December 10, 2025 — JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) is under pressure after warning that its 2026 expenses will be far higher than Wall Street expected, sending the stock to its biggest one-day drop in eight months and making it the worst performer in the Dow. [1]
This article rounds up the latest news, forecasts, and professional as well as algorithmic analyses around JPM stock as of December 10, 2025, and explains what’s really driving the move.
JPMorgan Chase Stock Today: Price Action at a Glance
- Last close (Dec 9, 2025): around $300.5 per share, down about 4.7% on the day — the steepest single‑day fall since early April. [2]
- Market cap: roughly $818 billion. [3]
- 52‑week range: about $202 to $322. [4]
- Pre‑market (early Dec 10, 2025): trading just above $300, with quotes around $300.5–$301 in early indicative pricing. [5]
The drop has been big enough that JPM has been dragging the Dow Jones Industrial Average lower, with the index down roughly 0.4% in a largely flat broader market ahead of the Federal Reserve’s December rate decision. [6]
The Catalyst: 2026 Expense Guidance Jumps to $105 Billion
The main shock for investors came from Marianne Lake, JPMorgan’s head of Consumer & Community Banking and a leading contender to succeed CEO Jamie Dimon.
At the Goldman Sachs U.S. Financial Services Conference in New York, Lake told investors that:
- Firm‑wide expenses are now expected to reach about $105 billion in 2026.
- That’s almost $9 billion higher than 2025, and well above the Street’s prior consensus near $101 billion. [7]
- The new forecast is roughly 3.5–4% above analyst expectations and about 9% higher than 2025’s expense base, according to multiple reports. [8]
Lake stressed that the biggest drivers are “high‑quality” growth investments, not just inflation or one‑off items. Spending is being ramped up in:
- Artificial intelligence and technology
- Marketing and product investment, especially in credit cards
- Performance‑based compensation for advisors
- Branch expansion and broader distribution
- Structural inflationary costs such as real estate [9]
From a shareholder’s perspective, the problem is math:
- Revenue is expected to grow, but in the near term, cost growth may outpace revenue growth, compressing operating leverage and profitability. [10]
That’s why the stock sold off even though the spending is framed as “good” growth‑oriented cost.
Revenue Outlook Still Solid: Q4 Trading and Investment Banking
Despite the cost shock, JPMorgan is not painting a gloomy revenue picture for late 2025:
- Q4 2025 investment banking fees are expected to be up low single digits year‑on‑year.
- Q4 markets revenue is guided to be up in the low‑teens percentage range from a year earlier. [11]
- Management also highlighted a more constructive environment for bank M&A, implying a healthier pipeline for advisory and financing work going into 2026. [12]
So the story is not “growth is slowing” but rather “growth will be more expensive.”
Management’s Read on the Economy: “A Little More Fragile”
Lake also gave an unusually nuanced view of the U.S. consumer and economy:
- Consumers and small businesses remain broadly healthy, with credit metrics like charge‑offs and delinquencies still contained. [13]
- However, the backdrop is “a little more fragile”:
- Labor demand is softening.
- Cash buffers built during the pandemic have mostly normalized.
- Price levels remain high even as inflation has cooled, squeezing lower‑income households more. [14]
- JPMorgan expects credit‑card charge‑offs of about 3.3% in 2025, up from the unusually low levels of the stimulus period but still within historical norms. [15]
In short, JPM sees no immediate credit crisis, but less room for consumers to absorb new shocks — one reason the bank is also boosting its risk management, marketing and digital capabilities.
Fundamental Picture: Earnings, Profitability and Scale
Despite the market’s sudden shift in sentiment, JPMorgan remains fundamentally very strong on most classic metrics:
- In Q3 2025, JPM reported:
- Earnings per share (EPS): $5.07 vs. $4.83 consensus.
- Revenue: about $47.1 billion vs. $44.4 billion expected.
- Net margin: roughly 21%.
- Return on equity: around 17%. [16]
- For full‑year 2024, JPMorgan generated:
- Revenue of about $166.8 billion, up ~14.5% year‑on‑year.
- Earnings of roughly $56.9 billion, up ~19%. [17]
At the current price around $300, that translates into roughly:
- Trailing P/E: just under 15x.
- Forward P/E: around 14–15x, depending on whose EPS estimates you use. [18]
On top of that, JPMorgan is the largest U.S. bank by assets and one of the largest globally, with a sprawling footprint across consumer banking, commercial banking, investment banking, payments and asset & wealth management. [19]
That scale is both why it can invest so heavily and why those investments can scare investors when the bill suddenly looks bigger.
Dividend & Capital Return: $1.50 Quarterly Payout and ~2% Yield
While expenses are rising, JPMorgan is also sending a strong capital‑return signal:
- On December 9, 2025, the board declared a $1.50 per‑share quarterly common dividend.
