KSS Stock Outlook 2025: Kohl’s Turnaround Story, Latest News, Forecasts and Analysis as of December 7, 2025

Kohl’s Corporation (NYSE: KSS) has turned into one of 2025’s most unpredictable retail stocks. After a brutal start to the year and a “meme‑stock‑style” summer spike, the shares are now trading near their 52‑week highs following a surprise profit, a raised outlook, and the appointment of a permanent CEO. Yet Wall Street’s consensus still leans bearish, and short interest remains elevated.

This article pulls together the latest news, forecasts, and analyses on KSS stock up to December 7, 2025.

Key takeaways

KSS stock is trading around $23 today, near its 52‑week high and up roughly 50%+ over the past year, with a 52‑week range of $6.04 to $25.22. ^[1]
Q3 FY 2025 delivered a surprise profit and revenue beat, prompting Kohl’s to raise its full‑year EPS guidance to $1.25–$1.45 despite falling sales. ^[2]
New CEO Michael J. Bender, a long‑time director and former interim CEO, has been formally promoted to lead the turnaround. ^[3]
Analyst consensus remains cautious: around 11–16 covering analysts rate KSS a “Sell”/“Reduce” with average 12‑month price targets in the mid‑teens, well below the current price. ^[4]
Some quantitative models see deep value: a widely cited DCF model pegs fair value near $65 per share, implying KSS is significantly undervalued on long‑term fundamentals. ^[5]
The stock is heavily shorted and extremely volatile, with short interest above 25% of float and dozens of 5%+ daily moves over the last year. ^[6]

Where KSS stock stands now

As of the latest close before December 7, 2025, Kohl’s stock trades just above $23 per share, after opening the day around $22.75 and moving in a range of roughly $22.55–$23.50. Over the past year, KSS has delivered a 50%+ gain, and its 52‑week range of $6.04–$25.22 shows just how violent the swings have been. ^[7]

Trading volumes remain elevated. One data service estimates average daily volume at around 5.5 million shares, and notes that KSS has experienced more than 50 daily moves greater than 5% over the last year, underlining its high‑beta, trader‑driven profile. ^[8]

On fundamental valuation, KSS is not obviously expensive by traditional metrics. Recent screens put its price‑to‑earnings ratio around 13x, a market capitalization near $2.5 billion, and a beta above 1.4, placing it on the riskier end of the large‑cap retail spectrum. ^[9]

At the same time, short interest is very high. A recent Form 4 summary and market data compilation show short interest near 28% of the float, echoing mid‑year estimates that nearly half of tradeable shares were sold short during a July short squeeze. ^[10]

Q3 2025: Surprise profit and a raised outlook

The latest leg of the rally started on November 25, 2025, when Kohl’s released its third‑quarter fiscal 2025 results.

According to the company’s official earnings release:

Net sales fell 2.8% year over year to about $3.4 billion, with comparable sales down 1.7%.
Total revenue (including credit‑card and other revenue) came in around $3.58 billion, slightly below the prior‑year period. ^[11]
Gross margin expanded to 39.6%, up 51 basis points, as the company relied less on clearance markdowns and improved inventory discipline. ^[12]
GAAP net income was $8 million, or $0.07 per diluted share, while adjusted EPS was $0.10, down from $0.20 a year earlier but far better than the consensus expectation for a loss. ^[13]

Analysts had been braced for a negative quarter. One real‑time earnings summary notes that Kohl’s beat consensus EPS estimates by nearly $0.30 and topped revenue expectations by roughly $200 million, prompting a sharp re‑rating of near‑term earnings expectations. ^[14]

Despite lower sales, Kohl’s also showed improved cash generation and balance‑sheet metrics:

Year‑to‑date operating cash flow reached about $630 million, versus roughly $52 million in the prior year period.
Inventory declined around 5% year over year.
Short‑term borrowing under the revolver dropped to approximately $45 million, down more than $700 million from a year earlier. ^[15]

This combination—lower sales but better margins, stronger cash flow, and reduced reliance on short‑term debt—is the backbone of Kohl’s claim that its 2025 turnaround is “on track.”

Raised 2025 guidance and a reinstated dividend

On the back of the Q3 results, Kohl’s raised its full‑year 2025 guidance. The company now expects: ^[16]

Net sales down 3.5% to 4% for the year (a smaller decline than earlier forecasts).
Comparable sales down 2.5% to 3%.
Adjusted operating margin in the 3.1%–3.2% range.
Adjusted diluted EPS between $1.25 and $1.45, significantly above the early‑2025 outlook, which had guided to as little as $0.10 per share. ^[17]

Kohl’s also reaffirmed its capital allocation policy:

Capital expenditures around $400 million for the year, largely to fund store refreshes, omnichannel investments, and the expansion of shop‑in‑shop concepts such as Sephora. ^[18]
A quarterly dividend of $0.125 per share, declared on November 12 and payable on December 24, implying an annualized payout of $0.50 and a dividend yield in the ~2% range at current prices. The payout ratio is currently under 30% of projected earnings, leaving room for debt reduction and selective reinvestment. ^[19]

For investors who remember the gloomy guidance from March, the new outlook is a meaningful reset.

