Johnson & Johnson stock (NYSE: JNJ) has quietly turned into one of 2025’s standout blue‑chip winners. As of December 9, 2025, JNJ trades around $202 per share, valuing the company at roughly $486 billion and leaving the stock up close to 40% year to date. [1]
That move reflects more than just a defensive bid for a safe dividend name. Investors are reacting to a powerful combination of:
- A clean Q3 2025 earnings beat and higher full‑year guidance
- A surprise plan to spin off the $9+ billion orthopaedics business DePuy Synthes
- Strong oncology and MedTech data that support a multi‑year growth story
- A 63‑year dividend growth streak that continues with a fresh payout hitting accounts today
Below is a detailed, news‑driven look at what’s moving Johnson & Johnson stock on December 9, 2025, and how Wall Street currently values and forecasts JNJ.
Johnson & Johnson stock today: price, performance and role in the market
- Share price: Around $201–202 on December 9, 2025
- Market cap: Roughly $485–486 billion [2]
- Year‑to‑date performance: Nearly +40% in 2025, with about 14% of that gain coming in just the last three months. [3]
Recent trading has been choppy but still firmly within an uptrend. Technical research site StockInvest notes that:
- JNJ closed at $201.62 on Monday, December 8, down slightly on the day
- The stock has slipped in 6 of the last 10 sessions, but remains in a “strong rising trend” in the short term
- Their models project around 16% upside over the next three months, with a 90% probability range of $227–$245 by early March 2026, labeling JNJ a “Buy or Hold candidate.” [4]
At the index level, JNJ continues to behave like a classic Dow defensive. A recent MarketWatch update highlighted Johnson & Johnson and Procter & Gamble as the largest positive contributors to a 130‑plus‑point Dow rally, underscoring JNJ’s renewed role as a “steady‑hand” stock in a rate‑cut‑watching market. [5]
The big story: Q3 2025 earnings beat and higher guidance
Johnson & Johnson’s latest leg higher really began with its third‑quarter 2025 results, released on October 14.
Headline numbers
For Q3 2025, J&J reported: [6]
- Revenue:$23.99 billion, up 6.8% year over year (vs. ~$22.47B a year ago)
- GAAP net income:$5.15 billion, up 91%
- GAAP EPS:$2.12, up 91%
- Adjusted EPS:$2.80, up 15.7%, and ahead of Wall Street’s ~$2.76 consensus
Segment‑wise:
- Innovative Medicine sales were $15.56 billion, up 6.8% reported (about 5.3% operational)
- MedTech sales were $8.43 billion, also up 6.8% reported (about 5.6% operational) [7]
Growth in Innovative Medicine was led by:
- DARZALEX, CARVYKTI, ERLEADA and RYBREVANT/LAZCLUZE in oncology
- TREMFYA and SIMPONI in immunology
- SPRAVATO in neuroscience
These gains more than offset heavy pressure from STELARA’s loss of exclusivity, which has dragged on immunology revenue. [8]
Guidance raised for 2025
Alongside the Q3 beat, management raised its 2025 product revenue outlook to $93.5–$93.9 billion, ahead of prior guidance and street expectations. [9]
Analysts have generally interpreted this as evidence that:
- Newer growth drivers in oncology and neuroscience are scaling more quickly than feared
- MedTech is stabilizing despite weakness in orthopaedics, which is now heading for a spin‑off
- The company can absorb patent‑expiration hits while still delivering mid‑single‑digit revenue and mid‑teens adjusted EPS growth
Orthopaedics spin-off: DePuy Synthes to stand alone
The other major catalyst tied to Q3 results was Johnson & Johnson’s surprise decision to separate its Orthopaedics business into a standalone company.
What’s being spun out?
