Kaynes Technology Share Price Today: Stock Rebounds From 52‑Week Low After 30% Crash – What Comes Next?

Kaynes Technology India Ltd (NSE: KAYNES) finally caught a bid on 9 December 2025 after a brutal selloff that wiped out nearly half its value from the 52‑week high. The stock rebounded sharply intraday as global brokerages reiterated bullish long‑term calls even while governance worries and stretched working capital continue to hang over the name. ^[1]

Below is a deep dive into what moved the stock today, how the fundamentals look after the crash, and what recent forecasts from brokerages and models are signalling.

Kaynes Technology share price today (9 December 2025)

On Tuesday, 9 December 2025, Kaynes Technology bounced after days of relentless pressure:

• The stock surged about 4–5% intraday, hitting a high near ₹3,958–3,988 after opening weak and slipping to a new 52‑week low around ₹3,713–3,713.75 in early trade. ^[2]
• Moneycontrol data shows a day range of roughly ₹3,712.5–₹4,018, with heavy volume of over 66 lakh shares traded on NSE/BSE combined, making it one of the most actively traded counters by value on the day. ^[3]
• Over the prior four sessions, the stock had crashed close to 30%, and is now down about 49–50% from its 52‑week high of ~₹7,824.95 hit in January 2025. ^[4]

Even as Indian benchmarks fell around 0.5–0.6% amid global risk‑off sentiment, Kaynes managed to rebound roughly 3.5–5%, helped by supportive notes from JPMorgan and Macquarie that flagged the recent valuation reset as attractive relative to growth prospects. ^[5]

Derivatives positioning remained aggressive: Kaynes stayed in the NSE F&O ban list on 9 December alongside Bandhan Bank and Sammaan Capital as its open interest exceeded 95% of the market‑wide position limit – a regulatory brake meant to cool speculation. ^[6]

On valuations, consolidated data compiled by Business Standard shows:

• Market cap: ~₹27,000 crore
• TTM EPS: ~₹56.5
• TTM P/E: ~71x
• Book value per share: ~₹698
• P/B: ~5.8x ^[7]

So even after the crash, Kaynes still trades at premium multiples, though significantly below where it sat a few months ago.

Why did Kaynes Technology crash 30–40% in the first place?

The dramatic drawdown wasn’t random; it came in waves driven by a mix of governance concerns, accounting questions, and supply overhang.

1. Kotak’s forensic‑style note

A now‑high‑profile report by Kotak Institutional Equities dissected Kaynes’ FY25 disclosures and found multiple inconsistencies across:

• Related‑party transactions and inter‑company flows between Kaynes, subsidiaries and the acquired smart‑meter business Iskraemeco
• Treatment of goodwill and customer‑contract intangibles from acquisitions
• Rising contingent liabilities and questions around cash‑flow conversion relative to reported profit
• Increasing working capital days despite strong revenue growth ^[8]

Kotak’s note did not accuse fraud, but it challenged the clarity and consistency of Kaynes’ balance sheet and cash‑flow statements. Markets, already skittish about frothy mid‑cap valuations, responded with a brutal de‑rating.

2. Moneycontrol’s “reporting lapse” story and auditor angle

On 8 December, Moneycontrol published an exclusive stating that Kaynes admitted a “reporting lapse” in its standalone FY24 accounts: a related‑party transaction with its smart‑metering subsidiary Iskraemeco had been omitted from the standalone numbers, though it was correctly eliminated in the consolidated financials. ^[9]

Key points from that coverage and subsequent analyst commentary:

• Management accepted that the disclosure miss was a mistake, and indicated it plans to change its statutory auditor after the episode. ^[10]
• The company walked analysts through a numerical reconciliation of goodwill and intangible assets arising from acquisitions, attempting to address Kotak’s concerns on that front. ^[11]
• Kaynes highlighted that a chunky smart‑meter receivable (originally about ₹3,000 crore at the Iskraemeco acquisition) has already been reduced to ~₹2,300 crore and is expected to normalise by FY26, improving operating cash flows. ^[12]

The exchanges took note: BSE and NSE formally sought clarification from the company on the Moneycontrol story on 8 December, and said they were awaiting Kaynes’ official reply. ^[13]

3. Lock‑in expiry and supply overhang

Around 20% of Kaynes’ equity – roughly 1.16 crore shares – came out of lock‑in on 18 November 2025. That led to a sharp 6% single‑day fall as some early shareholders chose to book profits, increasing free float exactly when sentiment was turning cautious. ^[14]

4. Macro risk‑off in Indian mid‑caps

All of this played out against a broader backdrop of:

• Heavy foreign portfolio outflows – about $1.32 billion in the first six sessions of December alone
• Weak mid‑cap and small‑cap indices and global jitters linked to U.S.–India trade tensions and the Fed’s upcoming rate decision ^[15]

So when governance questions hit a high‑growth, premium‑valued mid‑cap like Kaynes, the correction was swift and violent.

