New York — December 2, 2025
Kalshi, the U.S.-regulated prediction market that lets people trade on the outcome of real‑world events, has raised a stunning $1 billion Series E at an $11 billion valuation, more than doubling its price tag in under two months. The deal cements the seven‑year‑old startup as one of the most valuable fintechs in the world and turns cofounder Luana Lopes Lara, 29, into the youngest self‑made woman billionaire on the planet, according to Forbes. [1]
The raise, led by crypto‑focused investment firm Paradigm with participation from Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, Meritech Capital, IVP, ARK Invest, Anthos Capital, CapitalG and Y Combinator, also marks the latest escalation in an increasingly global race to build the dominant “everything prediction market” powering brokers, media companies and crypto exchanges alike. [2]
What Happened on December 2, 2025
In a press release issued today, Kalshi announced a $1 billion Series E round at an $11 billion valuation, describing the funding as fuel to “accelerate the shift in consumer behavior” toward trading on events instead of just watching them. [3]
Key facts from today’s news:
- Round size: $1 billion
- Valuation: $11 billion post‑money
- Lead investor: Paradigm
- Other backers: Sequoia, Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), Meritech Capital, IVP, ARK Invest, Anthos Capital, CapitalG (Alphabet’s growth arm), Y Combinator and others [4]
- Prior round: About $300 million at a $5 billion valuation less than two months ago, according to TechCrunch and Reuters, meaning Kalshi has more than doubled its valuation in roughly eight weeks. [5]
- This is Kalshi’s third funding round of 2025, reflecting aggressive investor appetite for the category. [6]
On the business side, Kalshi says it is now:
- Clearing over $1 billion in trading volume every week, up more than 1,000% from 2024
- Serving “millions” of weekly users trading on more than 3,500 live markets across politics, sports, economics and culture [7]
- Running at over $50 billion in annualized trading volume, according to new investor IVP [8]
In other words, this is not a speculative bet on a tiny niche: prediction markets are already operating at mid‑tier derivatives‑exchange scale.
The Investors Behind the $1 Billion Bet
The new round brings together some of the most aggressive fintech and crypto investors of the last decade.
- Paradigm (lead): Co‑founder Matt Huang frames Kalshi as a phenomenon on par with early crypto, arguing that prediction markets are tapping “latent demand” from both institutions and everyday users. [9]
- Sequoia & a16z: Both led Kalshi’s previously reported $300 million round at a $5 billion valuation, doubling down as the company scaled post‑election volumes into everyday markets. [10]
- IVP: In a blog titled “Kalshi: The Everything Exchange,” IVP says the company has grown nearly 1,000% year‑over‑year and already sees one‑third of volume coming from institutions, a strong signal that this is evolving from consumer speculation into a genuine hedging tool. [11]
- CapitalG, ARK, Meritech and Anthos: Their participation underscores that prediction markets are no longer a crypto‑only story; they’re increasingly viewed as mainstream financial infrastructure. [12]
For late‑stage investors, the thesis is clear: if “everything is an asset class,” as Kalshi’s founders like to say, then whoever builds the default venue for trading those outcomes stands to own an entire new layer of the financial system. [13]
How Kalshi Works — and Why Volumes Are Exploding
Kalshi is a CFTC‑regulated designated contract market built around binary “event contracts”: yes/no contracts that pay out a fixed amount (typically $1) depending on whether a specified event happens. [14]
Examples of markets on Kalshi include:
- Will the Federal Reserve cut rates at its next meeting?
- Will the S&P 500 close above 5,500 on December 31?
- Will a named hurricane hit Florida this season?
- Will a specific team win the Super Bowl?
Traders buy “Yes” or “No” contracts at prices between 1 and 99 cents; the price reflects the market‑implied probability. If the event happens, “Yes” pays out $1; if not, “No” does.
What’s changed in 2025 is the scale and breadth of these markets:
- Kalshi’s own figures show weekly trading volumes now exceed $1 billion, up more than 10x versus last year. [15]
- IVP reports annualized volume above $50 billion, with institutions already responsible for around one‑third of trading. [16]
- Markets span economic releases, sports, entertainment and climate‑related events, allowing both speculative trading and genuine hedging (for example, an insurer or farmer hedging weather risk). [17]
At the consumer level, Kalshi pitches itself as a new way to “engage with the news”: instead of just reading headlines, users put real money behind their beliefs about what will happen next. [18]
Luana Lopes Lara: From Bolshoi Ballerina to Youngest Self‑Made Woman Billionaire
Today’s funding round is also a personal milestone for Luana Lopes Lara, Kalshi’s cofounder and COO.
