JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Stock on December 5, 2025: New $354 Price Target, Earnings Beat and 2026 Outlook Explained

Date: December 5, 2025 – All figures as of mid‑day U.S. trading unless otherwise noted. This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.

JPMorgan Chase stock price today: near record highs

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) is trading around $317 per share in Friday’s session, up slightly on the day and hovering close to all‑time highs. Real‑time feeds show an intraday range roughly between $315 and $318, with the latest trade near $317.30 as of about 15:21 UTC. ^[1]

Key near‑term stats:

Previous close (Dec 4, 2025): $316.10 ^[2]
Current price (intraday, Dec 5): ~$317–317.5
52‑week range: about $202.16 (low) to $322.25 (high) ^[3]
Year‑to‑date performance: started 2025 around $239.71 and is now near $316, a gain of roughly 32%. ^[4]

On recent metrics from MarketBeat, JPMorgan trades on a P/E of ~15.6–15.7, with a P/E/G ratio around 1.6, a beta just over 1.0 and a market capitalization in the mid‑$800 billion range. ^[5]

At the current share price and the new $1.50 quarterly dividend ($6.00 annualized), the forward dividend yield is just under 2%. ^[6]

What’s new on December 5, 2025?

1. Goldman Sachs adjusts JPMorgan price target to $354

The biggest fresh headline for JPM stock today is a new research note from The Goldman Sachs Group:

Goldman trims its 12‑month price target from $355 to $354 per share.
The firm reiterates a “buy” rating, and the slightly lower target still implies around 11–12% upside from the current share price. ^[7]

Goldman’s call lands on top of a string of recent target hikes from other Wall Street banks:

Morgan Stanley: target lifted to $338, rating “equal weight”. ^[8]
TD Cowen: target raised up to $370, rating “buy”. ^[9]
Wells Fargo: target increased to $350 with an “overweight” rating in a late‑November note. ^[10]
Barclays: target moved to $342, rating “overweight”. ^[11]
UBS and Keefe, Bruyette & Woods have separately pushed targets into the $350–354 area following stronger lending growth and resilient earnings. ^[12]

According to the latest MarketBeat data, around 15 analysts rate JPM as a Buy, nine as Hold and three as Sell, with a consensus rating classified as “Hold” and an average price target roughly in the mid‑$320s (about $325–326 per share). ^[13]

In other words, today’s Goldman tweak doesn’t change the big picture: Wall Street’s official stance is mildly positive but not euphoric, with most “overweight/buy” targets clustered in the $340–370 band, and a consensus suggesting modest single‑digit upside from here.

2. Institutional investors reshuffle positions

December 5 has also brought a wave of 13F‑related headlines showing how institutional holders repositioned around JPMorgan in Q2 and Q3:

Loomis Sayles & Co. L.P. increased its JPM stake by 12.2%, adding ~83,856 shares to reach 772,736 shares valued at about $224 million. ^[14]
MarketBeat data show institutional ownership around 71–72%, reinforcing JPM’s status as a core holding in many large‑cap portfolios. ^[15]
New filings today highlight a mixed picture, with some managers adding and others trimming:
- Giverny Capital boosted its position by roughly 14–15%. ^[16]
- West Family Investments significantly grew its stake, while
- Mackenzie Financial, New York State Common Retirement Fund, Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB publ, Railway Pension Investments, and Portland Investment Counsel all reported reductions of varying sizes. ^[17]

On the insider front, filings highlighted again that Robin Leopold, a senior JPMorgan executive, sold 966 shares at about $311.92 in early November, leaving her with 58,479 shares; insiders collectively hold roughly 0.47% of the stock. ^[18]

Taken together, today’s flow data underline that JPMorgan remains heavily owned and actively traded by institutions, with no single direction dominating—typical for a mega‑cap financial at record prices.

Fundamentals: Q3 2025 earnings beat and capital returns

The underlying driver of JPMorgan’s powerful rally in 2025 has been strong, broad‑based earnings.

