release on 25 November 2025. ^[2]

NIO Stock Today: Price, Momentum and Sentiment

Multiple data providers put NIO’s latest price in the $6.1–$6.2 range, with a market cap in the low‑teens billions of dollars. CoinCodex shows a live price of $6.16 and a market cap of $13.83 billion, while technical indicators lean bearish overall (8 bullish vs. 18 bearish indicators). ^[3]

MarketWatch notes that during the week just ended, NIO’s ADR:

Fell 3.26% on Thursday, 13 November, closing at $6.24
Logged its sixth consecutive day of losses
Traded on volumes below its 50‑day average, signaling cooling short‑term interest ^[4]

Algorithmic forecasts are cautious. CoinCodex’s model expects a small near‑term bounce (about +0.8% over five days) but projects a roughly 10% decline over the next month and deeper downside over 6–12 months if trends persist. ^[5]

On the AI/quant side, comparison site Tickeron’s fresh 16 November 2025 report rates both NIO and Tesla as “Hold”, calling NIO a short‑term trading buy but less attractive than Tesla on long‑term fundamentals. ^[6]

Deliveries Are Booming: Three Straight Monthly Records

Whatever the share price is doing, NIO’s delivery numbers are moving sharply higher across its three brands (NIO, ONVO and Firefly).

From NIO’s own press releases: ^[7]

August 2025
- 31,305 vehicles delivered
- NIO brand: 10,525
- ONVO (family brand): 16,434
- Firefly (small premium EVs): 4,346
- ONVO L90 became NIO’s fastest model ever to surpass 10,000 units in its first full month
September 2025
- 34,749 vehicles delivered
- Up 64.1% year‑over‑year
- 13,728 NIO, 15,246 ONVO, 5,775 Firefly
- Cumulative deliveries reached 872,785 vehicles
October 2025
- 40,397 vehicles delivered – a new all‑time monthly record
- Up 92.6% year‑over‑year
- 17,143 NIO, 17,342 ONVO, 5,912 Firefly
- Cumulative deliveries climbed to 913,182 (779,319 NIO, 107,621 ONVO, 26,242 Firefly)

An in‑depth feature published on 13 November argues that NIO overtook Tesla in China’s October 2025 sales, with record deliveries for NIO coinciding with one of Tesla’s weakest months in China since 2022. The piece credits NIO’s battery‑swapping network (1,300+ stations) and multi‑brand strategy as key advantages in the world’s largest EV market. ^[8]

This surge means NIO enters Q4 with real operational momentum, even as profitability remains a challenge.

Q2 2025 Results and Q3 2025 Preview

NIO’s most recent reported quarter is Q2 2025, released on 2 September 2025. According to NIO and its GlobeNewswire filing: ^[9]

Total revenue: RMB 19.0 billion (≈ $2.65 billion)
- Up 9.0% year‑on‑year
- Up 57.9% quarter‑on‑quarter
Vehicle deliveries:72,056 units in Q2
Gross margin:10.0%, sharply improved versus Q1
EPS: around –$0.25, beating analyst expectations of –$0.30

Despite the improvement, NIO is still loss‑making. One recent analyst summary notes that 2024 net losses totaled roughly $3.1 billion, underlining how far the company still has to go before delivering consistent profits. ^[10]

Q3 2025: Earnings Coming 25 November

NIO will report its Q3 2025 results on 25 November 2025, before U.S. markets open. ^[11]

Key known Q3 datapoints:

Deliveries:87,071 vehicles, a record quarter, up 40.8% year‑on‑year and 20.8% sequentially
Conference call: 7:00 a.m. U.S. Eastern Time on 25 November, with a webcast on NIO’s investor relations site

Public.com’s data shows Wall Street expecting Q3 EPS of about –$0.24, a modest improvement versus Q2. ^[12]

CEO William Li’s Q4 2025 Profitability Push

The biggest narrative into late 2025 is whether NIO can finally turn profitable in Q4 2025.

In an October internal meeting reported by CnEVPost and others, founder and CEO William Li reiterated that achieving profitability in Q4 2025 is a must‑hit target, urging employees to push hard over the final ~70 days of the year. ^[13]

A detailed Q&A with customers published on 10 November goes further: ^[14]

Li says NIO is “still confident” it can reach its first profitable quarter in Q4, while calling it a “quite big” challenge.
He stresses cost control, highlighting that NIO has no major new model launches in Q4, which helps avoid one‑off marketing and R&D surges.
Management previously set a Q4 delivery goal of 150,000 vehicles across NIO, ONVO and Firefly.
After delivering 221,970 vehicles in 2024, NIO originally aimed to double deliveries in 2025 (~444,000 units) but has cut that full‑year 2025 goal to about 350,000, acknowledging the difficulty of the original target.