On October 14, 2025, J&J announced it intends to spin off its orthopaedics franchise as DePuy Synthes, creating what it says will be the largest pure‑play orthopaedics company in the world. [10]
Key facts:
- DePuy Synthes generated about $9.2 billion in sales in 2024, roughly 10% of J&J’s total revenue [11]
- The business serves a $50+ billion global market and treats around seven million patients annually in areas such as hip, knee and shoulder implants [12]
- The separation is expected to complete within 18–24 months, i.e., sometime in 2027 at the latest [13]
- DePuy Synthes is expected to carry an investment‑grade balance sheet, and former Smith & Nephew CEO Namal Nawana has been appointed to lead the business through and after the spin‑off. [14]
Why the spin-off matters for JNJ stock
Management and external commentators frame the move similarly:
- J&J wants to focus on higher‑growth, higher‑margin markets – notably oncology, immunology, neuroscience and cardiovascular within Innovative Medicine, plus higher‑innovation areas in MedTech. [15]
- Orthopaedics has been profitable but has grown meaningfully slower than the rest of the portfolio, creating a drag on consolidated growth and margins. [16]
Analysts suggest the separation could:
- Lift J&J’s margin profile, as lower‑growth orthopaedics moves off the consolidated P&L
- Clarify the investment story for both companies
- Potentially unlock multiple expansion for the “new” J&J as a more focused medicines + high‑innovation MedTech leader
For now, the spin‑off remains a medium‑term catalyst. The key watchpoints for investors will be:
- Final transaction structure (pure spin, split‑off, or hybrid)
- Leverage levels at DePuy Synthes
- Any one‑time charges or dis‑synergies that could hit J&J’s earnings during the transition
New clinical data: Oncology pipeline strengthens the growth narrative
While legal headlines often dominate J&J coverage, the current investment story hinges increasingly on its oncology portfolio and pipeline. Several high‑impact data releases have landed in just the last few days:
MajesTEC‑3: Tecvayli + Darzalex FASPRO in multiple myeloma
On December 9, 2025, J&J announced “unprecedented results” from the Phase 3 MajesTEC‑3 trial, studying TECVAYLI (teclistamab) plus DARZALEX FASPRO in relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma (RRMM). [17]
The combination:
- Significantly reduced the risk of disease progression and death versus standard‑of‑care regimens
- Delivered what independent coverage at the ASH meeting describes as “remarkable” results that may support earlier‑line use and even potential curative intent for some patients
If regulators ultimately support moving this regimen into second‑line treatment, it could materially expand J&J’s multiple‑myeloma franchise and reinforce its competitive positioning against other bispecific and CAR‑T therapies.
CARVYKTI: Durable, treatment‑free remissions
A separate update from the Phase 3 CARTITUDE‑4 study showed that CARVYKTI (ciltacabtagene autoleucel) delivered durable, treatment‑free remissions at 2.5 years when used as early as second line in RRMM:
- About 80% of as‑treated standard‑risk patients treated at first relapse remained progression‑free and off further treatment at 30 months. [18]
With more than 9,000 patients treated globally across real‑world and clinical settings, CARVYKTI is evolving into a flagship asset for J&J’s cell therapy ambitions.
RYBREVANT + LAZCLUZE in lung cancer
In EGFR‑mutated non‑small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), J&J recently reported final overall‑survival data from the Phase 3 MARIPOSA study in Asian patients using RYBREVANT (amivantamab) + LAZCLUZE (lazertinib):
- The combination delivered a statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement in overall survival compared with standard treatment, reinforcing earlier global data suggesting it could challenge current first‑line standard osimertinib. [19]
INLEXZO and bladder‑cancer progress
In urologic oncology, J&J announced that INLEXZO (gemcitabine intravesical system) achieved:
- 74% disease‑free survival at one year in BCG‑unresponsive, high‑risk papillary‑only non‑muscle‑invasive bladder cancer
- Over 95% of patients progression‑free at one year and more than 92% avoiding bladder removal (cystectomy) in Cohort 4 of the SunRISe‑1 study. [20]
These updates collectively support the idea that J&J’s post‑STELARA future is increasingly anchored in oncology, with multiple shots on goal across multiple myeloma, lung cancer and bladder cancer.
Dividend strength: 63 years of raises and a fresh payout today
For income‑focused investors, JNJ remains one of the premier dividend franchises in the market:
- J&J has now raised its dividend for 63 consecutive years, solidly in Dividend Aristocrat and Dividend King territory. [21]
- The company currently pays $1.30 per share quarterly, or $5.20 annually, implying a dividend yield around 2.5–2.6% at current prices. [22]
- The Q4 2025 dividend of $1.30 is payable on December 9, 2025 – meaning shareholders of record are literally being paid today. [23]
TradingView/Invezz recently highlighted JNJ as a “classic defensive anchor”, pointing to its long dividend track record, ~2.6% yield and a payout ratio around 50%, which still leaves room for further increases. [24]
A separate 24/7 Wall St piece classifies Johnson & Johnson as one of the “best S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats to buy before 2026”, noting that the stock trades at about 14.5x forward earnings while offering a 2.45% dividend yield and clean balance sheet. [25]
Talc litigation: a major overhang that hasn’t gone away
Despite the rally, talc powder litigation remains the single biggest non‑fundamental risk on investors’ minds.
