Updated: Dec. 25, 2025 — JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) heads into the post‑Christmas session with its shares sitting at fresh highs after a holiday‑shortened Christmas Eve trade. But for investors looking at JPM stock before the opening bell on Friday, Dec. 26, 2025, the story is less about one headline — and more about a new set of 2026 expectations: costs, capital returns, digital‑asset strategy, and how fast Wall Street activity can re-accelerate.
Below is what matters most going into the next U.S. trading day.
1) Yes, the U.S. stock market is open on Dec. 26 — and it’s a full session
Even though the federal government is closed on Dec. 26 this year, major U.S. exchanges are sticking with their planned schedule: an early close on Dec. 24 and a regular, full trading day on Dec. 26. [1]
That mix (a shortened session followed by a normal one) can matter for a mega-cap like JPMorgan because:
- Liquidity is often thin around the holidays, so price moves can look “bigger than usual.”
- Some government-linked data releases may be delayed to the next business day because federal offices are closed. [2]
2) Where JPM stock stands heading into Friday: record close, new highs, and big 2025 gains
JPMorgan shares finished the last session (Dec. 24) at $329.17, a record closing high, after trading up to roughly $329.99 intraday. [3]
A few quick context points investors often check before the next open:
- 52-week range: roughly $202 to $330, highlighting how strongly the stock rebounded and advanced in 2025. [4]
- Market cap: roughly $900B (ballpark), placing JPMorgan among the most valuable financial companies globally. [5]
- Post‑Christmas seasonality: Dec. 26 has historically been one of the more consistently positive trading days for the S&P 500 — but seasonality isn’t a catalyst by itself. [6]
3) The headline that changed the near-term narrative: 2026 expense expectations jumped
If you’re trying to understand why JPM stock dipped earlier in December — and then quickly regained momentum — start with cost guidance.
At a major financial conference, JPMorgan’s Marianne Lake said the bank expects 2026 expenses around $105 billion, above what analysts were modeling (LSEG data cited by Reuters put the analyst average near $100.84 billion). [7]
This is important because expense growth can pressure:
- Operating leverage (revenue growth vs. cost growth)
- Efficiency ratio trends
- The market’s willingness to keep paying a premium multiple for “best‑in‑class execution”
At the same time, Lake also pointed to a more constructive environment for bank M&A, and offered directional optimism on key fee lines (more on that next). [8]
Why this still matters before Dec. 26 open:
Even if the market has “moved on” from the one-day stock drop, expense expectations are sticky — they tend to reappear in analyst notes, valuation debates, and earnings Q&A right up until the next report.
4) Counterbalance to higher costs: management sounded constructive on Q4 Wall Street revenue
In the same conference remarks, JPMorgan indicated:
- Investment banking revenue is expected to be up by low single digits in Q4 year-over-year.
- Markets revenue is expected to be up by low teens in Q4 year-over-year. [9]
That matters because a sizable portion of JPMorgan’s premium reputation comes from its ability to perform across cycles — particularly when capital markets activity and trading improve.
This is also consistent with what JPMorgan emphasized earlier in the year: that dealmaking and trading can re-accelerate when equity markets are strong and issuance windows reopen. [10]
5) JPMorgan and crypto: the bank is exploring institutional crypto trading
One of the most closely watched JPMorgan storylines late in 2025 has been whether the largest U.S. bank expands beyond “blockchain plumbing” into more direct crypto market activity.
Reuters reported that JPMorgan is evaluating the possibility of offering cryptocurrency trading to institutional clients, potentially including spot and derivatives, though the effort was described as early-stage and dependent on client demand. [11]
Why it could matter for JPM stock:
- It’s not likely to move near-term earnings the way net interest income does, but it can influence the market’s view of JPMorgan as the “default winner” in new financial infrastructure.
- It may also affect how investors think about regulatory risk and investment needs (technology, compliance, controls) — which ties back to the expense discussion.
6) Not just talk: JPMorgan used blockchain rails for a $50 million debt deal
Separate from trading, JPMorgan also showed practical progress in tokenized finance.
Reuters reported that J.P. Morgan arranged a $50 million short-term bond/commercial paper deal for Galaxy Digital on the Solana blockchain, with Coinbase and Franklin Templeton among the buyers, and settlement using USDC. [12]
This supports the view that JPMorgan is trying to be a key intermediary in tokenized securities — a theme investors increasingly treat as “future-proofing” for capital markets businesses.
7) Capital returns remain a core part of the JPM thesis: dividend + buyback
The next dividend dates investors should have on their calendar
JPMorgan declared a quarterly common dividend of $1.50 per share, payable Jan. 31, 2026, to shareholders of record Jan. 6, 2026. [13]
At the Dec. 24 close ($329.17), that implies an annualized dividend rate of $6.00 per share — roughly ~1.8% yield (math based on the declared dividend and last close). [14]
Buyback support
Earlier in 2025, JPMorgan’s board authorized a new $50 billion common share repurchase program, effective July 1, 2025. [15]
For shareholders, this matters because:
- Buybacks can support EPS and help offset dilution over time.