In its third‑quarter 2025 results, released October 14: ^[19]

Net income: about $14.4 billion, up ~12% year on year.
Earnings per share (EPS):$5.07, beating Wall Street estimates around $4.83–4.84.
Managed revenue: roughly $47.1 billion, up about 9%; reported revenue around $46.4 billion, ahead of consensus near $45.4 billion.
Net interest income (NII): up ~2% to about $24.1 billion, reflecting higher rates and solid loan balances.
Non‑interest revenue: up mid‑teens (~16%) to around $23 billion, helped by markets and fee income.
Return on equity (ROE): about 17%, and return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) near 20%.
Capital strength: Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratios around 14.8–14.9%, well above regulatory minimums.

By business line, JPMorgan continues to show balanced growth: ^[20]

Consumer & Community Banking: net income up ~24%, driven by deposit margins, card spending and wealth management fees.
Corporate & Investment Bank: net income up ~21% with markets revenue up strongly (double‑digit gains in both fixed income and equities) and investment banking fees up mid‑teens.
Asset & Wealth Management: net income up low‑20s %, with AUM around $4.6 trillion and total client assets close to $6.8 trillion.

JPMorgan also returned about $12.1 billion to shareholders in Q3 alone, split between: ^[21]

$4.1 billion in common dividends (around $1.50 per share), and
$8.0 billion in share repurchases.

The bank guided for 2025 net interest income ex‑Markets around $92.2 billion, and total NII near $95.8 billion, with adjusted non‑interest expense around $95.9 billion and card net charge‑offs around 3.3% for the year. ^[22]

For shareholders, that combination—double‑digit ROE, hefty cash returns and still‑robust capital ratios—is central to the bull case.

Dividend, buybacks and the ‘fortress balance sheet’

On July 1, 2025, JPMorgan announced a major update to its capital return plans after the Federal Reserve’s 2025 stress tests: ^[23]

The Board intends to increase the quarterly common dividend to $1.50 per share (from $1.40), starting with the third quarter of 2025.
The firm authorized a new $50 billion common share repurchase program, effective July 1, 2025.
Under the revised Stress Capital Buffer (SCB) framework, the Fed provided a preliminary SCB of 2.5% (down from 3.3%), and the bank’s standardized CET1 requirement fell to 11.5% from 12.3%.

Chair and CEO Jamie Dimon described the moves as a “sustainable” level of capital distribution, emphasizing the firm’s “fortress balance sheet”, with significant excess capital and liquidity and the ability to support clients “in both good times and bad times.” ^[24]

Because stress‑test capital requirements came down and new regulatory guidance is trending toward less volatility in capital buffers, JPMorgan has more room to fund growth, dividends and buybacks—a theme reinforced by J.P. Morgan Private Bank’s research on bank deregulation. ^[25]

Macro backdrop: resilient, but a “heightened degree of uncertainty”

Jamie Dimon has spent much of 2025 walking a line between cautious and constructive on the macro outlook.

In the Q3 release, he said the U.S. economy “remained resilient” but faces a “heightened degree of uncertainty” driven by complex geopolitics, tariff and trade policy, elevated asset prices and the risk of stubborn inflation. ^[26]
Earlier in 2025, he warned that inflation could rise and employment weaken as “tectonic plates” in the global economy shift, underscoring his view that the current cycle is unusually unpredictable. ^[27]

J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s “2026 Year‑Ahead Investment Outlook” sketches a similar base case: ^[28]

U.S. real GDP slows to about 1% annualized in late 2025, then re‑accelerates above 3% in the first half of 2026 before easing back toward 1–2%.
Unemployment is expected to peak near 4.5% in late 2025/early 2026, then edge down.
Inflation may tick up into mid‑2026 but is projected to fall back toward 2% by the end of 2026.

