JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Stock on December 10, 2025: Expense Shock, Dividend Update and Wall Street Forecasts

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) is back in the spotlight this week after a rare, sharp sell‑off triggered by new guidance on 2026 spending. At the same time, the bank has reaffirmed its hefty dividend and continues to draw mostly bullish long‑term forecasts from Wall Street.

This article pulls together the key news, forecasts and analysis on JPM stock as of December 10, 2025, to help you understand what just happened, why the market is jumpy about expenses, and how analysts still think the story plays out.

JPMorgan Chase stock today: price and recent performance

As of late morning on December 10, 2025, JPMorgan Chase shares trade around $300.5 per share, giving the bank a market cap north of $800 billion. ^[1]

That level would be unremarkable on its own, but the path back to ~$300 is what matters:

• On Tuesday, December 9, JPM stock fell about 4.5–4.7%, its biggest one‑day drop in roughly eight months, after management surprised investors with a more aggressive expense outlook for 2026. ^[2]
• The sell‑off followed months in which JPM had traded near record highs, buoyed by strong 2025 earnings and a “fortress balance sheet” narrative.

In other words: the business is still performing very well, but the market was reminded – loudly – that big banks can still spook investors with guidance tweaks.

What triggered the sell‑off: the 2026 expense shock

The main story of the week is not some hidden loss or credit blow‑up. It’s costs.

At the Goldman Sachs U.S. Financial Services Conference in New York, Marianne Lake, head of JPMorgan’s Consumer & Community Banking division, laid out fresh expense guidance:

• 2026 firmwide expenses are expected to reach about $105 billion, driven mostly by growth and volume‑related costs, plus “strategic investments.” ^[3]
• That figure sits well above the Wall Street consensus for next year’s expenses, which Reuters pegs around $100.8 billion. ^[4]

Wall Street hates surprises, and “+ several billion of extra spending” is exactly that kind of surprise.

Lake highlighted that:

• The consumer and community banking unit will account for a big chunk of the expense growth.
• Spending is being driven by technology (including AI), marketing, branch expansion, and card growth, along with good old‑fashioned inflation. ^[5]

On the revenue side, she tried to sweeten the pill:

• Q4 2025 investment‑banking revenue is expected to be up low single‑digit percentages year‑on‑year.
• Markets revenue is expected to rise in the low‑teens percentages in Q4, suggesting trading and markets businesses are humming. ^[6]

But the headline the market latched onto was simple:

Costs are going up faster than previously expected.

That’s why JPM was the worst performer among large U.S. banks on Tuesday.

Fresh dividend update: $1.50 per share and a ~2% yield

While expenses grabbed all the attention, JPMorgan quietly did something income‑investors care a lot about: it reaffirmed its sizable dividend.

On December 9, the Board declared a quarterly dividend of $1.50 per share on common stock: ^[7]

• Payable: January 31, 2026
• Record date: January 6, 2026

At today’s roughly $300.5 share price, that works out to an annualized $6.00 per share and a dividend yield of about 2.0% (yields move with the share price). ^[8]

JPMorgan has paid dividends for decades and, according to the Q3 earnings commentary, has maintained dividend payments for 55 consecutive years, reinforcing its status as a blue‑chip income name. ^[9]

So while the expense guidance hit the stock price in the short term, the capital‑return story is very much intact.

Earnings backdrop: Q3 2025 was very strong

The expense shock is landing on top of what was, frankly, a very good earnings year.

In Q3 2025, JPMorgan:

• Reported earnings per share (EPS) of $5.07, beating the consensus estimate of about $4.84.
• Delivered revenue around the mid‑$40 billion range, ahead of forecasts and up roughly 9% year‑on‑year. ^[10]
• Generated net income of $14.4 billion in the quarter. ^[11]
• Saw firmwide expenses of about $24.3 billion, up 8% year‑on‑year, reflecting higher compensation, marketing and technology investment. ^[12]
• Recorded credit costs of $3.4 billion and a CET1 capital ratio of 14.8%, implying very strong capital levels even with higher risk‑weighted assets. ^[13]

The Q3 earnings call also emphasized:

• Continued investment in AI and new product launches,
• Solid performance across markets, payments and asset management,
• A Q4 2025 outlook with net interest income (NII) of roughly $25 billion and adjusted expenses around $24.5 billion. ^[14]

Zooming into payments, J.P. Morgan Payments alone generated $4.9 billion of Q3 2025 revenue, up 13% year‑on‑year, helped by big client wins. ^[15]

The punchline: operationally and financially, JPMorgan is firing on most cylinders. The debate is whether the incremental spending will create enough future revenue to justify the present‑day margin squeeze.

Jamie Dimon’s macro view: inflation, Europe, AI and security

Part of why JPMorgan is such a “macro stock” is that CEO Jamie Dimon is essentially a rolling macro commentary machine. His recent remarks matter for how investors frame JPM’s risk/reward.

