Lennar (LEN) Stock Jumps 6.6% as Millrose Exchange Offer Nears Finish Line

Lennar Corporation’s Class A shares (NYSE: LEN) surged on Tuesday, November 25, 2025, as investors reacted to fresh developments around the company’s Millrose Properties exchange offer and growing hopes that lower interest rates could eventually revive housing demand.

As of Tuesday’s close, Lennar stock finished at $131.06, up about $8.10 (+6.6%) from Monday’s close of $122.96. The stock traded in a wide intraday range between roughly $122.13 and $131.60, on volume of around 12–15 million shares — roughly three to four times its typical daily turnover. ^[1]

Even after today’s rally, LEN remains about 26% below its 52‑week high near $177, though it now sits roughly one‑third above its 52‑week low around $98. ^[2]

Below is a closer look at what moved the stock today and what investors will be watching into December.

1. Today’s Move: A Sharp Rebound in a Beaten‑Down Homebuilder

Lennar’s 6.6% jump stands out in what has been a challenging year for homebuilder stocks. Over the last 12 months, Lennar shares have fallen more than 20% from their peaks as higher mortgage rates, rising inventories, and aggressive incentives weighed on margins and investor sentiment. ^[3]

By contrast, Tuesday’s session reflected:

Strong buying interest ahead of the guaranteed-delivery deadline for Lennar’s Millrose exchange offer. ^[4]
A broader risk‑on mood in housing‑related names as markets continue to price in potential Federal Reserve rate cuts in the coming months. ^[5]

The move also coincides with elevated trading activity: MarketBeat data show roughly 11.9 million shares trading hands on Tuesday, versus an average volume around 3.7 million shares. ^[6]

2. Millrose Exchange Offer: Oversubscribed and Nearly Done

The most immediate catalyst for Lennar’s stock this week is the company’s exchange offer involving Millrose Properties, Inc. (NYSE: MRP).

On November 24, Lennar reported preliminary results showing that its offer to exchange up to 33,298,764 shares of Millrose Class A stock (about 20% of Millrose’s outstanding shares) for Lennar Class A shares was oversubscribed. ^[7]

Key details from the company’s press release:

Final exchange ratio: For each Lennar Class A share accepted, stockholders receive 4.1367 shares of Millrose Class A stock. ^[8]
Shares tendered: About 91,972,752 Lennar Class A shares were validly tendered and not withdrawn, including over 31 million via guaranteed delivery. ^[9]
Shares accepted: Based on the final exchange ratio, Lennar plans to accept roughly 8,049,596 tendered Lennar shares, exchanging them for the 33.3 million Millrose shares. ^[10]
Proration: Because the deal was oversubscribed, only about 7.97% of tendered shares are expected to be accepted, subject to final proration. Odd‑lot holders (fewer than 100 shares) who tendered all of their shares are exempt from proration. ^[11]
Timing: The exchange offer formally expired at midnight New York time on November 21, but investors using guaranteed delivery mechanisms have until 5:00 p.m. on November 25, 2025 — today — to complete their deliveries. Lennar says it will announce the final proration factor “promptly” after the deadline. ^[12]

Why the Exchange Offer Matters for LEN

For shareholders who did not tender, the exchange offer effectively acts as a targeted share repurchase:

Lennar is retiring just over 8 million LEN shares, reducing its public float.
The company is simultaneously handing out Millrose shares it already owns, further separating Millrose’s multifamily portfolio from Lennar’s core homebuilding balance sheet.

A smaller share count can boost per‑share metrics like earnings per share (EPS), all else equal, and may help support the stock over time if operating performance stabilizes. At the same time, the move reduces Lennar’s direct exposure to one part of the rental market while allowing investors who participated in the offer to own Millrose directly.

Tuesday’s strong gain suggests markets are treating the preliminary exchange results — and the imminent completion of the process — as a net positive for capital allocation and balance‑sheet clarity.

3. Fundamentals Check: Q3 2025 Earnings and Q4 Guidance

Beyond the exchange mechanics, investors are still digesting Lennar’s fiscal third‑quarter 2025 results, released on September 18.