According to a Forbes LinkedIn post and other coverage, the 29‑year‑old Brazilian‑born entrepreneur is now the world’s youngest self‑made woman billionaire, overtaking 31‑year‑old Scale AI cofounder Lucy Guo and previous title‑holder Taylor Swift. [19]
Her backstory reads like a movie treatment:
- Born in Brazil, she trained as a professional ballerina at a Bolshoi‑affiliated academy, practicing up to eight hours a day before switching from dance to science. [20]
- She went on to MIT, earning a Bachelor’s in Computer Science and Mathematics and a Master’s in Engineering, and winning medals in Brazilian math and astronomy Olympiads along the way. [21]
- Before founding Kalshi, she worked as a quantitative trader at firms like Citadel Securities and Five Rings, plus research and engineering roles across several MIT labs. [22]
- She met cofounder Tarek Mansour at MIT; the pair later joined Y Combinator’s W19 batch with the first version of Kalshi. [23]
At an $11 billion corporate valuation, even a single‑digit ownership stake translates into a paper fortune well north of $1 billion, putting her in ultra‑elite territory among tech founders—let alone among women and immigrants. (Kalshi’s other cofounder, Mansour, also becomes a billionaire on paper at the same time. [24])
Beyond the headline number, Lopes Lara’s story is already being held up in business and tech media as a symbol of female and immigrant representation in high‑stakes finance, showing a path that runs from ballet studio to derivatives exchange rather than the usual Ivy‑plus‑banking template. [25]
A Red‑Hot Prediction Market Arms Race
Kalshi’s monster round doesn’t happen in isolation. The entire prediction market sector is in breakout mode:
- Rival Polymarket has reportedly been in talks to raise capital at a $12–$15 billion valuation, according to Bloomberg and other outlets cited by TechCrunch and Reuters. [26]
- Last week, the CFTC granted Polymarket an amended order of designation, clearing it to offer intermediated access through traditional futures brokerages and to re‑enter the U.S. market under full federal oversight. [27]
- Robinhood rolled out a prediction markets hub earlier this year, using its existing brokerage footprint to bring event contracts to a mainstream retail audience. [28]
Perhaps the most strategically important news for Kalshi, though, sits just outside today’s funding announcement:
- In mid‑November, Coinbase and Kalshi unveiled a USDC‑powered custody partnership, with Coinbase Custody holding stablecoin collateral for Kalshi’s event contracts. [29]
- Just days later, The Information reported that Coinbase is preparing to launch a consumer‑facing prediction market product “powered by Kalshi,” letting crypto clients bet on elections, sports and economic events directly inside Coinbase’s app. [30]
Leaked screenshots from tech researcher Jane Manchun Wong show Coinbase prototypes with “Predictions” tabs and disclosures stating that “prediction markets are offered … through KalshiEX LLC.” [31]
Taken together, this means:
- Polymarket is positioning itself as a crypto‑native exchange for global event trading, now working its way back into the regulated U.S. channel. [32]
- Kalshi is increasingly becoming the regulated “backend” for other platforms—from Coinbase to potential media partners—while also running its own app. [33]
- Robinhood and traditional brokers are racing to avoid being disintermediated by plugging prediction markets into their own “super‑app” strategies. [34]
A Times report today describes this as a full‑blown “U.S. prediction market boom,” noting that Wall Street firms and exchanges have begun deploying billions into the space as they look for new sentiment and hedging tools. [35]
Regulation: Between Derivatives Exchange and Sportsbook
If prediction markets are the new frontier, regulation is the terrain they’re fighting over.
Federal Level: Kalshi vs. the CFTC
Kalshi’s path to today’s valuation runs straight through Washington, D.C.:
- In 2023, the CFTC disapproved Kalshi’s self‑certified “Congressional Control” contracts, arguing that election‑related event contracts amounted to banned gaming or gambling under the Commodity Exchange Act. [36]
- Kalshi sued. In September 2024, a federal district court in D.C. ruled that the CFTC had overstepped its authority, vacating the agency’s order and holding that properly structured election contracts are not “gaming” under the statute. [37]
- The court denied the CFTC’s request for a stay, clearing Kalshi to offer regulated election markets, and the regulator eventually dropped its appeal in 2025, signaling a more conciliatory stance toward event contracts. [38]
These rulings are widely seen by lawyers as a landmark for the entire asset class, effectively green‑lighting regulated political markets so long as they’re run through CFTC‑licensed exchanges rather than offshore sportsbooks. [39]
State Level: Nevada, New Jersey and the “Is This Gambling?” Question
Federal clarity hasn’t eliminated friction at the state level.
