Kaynes Technology Share Price Slides Over 5% After Kotak Red Flags: What Latest Analyst Targets Signal for NSE: KAYNES (5 December 2025)

Updated: 5 December 2025

Kaynes Technology share price today: sharp sell-off continues

Kaynes Technology India Ltd (NSE: KAYNES, BSE: 543664) extended its recent slide on Friday, 5 December 2025. Around mid-morning, the stock was trading near ₹4,700 per share on the NSE, down roughly 5–6% from Thursday’s close of ₹4,978. Intraday trades have seen a low around ₹4,560 and a high close to ₹4,960, indicating heavy volatility and continued selling pressure. ^[1]

Over the last one month, Kaynes Tech has lost roughly 20–23%, even as the broader indices have been relatively stable. NDTV Profit notes that the share price has fallen about 22.7% in a month, while INDmoney shows a one‑month return of ‑20.3%. ^[2]

From a longer-term lens, the picture is bifurcated. The stock surged about 950% from its November 2022 listing to a peak near ₹7,822 in January 2025, but has since corrected roughly 40% from that high and is still only about 23% above its 52‑week low of around ₹3,825. ^[3]

What triggered the latest fall? The Kotak vs Kaynes accounting debate

The immediate trigger for the latest leg down has been a sharply critical note from Kotak Institutional Equities on Kaynes Technology’s FY25 annual report and smart‑metering acquisition.

Kotak’s report raised multiple concerns: ^[4]

It questioned “ambiguous accounting treatment” around the acquisition of Iskraemeco and Sensonic, smart metering businesses that have contributed significantly to Kaynes’ recent profit growth.
The brokerage highlighted that the Iskraemeco smart metering business accounted for about 44% of FY25 profit growth, with a reported net margin of ~28% in the second half and an implied payback period of about six months, numbers it considered unusually high.
Kotak flagged negative operating cash flow, pointing to an increase in the cash conversion cycle and higher capital expenditure.
It noted that Kaynes capitalised roughly ₹180 crore (about 6.5% of revenue) as “technical know‑how”, asking for more clarity on this item.
The note also pointed to inconsistencies in cash-flow reporting and gaps in related‑party disclosures, as well as delays in government grants tied to semiconductor and PCB expansion projects.
Kotak maintained a “Reduce” rating on the stock.

The combination of aggressive growth capex, rising working capital intensity and opaque accounting around key acquisitions has spooked investors, particularly in a stock that was already priced for perfection.

Company’s detailed clarification: what Kaynes says

In response, Kaynes Technology filed a detailed clarification with the stock exchanges, and the contents were summarised in a follow‑up report by NDTV Profit. ^[5]

Key points from the company’s side:

On contingent liabilities: Kaynes said contingent liabilities rose to about ₹520 crore, largely on account of performance bank guarantees (≈₹96.8 crore) for Iskraemeco projects and corporate guarantees (~₹132.5 crore) extended to subsidiaries as part of post‑acquisition funding.
On related‑party transactions: Purchases of around ₹180 crore from Kaynes Electronics Manufacturing and certain payables/receivables within the group were eliminated on consolidation as per accounting standards. The company acknowledged these were mistakenly omitted from standalone related‑party disclosures and says this has now been corrected.
On borrowing costs: Kaynes argued that interest cost calculations must include bill‑discounting, stating an effective FY25 borrowing cost of ~10%. Using the same method, it said the FY24 cost would be 25.3% instead of the 17.7% cited by Kotak.
On “technical know‑how” capitalisation: The company broke down the ₹180 crore into roughly:
- ₹115 crore of intangible assets from long‑term customer contracts
- Around ₹26 crore of development spend linked to the Iskraemeco acquisition
- Roughly ₹39 crore from internal R&D work

In short, management is arguing that the accounting treatments are defensible and aligned with applicable standards, even if the optics and disclosure detail were not ideal.

JPMorgan: Overweight rating, but “don’t bottom fish”

Amid the turmoil, JPMorgan has taken a nuanced stance. In a note covered by NDTV Profit on 5 December, the global brokerage: ^[6]

Retained an “Overweight” rating on Kaynes Technology.
Reiterated a bullish target price of ₹7,550, implying significant upside from current levels.
Explicitly advised investors not to “bottom fish” in the stock right now, despite that upside.
Argued that fundamentals and guidance remain intact, but sentiment is deeply negative and it is hard to call a near‑term bottom.
Noted that Kaynes is trading with a relative strength index (RSI) around 27, indicating oversold territory on technical charts.

JPMorgan’s message is essentially: structural story intact, but timing is dangerous.