Q3 2025 Highlights (Quarter Ended August 31, 2025)

According to Lennar’s earnings release: ^[13]

EPS (diluted):
- Reported: $2.29 per share
- Adjusted (excluding tech investment mark‑to‑market gains): $2.00 per share
Net earnings:$591 million, down from $1.2 billion a year earlier.
Total revenue:$8.8 billion, down about 6% year‑on‑year.
Deliveries:21,584 homes, roughly flat versus 21,516 a year prior.
New orders:23,004 homes, up about 12%, pointing to ongoing demand despite affordability pressures.
Average selling price:$383,000, down from $422,000 last year as Lennar leaned into price cuts and incentives.
Home sales gross margin:17.5%, down from 22.5% in the prior‑year quarter, reflecting heavier incentives and higher land costs.

Management highlighted that elevated mortgage rates forced the company to:

Use more incentives and mortgage rate buydowns to keep sales paces steady.
Accept lower average selling prices and tighter margins.
Focus relentlessly on cycle times, achieving a record 126‑day build cycle, which helps free up capital and offset some margin pressure. ^[14]

Q4 2025 Guidance

For the fourth quarter of 2025, Lennar guided to: ^[15]

New orders: 20,000–21,000 homes
Deliveries: 22,000–23,000 homes
Average selling price: $380,000–$390,000
Home sales gross margin: ~17.5% (flat vs. Q3)
SG&A: 7.8%–8.0% of home sales
Financial Services earnings: $130–$135 million

In other words, Lennar expects volume to hold up, but no major margin relief in the near term — consistent with a soft, incentive‑heavy housing market.

4. Leadership Shift: Co‑CEO Jonathan Jaffe to Retire

Another recent corporate development investors are weighing is the upcoming departure of longtime executive Jonathan Jaffe, currently Co‑CEO and President.

On November 14, Lennar announced that Jaffe will retire effective December 31, 2025, stepping down from both his executive role and the board after a 42‑year career at the company. ^[16]

Key points from that announcement:

Stuart Miller, currently Executive Chairman and Co‑CEO, will remain Executive Chairman and become sole Chief Executive Officer, with no plan to appoint a new Co‑CEO.
The company framed Jaffe’s retirement as part of a broader effort to streamline leadership and reduce costs, aligning the organization structure with its push for more affordable and attainable homes. ^[17]

For the stock, the transition underscores that:

Lennar is doubling down on a leaner, more centralized leadership model, with Miller’s long‑standing influence even more prominent.
Investors will be watching closely in 2026 to see whether this structural change translates into tighter execution, lower overhead, and improved margins in a tough environment.

5. Housing Backdrop: Flat Prices, Incentives, and Rate‑Cut Hopes

Lennar doesn’t operate in a vacuum. Its stock moves are tightly linked to the broader U.S. housing cycle.

Recent housing data and analysis point to a market that is soft but not collapsing:

Nationwide, home prices rose just 0.1% year‑over‑year between October 2024 and October 2025, according to Zillow’s Home Value Index — a sharp deceleration from 2.4% growth the prior year. ^[18]
About 105 of the 300 largest U.S. housing markets are now seeing year‑over‑year home‑price declines, with particular softness in Sun Belt markets such as parts of Texas, Florida, Arizona and Colorado — regions where Lennar has significant exposure. ^[19]
Builders across the country are offering steep incentives and price cuts — with some industry reports noting record shares of builders discounting homes and using rate buydowns to move inventory. ^[20]

The flip side: lower lumber prices and moderating construction costs may ultimately help stabilize margins once demand normalizes. Analysts have also flagged that potential Fed rate cuts could gradually ease mortgage rates, improving affordability and lifting new‑home demand over the next 12–24 months. ^[21]

That combination — soft near‑term fundamentals but a plausible path to better affordability — is one reason homebuilder stocks can react sharply to any incremental news about inflation, interest‑rate expectations, or sector‑specific catalysts like Lennar’s exchange offer.