Company response: “lapses, not fraud” and a promised clean‑up

Across its business‑update call, exchange clarifications and media interaction, Kaynes has tried to draw a line between reporting quality and business reality:

• It has acknowledged disclosure errors in standalone accounts (particularly related‑party transactions), but insists that consolidated numbers correctly eliminated intra‑group flows. ^[16]
• Management explained that under Ind AS 103, customer contracts acquired through Iskraemeco were recognised as intangible assets and amortised, offsetting goodwill – which is why goodwill didn’t rise as much as some analysts expected. ^[17]
• On borrowing costs, the company argued that once bill‑discounting costs are included, its effective cost of debt is closer to ~10% rather than the ~17–18% implied by a narrow reading of finance‑cost lines. ^[18]

At the same time, the company has clearly conceded that investor trust has been damaged and signalled process changes – including automated related‑party checks and an intent to change auditors – to restore confidence. ^[19]

For markets, though, the key question isn’t whether the numbers can be reconciled on paper; it’s whether cash flows, working capital and governance will look visibly better over the next few quarters.

Fundamentals after the dust‑up: still a high‑growth story

Beneath the noise, Kaynes remains one of India’s faster‑growing electronics and semiconductor‑adjacent plays.

FY25 performance

According to ICICI Direct and company disclosures: ^[20]

• FY25 revenue: ₹27,218 million (₹2,721.8 crore), up 51% YoY
• FY25 EBITDA: ₹4,107 million, up 62% YoY
• EBITDA margin: improved to 15.1% from 14.1%
• FY25 PAT: ₹2,934 million, up 60% YoY, with PAT margin at 10.8%
• Order book: ₹65,969 million (~₹6,597 crore) as of 31 March 2025

Screener and Business Standard data also show:

• 5‑year sales CAGR: ~49%
• 5‑year profit CAGR: ~95%
• Return on equity: ~11%
• Return on capital employed: ~14% ^[21]

H1 FY26: growth accelerates, margins expand

In FY26 so far, growth has stayed strong: ^[22]

• Q1 FY26:
  • Revenue: ₹6,735 million, up 34% YoY
  • EBITDA margin: 16.8%
  • PAT margin: 11.1%
  • Order book: ₹74,011 million
• Q2 FY26:
  • Revenue: ₹9,062 million (₹906.2 crore), up 58% YoY
  • EBITDA margin: 16.3% (vs 14.4% in Q2 FY25)
  • PAT margin: 13.4% (vs 10.5% a year ago)
  • Order book: ₹80,994 million (~₹8,099 crore)

The order book now stands at roughly 3x FY25 revenue, giving multi‑year revenue visibility if execution holds. ^[23]

The flip side: net working capital days have crept higher (various analyst notes and calls put this in the 100–120‑day zone across FY25–H1 FY26), a central concern in the recent sell‑off and a key lever to watch over the next few quarters. ^[24]

Strategic bets: OSAT, advanced PCBs and space‑tech

Kaynes is not just an EMS (electronics manufacturing services) assembler anymore; it is explicitly positioning itself as a design‑led, high‑value electronics and semiconductor platform.

Major growth initiatives:

• OSAT (Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test):
  • A new OSAT facility in Sanand, Gujarat is ramping up, with commercial operations slated around end‑2025. ^[25]
  • Kaynes Semicon has shipped India’s first commercially packaged multi‑chip module, delivering 900 intelligent power modules to U.S.‑based Alpha & Omega Semiconductor – and is reported as the first Indian OSAT company with a paying advanced‑packaging customer. ^[26]
  • Jefferies estimates OSAT revenue could scale to around ₹35 billion annually by FY30, with OSAT becoming a major structural growth driver. ^[27]
• Advanced PCB & components:
  • Subsidiary Kaynes Circuits India plans to invest about ₹4,995 crore in a components and PCB facility in Thoothukudi, Tamil Nadu, producing 74‑layer PCBs, HDI and flexible PCBs, high‑performance laminates, camera modules and harnesses. ^[28]
• Semiconductor ecosystem partnerships:
  • Kaynes Semicon has signed MoUs with 3rdiTech, SPARSHIQ and other partners at SEMICON India to support advanced vision systems and semiconductor development in India, deepening its role in the domestic chip ecosystem. ^[29]
• Satellites and drones:
  • Elara’s recent report highlights Kaynes’ ambitions in satellites and UAVs, targeting attitude‑determination systems, micro‑satellites and drone command‑and‑control systems, with meaningful capex earmarked over the next 2–3 years. ^[30]