Li also described margins on ONVO and Firefly vehicles as “quite good” and better than internal expectations, suggesting sub‑brand scale could help lift group profitability over time. ^[15]

At the same time, NIO is pushing expansion:

ONVO is planned to enter European markets from 2027
Firefly’s next model is only expected in 2027, keeping its capital intensity in check near term
The group plans to start accepting orders for NIO and Firefly vehicles in Austria, Greece and Portugal “soon”
In Sweden, NIO’s battery‑swap stations have been approved to help stabilise the electricity grid, adding a new revenue and strategic angle for its energy infrastructure business ^[16]

All of this sets the stage for Q3 guidance updates and Q4 commentary on the upcoming earnings call.

Capital Raise: $1.16 Billion for R&D and Battery Swapping – and 12% Dilution

On 17 September 2025, NIO completed a US$1.16 billion equity offering, selling 209,090,918 Class A ordinary shares across New York and Hong Kong. ^[17]

Key details:

ADS offering: 160,823,190 ADS at $5.57 per ADS
HK ordinary share offering: 20,995,000 shares at HK$43.36 each
Underwriters fully exercised an option to buy an extra 27,272,728 ADS, signaling strong demand despite sector headwinds

Management says the proceeds will be used to: ^[18]

Fund R&D in core EV and smart‑vehicle technologies
Develop future platforms and models across NIO, ONVO and Firefly
Expand its battery‑swapping and charging network
Strengthen the balance sheet and provide general corporate liquidity

Analysts estimate the raise is equivalent to roughly 12% shareholder dilution, a meaningful hit for existing holders but arguably necessary in such a capital‑intensive industry. ^[19]

Legal Overhang: GIC Lawsuit Alleging Inflated Revenue

The biggest new risk factor in 2025 is a lawsuit from GIC, Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund.

According to a Reuters summary of the complaint filed in August 2025 in U.S. federal court, GIC accuses NIO and several executives of inflating revenue between March 2022 and June 2024 by mis‑representing certain battery‑as‑a‑service and related transactions. ^[20]

Key points from the filing:

GIC claims it lost at least $785 million on NIO investments
The suit alleges NIO’s disclosures misled investors about the economic substance and profitability of parts of its business
NIO has denied wrongdoing and said it will defend itself vigorously

After Reuters reported on the case in mid‑October, NIO shares dropped around 12% in a single session, underlining how sensitive the stock is to trust and governance issues. ^[21]

The lawsuit may take years to resolve, but it is now firmly part of the investment risk profile for NIO.

Institutional Flows: Mixed Signals From Big Investors

Institutional behaviour around NIO in recent weeks has been highly mixed:

EV‑focused outlet EV reports that UBS, previously NIO’s largest institutional shareholder, cut its stake by about 59% in Q3, while BlackRock trimmed its position by roughly 43%. ^[22]
At the same time, a November piece highlighted a fund initiating a new ~$142 million position in NIO, signaling that other institutions see opportunity at current levels. ^[23]

Overall, the message is that institutional conviction is not one‑sided: some large holders are taking profits or de‑risking, while others are using weakness to build positions.

NIO Capital and Dexmal: Betting on Embodied AI Robots

While NIO Inc. focuses on EVs, its affiliated venture arm NIO Capital (founded by William Li and Ian Zhu) has been busy building an ecosystem around AI, autonomy and mobility. ^[24]

The standout deal this week:

Dexmal, an embodied‑intelligence robotics startup, announced that it has raised “hundreds of millions” of RMB in an A+ round led by Alibaba, with cumulative funding across A and A+ rounds near ¥1 billion (~$140 million). ^[25]
Earlier, NIO Capital led Dexmal’s Series A, with follow‑on investments from Hongtai Fund, Legend Capital and others. ^[26]

Dexmal builds end‑to‑end embodied AI systems and has open‑sourced toolkits such as the Dexbotic VLA toolbox and a modular robot hardware platform. ^[27]

While NIO Inc. doesn’t consolidate Dexmal, the deal underscores how NIO’s broader ecosystem is pushing into AI‑driven robotics, potentially relevant for future:

Factory automation
Service robots in NIO Houses
Advanced perception and control systems that could feed back into autonomous driving

For investors, it’s a reminder that NIO’s story extends beyond vehicles to a wider tech and energy ecosystem, even if most of that upside is still speculative.

