New York, Jan 29, 2026, 09:19 EST — Premarket
- Itaú Unibanco’s shares listed in the U.S. climbed roughly 1.1% in premarket trading, building on gains from the past two sessions.
- Brazil’s central bank kept its Selic rate steady at 15%, signaling that rate cuts could begin as soon as March, reigniting interest in the country’s lenders.
- Itaú’s earnings report on Feb. 4 is the next major event for investors, with a follow-up briefing slated for Feb. 5.
Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A.’s U.S.-listed shares gained roughly 1.1%, reaching $8.88 in premarket trading Thursday, following a broader rise in Brazilian bank ADRs. Banco Bradesco’s shares edged up slightly, while Santander Brasil’s ADRs also showed early gains.
The decision follows Brazil’s central bank holding its benchmark Selic rate steady at 15% on Wednesday. The bank also hinted it plans to start easing in March but urged “serenity” regarding the speed and scale of cuts. Flavio Serrano, chief economist at Banco BMG, said, “Even as they indicate more caution about the potential pace of adjustments, we maintain our view that the central bank will cut the Selic by 50 basis points in March.” (Reuters)
That’s crucial because the rate trajectory shapes what investors are willing to pay for Brazilian banks — and what returns they anticipate — well before any cuts actually happen. Moving toward easing can boost credit demand, but it also affects how fast banks adjust loan and deposit rates, the key to their margins.
As Itaú approaches earnings season, management’s remarks could sway the stock more than the raw figures. Traders will be tuning in for clues on the trajectory of credit costs and whether loan growth is holding up amid a slowing economy.
On Wednesday, the ADR edged toward an all-time closing peak, per Dow Jones data referenced by Morningstar. (Morningstar, Inc.)
Itaú plans to release its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on Feb. 4, followed by a virtual results meeting on Feb. 5, according to the bank’s investor relations calendar. (Itaú)
Investors in the short term zero in on familiar stress areas for banks: provisions (funds reserved for bad loans), fee income, and the resilience of net interest income as the rate cycle shifts. Signs of tougher competition or rising household delinquencies can quickly dull the appeal of a rate-cut narrative.
The rate pivot isn’t set in stone. If inflation proves more persistent, currency fluctuations return, or Brazil’s fiscal outlook wobbles again, the pace of cuts could stall — throwing doubt on whether lower rates will soon lead to cleaner credit and more stable growth.
The next key data point comes with earnings on Feb. 4, followed by the Feb. 5 briefing. After that, all eyes shift to the central bank’s March decision — will the calm give way to a modest cut, or will rates hold steady?