- Record date: January 6, 2026
- Ex‑dividend date: January 5, 2026
- Payment date: January 31, 2026 [20]
- At a share price around $300, that’s an annualized $6.00 dividend, or a yield of roughly 2.0%. [21]
The payout has been steadily rising:
- $1.25 per quarter in late 2024
- $1.40 in early and mid‑2025
- $1.50 as of late 2025 [22]
Combined with robust earnings and strong capital ratios (as implied by Fed stress tests and ongoing payouts), the dividend story is a key anchor for long‑term income‑focused shareholders.
What Wall Street Analysts Are Saying About JPM Stock
Analyst sentiment is mixed but generally constructive after the expense shock.
Consensus Ratings
Different data providers show slightly different snapshots, but the broad picture looks like this:
- MarketBeat finds:
- 15 Buy, 9 Hold, 3 Sell ratings.
- A consensus rating of “Hold.” [23]
- StockAnalysis.com summarizes 13 analysts with an average rating of “Buy.” [24]
- MarketWatch reports an average recommendation of “Overweight” across 28 ratings. [25]
- Zacks currently classifies JPM as a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), with a long‑term view that recognizes JPMorgan’s strengths but also elevated expense and credit‑cost risks. [26]
In other words, few people are calling JPM a disaster, but the expense news has clearly cooled enthusiasm at the margin.
Price Targets
On price targets, the numbers cluster surprisingly tightly:
- MarketBeat consensus 12‑month target: about $325–326, with individual targets ranging from $235 to $370. That implies roughly 8% upside from the ~$300 level. [27]
- StockAnalysis.com: average target $326.08, also about 8.5% above the latest close. [28]
- Seeking Alpha aggregates a similar consensus near $328, with an overall stance described as “Bullish”. [29]
Meanwhile, EPS estimates from Yahoo Finance and others still point to:
- 2025 EPS around $20
- 2026 EPS around $21–21.5, implying mid‑single‑digit earnings growth even after higher expenses. [30]
Taken together, analysts broadly see moderate upside, but the street is now debating whether the new cost trajectory will cap that upside unless revenue surprises to the upside as well.
Quant & Technical Models: Short‑Term Caution
While fundamental analysts are mostly neutral‑to‑positive, several algorithmic and technical models have turned cautious after Tuesday’s drop.
StockInvest.us: Downgraded to “Sell Candidate”
Technical research site StockInvest.us:
- Notes that JPM fell 4.68% on December 9 to $300.47, with a wide 6.26% intraday range between $300.02 and $318.80. [31]
- Points out the price has still risen in 6 of the last 10 sessions, up ~0.8% over two weeks, but volume spiked on the down‑day, which they flag as a bearish warning sign. [32]
- Sees the stock trading in a horizontal trend channel and expects, with 90% probability, a three‑month range of roughly $292 to $318 if the trend holds. [33]
- Identifies support around $298.5 and resistance near $302–311, and notes that both short‑ and long‑term moving averages are currently flashing sell signals. [34]
Based on this, StockInvest has downgraded JPM from Hold to a “Sell candidate” in the short term.
Intellectia.ai: Strong Sell Near Term, Mixed Medium Term
AI‑driven forecast platform Intellectia.ai arrives at a similar short‑term conclusion:
- Rates JPM as a “Strong Sell candidate” in the near term, with 5 technical sell signals vs 3 buy signals.
- Expects only mild near‑term moves, with a 1‑day target near $302 (+0.5%) and 1‑week and 1‑month forecasts implying gains of less than 2%. [35]
- For 2026, Intellectia’s long‑horizon model projects an average price near $255, implying a mid‑teens downside vs. current levels, but its 2030 forecast around $405 would represent roughly 35% upside from today. [36]
- Its moving‑average analysis shows short‑ and mid‑term trends turning bearish (short‑term price below several key SMAs, and the 20‑day moving average now below the 60‑day), while long‑term averages remain supportive. [37]
Short Interest: Still Very Low
Despite the negative technical calls, short interest remains modest:
- As of mid‑November 2025, short interest was under 1% of float, with a short ratio just over 3 days. [38]
That suggests little evidence of a large coordinated bearish bet against JPMorgan at this stage.
Institutional Flows: Some Trimming, Some Buying
Recent regulatory filings highlight that professional investors are far from unanimous on JPM at current levels.
- The California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS) trimmed its JPM stake by about 6.8% in Q2, though the stock still represents around 1% of its portfolio and remains a top‑15 holding. [39]
- Gamco Investors cut its position by roughly 13.6% in Q2. [40]
- At the same time, several large investors — including Kingstone Capital, Geode Capital, UBS and Norges Bank — have added significantly to positions, and around 71–72% of JPM’s shares are institutionally owned. [41]
The takeaway: big money is actively re‑balancing around JPM, not abandoning it.
