As of 7:41 p.m. ET in New York on Friday, December 26, 2025, the U.S. stock market’s regular session has ended, leaving investors to digest a year-end rally that has pushed major indexes close to record territory and helped keep JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) in focus heading into the final trading days of 2025.
JPM stock last traded around $327.91, down about 0.4% versus the prior close, after a session that saw shares range from $326.55 to $330.82.
With thin post-holiday volumes, a “Santa Claus rally” setup, and a steady drumbeat of bank-specific catalysts—ranging from expense guidance to digital-asset ambitions—JPMorgan enters the final stretch of the year with momentum, but also with important near-term risks investors should understand before Monday’s opening bell.
JPM stock: where it stands after Friday’s close
JPMorgan has been trading at elevated levels into late December, and recent sessions have shown buyers stepping in quickly on dips. In Friday’s trading, the stock moved back toward the $330 area—a level that has increasingly mattered to both short-term traders and longer-term investors watching for sustained new highs. [1]
The broader market backdrop matters here: Wall Street ended Friday’s post-Christmas session nearly unchanged and close to all-time highs, with investors citing profit-taking after a strong run and noting that holiday liquidity can exaggerate price swings. [2]
The market backdrop: year-end momentum meets Fed uncertainty
JPMorgan’s near-term trading often tracks the “macro” narrative for U.S. financials: rate expectations, economic resilience, and capital markets activity.
Going into the final week of 2025, Reuters reported that investors are looking for U.S. equities to end the year strong, with the S&P 500 about 1% away from 7,000 and positioned for a lengthy streak of monthly gains. [3]
At the same time, the interest-rate story remains central for bank stocks:
- Reuters reported the Federal Reserve cut rates by 75 basis points over its last three meetings of 2025, bringing the policy range to 3.50%–3.75%. [4]
- Investors are watching for clues on the 2026 path from the minutes of the Fed’s December meeting, expected next week. [5]
That matters for JPM because rate cuts can pressure certain interest-income lines, even as they may support loan growth, capital markets activity, and credit conditions if the economy remains stable.
The biggest JPMorgan-specific headline: 2026 expenses are projected higher
One of the most market-moving JPM headlines this month came from Marianne Lake, CEO of Consumer & Community Banking, who said the firm expects 2026 expenses of about $105 billion—above what Reuters cited as the average analyst expectation of $100.84 billion (LSEG data). [6]
In the same remarks, Reuters reported Lake also provided a more constructive tone on revenue lines tied to Wall Street activity:
- Investment banking revenue expected to be up low-single digits in Q4
- Markets revenue expected to be up in the low teens in Q4
- A more constructive environment for bank M&A [7]
Why this matters for JPM stock: investors have rewarded JPMorgan’s scale, diversification, and execution—but at record-ish prices, the market can become less forgiving on costs. Expense discipline is a key swing factor as the market models 2026 profitability.
Digital assets angle: JPMorgan weighs crypto trading for institutional clients
Another fresh catalyst is JPMorgan’s exploration of potential cryptocurrency trading capabilities for institutional clients. Reuters reported the bank is evaluating whether its markets business could expand into crypto trading—potentially including spot and derivatives—though the effort is still described as early-stage and dependent on client demand. [8]
For JPM shareholders, this story is less about a near-term earnings inflection and more about:
- staying competitive as large financial institutions broaden digital-asset offerings,
- positioning in market infrastructure and custody/trading ecosystems,
- and future fee opportunities if institutional participation continues to expand.
But investors should also recognize that regulatory and reputational considerations can shape both the pace and scope of any rollout.
What fundamentals have supported JPM in 2025
JPMorgan’s 2025 narrative has been underpinned by a mix of interest-income durability and a rebound in capital markets activity.
Net interest income guidance rose during 2025
In July, Reuters reported JPMorgan raised its 2025 net interest income forecast to about $95.5 billion, citing strength in investment banking and trading. [9]
In October, Reuters reported JPMorgan revised its NII forecast higher again to roughly $95.8 billion and said it expects 2026 interest income (excluding markets) of $95 billion, driven by balance sheet growth but partially offset by lower rates. [10]
Capital markets activity improved
Reuters’ October report also described improving deal conditions, with JPM’s leadership noting favorable equity valuations and increased M&A activity, alongside a strong quarter for both equities and fixed-income trading revenues. [11]
Expert perspective from investors watching JPM
Reuters quoted Brian Mulberry of Zacks Investment Management emphasizing that NII remains a core earnings engine and that higher NII guidance signaled management confidence in interest-earning assets. [12]
Dividend and capital returns: what income-focused investors should note
JPMorgan declared a quarterly dividend of $1.50 per share, payable January 31, 2026, to shareholders of record as of January 6, 2026. [13]
Separately, JPMorgan previously announced a $50 billion common share repurchase program, effective July 1, 2025, to be used at management’s discretion. [14]
These capital return levers can matter at year-end because they provide a tangible “shareholder yield” framework that can help support the stock during choppy tape—though buyback timing is always subject to capital requirements, market conditions, and management judgment.