Where the litigation stands
Legal‑industry trackers estimate that:
- Over 90,000 Johnson & Johnson talc lawsuits have been filed as of December 2025, spanning ovarian cancer, mesothelioma and other illnesses allegedly tied to asbestos‑contaminated talc products. [26]
- Federal multidistrict litigation alone includes 60,000+ active cases, with updates in late 2025 noting around 67,000 federal lawsuits plus thousands more in state courts and in the UK. [27]
Recent verdicts and rulings include:
- An almost $1 billion ($966 million) mesothelioma verdict from a Los Angeles jury in October 2025, which J&J has said it will appeal. [28]
- Multiple additional multi‑million‑dollar verdicts in Florida, Louisiana and other jurisdictions during 2025. [29]
- A bankruptcy judge’s March 2025 decision blocking J&J’s third attempt to resolve ovarian‑cancer claims via a Chapter 11 subsidiary and an $8 billion settlement proposal, forcing the company back into traditional litigation and mediation. [30]
Many plaintiff firms interpret the failed bankruptcy strategy and large verdicts as leverage toward a global settlement, but there is still no final agreement in place. For J&J shareholders, this means:
- Ongoing headline risk from new verdicts and filings
- Continued legal and settlement expense
- Uncertainty around the ultimate total cost, which could run into the tens of billions of dollars over time depending on outcomes
The FT reports that J&J plans to appeal the $966 million verdict and continues to insist its talc products were safe, even as it maintains 2025 earnings guidance. [31]
Analyst ratings and JNJ stock forecast
Street consensus
According to data compiled by Public.com, as of December 9, 2025:
- 15 analysts cover Johnson & Johnson
- The consensus rating is “Buy” – about 27% Strong Buy, 20% Buy and 53% Hold, with no Sell recommendations reported
- The average 12‑month price target is $199.40, effectively in line with the current share price. [32]
Quiver Quantitative, which aggregates analyst targets, reports that over the last six months: [33]
- 14 analysts have issued price targets, with a median target of $202
- Recent notable targets include:
- $227 from Guggenheim (Dec 5, 2025)
- $215 from Citigroup
- $209 from Raymond James
- Several targets around $190–197 from Morgan Stanley, Barclays and others
This leaves JNJ trading:
- Near its consensus fair value (around $199–202)
- Below the bullish end of the range ($220+), which implies roughly 10–15% upside if the more optimistic forecasts prove correct
Quant and narrative valuations
Simply Wall St’s latest narrative on JNJ, published December 9, frames the 40% year‑to‑date rally as “catch‑up to fair value” rather than outright froth: [34]
- The stock recently closed at $201.62
- Their intrinsic‑value model pegs “fair value” at around $202.54, implying JNJ is slightly undervalued, not expensive, even after the run
- They highlight a 5‑year total shareholder return of about 56%, suggesting a steady compounding profile
On the pure technical side, StockInvest’s models project low‑double‑digit upside over the next three months, as noted earlier, but those forecasts are based on price and volume patterns rather than fundamentals. [35]
Valuation and dividend profile in context
Putting it all together, current valuation and income metrics look roughly as follows:
- Forward P/E: About 14.5x 2025 earnings, according to 24/7 Wall St. [36]
- Dividend yield: Roughly 2.5–2.6%, with a long runway of annual increases and a payout ratio around half of earnings. [37]
- Balance sheet: DePuy Synthes is expected to be spun with an investment‑grade profile, and J&J historically carries low leverage for a mega‑cap pharma/medtech peer. [38]
Compared with other Dividend Aristocrats and large‑cap pharma names, JNJ’s multiple still screens as reasonable, especially when set against:
- High‑quality cash flows from established franchises
- A deep oncology and neuroscience pipeline
- The potential for margin expansion post orthopaedics spin‑off
The main counter‑argument is that, after a 40% year‑to‑date move, the margin of safety has narrowed: consensus and intrinsic‑value estimates cluster very close to the current price, so future returns are likely to depend on continued execution, not multiple re‑rating alone. [39]
Short-, medium- and long-term drivers to watch
Near term (next 3–6 months)
