Karman Holdings (KRMN) Stock: News, Forecasts, and Analyst Outlook for December 18, 2025

Karman Holdings Inc. (best known as Karman Space & Defense) is back on investors’ radar on Thursday, December 18, 2025, as fresh institutional ownership data and new valuation commentary collide with an already-heated 2025 run in aerospace and defense equities.

One important housekeeping note up front: Karman Holdings Inc. trades on the NYSE under ticker KRMN—not ONDS. ^[1]
ONDS is the ticker for Ondas Holdings Inc., a separate defense-and-autonomy company that also made news today. ^[2]

With that clarified, here’s what’s new (and what matters) for Karman (KRMN) stock as of 12/18/2025, pulling together the day’s news, forecasts, and analysis.

Karman (KRMN) stock today: price action and key levels

Karman shares were trading around $68.93 on December 18, up from a $64.94 prior close—roughly a 6% move on the day. The session range cited was $67.04 to $70.88, with a 52-week range of $25.03 to $88.82—a reminder that volatility has been part of the ride for this newly public name. ^[3]

Market cap references across major market-data and news aggregators cluster around ~$8.6 billion, reinforcing that Karman has rapidly graduated into “real money is watching” territory, not just small-cap speculation. ^[4]

What Karman Holdings actually does (and why investors care)

Karman positions itself as a supplier of mission-critical systems spanning both “above the atmosphere” and “very fast through the atmosphere” markets: launch vehicles, satellites/spacecraft, missiles, missile defense, hypersonics, and UAS (uncrewed aircraft systems). ^[5]

A simple way to think about the story investors are buying is this:

Defense demand is broadening (missile defense, hypersonics, munitions throughput).
Space demand is diversifying (legacy and emerging launch providers).
Karman sells subsystems and enabling hardware across many programs—so it’s not “one rocket, one contract, one cliff.”

That last point shows up directly in management’s commentary: Karman cites a diversified portfolio of more than 80 customers and more than 130 programs, with revenue growth described as net organic growth across all end-markets. ^[6]

Today’s Karman news (12/18/2025): an institutional filing puts KRMN back in focus

The most concrete “new” headline on December 18 is a 13F-driven institutional ownership update.

MarketBeat reported that Oak Thistle LLC initiated a new position in Karman during Q3, buying 24,538 shares valued at about $1.77 million, according to the firm’s SEC filing. ^[7]

The same report also notes smaller new positions from a handful of institutions across earlier quarters (e.g., new stakes by Global Trust Asset Management, Penserra, Amalgamated Bank, Osaic, and the Teacher Retirement System of Texas). While these individual amounts are not huge, the pattern matters for a recently listed defense/space name: ownership breadth can help stabilize trading—until it doesn’t. ^[8]

The other side of the tape: insider selling is part of the conversation

Alongside institutional adds, December’s narrative also includes insider selling.

MarketBeat’s 12/18 report states insiders have been net sellers, describing sales that include the COO’s 74,000-share sale and another insider’s 62,000-share sale, and tallying 251,000 shares sold for roughly $15.4 million over the last 90 days. ^[9]

Insider sales are not automatically bearish (taxes, diversification, liquidity planning—humans contain multitudes). But in a stock that has moved fast and trades at a premium valuation, insider activity tends to get amplified by market psychology.

The valuation debate heats up on 12/18: “great company, spicy price”

Two separate analysis streams published on December 18, 2025 highlight a classic late-cycle problem for high-momentum defense/space equities: even if execution is strong, the stock can outrun the story.

Simply Wall St: “Has Karman run too far?”

Simply Wall St’s 12/18 piece frames Karman’s recent move as dramatic: it points to a 116.1% year-to-date gain, despite a pullback over the prior week, and notes the stock remained up 11.4% over the last month at the time of publication. ^[10]

Its valuation model (discounted cash flow) argues the shares look materially overvalued—citing an implied “intrinsic value” around $27.30 versus the then-current trading price, and flagging weak value-screen results. ^[11]

MarketBeat: high P/E and premium pricing

MarketBeat also leans into the premium narrative, citing a P/E ratio around 259 and reiterating a market cap around $8.57B, while still reporting that the Street consensus leans positive overall. ^[12]

Taken together, the takeaway is less “one model is right” and more: Karman is now priced like a market favorite, which can be wonderful in bull phases and unforgiving when sentiment cools.

Fundamentals that bulls point to: Q3 results, backlog, and raised guidance

To understand why KRMN has been able to command a premium at all, you have to look at the company’s own reported momentum.

In its Q3 fiscal 2025 release (reported November 6, 2025), Karman highlighted:

Record quarterly revenue of $121.8 million, up 41.7% YoY
Net income of $7.6 million and diluted EPS of $0.06
Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA of $37.7 million (record) and non-GAAP adjusted EPS of $0.10
Record funded backlog of $758.2 million, up 30.8% versus year-end 2024 ^[13]

Just as significant: management raised and narrowed its full-year 2025 outlook to:

Revenue: $461M–$463M
Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA: $142M–$143M ^[14]

And for full-year 2026, Karman set preliminary expectations for 20%–25% revenue growth above the midpoint of FY2025 guidance (excluding future acquisitions). ^[15]

That combination—fast growth + growing backlog + upward guidance revisions—is the sort of fuel that can keep a premium multiple alive longer than skeptics expect.

