JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Stock Slides on $105 Billion Expense Warning: What to Know After the Bell on December 9, 2025 and Before the Market Opens December 10

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) shook U.S. markets on Tuesday, December 9, 2025, after management told investors to expect significantly higher expenses in 2026 and flagged a “more fragile” consumer backdrop.

The stock closed at $300.51, down about 4.7% on the day, making it the worst performer in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and one of the biggest drags on the index ahead of Wednesday’s pivotal Federal Reserve rate decision. ^[1]

After the bell, the selling pressure eased slightly, with JPM trading around $300.28 in after-hours, only marginally below the regular close, but still well below Monday’s $315.21 finish. ^[2]

Below is a complete rundown of what moved JPMorgan’s stock on December 9, 2025, what Wall Street is saying now, and the key things investors should watch when markets reopen on Wednesday, December 10, 2025.

1. How JPMorgan Traded on December 9: Worst Performer in the Dow

Price action

• Previous close (Dec 8, 2025): $315.21
• Open (Dec 9): $314.95
• Intraday high: $318.80
• Intraday low: $300.02
• Close: $300.51 (‑4.66%)
• After-hours (approx. 4:30–5:00 p.m. ET): around $300.28 (‑0.08% vs. close)
• Volume: ~17.8 million shares, well above typical daily turnover. ^[3]

Dow Jones data and multiple market summaries highlighted JPMorgan as the single biggest laggard in the DJIA, noting that the bank’s slide was responsible for a sizeable portion of the index’s decline. ^[4]

In a broader market wrap, Investopedia reported that the Dow fell about 0.4% and the S&P 500 edged down 0.1%, while the Nasdaq eked out a 0.1% gain, on a day when traders were otherwise largely focused on Wednesday’s Fed decision. JPMorgan’s 4.7% drop was specifically cited as a key weight on the Dow. ^[5]

Takeaway: The sell-off in JPM wasn’t just a stock-specific move—it visibly pulled down the Dow on a day when broader market moves were relatively modest.

2. The Catalyst: A $105 Billion Expense Forecast and a “More Fragile” Consumer

The main trigger for Tuesday’s sell-off was guidance from Marianne Lake, JPMorgan’s CEO of Consumer & Community Banking, speaking at the Goldman Sachs U.S. Financial Services Conference in New York.

Higher 2026 expense guidance

According to Reuters and other outlets, Lake said JPMorgan now expects 2026 expenses of about $105 billion, driven largely by growth- and volume-related costs and strategic investments, particularly in the consumer and community banking unit. ^[6]

Key points from her comments:

• Projected 2026 expenses: ~$105 billion
• That figure:
  • Exceeds the Street’s current consensus of roughly $100.8 billion. ^[7]
  • Sits above even the highest prior analyst estimate in some surveys. ^[8]
• Lake emphasized that:
  • Growth and volume are the biggest drivers of cost increases.
  • Strategic investments, many in consumer-facing businesses, are also significant contributors. ^[9]

Investing.com and other market commentary framed this as a “higher-for-longer” cost story: JPMorgan is choosing to spend aggressively into 2026 on technology, customer acquisition, and scale—even as investors had been hoping for some expense moderation. ^[10]

A more cautious tone on the consumer

Lake also struck a more cautious tone on consumer health. At the same conference, she said she would “characterize the environment as being a little bit more fragile,” a remark widely circulated in market coverage. ^[11]

Additional details from her remarks and related coverage:

• JPMorgan sees credit card charge-offs at about 3.3% in 2025, implying some normalization of credit losses from unusually low post-pandemic levels. ^[12]
• While the consumer is still spending, the tone suggests:
  • Pressure on lower-income and more leveraged households.
  • A less benign credit environment than in the recent past. ^[13]

Offsetting positives: stronger markets and fee income

The guidance wasn’t all negative. Lake and JPMorgan also flagged several positives:

• Q4 2025 investment banking revenue is expected to rise by low-single-digit percentages year-over-year.
• Markets revenue (trading and related activities) is expected to increase by low-teens percentages in the fourth quarter versus the same quarter last year. ^[14]
• JPMorgan still plans to add around 10.5 million credit card accounts in 2025, underscoring its growth ambitions in consumer banking. ^[15]

Why the stock reacted so negatively:

For investors, the core issue is that higher structural expenses compress future profitability if revenue doesn’t rise at least as quickly. Even with solid trading and IB numbers, the market chose to focus on the $105 billion expense figure and Lake’s “more fragile” consumer comment, leading to aggressive selling in JPM and mild pressure on peers like Citigroup and Bank of America. ^[16]

3. Wall Street’s Immediate Reaction: Price Targets Trimmed, But Still a “Buy”

Morgan Stanley cuts target, keeps Equal-Weight

A fresh report from Morgan Stanley on Tuesday lowered its price target for JPMorgan from $338 to $331, while maintaining an Equal-weight rating. ^[17]

Highlights from that note:

• New price target:$331 (down from $338).
• JPMorgan is still viewed as undervalued relative to some fair value estimates, with the stock trading near $300–302 when the note was published. ^[18]
• The analyst team:
  • Cut 2026 EPS estimates by 3% and 2027 EPS by 2%, explicitly citing higher expense expectations.
  • Still assumes a 14× forward P/E multiple, reflecting JPM’s status as a high-quality, systemically important franchise. ^[19]

In other words: Morgan Stanley isn’t turning bearish on JPMorgan—it’s recalibrating earnings and valuation for a costlier growth path.