Jefferies’ view: raised target, long-term OSAT and PCB story

Earlier in November, Jefferies also weighed in with an upbeat view. According to an analyst‑ratings report on Investing.com, the brokerage: ^[7]

Raised its price target on Kaynes Technology to ₹7,780 (from ₹7,600) while retaining a Buy rating.
Highlighted multiple growth levers, including:
- Ramp‑up of OSAT (Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test) manufacturing from FY27, with OSAT sales potentially reaching ₹3,500 crore annually by FY30.
- Planned investments in multi-layer and HDI PCBs, supported by approvals under India’s electronics manufacturing schemes.
Pointed out that profit roughly doubled year‑on‑year in the September quarter, even though working capital days remain stretched (about 116 days vs 108 a year ago).
Raised its EPS estimates by 4–6% and projects an aggressive ~51% EPS CAGR for FY25–FY28.

A separate synthesis by Meyka notes that firms such as Prabhudas Lilladher and Nomura are also broadly constructive, with price targets in the ₹7,500–₹7,800 band and perceived upside of 30–45% from early‑December levels. ^[8]

Consensus forecasts: analysts still see ~30%+ upside

Despite the volatility, consensus Street numbers remain positive:

INDmoney, citing S&P Global data, reports that 21 analysts cover Kaynes Technology. About 52% rate it “Buy”, 33% “Hold”, and around 14% “Sell”. The average 12‑month target price is ~₹6,953, with a range of ₹5,703 to ₹8,478. ^[9]
TradingView’s forecast module shows a one‑year price target of ₹7,025.57, also based on 21 analysts, with the same range of ₹5,703 (low) to ₹8,478 (high) and an overall “Buy” rating. ^[10]

Relative to Friday’s intraday levels near ₹4,700, these consensus targets imply 30–50% potential upside, but the dispersion in views — from Kotak’s “Reduce” to Jefferies’ Buy — underlines how polarised the debate has become.

Q2 FY26 performance: strong growth, tighter margins

Underneath the noise, the September quarter (Q2 FY26) was objectively strong on growth metrics:

Consolidated revenue of about ₹949 crore, up roughly 57% year‑on‑year from ₹606 crore in Q2 FY25. ^[11]
Net profit of around ₹121 crore, nearly doubling from ~₹60 crore in the year‑ago quarter. ^[12]
Net profit margin improved from just under 10% to nearly 13%. ^[13]
HDFC Sky’s analysis of the same results also highlights an EBITDA of ~₹148 crore and EBITDA margin expansion to about 16.3%, along with a substantial order book of roughly ₹8,100 crore versus about ₹5,423 crore a year earlier. ^[14]

Across the last several years, Screener data show: ^[15]

Consolidated sales rising from about ₹364 crore in FY2019 to ~₹2,722 crore in FY2025, with trailing‑twelve‑month (TTM) sales around ₹3,225 crore.
Net profit expanding from ~₹10 crore in FY2019 to ₹293 crore in FY2025, with TTM profit near ₹379 crore.
A hefty 3‑year sales CAGR of ~57% and 3‑year profit CAGR around 90%.

In other words, Kaynes is a classic high‑growth, capital‑intensive story: revenues and profits are compounding quickly, but so are the demands on balance sheet and cash flows.

Valuation check: priced for perfection?

Even after the recent correction, Kaynes Technology remains an expensive stock on conventional metrics:

At Thursday’s close of ₹4,978, INDmoney estimates a trailing P/E of about 90x and a price‑to‑book ratio of ~11.5x, with ROE ~8.3% and ROCE ~12.2%. ^[16]
Screener’s long‑term data indicate no dividend payouts to date and a 3‑year ROE around 11%, suggesting that cash is being ploughed back aggressively into capacity and acquisitions rather than returned to shareholders. ^[17]

When growth is flawless, the market often rewards such stories with premium multiples. But when questions arise on cash conversion, accounting quality or subsidy timing, high valuations can unwind quickly — which is exactly what the current drawdown reflects.

Supply overhang: 20% lock-in expiry added fuel

Fundamentals are not the only pressure point. On 18 November 2025, about 20% of Kaynes Technology’s equity — roughly 11.6 million shares — came out of lock‑in, sharply increasing the free float. HDFC Sky reports that the stock fell around 5–6% that day, closing near ₹5,889, with intraday trades between ₹5,855 and ₹6,202, on heavy turnover of nearly ₹1,710 crore. ^[18]

The lock‑in expiry created a technical supply overhang, which, combined with rising concerns over accounting and cash flows, likely amplified the volatility and downside in the subsequent weeks.

Derivatives and technicals: sentiment clearly negative

Market‑wide data underscore how sentiment has flipped:

MarketsMojo notes that on 4 December 2025, Kaynes Technology hit an intraday low of about ₹4,979.8, falling nearly 6% on the day, underperforming both its sector and benchmark indices. The platform’s technical dashboard flags the stock as being in a downtrend, with resistance at key moving averages and elevated derivatives activity on the put side. ^[19]
NDTV Profit points out that trading volumes have risen to around 1.6x the 30‑day average, and the RSI slipped to roughly 31–27, levels usually associated with oversold conditions. ^[20]

In short, Kaynes has moved from being a momentum favourite to a high‑beta laggard in a very short span.