Strategic Moves: AI, National Security and ETF Expansion
Even as investors digest the higher expense base, JPMorgan is rolling out a series of strategic initiatives that help explain where the money is going.
AI and Technology
Lake explicitly tied higher spending to AI and tech investments — one reason 2026 expenses are jumping. She indicated that these are meant to:
- Improve productivity and automation
- Enhance risk management and fraud detection
- Support new digital experiences for customers in cards, payments and retail banking [42]
Other U.S. banks have acknowledged similar AI spending plans, but JPMorgan is clearly leading on scale, which may force rivals to follow. [43]
Todd Combs and the “Security and Resiliency” Push
In a high‑profile talent move, JPMorgan recently hired Todd Combs, a longtime Warren Buffett protégé and former GEICO CEO, to lead a new $10 billion Security and Resiliency Investment (SRI) initiative. [44]
The SRI fund is expected to:
- Invest JPMorgan’s own capital in areas tied to U.S. national security, including supply chains, advanced manufacturing, defense and energy resilience. [45]
- Generate new fee and investment opportunities for the bank’s wholesale and asset‑management arms over time.
This type of project fits the narrative that today’s higher costs are funding tomorrow’s higher‑margin growth engines.
ETF Conversions and Alternatives
On the asset‑management side, J.P. Morgan has:
- Announced plans to convert several U.S. mutual funds to ETFs in 2026, covering nearly $5 billion in assets, positioning the firm more aggressively in the fastest‑growing retail fund wrapper. [46]
- Published a 2026 Global Alternatives Outlook, highlighting opportunities across private credit, real assets, infrastructure and other alternative strategies that are fee‑rich relative to traditional mutual funds. [47]
Again, these are areas where up‑front investment today could translate into higher, more durable fee income later.
Macro Backdrop: Fed Uncertainty but Positive 2026 Equity Outlook
The expense shock hit just as markets are bracing for the Federal Reserve’s December 2025 meeting.
- The Fed could cut, hold, or (less likely) hike, and traders are intensely focused on how quickly 2026 rate cuts might come. [48]
- On Tuesday, the S&P 500 was roughly flat, while the Dow slipped ~0.4%, largely because of JPMorgan’s drop. [49]
For banks like JPMorgan, interest‑rate expectations are crucial:
- Lower rates can pressure net interest margins, but
- They can boost loan demand, reduce funding costs for corporates and support deal‑making — good for investment banking and trading.
J.P. Morgan’s own Global Research team is positive on global equities for 2026, expecting double‑digit gains across both developed and emerging markets — a constructive backdrop for a large, diversified financial institution if it can manage its cost base. [50]
Expert Fundamental View: Growth vs. Costs
The expense shock lands in the context of long‑term research views like those from Zacks:
- JPM shares are up about 32% over the past year, roughly in line with peers in the investment‑banking group. [51]
- Zacks expects net interest income (NII) to grow at a 3.3% CAGR through 2027, driven by loan growth and rate dynamics.
- Non‑interest income, however, is expected to be under pressure in the near term due to capital‑markets volatility and slower mortgage activity. [52]
- Technology and marketing spending is forecast to push expenses up at a 4.4% CAGR through 2027, while loan‑loss provisions are projected to rise more than 10% in 2025 as credit normalizes. [53]
That’s almost exactly the trade‑off playing out this week:
Strong franchise + growing revenues – higher structural costs – normalizing credit = more complex medium‑term earnings picture.
Key Things for JPM Watchers to Monitor Next
For investors following JPMorgan Chase stock (whether or not they currently own it), the next months will likely hinge on a few key signposts:
- Q4 2025 earnings & 2026 guidance (expected mid‑January 2026)
- How much more detail management gives on expense phasing, productivity gains from AI and technology, and potential efficiency offsets. [54]
- Federal Reserve policy path
- Rate‑cut timing in 2026 will shape both net interest income and capital‑markets activity — two huge revenue lines for JPMorgan. [55]
- Credit trends in U.S. consumer and corporate portfolios
- Watch card charge‑offs, delinquencies and commercial real‑estate exposures relative to management’s “a little more fragile” description of the economy. [56]
- Return on tangible equity (ROTE) vs. expense trajectory
- If higher spending visibly supports mid‑ to high‑teens ROE/ROTE, the market may eventually reward the strategy; if not, pressure to rein in costs will grow. [57]
- Regulatory and capital developments
- Finalization or modification of U.S. capital rules (including any re‑shaping of the “Basel III Endgame”) could affect how much capital JPM can return while funding growth. [58]
Final Note
Nothing in this article is financial advice, a recommendation to buy or sell JPMorgan Chase & Co. stock, or a prediction of future performance. It’s a synthesis of today’s publicly available news, forecasts and analyses to help you understand why JPM moved, how experts are framing the situation, and which variables are likely to matter most from here.
References
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