Consensus still sees upside

Aggregate data from StockAnalysis, which compiles multiple analyst forecasts, shows: ^[20]

• Average 12‑month price target:$326.08, implying about 8.5% upside from Tuesday’s close.
• Analyst consensus rating:“Buy.”
• Trailing EPS (TTM): about $20.18, putting JPM at roughly 14.9× trailing earnings after the sell-off.

The market is now grappling with a familiar trade-off:

Is JPMorgan’s elevated spending an overreach that pressures margins, or a rational long-term investment that will widen its competitive moat in technology, AI, risk systems, and consumer banking?

For now, the near-term answer from traders is “show me”: the stock repriced lower to reflect that uncertainty.

4. Dividends, Capital Returns and Strategic Moves

Dividend: steady income amid volatility

Despite the expense news, JPMorgan also delivered a more reassuring headline:

The bank declared a regular quarterly dividend on its common stock on December 9, 2025, according to a Business Wire release carried via StockTitan. The specific per-share amount is available on the bank’s investor relations site, but current data show an annual dividend of about $6.00 per share, which equates to roughly a 2.0% dividend yield at Tuesday’s closing price. ^[21]

The dividend announcement reinforces several points:

• JPMorgan continues to return substantial capital to shareholders.
• Management is signaling confidence in the bank’s earnings power and balance sheet, even as it commits to higher future spending.

For income-focused investors, the combination of a blue-chip bank franchise and a 2%+ yield may be attractive if they believe earnings will absorb the cost growth over time.

Todd Combs and the Security & Resiliency Initiative

Although not a December 9 headline, investors are still digesting a major strategic move announced on December 8:

• JPMorgan hired Todd Combs, a long‑time Berkshire Hathaway investment manager and CEO of GEICO, to lead a $10 billion Strategic Investment Group as part of a new Security and Resiliency Initiative focused on sectors like defense, aerospace, health care, and energy. ^[22]

This initiative—and the scale of capital involved—underscores:

• JPMorgan’s push into national-security‑linked investments.
• Its intent to be at the center of infrastructure, resilience, and AI‑related capital formation over the coming decade.

Taken together with the higher expense guidance, this move suggests JPMorgan is leaning into large, long-duration strategic bets rather than dialing back.

Alternatives and private markets: J.P. Morgan’s 2026 Global Alternatives Outlook

On December 9, J.P. Morgan Asset Management released its 2026 Global Alternatives Outlook, highlighting opportunities in private markets at a time when AI investment and structural shifts in the global economy are accelerating. ^[23]

The report emphasizes:

• Opportunities across real estate, infrastructure, transportation, timberland, hedge funds, private equity, and private credit.
• A view that private markets will play an increasingly important role as portfolio diversifiers, particularly as the correlation between stocks and bonds trends higher. ^[24]

While this report doesn’t directly change JPM’s near-term earnings, it reinforces the bank’s positioning as:

• A major player in private markets, with a broad alternatives platform.
• A beneficiary if institutional and high-net-worth investors continue shifting capital into private strategies over the next 12–18 months.

5. Macro Backdrop: Fed Decision Looms Over Bank Stocks

Tuesday’s JPMorgan sell-off didn’t happen in a vacuum. The broader market is focused on the Federal Reserve’s rate decision scheduled for Wednesday, December 10, 2025.

According to an Investopedia market wrap: ^[25]

• Markets are pricing in an ~87% probability that the Fed will cut its policy rate by 25 basis points, to a 3.5%–3.75% range.
• Treasury yields drifted higher following a stronger‑than‑expected JOLTS job openings report, with the 10‑year U.S. Treasury yield near 4.19%.
• Bitcoin, gold, and other risk assets were also active as traders position for a potential policy shift.

For large banks like JPMorgan, Fed policy is a double-edged sword:

• Lower rates can:
  • Pressure net interest margins (NIM) over time.
  • Boost loan demand, reduce funding stress, and support credit quality.
• The shape of the yield curve, not just the level of rates, will help determine how profitable core lending remains in 2026–2027.

With the Fed decision just hours away, some of Tuesday’s JPMorgan selling likely reflects position-squaring and risk management: investors trimming exposure to a major financial stock that just delivered a negative cost surprise on the eve of a big macro catalyst.