Fresh Analyst and AI Views Published Today

TipRanks: “‘Worth a Bet,’ Says Investor About NIO Stock Ahead of Earnings”

A new TipRanks article published today, 16 November 2025, takes a balanced look at NIO heading into Q3 earnings: ^[28]

Bull points:

NIO is “steadily strengthening its position” in the EV market
Shares are up about 50% over the past six months, even after the recent pullback
October’s 40,397 deliveries marked the third straight record month, with 92.6% year‑on‑year growth
Q4 profitability remains a realistic—if ambitious—target

Bear points:

The stock is still down roughly 86% from its five‑year highs
NIO remains deeply unprofitable, with net losses of about $3.1 billion in 2024
Its European expansion has underwhelmed, with just 833 vehicles sold year‑to‑date versus 2,365 in 2023 and 1,630 in 2024

The conclusion isn’t “strong buy” or “avoid at all costs”; instead, the piece frames NIO as a high‑risk, high‑reward bet where improved execution could offer upside, but balance‑sheet and execution risks remain serious.

Quant & Valuation Models

AlphaSpread’s DCF‑style model pegs NIO’s “intrinsic value” around $11.27 per share, versus the current price near $6.16, implying large upside if assumptions prove correct. The platform also warns that losses continue and margins still trail some peers. ^[29]
CoinCodex’s quant model, by contrast, is more cautious, projecting negative returns over the next 6–12 months despite the delivery boom. ^[30]
Public.com aggregates analyst ratings that average out to “Hold”, with a consensus price target around $6.32, only slightly above today’s price. ^[31]

This divergence between fundamental valuation models, quant signals and human analysts is exactly what makes NIO so contested.

The Big Questions Before NIO’s 25 November Earnings

Going into Q3 2025 results, here are the key issues serious investors will likely focus on:

Margins and operating leverage
- Can NIO translate higher deliveries from NIO, ONVO and Firefly into sustainably higher gross margins and narrowing losses?
- How much of Q2’s 10% gross margin improvement was one‑time vs. structural? ^[32]
Q4 guidance and the profitability target
- Does management reaffirm, soften or withdraw the Q4 profitability goal on the call?
- Is the 150,000‑vehicle Q4 delivery target still realistic given current trends and the cut to full‑year guidance? ^[33]
Cash burn and balance sheet
- How quickly is the $1.16 billion from September’s offering being deployed?
- Does NIO outline a credible path to neutral or positive free cash flow without further major dilution? ^[34]
Regulatory and legal risks
- Any update on the GIC lawsuit and potential exposure?
- How is NIO managing EU and U.S. tariff pressures while reshaping its international strategy? ^[35]
Global expansion and ecosystem bets
- Concrete milestones for ONVO and Firefly in Europe and, eventually, North America
- Progress on battery‑swap partnerships and energy‑grid services in Europe
- How ventures like Dexmal could tie back to NIO’s core business over time ^[36]

So… Is NIO Stock a Buy Today?

From a Google News/Discover‑style perspective, the story of NIO on 16 November 2025 looks like this:

Momentum: Deliveries are surging, and NIO just posted three consecutive monthly records.
Ambition: Management still talks about Q4 profitability and aggressive expansion at home and abroad.
Risk: The business is still loss‑making, has diluted shareholders, and faces a serious lawsuit from GIC plus intense competition in the China EV market.
Market view: Analysts cluster around “Hold”, quant tools are split, and institutions are both buying and selling in size. ^[37]

Whether NIO is a buy for you depends heavily on your:

Tolerance for volatility and legal risk
Conviction in China’s EV penetration continuing to rise
Belief that NIO can execute on multi‑brand scaling + battery swapping without running out of cash

If you’re considering an investment, it’s essential to do your own detailed research, stress‑test different scenarios for deliveries, margins and dilution, and, ideally, consult a qualified financial adviser who understands your personal situation. This article is for information only and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Will NIO Bounce Back This Week? ⚠️ Key Catalysts to Watch │ NIO Stock Analysis