Separately, house strategists at JPMorgan see the S&P 500 potentially reaching around 7,500 in 2026, or even above 8,000 if the Federal Reserve’s rate‑cut path remains supportive. ^[29]

J.P. Morgan’s 2026 Long‑Term Capital Market Assumptions highlight an environment of moderate but positive expected returns across asset classes, with AI investment, shifting trade patterns, and evolving monetary policy as key drivers. ^[30]

For JPMorgan stock, that macro backdrop points to:

Tailwinds from stable (or gently falling) rates, solid credit quality, and ongoing capital markets activity.
Risks from any sharper‑than‑expected slowdown, resurgent inflation, or geopolitical shock that hits confidence, credit or trading volumes.

Regulation: capital rules turning from headwind to tailwind?

A major structural theme for JPMorgan and its peers is capital regulation.

A J.P. Morgan Private Bank note, “Get Ready: Bank Deregulation Now Has Washington’s Support,” argues that: ^[31]

The top 13 U.S. banks collectively hold about $200 billion of CET1 capital above regulatory minimums.
After the March 2023 regional‑bank turmoil, draft Basel “Endgame” rules implied much higher capital requirements, prompting big banks to build capital pre‑emptively.
Since late 2024, policymakers—including Fed officials—have signaled that the final rules will likely be less onerous, potentially even capital‑neutral, with clarity expected in early 2026.

The piece, as well as broader industry commentary, suggests that:

Lower or more stable capital requirements could allow banks like JPMorgan to deploy more capital into loan growth, M&A and share buybacks, and
Changes to the G‑SIB surcharge and related buffers might further reduce binding constraints on balance sheets. ^[32]

All of this reinforces the bank’s narrative: with a “fortress” capital position and excess CET1, JPMorgan is poised to keep rewarding shareholders—provided the regulatory pendulum really does swing toward stability or modest easing rather than another surprise tightening.

Short‑term technical picture: bullish bias, stretched valuations

Several technical and quantitative services flag constructive near‑term signals for JPM stock, while also noting that it’s richly valued versus its own history.

From StockInvest.us as of the December 4 close: ^[33]

Closing price: $316.10.
Expected fair open today (Dec 5): around $315.47.
Projected intraday range: approximately $312.86–$319.34, implying a potential swing of +/- ~2.1%.
Key technical levels:
- Fibonacci resistance near $318–322,
- First support from accumulated volume around $315–315.5, deeper support in the low $300s.
The site labels JPM as a short‑term “buy candidate”, citing positive trend signals.

Another technical aggregation from CoinCodex shows a 100% “bullish” technical sentiment on December 5, with 26 tracked indicators flashing bullish and none bearish. Short‑term moving averages (simple and exponential) from daily to weekly timeframes all sit below the current price, reinforcing the idea of an established uptrend. ^[34]

At the same time, JPMorgan’s rally of ~30+% year‑to‑date, combined with a mid‑teens P/E and earnings that already reflect higher rates and strong fee income, leaves less obvious “cheapness” in the stock. ^[35]

In short: technicals remain supportive, but valuation cushions are thinner than they were earlier in the cycle.

Longer‑term JPMorgan stock forecasts: from Wall Street to algorithms

Wall Street consensus

Pulling together the major brokerage calls:

Average 12‑month target: roughly $325–326 per share, implying low‑ to mid‑single‑digit upside from current levels. ^[36]
Price‑target range:
- Lower end around $250–320 among more cautious analysts. ^[37]
- Upper end in the $354–370 area (Goldman, TD Cowen, KBW, UBS, Wells Fargo and others). ^[38]
Ratings mix: about 15 Buy, nine Hold and three Sell ratings, for an overall “Hold” label despite the strong fundamentals. ^[39]

Quant/algorithmic price predictions (use with care)

Several online tools publish model‑driven forecasts. These are not the same as fundamental analyst research and can be very unstable, but they give a sense of how quantitative models see the risk/reward:

Yahoo Finance fair‑value estimate: A recent community‑driven valuation tool pegs JPM’s “fair value” around $328 per share, implying roughly 4% upside from current levels. ^[40]
CoinCodex (quant model):
- Forecasts slightly lower prices over the next year, with a 12‑month estimate around $272 (roughly ‑14% versus today).
- Yet projects the stock could reach $598 by 2030, and even imagines paths to $500 in 2028 and $1,000 in the mid‑2030s, under optimistic assumptions. ^[41]
CoinPriceForecast:
- Provides multiple scenario paths; recent snapshots show end‑2025 targets ranging roughly from the low‑$300s to the high‑$300s, with 2026 “end‑of‑year” scenario prices running from the low‑$320s to the low‑$400s, depending on which update you look at. ^[42]

Short‑term trading services like StockInvest lean bullish today, classifying JPM as a near‑term buy candidate based on momentum and support/resistance structure. ^[43]

All of these tools have the same caveat: they are not guarantees. They rest on historical patterns, technical indicators and simplified assumptions. A change in earnings, regulation, GDP growth or Fed policy can invalidate any model in a hurry.

Key risks for JPMorgan stock investors

Even with strong recent performance, JPMorgan is not risk‑free. Key issues to watch:

Economic slowdown or recession
- JPMorgan’s own economists see growth slowing and inflation staying somewhat elevated before eventually normalizing. A sharper downturn than their base case (e.g., a shock to AI spending or tariffs hitting consumers harder than expected) would pressure loan growth, credit quality and trading revenue. ^[44]
Interest‑rate path and margin pressure
- Net interest income has benefited from higher rates, but rapid Fed cuts could compress margins, while a surprise re‑acceleration in inflation might push rates back up and dent credit demand or asset prices.
Credit and card losses
- The bank currently guides to a card net charge‑off rate around 3.3%, which is manageable. A jump in unemployment or household stress could push losses higher and increase provisions. ^[45]
Regulatory and political shocks
- While the trend now points towards deregulation and possibly lower capital requirements, a major bank failure, political backlash, or a shift in the regulatory regime could reverse course and demand more capital instead of less. ^[46]
Market and trading volatility
- Strong markets and risk appetite have boosted JPMorgan’s investment‑banking and trading results. A sustained downturn, renewed volatility, or a drought in dealmaking would weigh on non‑interest income.
Valuation risk
- After a ~30+% run this year and a P/E in the mid‑teens, JPM is no longer obviously cheap. Any disappointment in upcoming quarters could trigger sharper pullbacks than investors have gotten used to. ^[47]

What to watch next

For traders and long‑term investors following JPMorgan Chase stock, the next catalysts include:

Q4 2025 earnings and full‑year guidance updates on NII, expense levels and credit quality. ^[48]
The Federal Reserve’s policy path and any signals on the pace and depth of rate cuts. ^[49]
Regulatory clarity on Basel III “Endgame,” G‑SIB surcharges and SCB methodology, likely into early 2026. ^[50]
Loan‑growth trends and capital‑markets revenue, especially if AI‑led capex and dealmaking remain strong—or cool abruptly. ^[51]

Bottom line

As of December 5, 2025, JPMorgan Chase stock is trading near record highs, backed by:

Robust Q3 earnings and double‑digit ROE,
A richer dividend and massive $50 billion buyback authorization,
Excess capital and potential regulatory tailwinds, and
A macro backdrop that JPMorgan itself describes as resilient but uncertain.

Wall Street’s official targets generally point to moderate upside, while short‑term technicals are solidly bullish. At the same time, valuations are no longer bargain‑level, and the stock is highly sensitive to the cycle, interest rates and regulation.

For anyone considering JPM, it’s worth treating today’s price as a bet on the durability of U.S. growth, the banking deregulation trend and JPMorgan’s ability to keep compounding earnings—while recognizing that a bumpier economy or rulebook could quickly change the narrative.

Disclaimer: This article is for general information only and does not constitute financial, legal or tax advice. Always do your own research and consider speaking with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.