Next major catalyst: JPMorgan’s Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings date
JPMorgan is scheduled to release results for Q4 and full-year 2025 on Tuesday, January 13, 2026 (results around 7:00 a.m. ET, followed by a conference call at 8:30 a.m. ET), according to the company. [15]
With JPM trading near record levels, the earnings call could turn into a high-stakes “expectations management” event. Investors will likely be listening for:
- updates on 2026 expense discipline beyond the $105B headline,
- net interest income sensitivity under further rate cuts,
- credit quality trends (especially consumer and commercial real estate),
- and investment banking / trading run-rates as 2026 begins.
Analyst forecasts and price targets: where the Street sees JPM stock
On Wall Street, price targets remain wide, reflecting a tug-of-war between JPMorgan’s scale advantage and concerns about cost growth and the rate cycle.
MarketWatch’s analyst estimates page lists stock price targets with a high of $375, a median of $339, and a low of $260. [16]
Recent research notes and updates also reflect continued bullishness among some firms:
- TipRanks (via TheFly) reported UBS raised its price target to $350 from $339 and kept a Buy rating, pointing to drivers including deregulation themes, improved capital markets activity, and loan growth. [17]
- Investing.com reported TD Cowen raised its price target to $375 from $370 while maintaining a Buy rating, highlighting JPM’s strategic investments and competitive positioning in its corporate and investment bank. [18]
Important context for investors: price targets are not guarantees; they’re scenario-driven estimates that can shift quickly with changes in Fed expectations, credit losses, and bank regulation.
If you’re holding JPM stock into the next session: what to watch before Monday’s open
Because it’s Friday evening in New York and the NYSE regular session is closed, the next full market session begins Monday, December 29, with NYSE core trading hours running 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. [19]
Here are the most practical, near-term swing factors for JPM shareholders:
1) Fed minutes and rate-cut expectations
Reuters flagged the Fed minutes as a major event risk next week, with investors focused on how many cuts could come in 2026. [20]
For JPM, shifting rate expectations can move the stock quickly because they impact forward assumptions on net interest income and loan demand.
2) Year-end liquidity and “amplified” moves
Reuters also highlighted that year-end portfolio adjustments and light holiday volumes can magnify price movements. [21]
Translation: the tape can feel “jumpy,” and JPM—given its size and index influence—can move even on modest sector rotations.
3) Macro data prints that influence yields and the curve
MarketWatch’s economic calendar preview lists upcoming U.S. data points for next week (including housing-related releases), which can matter for Treasury yields and rate expectations. [22]
Investor checklist: smart things to know before the next JPM trading day
If you’re planning trades—or deciding whether to add, trim, or hedge—here are investor-relevant points to keep in mind before Monday’s session:
- Know the near-term calendar: JPM earnings are set for Jan. 13, and the next dividend’s shareholder record date is Jan. 6. [23]
- Costs are a key debate: JPM’s $105B 2026 expense outlook is a real headline risk if the market starts demanding margin expansion rather than growth investment. [24]
- Watch rates, not just the stock: JPM’s own guidance has tied future interest income to balance sheet growth but also acknowledged the offset from lower rates. [25]
- Expect noise: Thin year-end trading can create moves that reverse quickly; consider using limit orders and sizing positions appropriately if you’re trading short term. [26]
- Track strategic optionality: The crypto-trading exploration is early-stage, but it signals continued competitive positioning in markets and infrastructure. [27]
Bottom line for JPMorgan (JPM) stock heading into year-end
JPMorgan stock is ending 2025 with strong momentum and a supportive market tape, helped by a year-end rally dynamic and renewed confidence in capital markets activity. But with the stock near record territory, investors are increasingly focused on what comes next: expense discipline, rate-path clarity, and January earnings.
For the next trading session, the most important setup is simple: year-end liquidity can amplify moves, and JPM—given its size—can react sharply to shifts in Fed expectations and sector rotation. [28]
References
1. www.investors.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.jpmorganchase.com, 14. www.jpmorganchase.com, 15. www.jpmorganchase.com, 16. www.marketwatch.com, 17. www.tipranks.com, 18. www.investing.com, 19. www.nyse.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.marketwatch.com, 23. www.jpmorganchase.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com