Leadership change: Michael J. Bender becomes permanent CEO

Alongside the Q3 release, Kohl’s announced that Michael J. Bender—previously interim CEO since May 1, 2025 and a board member since 2019—has been appointed permanent Chief Executive Officer, effective immediately. ^[20]

Bender is a retail veteran with roughly three decades of industry experience, including senior roles in operations and supply chain at major retailers. His promotion follows a period of turbulence at the top: Kohl’s has cycled through multiple chief executives in recent years, including the removal of a prior CEO earlier in 2025 over a personal relationship with a vendor. ^[21]

Under Bender, the company has emphasized:

Tight inventory management and gross‑margin protection.
Omnichannel execution, including better integration between Kohl’s more than 1,100 stores across 49 states and its digital channels. ^[22]
Focus on key partnerships and private labels—notably the Sephora at Kohl’s concept and exclusive brands—to differentiate from mid‑market department store peers. ^[23]

The CEO change gives investors a clearer face to attach to the turnaround narrative, though the underlying structural challenges of the business remain.

2025 so far: from guidance shock to meme‑stock mania

KSS’s 2025 story is best understood as a sequence of sharp regime changes.

March: guidance shock and a brutal sell‑off

In March 2025, Kohl’s issued a weak full‑year forecast, calling for a mid‑single‑digit sales decline and EPS guidance that at the time was as low as $0.10–$0.60, far below what the market had been expecting. The stock plunged more than 20% in a single session, and headlines questioned whether Kohl’s had a viable long‑term growth plan. ^[24]

July: meme‑stock‑style short squeeze

On July 22, 2025, KSS suddenly doubled at the open, triggering trading halts as retail traders piled into the stock and its options. Reuters reported that shares briefly touched $21.23, up about 100% intraday, before settling to a gain of roughly 39% later in the session. Trading volume soared to around 183 million shares, roughly 25 times the recent average. ^[25]

At the time, nearly half of the free float was reportedly sold short, making KSS an ideal candidate for a short squeeze reminiscent of the 2021 meme‑stock craze. Commentators were quick to point out that this price action was driven far more by positioning and speculative flows than by any new fundamental news. ^[26]

Late November: earnings‑driven rally

By late November, the story had shifted again. After Kohl’s reported its Q3 beat and raised guidance, Reuters noted that the shares surged as much as 36% intraday as investors reassessed the likelihood of a successful margin‑led turnaround. ^[27]

Subsequent commentary highlighted that, while revenue is still contracting, three consecutive quarters of outperformance versus management’s internal plan, coupled with improving cash flow and inventory discipline, have helped restore some confidence—at least among traders.

Fresh 10‑Q and SWOT analysis: what the fundamentals show

Kohl’s most recent Form 10‑Q and a widely circulated SWOT analysis give a more nuanced picture of the underlying business. ^[28]

Strengths:

Omnichannel reach: Kohl’s operates approximately 1,150 stores across 49 states and has built a meaningful digital operation, with online sales representing about 28% of net sales in Q3 2025. ^[29]
Inventory and cost control: Inventory is down around 5% year over year, and cost of goods sold plus SG&A expenses have declined in absolute terms, enabling margin expansion despite lower revenue. ^[30]

Weaknesses:

Declining top line: Net sales were down 2.8% in Q3 and about 4% for the first nine months of the year, signaling erosion in traffic and transaction volume. ^[31]
SG&A deleverage: While costs are lower in dollar terms, SG&A as a percentage of revenue has ticked up, highlighting ongoing operating‑leverage pressure. ^[32]

Opportunities:

Expansion of private labels and exclusive brands, which typically carry higher margins.
Growth of Sephora shop‑in‑shops and other partnerships that can attract younger and higher‑value customers. ^[33]

Threats:

Intense competition from off‑price retailers, mass merchants, and e‑commerce giants.
Sensitivity to economic downturns and shifts in discretionary spending, given Kohl’s middle‑income target demographic. ^[34]

The picture that emerges is not of a company in free fall, but of a mature retailer trying to shrink into profitability while modernizing its format.

Wall Street’s KSS stock forecast: consensus is still skeptical

Despite the recent rally, Wall Street consensus remains cautious.

A forecast aggregation from StockAnalysis shows that the 11 analysts currently modeled on that platform give KSS an average 12‑month target price of $15.18, with a range from $7 on the low end to $23 on the high end. That implies roughly 30–35% downside from the current ~$23 share price. ^[35]

The consensus rating is “Sell”, and recommendation trends over the past year show a mix of Hold, Sell, and Strong Sell, with no Strong Buys. ^[36]
Analysts collectively expect revenue to fall about 7–8% in FY 2025 (to roughly $15.0 billion) and then decline slightly again in FY 2026. ^[37]
EPS is projected to rise from about $0.98 to $1.40 this year, then edge down to around $1.35 next year, suggesting that margin gains may not fully offset continued pressure on sales. ^[38]

MarketBeat’s compilation of broker ratings paints a similar picture: among roughly 16 analysts, there is one Strong Buy, one Buy, eight Holds, and six Sell‑equivalent ratings, for an overall consensus of “Reduce” and an average target also clustered in the mid‑teens. ^[39]

In short, analysts generally see KSS as a low‑growth, structurally challenged business that the recent rally has pushed above fair value, even after the turnaround progress.