This entire push is backed by a massive capex plan of about ₹110 billion (₹11,000 crore) through FY29, spread across OSAT (~29%), PCB (~14%), EMS expansion, new projects such as HDI PCBs, camera modules, copper‑clad laminates and incremental working capital. ^[31]

Execution here will probably determine whether Kaynes ultimately deserves its “potential multibagger” tag or becomes another over‑promised capex story.

What brokerages and models are saying after the crash

Analyst coverage has not turned uniformly bearish. In fact, many large brokerages still see sizable upside – but with more explicit governance and cash‑flow caveats.

Global brokers: JPMorgan, Macquarie, Jefferies

• JPMorgan
  • Views Kaynes as now the cheapest stock in its entire coverage universe on a price‑to‑earnings‑to‑growth (PEG) basis, at around 0.7x PEG after the correction. ^[32]
  • Retains an “overweight” rating with a target price of ₹7,550, implying almost 100% upside from ~₹3,800–4,000 levels. ^[33]
  • At the same time, it explicitly warns that investors should not try to bottom‑fish, given stretched working capital and the lack of a near‑term catalyst before Q3 numbers. ^[34]
• Macquarie
  • Keeps an “outperform” rating with a target around ₹7,700 – again nearly 100% upside – but says Kaynes must prove improved cash flows, organic growth and better internal controls before confidence fully normalises. ^[35]
• Jefferies
  • Recently raised its target to ₹7,780 while maintaining a Buy rating. ^[36]
  • Expects a 51% EPS CAGR over FY25–FY28, driven by EMS growth and an OSAT ramp from around FY27, and projects OSAT sales of ₹35 billion by FY30. ^[37]

Domestic brokers and consensus targets

• Elara Securities (25 November 2025) upgraded Kaynes to Buy, keeping a target of ₹7,670, based on 60x September FY27E P/E, and forecasting: ^[38]
  • Revenue to rise from ₹27.2 billion in FY25 to ₹42.6b / ₹62.2b / ₹85.7b in FY26E / FY27E / FY28E
  • EBITDA margin expanding from 15.1% in FY25 to ~17.4% by FY28E
  • EPS climbing from ₹45.8 (FY25) to ₹74.1 / ₹104 / ₹151.5 in FY26E–28E
• Prabhudas Lilladher and Motilal Oswal have also carried Buy / Accumulate / Hold‑type calls through 2025 with targets typically in the ₹7,300–8,200 zone, though many of those were issued before the latest correction and may be under review. ^[39]
• Trendlyne aggregates nine long‑term analyst targets from three brokers and puts the average target at about ₹8,221, implying over 100% upside from last traded levels (~₹4,080). ^[40]

Algorithmic and technical forecasts

• TradingView’s analyst‑consensus page lists an average target around ₹6,930 with a range from ₹3,750 (bear case) to ₹8,478 (bull case). ^[41]
• WalletInvestor, which uses purely quantitative models, projects highly volatile paths but suggests possible levels in the ₹5,500–8,000+ band across 2026–2030, with sharp up‑and‑down swings rather than a smooth glide‑path. ^[42]

These quantitative forecasts should be treated as mathy “what‑if” scenarios, not as a replacement for fundamental analysis or regulated advice.