6. Wall Street View and Valuation: “Hold” With a Discount to Sector

As of Tuesday’s close, several data providers characterize Lennar as moderately valued relative to its peers:

P/E ratio (trailing): Around 12.8–13.0×, vs. a mid‑teens average for the construction/homebuilding sector, suggesting the stock trades at a discount to sector averages despite its scale. ^[22]
Price‑to‑book: Roughly 1.4×, implying the shares change hands at modestly above the book value of Lennar’s assets and equity. ^[23]
Dividend yield: Around 1.5%–1.7%, with a payout ratio under 20%, leaving room for ongoing buybacks and potential future dividend growth. ^[24]
Market cap: Approximately $33 billion, placing Lennar firmly in large‑cap territory. ^[25]

According to MarketBeat, the consensus analyst rating on LEN is currently “Hold”, with an average price target near $121.75, implying modest downside from current levels after today’s rally. Analysts, on average, expect Lennar’s earnings to grow in the coming year, but are cautious about persistent affordability constraints and ongoing margin pressure. ^[26]

Short interest is also notable: about 6.5% of Lennar’s float has been sold short, and short interest has risen recently, indicating some investors are still betting against the stock even as others see value at these levels. ^[27]

7. Institutional Signals: Berkshire Hathaway’s Quiet Shift Toward Lennar

Another storyline in the background is Berkshire Hathaway’s evolving stance on homebuilders.

A recent analysis of Berkshire’s Q3 2025 13F filing shows that Warren Buffett’s team: ^[28]

Exited D.R. Horton (DHI) entirely, selling roughly 1.485 million shares (about $191.5 million).
Added to Lennar, increasing its stake to around 7.2 million LEN shares, worth just over $900 million at quarter‑end.

HousingWire’s read is that Berkshire hasn’t abandoned housing; it has refined its exposure, favoring Lennar’s:

More flexible, “land‑light” strategy, which leans on options and shorter‑duration land deals rather than long‑dated speculative bets.
Focus on systems, efficiency and incentives management — matching pace and pricing to a soft market without letting inventory balloon. ^[29]

While one quarter’s 13F is not a buy signal by itself, Berkshire’s increased allocation acts as a high‑profile vote of confidence in Lennar’s playbook for a choppy late‑cycle housing market.

8. Key Things for Investors to Watch Next

With Tuesday’s sharp rally in the books, here are the main upcoming catalysts and risk factors traders and longer‑term investors will be monitoring:

Final Exchange Offer Results
- Lennar is expected to publish final proration figures and confirm the exact number of shares retired once the guaranteed delivery window closes. Any surprises in the final count or mechanics could nudge the stock. ^[30]
Fiscal Q4 2025 Earnings (Mid‑December)
- Third‑party calendars currently point to a mid‑December earnings release, with some data providers flagging dates around December 17–18, 2025, though Lennar’s own investor‑relations site has not yet posted a formal date. ^[31]
- Investors will be looking to see whether Q4 deliveries, margins, and order trends align with the guidance set in September — and how management frames 2026 demand and pricing.
Mortgage Rates and Fed Policy
- Any shift in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts could move mortgage rates and, by extension, homebuilder stocks like Lennar. Lower rates would generally support demand but may already be partially priced into recent rebounds. ^[32]
Execution on Cost Control and Incentives
- With incentives and price cuts now “table stakes” across the industry, Lennar’s ability to maintain a ~17.5% gross margin while keeping build times short is critical. If margins slip further, today’s valuation discount could widen; if they stabilize or improve, the stock may have room to re‑rate higher over time. ^[33]
Leadership Transition in 2026
- Once Jonathan Jaffe’s retirement takes effect and Stuart Miller assumes sole CEO duties, investors will look for signs of organizational simplification, strategic clarity, and perhaps updated long‑term targets. ^[34]

9. Bottom Line: A Big Day for LEN, but a Complex Setup

On November 25, 2025, Lennar’s stock finally caught a strong bid, with shares jumping more than 6% as the Millrose exchange offer nears completion and market sentiment toward rate‑sensitive sectors shows tentative improvement.

Beneath the headline move, however, the investment case remains nuanced:

Lennar is a scale leader in U.S. homebuilding with improving operational efficiency.
The company is facing margin pressure, softer home‑price growth, and a heavy reliance on incentives.
Valuation is reasonable to slightly discounted versus the sector, while institutional players like Berkshire Hathaway are tilting in its favor — but analysts overall remain cautious, with a consensus “Hold” and price targets below today’s close. ^[35]

For now, Tuesday’s action underscores how quickly sentiment around a cyclical name like Lennar can shift when capital‑allocation moves, macro expectations, and sector headlines line up on the same day.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, tax, or financial advice. Stock market investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.