Valuation models: deep value or value trap?

Not all models agree with the Street’s pessimism.

A detailed valuation page from Simply Wall St, using a discounted cash flow (DCF) approach, estimates KSS’s fair value around $65.36 per share, implying that the stock is trading at a roughly 65% discount to its modeled intrinsic value. ^[40]

The same analysis notes:

A P/E ratio of about 13.3x, versus a peer average above 20x and a global multiline retail industry average near 19.9x, suggesting KSS is cheap relative to both its sector and the broader market.
A P/E “fair” ratio closer to 20x based on forecast earnings growth and margins, implying potential re‑rating if the turnaround sticks. ^[41]

These models, however, rely on assumptions about long‑term cash‑flow stability and growth. If sales continue to drift lower or margins fail to hold at current levels, the “deep value” case weakens quickly. That tension—between statistical cheapness and structural risk—is exactly what divides bullish and bearish analysts.

Momentum vs fundamentals: a split view on KSS stock

Recent commentary reveals a striking split between momentum‑oriented strategies and fundamental caution.

The bullish momentum case

A widely read Zacks‑powered article currently lists Kohl’s as a “Great Momentum Stock”, assigning it a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and a Momentum Style Score of “A”. ^[42]

Key points from that view:

KSS shares have dramatically outperformed both the S&P 500 and the broader retail sector over the past month, quarter, and year.
Over the last two months, four full‑year EPS estimates were revised upward and none downward, raising the consensus estimate from about $0.66 to $1.24 before management’s own guidance increase. ^[43]
Trading volume has consistently run above its 20‑day average during up‑moves, a classic sign of momentum confirmation. ^[44]

From this perspective, KSS looks like a short‑term winner: earnings revisions are moving in the right direction, technicals are strong, and higher‑frequency traders continue to reward cost‑cutting and guidance beats.

The skeptical fundamental view

On the other side, a recent StockStory/Finviz piece detailed a 7.2% intraday drop on December 3, 2025, attributing the move to renewed concerns about Kohl’s long‑term business health despite the Q3 beat. ^[45]

That analysis emphasized:

Analysts’ concerns that Kohl’s lacks a clear strategy to return to sustainable revenue growth, even if margins are improving.
A consensus among 11 analysts rating the stock a “Sell”, reflecting skepticism that cost‑cutting alone can offset falling sales.
The extreme volatility profile, with more than 50 daily moves greater than 5% over the past year, which can magnify both upside and downside for investors. ^[46]

In addition, many fundamental investors remain wary of:

High short interest, still near 30% of float. ^[47]
A recent insider sale: on December 4, CFO Jill Timm sold 25,000 shares at an average price of $22.75, for proceeds of about $568,750, though the transaction was executed under a pre‑planned Rule 10b5‑1 trading plan and she retains over 300,000 shares. ^[48]

To skeptics, KSS is a classic value trap candidate: optically cheap and occasionally explosive on good news, but structurally challenged in a slow‑growth, highly competitive segment of retail.

Key risks and what to watch into 2026

For investors tracking KSS from here, several risk factors and signposts stand out:

Structural retail headwinds
Mid‑market department stores face ongoing traffic pressure from online competitors, off‑price chains, and big‑box retailers. Kohl’s must prove it can stabilize sales, not just manage decline. ^[49]
Revenue trajectory vs margin gains
The current turnaround is heavily margin‑driven. If promotions ramp up or consumer spending softens, gross margin gains could reverse quickly, pressuring earnings. ^[50]
Balance sheet and interest expense
Kohl’s has reduced short‑term borrowings but issued new 10% senior secured notes due 2030, locking in relatively expensive long‑term funding. Maintaining strong cash flow to service debt is critical. ^[51]
Short interest and sentiment swings
Elevated short interest can fuel further squeezes on good news—but it also reflects lingering doubts. Large one‑day moves, in either direction, will likely continue. ^[52]
Execution of Bender’s strategy
Investors will monitor how quickly new CEO Michael Bender can convert early cost wins into sustainable traffic and sales growth, especially through Sephora, loyalty programs, and digital initiatives. ^[53]

Bottom line: how to read KSS stock as of December 7, 2025

As of early December 2025, KSS stock sits at the crossroads of a tactical turnaround and a strategic question mark:

On the one hand, earnings, cash flow, and margins are improving, guidance has been raised, and a seasoned CEO now has the mandate to keep pushing the transformation.
On the other, sales remain in decline, the broader department‑store model is under pressure, and most Wall Street analysts still believe the stock is ahead of its fundamentals after the recent rally.

Quantitative models that focus on cash‑flow potential see substantial upside, while broker consensus and high short interest flag ongoing structural risk. That tension is exactly why KSS remains both volatile and closely watched.

For now, KSS looks less like a sleepy income stock and more like a high‑beta, event‑driven turnaround play—one where earnings prints, guidance updates, and any shift in consumer demand can move the price dramatically.