- Fed rate cuts and market risk appetite: JNJ has recently benefited from rotation into defensive, dividend‑paying stocks ahead of the Fed’s final 2025 decision. If risk appetite swings back to growth or small caps, the stock could lag even if fundamentals remain solid. [40]
- Ongoing talc verdicts and mediation updates: Additional large verdicts or a surprise global settlement framework would be immediate stock movers. [41]
- Follow‑up oncology data and conference presentations at ASH and other meetings – especially around MajesTEC‑3 and CARTITUDE‑4 – may further shape perceptions of long‑term growth. [42]
Medium term (2026–2027)
- Execution of the DePuy Synthes spin‑off: Investors will watch how cleanly the separation proceeds, what capital structure the new company gets, and whether J&J can sustain or expand margins post‑transaction. [43]
- Offsetting STELARA’s patent cliff: Continued scaling of TREMFYA, oncology assets and neuroscience products like SPRAVATO will be crucial to backfilling lost immunology revenue. [44]
- Regulatory outcomes for Tecvayli/Darzalex combinations, CARVYKTI in earlier lines, and RYBREVANT/LAZCLUZE, which collectively could define J&J’s oncology growth profile for the remainder of the decade. [45]
Long term (beyond 2027)
- J&J’s ability to sustain innovation across oncology, immunology, neuroscience and cardiometabolic diseases will determine whether it can remain a growth‑plus‑income compounder, not just a bond‑proxy dividend stock. [46]
- Legal overhang resolution in talc and any other legacy products will influence how much of its formidable cash flow can be returned to shareholders versus reserved for settlements and legal expenses. [47]
Bottom line: How does JNJ look after a 40% run?
As of December 9, 2025, the case for Johnson & Johnson stock looks roughly like this:
Bullish points
- A clean Q3 beat with raised sales guidance and stable earnings outlook
- A strategically sensible orthopaedics spin‑off that could sharpen J&J’s focus on faster‑growing, higher‑margin areas
- Multiple high‑profile oncology wins, particularly in multiple myeloma and lung cancer
- A rock‑solid dividend, 63 years of raises, and a payout that remains well‑covered by earnings
- Valuation that is reasonable rather than stretched, with forward P/E in the mid‑teens
Key risks
- A large and still‑growing talc litigation docket, with recent verdicts approaching $1 billion and no final global settlement
- Execution risk around the DePuy Synthes separation and potential volatility as investors re‑underwrite both entities
- Ongoing patent cliffs and pricing pressure across major drugs, especially in immunology
Most current analyst work suggests JNJ is now trading close to its consensus fair value, with a blend of mid‑single‑digit earnings growth plus a 2.5%–3% dividend yield likely to drive returns from here, barring a material litigation shock or an upside surprise from the pipeline. [48]
For investors seeking:
- Large‑cap stability
- Exposure to innovative medicine and medtech
- And a reliable, growing dividend
Johnson & Johnson remains a central name to watch – especially as the orthopaedics spin‑off and oncology data continue to reshape the story through 2026 and beyond.
References
1. www.trefis.com, 2. www.trefis.com, 3. simplywall.st, 4. stockinvest.us, 5. www.marketwatch.com, 6. www.investor.jnj.com, 7. www.investor.jnj.com, 8. www.investor.jnj.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.jnj.com, 11. www.investor.jnj.com, 12. www.investor.jnj.com, 13. www.medtechdive.com, 14. www.advisory.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.barrons.com, 17. www.marketscreener.com, 18. www.jnj.com, 19. trial.medpath.com, 20. www.jnj.com, 21. www.tradingview.com, 22. www.tradingview.com, 23. stockinvest.us, 24. www.tradingview.com, 25. 247wallst.com, 26. www.sokolovelaw.com, 27. www.robertkinglawfirm.com, 28. www.robertkinglawfirm.com, 29. www.robertkinglawfirm.com, 30. www.sokolovelaw.com, 31. www.ft.com, 32. public.com, 33. www.quiverquant.com, 34. simplywall.st, 35. stockinvest.us, 36. 247wallst.com, 37. www.tradingview.com, 38. www.investor.jnj.com, 39. simplywall.st, 40. www.tradingview.com, 41. www.robertkinglawfirm.com, 42. www.jnj.com, 43. www.investor.jnj.com, 44. www.investor.jnj.com, 45. www.jnj.com, 46. www.investor.jnj.com, 47. www.sokolovelaw.com, 48. public.com