- Nevada: Just last week, a federal judge in Las Vegas ruled that Kalshi must comply with Nevada’s gaming regulations for its sports‑related markets, rejecting Kalshi’s argument that CFTC oversight preempted state gambling law. [40]
- New Jersey: Earlier this year, a federal court granted Kalshi a preliminary injunction preventing New Jersey’s Division of Gaming Enforcement from enforcing a cease‑and‑desist order that would have barred the platform from operating in the state. [41]
- Legal analysts say this conflict—commodity exchange vs. sportsbook—is now one of the hottest topics in financial regulation, with event contracts blurring the line between hedging tool and gambling product. [42]
For Kalshi, the message is two‑sided: federal courts and regulators are opening the door, but individual states can still complicate how and where certain markets—especially sports and local politics—are offered.
How Kalshi Plans to Use the New Money
According to today’s press release and corroborating reports, Kalshi plans to deploy the $1 billion war chest across four main fronts: [43]
- Mass‑Market Expansion
- Push consumer adoption from “millions” to potentially tens of millions or more in the U.S.
- Invest heavily in product design, onboarding and education so prediction markets feel less like trading terminals and more like everyday apps.
- Brokerage and Exchange Integrations
- Deepen integrations with brokerages and trading apps, turning Kalshi into a plug‑and‑play event layer for platforms like Coinbase, and potentially others mentioned in industry chatter. [44]
- Media and Data Partnerships
- Pursue news partnerships, including a reported tie‑up with CNN discussed in TechCrunch’s coverage, which cited The New York Times as saying Kalshi is planning a major media deal. [45]
- Position Kalshi odds as a real‑time “forecasting layer” alongside polls and analyst projections.
- New Market Types and Risk Products
- Expand beyond straightforward yes/no contracts into more complex structures that help corporates and institutions hedge specific risks—from hurricane landfalls to government shutdowns and climate‑related events. [46]
This dovetails with IVP’s thesis that prediction markets are evolving into a fully‑fledged asset class, giving institutions a way to hedge previously unhedgeable risks and consumers a way to protect themselves where traditional insurance is scarce or expensive. [47]
Forecast: What Kalshi’s $11 Billion Moment Means for 2026
Looking ahead, several trends are likely to define how this story evolves.
1. Prediction Markets as a Standard Feature, Not a Niche
With Coinbase, Robinhood and traditional brokerages all circling the space, event contracts are on track to become a default tab in major trading apps, much like options or crypto are today. [48]
If Kalshi can establish itself as the regulated backend for these products, it could become to prediction markets what CME is to futures—an infrastructure layer more people rely on than directly see.
2. Polymarket vs. Kalshi: Regulated Twin Towers
Polymarket’s new CFTC‑blessed status and rumored $12–$15 billion valuation talks set up a duopoly‑style competition between two very different models: [49]
- Kalshi: compliance‑first, exchange‑style, heavily integrated into U.S. brokerages and institutions.
- Polymarket: crypto‑native, global, with a strong foothold among DeFi‑savvy retail traders and new relationships with major sports leagues. [50]
Expect more institutional partnerships, white‑label deals and cross‑listing arrangements as both fight to become the default “prediction layer” for other apps.
3. Intensifying Regulatory Scrutiny
As volumes and valuations rise, so will political and regulatory attention—especially around:
- Election markets and concerns about “gambling on democracy”
- Sports and entertainment markets that may compete with state‑licensed sportsbooks
- Retail investor protection, particularly for younger users treating event trading like social betting [51]
Kalshi’s recent court wins and today’s raise give it substantial resources to keep fighting these battles—but they also make it a bigger target.
4. Forecasting as a New Information Layer
If prediction markets continue to outperform polls and pundits on high‑profile calls—like recent election and macroeconomic outcomes—expect to see: [52]
- More media outlets embedding live probabilities from Kalshi and competitors in their coverage
- Data vendors bundling event odds alongside traditional financial data
- Corporates using prediction markets as inputs to planning and risk models, not just hedging tools
In that scenario, Kalshi’s biggest long‑term asset might not be its fee revenue, but its data: a continuous stream of revealed probabilities about the world.
The Bottom Line
On December 2, 2025, Kalshi didn’t just raise a very large round. It:
- Doubled its valuation to $11 billion in under two months
- Turned its founders into paper billionaires, making Luana Lopes Lara the youngest self‑made woman billionaire globally [53]
- Pulled prediction markets firmly into the financial mainstream, right as the sector’s regulatory and competitive landscape is heating up
Whether Kalshi ultimately becomes the “everything exchange” its backers envision will depend on how it navigates this next phase: scaling responsibly, staying on the right side of regulators and out‑executing nimble rivals like Polymarket while deepening ties with giants like Coinbase and, potentially, major media brands. [54]
For now, one thing is clear: betting on the future has never been a bigger business.
References
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