- The market often assigns a higher valuation to banks that can return capital consistently without stressing capital ratios.
8) Regulation is still a swing factor — and the tone shifted in 2025
Bank investors have spent years tracking capital rules, stress tests, and Basel “endgame” requirements because they can change how much capital banks must hold — and therefore how much they can return to shareholders.
Reuters reported in 2025 that the Federal Reserve began developing a new risk-based capital rule that could be less burdensome than the prior (Biden-era) Basel III endgame proposal, with a new proposal potentially as early as Q1 2026. [16]
Separately, market commentary through 2025 has emphasized that large U.S. banks benefited from a more deregulatory posture and improving investment banking conditions. [17]
Why this matters for JPM before Dec. 26:
Regulatory expectations can influence bank valuations even on quiet days — especially when the stock is at highs and investors are deciding whether “good news is already priced in.”
9) The next major catalyst: JPMorgan earnings on Jan. 13, 2026
JPMorgan is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 13, 2026, with a conference call that morning. [18]
Between now and then, JPM shares can trade on:
- Analyst revisions after the 2026 expense commentary
- Read-throughs from peers
- Macro moves in rates and credit spreads
- Any additional updates on capital markets activity
10) What investors will likely focus on when JPM reports: the “big four” drivers
Even before earnings day, the market tends to price JPMorgan on a handful of repeatable questions. Here’s what to watch heading into Jan. 13, and what can influence positioning before Dec. 26:
A) Net interest income (NII) and rate trajectory
In October, Reuters reported JPMorgan lifted its 2025 NII forecast to roughly $95.8 billion and expected interest income (excluding markets) of $95 billion in 2026, noting balance-sheet growth offset by the impact of lower rates. [19]
A useful reminder of the rate backdrop: JPMorgan’s published prime rate history shows a prime rate of 6.75% effective Dec. 11, 2025, reflecting the lower-rate direction versus 2024. [20]
B) Credit quality (especially cards)
Reuters reported earlier in 2025 that JPMorgan estimated a 2026 credit-card net charge-off rate of 3.6% to 3.9%. [21]
Any new guidance here can materially change the market’s “soft landing vs. consumer stress” read.
C) Fee momentum: investment banking + markets
Lake’s Q4 directional view (IB low single-digit growth; markets low teens growth) gives investors a framework for what “good enough” might look like in the print. [22]
D) Expense discipline vs. strategic spending
The big question: can JPMorgan keep investing (tech, branches, platforms, digital assets) while still showing credible operating leverage?
11) A quick look back at JPMorgan’s most recent reported quarter (why it still frames expectations)
JPMorgan’s last full quarterly snapshot (Q3 2025, ended Sept. 30) showed:
- Net income: $14.4B
- EPS: $5.07
- Revenue: $47.1B
- CET1 ratio: 14.8% (standardized) [23]
Reuters also highlighted that markets revenue hit a third-quarter record, and noted JPMorgan took a $170 million loss tied to exposure to Tricolor, which CEO Jamie Dimon described as “not our finest moment” in terms of controls. [24]
This matters because, at record stock prices, investors tend to ask:
Is JPMorgan delivering “clean” beats driven by durable engines — or are there control/credit surprises that can pop up?
12) What to watch specifically on Dec. 26, 2025 (the practical checklist)
With no major U.S. economic reports scheduled for Friday (per MarketWatch’s calendar) and some federal statistical releases delayed due to the federal holiday, the Dec. 26 session may be more headline- and flow-driven than data-driven. [25]
Here are the most realistic “moving parts” for JPM stock at the open:
- Overall risk sentiment (especially if the Santa-rally narrative persists) [26]
- Treasury yield movement (banks can be sensitive to curve and rate expectations)
- Any incremental headlines on:
- Holiday liquidity (thin trading can exaggerate moves in either direction)
Bottom line for Dec. 26: JPM is priced like the category leader — and the market is debating the 2026 trade-off
JPMorgan enters the Dec. 26 open at record levels because investors have rewarded:
- durable earnings power,
- strong capital returns (dividend + buybacks),
- and improving Wall Street activity,
…but the market is also testing a real tension going into 2026:
Can JPMorgan invest aggressively (tech, growth, digital assets) while keeping expenses from outpacing revenue for too long? [29]
That expense-versus-growth debate — plus the next wave of guidance at earnings on Jan. 13 — is likely to be the dominant narrative hanging over JPM stock even if Dec. 26 itself is a relatively quiet, post-holiday tape. [30]
This article is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Markets involve risk, including possible loss of principal.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.federalreserve.gov, 3. www.nasdaq.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. www.marketbeat.com, 6. www.marketwatch.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.jpmorganchase.com, 14. www.jpmorganchase.com, 15. www.jpmorganchase.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.ft.com, 18. www.jpmorganchase.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.jpmorganchase.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.jpmorganchase.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.marketwatch.com, 26. www.marketwatch.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.jpmorganchase.com