Technical view and F&O dynamics

On the purely technical side, several commentators now see the stock as deeply oversold but still fragile:

• NDTV Profit notes that Kaynes’ 14‑day RSI had sunk to around 20, putting it firmly in oversold territory after a drop of roughly 40% in about a month. ^[43]
• An earlier NDTV report had called out an RSI near 27 even before the latest leg of selling. ^[44]
• A Livemint trading note from Mehta Equities’ technical desk recommends Kaynes as a short‑term “buy on dips” with:
  • CMP around ₹3,807
  • Stop‑loss at ₹3,700
  • Upside targets of ₹4,100 and ₹4,200 based on higher‑low formations and support at ₹3,700. ^[45]

Separately, Economic Times’ technical coverage has highlighted:

• Support zones in the ₹3,350–3,500 band
• Resistance in the ₹4,500–5,400 region
• A still‑negative MACD and price trading below key moving averages, signalling that the intermediate trend remains weak despite the bounce. ^[46]

All of this is layered on top of a dense derivatives book. With Kaynes in F&O ban, traders can’t build fresh positions in futures and options until open interest drops below 80% of MWPL – a factor that can temporarily mute speculative flows even as cash‑market investors step in. ^[47]

Valuation after the fall: premium growth at a (relative) discount

Pulling it together:

• At around ₹3,900–4,000, Kaynes trades at roughly 71x trailing consolidated EPS and about 5.8x book value. ^[48]
• On Elara’s FY26E EPS of ₹74.1, that implies a forward P/E in the mid‑50s; on FY28E EPS of ₹151.5, the multiple compresses further if growth plays out as forecast. ^[49]
• The stock’s one‑year price CAGR is about –40%, even as sales and profits have grown at 45–60% CAGRs over the last few years. ^[50]

So the current setup looks like:

• Growth: Very strong top‑line and earnings momentum with a large, diversified order book and optionality from OSAT, advanced PCBs, space‑tech and satellites. ^[51]
• Valuation: Still expensive vs broader markets, but cheaper than it has been at almost any point since listing, and arguably cheap relative to growth if you trust the numbers. ^[52]
• Risk: Governance and working‑capital concerns are no longer theoretical; they have already destroyed a chunk of market cap, and investors are demanding visible, sustained improvements, not just reconciliations. ^[53]

In other words, Kaynes has shifted from a “priced for perfection” story to a “show me” story.

Key risks to monitor

Before anyone thinks in terms of “multibagger”, there are real risks that could derail the thesis:

1. Governance and reporting quality
   • The admitted reporting lapse, upcoming auditor change and multiple exchange clarifications mean governance will be under a microscope. Any further inconsistencies could trigger another trust shock. ^[54]
2. Working capital and cash flows
   • High working‑capital days (over 100 in some periods) and large receivables – especially from smart meter contracts – need to normalise for the growth to translate into robust free cash flow. ^[55]
3. Capex and OSAT execution risk
   • The ₹110‑billion capex plan is ambitious. Delays in OSAT/PCB ramp‑up or subsidy disbursements, or global semiconductor cycles turning down, could pressure returns and balance sheet leverage. ^[56]
4. Sector and customer concentration
   • While diversified across industrial, automotive, EV, aerospace, railways and IoT, Kaynes is still heavily exposed to export demand, government programmes and a handful of large clients, especially in smart meters and strategic electronics. ^[57]
5. Volatility and derivatives‑driven swings
   • With high F&O interest and a retail‑heavy shareholder base, price action may remain far more volatile than fundamentals alone would suggest. ^[58]

What this all means for investors

As of 9 December 2025, Kaynes Technology sits at an interesting – and uncomfortable – intersection:

• The business case (India‑plus‑one electronics, EMS growth, first‑mover OSAT, deepening semiconductor ecosystem, space‑tech optionality) remains compelling and is backed by rapid revenue and earnings growth plus a thick order book. ^[59]
• The market narrative, however, has shifted from pure growth euphoria to tough questions about transparency, working capital and execution discipline.
• Brokerages are largely still positive, with most big names retaining Buy/Overweight/Outperform ratings and targets in the ₹7,500–8,000 zone – but those targets now come with unusually explicit warnings about governance and cash‑flow risks. ^[60]

For short‑term traders, the stock looks technically oversold with defined support zones and multiple tactical buy‑on‑dips calls – but volatility, F&O bans and headline risk make it strictly a high‑risk playground. ^[61]

For long‑term investors, Kaynes is starting to resemble a classic high‑beta quality‑growth test:

• If management delivers on governance clean‑up, working‑capital improvement and OSAT/PCB execution, today’s valuation reset could, in hindsight, look like a painful but attractive entry zone.
• If not, premium multiples plus heavy capex could amplify downside in any further disappointment.

Either way, this is not a low‑risk, sleep‑well‑at‑night compounder at current volatility levels. Anyone considering the stock should treat this article as information only, not as a recommendation, and make decisions in consultation with a SEBI‑registered investment adviser or financial planner who understands their risk profile, time horizon and portfolio context.

References

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