Inflation and the U.S. consumer

In a recent interview highlighted by The National Desk, Dimon described the U.S. economy as broadly strong, but flagged inflation as the main weak spot. ^[16]

Key themes from that discussion:

• Consumers and businesses are still generally healthy, and major stock indices remain elevated.
• Labor markets show early signs of softening, but not a collapse.
• Consumer credit metrics like delinquencies and charge‑offs have normalized rather than deteriorated sharply. ^[17]

For a bank like JPM, that combination – sturdy consumers + moderate inflation + gentle job‑market cooling – is pretty much the “Goldilocks, but watch the door” scenario.

Europe as a risk factor

At the Reagan National Defense Forum, Dimon also launched a pointed critique of Europe’s sluggish bureaucracy and declining competitiveness, arguing that a “weak Europe is bad for the U.S.” ^[18]

He noted that:

• Europe’s GDP has drifted down to about 65% of U.S. GDP, from around 90% a decade or so ago.
• Excess regulation, under‑investment and political fragmentation, in his view, threaten growth and the transatlantic alliance. ^[19]

For JPM shareholders, this matters because the bank has large operations in Europe. Slow growth and heavier regulation there could cap returns in that region, even if U.S. businesses thrive.

AI and jobs

Dimon is also very vocal on artificial intelligence. In recent remarks covered by outlets including Yahoo Finance and the Economic Times, he has argued that: ^[20]

• AI will eliminate some jobs and dramatically change others.
• Workers will need to develop adaptable, higher‑order skills to stay relevant.
• Both governments and companies should work on phasing in AI and supporting displaced workers, and he has called for thoughtful AI regulation.

That dovetails with JPM’s own strategy: spending heavily on AI and technology (part of the expense debate) while positioning itself as a long‑term winner from automation rather than a victim of it.

National security and “hard power” spending

On Fox Business, Dimon has also argued the U.S. needs to boost national‑security investment to protect the economy, emphasizing spending on critical industries and resilience. ^[21]

For investors, that’s another way of saying: the geopolitical backdrop is not calm, and banks need to be prepared for volatility in rates, credit and capital markets.

Wall Street’s view: mostly “Buy”, with mid‑single‑digit upside

Analysts have been updating their JPM models in real time as the expense story lands. The broad picture as of December 10, 2025:

Consensus ratings

Different aggregators slice the data slightly differently:

• MarketBeat shows a consensus rating of “Hold” from 27 analysts, with 15 Buy, 9 Hold and 3 Sell ratings. ^[22]
• StockAnalysis.com tracks 13 analysts with an average rating of “Buy”. ^[23]
• ValueInvesting.io counts 30 analysts and sees the consensus as “BUY”, with a distribution of 1 strong sell, 1 sell, 9 hold, 15 buy and 4 strong buy ratings. ^[24]

So, beneath the slightly different labels, the pattern is:

A few skeptics, a decent chunk of neutrals, but a plurality of analysts still recommend owning JPM.

Price targets

Across major sources, 12‑month price targets cluster not that far above where the stock trades today:

• MarketBeat:
  • Average target:$325.48 (about 8.4% upside from ~$300.23).
  • Range:$235 low to $370 high. ^[25]
• StockAnalysis.com:
  • Average target:$326.08 (about 8.5% upside).
  • Range:$285–$350. ^[26]
• MarketWatch (snapshot from Dec 9):
  • Average target: roughly $332.41,
  • Median:$342,
  • Range:$250–$370. ^[27]
• ValueInvesting.io:
  • Average target:$331.37, pointing to about 5.1% upside.
  • Range:$252.50–$388.50. ^[28]

Taken together, Wall Street is not calling for a moonshot here. Analysts see mid‑single‑digit to high‑single‑digit upside plus the ~2% dividend yield, which adds up to a fairly normal large‑cap bank return profile.

Morgan Stanley’s downgrade in disguise

One especially relevant note this week comes from Morgan Stanley, which:

• Cut its JPM price target from $338 to $331 while maintaining an Equal‑weight rating.
• Lowered its 2026 and 2027 EPS estimates by 3% and 2%, respectively, citing higher‑than‑expected expenses that only partly get offset by stronger markets revenue.
• Updated its model to incorporate JPM’s 2026 expense guidance of $105 billion, vs. its previous $102 billion assumption.
• Slightly raised its Q4 2025 EPS estimate to $5.11 on better expected markets revenue. ^[29]

That neatly captures the current mood:

The long‑term franchise is still attractive, but higher structural costs shave a bit off the valuation math.

Big money moves: how institutions are repositioning in JPM

While retail investors stare at the daily price chart, big institutions quietly shuffle hundreds of millions around. Recent 13F‑based reports show a mix of trimming and accumulation:

• The California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS) trimmed its JPM position by 6.8% in Q2, ending the period with about 5.53 million shares, worth roughly $1.6 billion and representing 0.20% of JPM’s shares. ^[30]
• Marshall Investment Management LLC cut its stake by 90% in the same quarter, down to 1,441 shares, valued around $418,000, though JPM still accounts for about 2% of its portfolio. ^[31]
• On the flip side, Natixis increased its JPM holdings by 34.9%, buying just over 300,000 shares to reach about 1.18 million shares, worth roughly $341 million and making JPM its 9th‑largest position. ^[32]

So there’s no uniform “smart money is fleeing” story here. Some large investors are taking profits or rebalancing, while others are leaning into the franchise after strong earnings and the pullback.