What exactly is Kaynes’ growth story?

At its core, Kaynes Technology is an integrated electronics and EMS (electronics manufacturing services) company that operates across the full spectrum of electronics system design and manufacturing. Its offerings cover: ^[21]

Concept design and process engineering
PCB assembly and box‑build manufacturing
System integration and lifecycle support
Emerging areas such as IoT‑enabled solutions, AR/VR, space‑tech and strategic electronics

The company caters to multiple industries — automotive, industrial, EVs, railways, medical devices, aerospace and defence, among others — and has been actively expanding capacity:

A new OSAT facility aimed at semiconductor packaging, with the first set of samples for an anchor client expected around this period, according to earlier management commentary. ^[22]
Investments into multi‑layer and HDI PCB manufacturing, expected to increase value‑addition per unit and improve margins over time. ^[23]
Launch of India’s first manufactured IPM (intelligent power module) multi‑chip module through its semiconductor arm, signalling ambitions up the value chain. ^[24]

This expansion is why many global brokers are comfortable modelling 50%+ EPS growth over the next few years — but it also explains the elevated capex, working capital needs and leverage.

Key risks investors are watching

The current sell‑off is as much about trust and execution as it is about earnings numbers. The main risk factors being discussed on the Street include:

Accounting clarity and disclosure quality
- Kotak’s critique around ambiguous treatment of acquisitions, technical know‑how capitalisation and related‑party reporting has put the spotlight on how Kaynes communicates complex accounting decisions. The company has responded point‑by‑point, but investors will scrutinise future annual reports and concall explanations more closely. ^[25]
Working capital intensity and cash flows
- Even with strong reported profits, Kotak highlighted negative cash flow and a lengthening cash conversion cycle. Screener data show historically high inventory and debtor days, reflecting the nature of large project‑based EMS/semiconductor contracts. Turning accounting profits into sustainable free cash flow is a central test for management. ^[26]
Capex execution and subsidy risk
- Kaynes’ growth plan depends heavily on semiconductor and advanced PCB capex, some of which is supposed to be supported by government grants. Kotak noted delays and uncertainties around these subsidies, which could impact returns if not resolved. ^[27]
Valuation compression
- Even after the correction, a P/E near 90x and P/B above 11x leave little room for disappointment. Any further issues around accounting, cash flow or macro slowdown could lead to multiple de‑rating, independent of earnings growth. ^[28]
Share‑supply overhang and volatility
- The lock‑in expiry of 20% of equity, combined with high derivatives activity and a large base of momentum‑driven investors, makes the stock particularly sensitive to news flow. Large blocks hitting the market can exacerbate moves in either direction. ^[29]

How the risk–reward now looks, according to the Street

Putting all of this together:

Bullish houses (Jefferies, Nomura, Prabhudas Lilladher and much of the consensus) focus on the order book (~₹8,100 crore), sector tailwinds in EMS and semiconductors, OSAT/PCB optionality and 50%+ projected EPS growth, arguing that current prices already factor in a lot of bad news and still offer 30–45% upside over 12–18 months. ^[30]
Cautious or bearish voices (Kotak, some domestic analysts) emphasise cash‑flow quality, disclosure lapses, subsidy risk and elevated valuations, arguing that the downside from an earnings or regulatory disappointment could be severe, especially after the stock’s multi‑bagger run since listing. ^[31]
JPMorgan sits somewhere in the middle: structurally positive with a high target price, but urging investors not to rush into the dip until the dust settles and new catalysts emerge, likely around Q3 earnings and further clarity on grants and working capital. ^[32]

Bottom line: high-growth EMS leader at a credibility crossroads

Kaynes Technology India today is a textbook high‑growth, high‑valuation, high‑debate stock.

On one side, it offers:
- A rapidly growing revenue base in a structurally attractive sector
- A sizeable and diversifying order book
- Ambitious moves into OSAT and advanced PCB manufacturing
- Strong historical profit growth and multiple global broker “Buy” ratings
On the other, it carries:
- Elevated working‑capital and capex requirements
- Recent questions on accounting and disclosure that management is still working to fully address
- Rich multiples that amplify both upside and downside

For market participants tracking NSE: KAYNES, the near term is likely to remain volatile and headline‑driven. The medium‑term verdict will depend less on price targets and more on whether upcoming quarters show:

Consistent free cash flow,
Improved working capital discipline, and
Clear, transparent accounting and disclosures around acquisitions and intangibles.

Until then, analysts and investors will continue to debate whether Kaynes Technology is a high‑beta compounder temporarily out of favour, or a crowded growth trade where trust and valuation are both being repriced.

References

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Capillary Technologies India Ltd Stock on 5 December 2025: Live Price, Post‑IPO Volatility, Analyst Views and 2026 Outlook