Segment-level growth: where the demand is coming from

Karman’s Q3 reporting breaks revenue into three operating areas, each posting strong year-over-year gains (three months ended Sept. 30, 2025):

Hypersonics & Strategic Missile Defense:$36.6M, up 36.0%
Space & Launch:$40.7M, up 47.2%
Tactical Missiles & Integrated Defense Systems:$44.5M, up 41.7% ^[16]

Management commentary also ties growth to specific program families and themes—higher production output and timing of orders across missile programs, plus mixed effects from large legacy programs (including mention of lower revenue from SLS partially offsetting growth in the space-and-launch category). ^[17]

This matters for forecasting because it suggests Karman’s growth isn’t a single-thread story. Multiple end-markets are pulling.

Strategic expansion: Five Axis acquisition and vertical integration push

Another foundational piece of the Karman narrative is M&A aimed at expanding technical depth (and, ideally, margins).

Karman announced it acquired Five Axis Industries—a supplier focused on specialized nozzle and fuel systems for commercial space engines—for $83 million in cash and about $5 million in Karman shares (transaction closed Oct. 28, 2025). ^[18]

The company positioned the deal as:

expanding capability in space engine subsystems,
enabling vertical integration (including leveraging Karman’s spin-forming capability), and
being immediately accretive across major financial metrics (per management). ^[19]

Karman also disclosed it upsized its Term Loan B to help fund the acquisition (details provided in the same announcement). ^[20]

For investors, this adds both upside and risk: accretive integrations can strengthen a platform, but debt and execution complexity also raise the penalty for mistakes.

Forecasts and outlook: what analysts and technical models are saying on 12/18

“Forecast” can mean three different things in stock coverage: company guidance, Wall Street targets, and technical (price-action) models. Here’s where those stand as of December 18, 2025.

1) Company guidance (the forecast that actually comes with accountability)

Karman’s latest formal outlook remains its FY2025 guidance raise and FY2026 preliminary growth expectation (20%–25% growth vs FY2025 midpoint), as described above. ^[21]

2) Wall Street analyst targets and ratings

MarketBeat reports Karman carries a consensus “Buy” rating with an average target price of $80.50, and notes recent coverage/target updates including a Citigroup initiation at $84 and a Truist initiation at $89, among others. ^[22]

Investing.com’s analyst compilation similarly lists a generally positive tilt, with examples of published targets including $84 (Citi), $100 (Raymond James), $85 (RBC), and $70 (Baird). ^[23]

3) Technical/indicator-based outlook

On the technical side, Investing.com’s aggregated indicator dashboard showed a “Strong Buy” summary on 12/18, with moving averages particularly supportive (while some oscillators remained more neutral). ^[24]

Technical signals can help describe what traders are doing (momentum, trend strength), but they do not replace fundamental drivers like contract wins, backlog conversion, margins, and program timing.

The bull case vs. bear case: what to watch next

Karman’s December 18 picture is basically a tug-of-war between execution strength and valuation gravity.

Why bulls are enthusiastic

Explosive top-line growth in Q3 (41.7% YoY) and strong growth across all reported segments ^[25]
Funded backlog at $758.2M, up 30.8% from year-end—suggesting future revenue visibility ^[26]
Raised FY2025 guidance and a confident FY2026 growth framework ^[27]
A platform strategy reinforced by Five Axis and other capability build-outs ^[28]

Why skeptics aren’t going away

Premium valuation metrics (including a very high P/E cited by MarketBeat) ^[29]
Analysis arguing the stock price has run far ahead of modeled “fair value” ^[30]
Insider selling in the background—fair or not, it tends to shape narrative in high-multiple names ^[31]
Leverage and integration risk implied by acquisition funding and debt metrics (MarketBeat cites debt-to-equity at 1.27). ^[32]

If you’re covering KRMN as a news-driven stock into year-end, the big “watch list” items are straightforward:

backlog updates and major program timing,
margins/EBITDA stability as production scales,
integration progress post-acquisition, and
whether the market continues rewarding defense-space exposure with premium multiples.

Quick ticker clarification: why ONDS keeps showing up (and what ONDS did today)

Because your prompt referenced ONDS, it’s worth reiterating: ONDS is Ondas Holdings Inc., not Karman Holdings Inc. ^[33]

Ondas (ONDS) issued notable updates on December 18, 2025, including announcing that retired U.S. Army Brigadier General Patrick Huston will serve in a newly created Chief Operating Officer role while continuing as General Counsel. ^[34]
Ondas also highlighted completion of a Middle East pilot involving AI-assisted hazard identification for demining workflows through an affiliated defense unit and a partner. ^[35]

Those are separate headlines for a different ticker—but they may explain why “ONDS” is appearing in similar defense-tech news streams today.

Bottom line for December 18, 2025

Karman Holdings (KRMN) stock is ending 2025 with the kind of profile that markets love and fear in equal measure: rapid growth, expanding backlog, bullish guidance—and a price that invites arguments about how much greatness is already priced in.

December 18 adds fresh fuel to both sides of the debate: a new institutional position and generally positive analyst targets on one hand, and persistent valuation warnings plus insider selling chatter on the other. ^[36]

Karman Holdings (KRMN): Is This Defense Stock Ready to Launch?