6. Key Things to Watch Before the Market Opens on December 10, 2025

Here are the most important factors investors should monitor heading into Wednesday’s session:

1. Follow‑through selling—or stabilization—in JPM pre‑market

• Does JPMorgan extend Tuesday’s decline in pre‑market trading?
  • Aggressive follow‑through selling would signal that institutional investors are still re‑positioning portfolios.
  • A flat or modestly higher pre‑market quote would suggest that much of the “expense shock” has been quickly priced in.

2. Fresh analyst notes and revisions

Expect more Wall Street research over the next 12–48 hours:

• Look for:
  • Additional price target cuts or EPS revisions for 2026–2027.
  • Commentary on expense discipline versus growth investments.
• So far, Morgan Stanley’s move to a $331 target (Equal-weight) with only modest EPS cuts suggests tactical, not structural, downgrading of the story. ^[26]

If other major banks (e.g., Bank of America, Citi, Goldman Sachs) keep their ratings intact but trim numbers slightly, the market may view Tuesday’s move as a one-day reset rather than the start of a prolonged derating.

3. Fed decision and press conference

The tone of the Fed on Wednesday could matter as much for JPMorgan as the actual rate move:

• A dovish cut (emphasizing growth support and manageable inflation) could:
  • Strengthen risk sentiment.
  • Help financials if markets price in a soft landing.
• A hawkish cut (or a cut paired with strong warnings about inflation persistence) could:
  • Keep yields elevated.
  • Raise medium-term credit risk for consumers and corporates—an area JPM already hinted is “a little more fragile.” ^[27]

For JPM specifically, pay attention to commentary on:

• Inflation expectations.
• Labor markets (which Jamie Dimon has flagged as a key driver of future consumer health). ^[28]

4. Bank sector sympathy moves

JPMorgan often acts as a bellwether for large U.S. banks. On Wednesday, watch:

• Citigroup, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs:
  • If they sell off in sympathy despite no new bad news, it suggests a broader “big banks are more expensive than we thought” narrative taking hold.
  • If they stabilize or recover, Tuesday’s JPM move may be seen as company-specific rather than a sector‑wide red flag. ^[29]

5. Investor focus on long-term strategy vs. short-term margin pressure

JPMorgan is clearly signaling that it will:

• Spend heavily on growth, technology, security, and resilience.
• Lean into private markets, alternatives, and national-security‑related investing through initiatives like the $10 billion strategic investment group and the 2026 Alternatives Outlook. ^[30]

Investors will increasingly ask:

• Does this spending widen JPMorgan’s competitive edge enough to justify higher costs?
• Or does it mark the beginning of a period where operating leverage is harder to achieve, pressuring returns on equity and valuation multiples?

7. What It All Means for JPMorgan Investors

Putting it together, here’s how Tuesday’s barrage of news looks from 30,000 feet:

1. Valuation has reset lower, but not catastrophically.
   • At around $300 per share and roughly 14–15× trailing earnings, JPM is not cheap in absolute terms, but the sell-off has pulled the forward P/E down from where it traded just days ago. ^[31]
2. The core franchise remains powerful.
   • JPMorgan continues to generate strong trading, investment banking, and consumer banking revenue, with Q4 guidance calling for growth in both IB fees and markets revenue. ^[32]
   • The bank is still returning capital via a stable dividend (~2% yield).
3. Near-term narrative risk has increased.
   • A $105 billion expense guide is a big number, and the Street will likely probe management on where discipline will come from, especially if revenue growth slows. ^[33]
4. Macro uncertainty is high.
   • With the Fed decision looming, inflation not fully tamed, and signs of fragility in the consumer and job markets, the environment is inherently volatile for big banks. ^[34]
5. The long-term bet is on JPMorgan’s ability to monetize its investments.
   • Initiatives highlighted in the 2026 Global Alternatives Outlook, the Security & Resiliency Initiative, and ongoing tech and AI spending are aimed at keeping JPMorgan at the center of global capital markets and private investing. ^[35]

Final note

This overview is informational only and does not constitute personalized investment advice. Whether JPMorgan is attractive at current levels depends on your:

• Time horizon
• Risk tolerance
• View on bank regulation, interest rates, and the health of the global economy

References

1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. www.morningstar.com, 5. www.investopedia.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.investing.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.investing.com, 11. www.investopedia.com, 12. www.investing.com, 13. www.investing.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.investing.com, 16. www.investing.com, 17. www.investing.com, 18. www.investing.com, 19. www.investing.com, 20. stockanalysis.com, 21. www.stocktitan.net, 22. www.investing.com, 23. www.prnewswire.com, 24. www.prnewswire.com, 25. www.investopedia.com, 26. www.investing.com, 27. www.investopedia.com, 28. cbs12.com, 29. www.investing.com, 30. www.prnewswire.com, 31. stockanalysis.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.investopedia.com, 35. www.prnewswire.com