Analyst forecasts for JPMorgan’s growth: steady, not explosive

Beyond the 12‑month price targets, analysts also publish fundamental forecasts for revenue and earnings:

• Consensus projections compiled by StockAnalysis and ValueInvesting suggest: ^[33]
  • 2025 revenue: around $185–186 billion, up low‑double‑digits year‑on‑year.
  • 2026 revenue: around $192 billion, implying low‑single‑digit growth after the post‑rate‑hike boom.
  • 2025 EPS: roughly $20.4–20.7,
  • 2026 EPS: around $21.3–21.6, implying mid‑single‑digit earnings growth per share.

Relative to the expense guidance, this paints a picture of:

• A very large, very profitable bank
• Growing at a modest but solid clip,
• While plowing billions into technology, AI and growth initiatives that are expected (but not guaranteed) to pay off down the road.

Key opportunities for JPM stock after the December 10 news

Putting the puzzle pieces together, here’s the bullish side of the ledger:

1. Scale and diversification
   JPMorgan is the quintessential “all‑weather” bank: leading share in U.S. retail deposits, top‑tier investment bank, huge payments and transaction‑banking franchise, and a vast asset‑/wealth‑management arm. That diversification has underpinned its $14.4 billion Q3 net income and high returns on equity. ^[34]
2. Capital strength and dividends
   A CET1 ratio near 15%, a $1.50 quarterly dividend, and decades of uninterrupted payouts give management plenty of room to handle shocks while still rewarding shareholders. ^[35]
3. AI and tech investment as a growth engine
   The same investments that are pushing expenses higher – AI, data centers, tech talent, product innovation – are designed to:
   • automate back‑office work,
   • improve risk management,
   • enhance customer experience, and
   • open up new revenue lines. ^[36]
   If execution is strong, today’s cost spike could translate into better efficiency and higher revenue per employee a few years out.
4. Macro tailwinds (for now)
   Dimon’s view that consumers and businesses remain resilient, even with sticky inflation, supports ongoing credit demand and relatively benign credit costs – exactly what a big bank wants to see. ^[37]
5. Reasonable valuation vs. history and peers
   With the stock near $300 and consensus EPS in the low‑20s, JPM trades at a forward P/E in the mid‑teens, roughly in line with its own recent history but still arguably modest for a franchise with this profitability, moat and balance sheet.

Key risks investors are focused on

And the bearish or cautionary side:

1. Expense discipline vs. “trust me” spending The market’s main gripe this week is simple: How many years in a row will expenses come in “a bit higher than we thought”? JPM is asking investors to trust that $105 billion of 2026 spending will generate future revenue and efficiency that more than offsets the margin hit. Until investors see hard evidence of slower expense growth or faster revenue growth, some will stay skeptical. ^[38]
2. Regulatory and political risk From capital rules (“Basel endgame”) to AI governance and consumer‑protection debates, large systemic banks like JPM sit in the regulatory spotlight. Dimon’s own high‑profile commentary on Europe, AI and security ensures the firm remains part of the policy conversation – which can be a blessing and a headache. ^[39]
3. Macro downside scenarios Dimon himself keeps reminding people that things could get worse – whether from geopolitics, a bond‑market accident, or a sharper downturn. In a hard landing scenario, even JPM’s fortress balance sheet would face:
   • higher credit losses,
   • pressure on fee businesses, and
   • potentially tougher capital demands.
4. European and international growth constraints JPM has global ambitions, but Dimon’s critique of Europe’s economic trajectory is basically a warning label for international earnings: structurally weaker growth and heavier regulation abroad may keep returns below U.S. levels for years. ^[40]

What the December 10 news means for JPMorgan shareholders

Here’s the distilled version of where things stand today, December 10, 2025:

• JPMorgan has just reminded the market that it is willing to spend aggressively – especially on tech, AI and growth in consumer banking.
• That spending pushes 2026 expenses to about $105 billion, a few billion above what analysts expected, and it knocked nearly 5% off the share price in a day. ^[41]
• At the same time, the bank:
  • continues to post very strong earnings and revenue beats,
  • maintains a solid ~2% dividend yield,
  • sits on very strong capital, and
  • still enjoys a largely positive analyst consensus with modest upside baked into price targets. ^[42]

In short, December 10 isn’t a “something is broken” moment for JPMorgan. It’s a reminder that even the biggest, most profitable banks are ultimately judged on a very human question:

Are management’s expensive bets on the future actually worth it?

For now, most of Wall Street seems to be answering:

Yes – but we’d like them a bit cheaper.

References

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