New York, Jan 12, 2026, 08:22 EST — Premarket
- Lithium prices in China surged following Beijing’s decision to cut export VAT rebates on batteries
- SQM climbed in U.S. premarket action, while other lithium-related stocks showed a mixed start to trading
- Traders are waiting to see if the lithium rally holds after the cash market absorbs the policy shift
Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile (SQM) edged up 0.5% to $74.40 during Monday’s U.S. premarket session.
Lithium prices in China surged to their highest in over two years after Beijing cut export tax rebates on battery products. The most-active lithium carbonate contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange hit its daily limit, rising 9% to 156,060 yuan a metric ton—its peak since November 2023. 1
Asia’s markets showed a split reaction. Chinese battery makers dropped amid concerns the rebate change could tighten controls on exports. Upstream lithium producers, on the other hand, surged on bets demand will accelerate. Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) fell as much as 4.8% in onshore trading. Meanwhile, Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium Group climbed up to 6% in Shenzhen. “The decline in Chinese battery stocks today appears to be a knee-jerk reaction,” said Gary Tan, portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments. 2
Spot prices followed the futures surge. Battery-grade lithium carbonate changed hands between 148,000 and 156,000 yuan per metric ton, with an average of 152,000 yuan—12,000 yuan higher than the previous trading day, Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) reported. SMM also noted over 20,000 lots of limit-up orders as the futures contract remained locked at its price ceiling. 3
SQM made headlines with a regulatory filing revealing it finalized the framework for its strategic tie-up with Chile’s state miner Codelco in the Salar de Atacama. The move involved folding Codelco’s Minera Tarar into SQM Salar and rebranding the unit as Nova Andino Litio. However, the merger still hinges on a pending Supreme Court ruling linked to an appeal. 4
Before the opening bell, other U.S.-listed lithium stocks showed a mixed picture. Albemarle gained 1.9% in early trading, whereas Lithium Americas dropped 2.4%. The Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF edged up just 0.2%.
The key factor here is the timing of policy changes, not another mine shutdown. A VAT export rebate acts as a tax refund, reducing exporters’ costs. When it’s cut, battery export prices usually rise. But so far, the market seems focused on rushing shipments ahead of the upcoming reduction.
But that bet can unravel fast. Should exporters deem margins too slim to push volume, or if battery producers cut back output instead of accelerating shipments, lithium demand could fall short of the bullish forecasts. SQM also faces deal risk in Chile, where the court process might alter the structure or timing.
Outside the sector, the mood was cautious heading into the U.S. open. Wall Street futures dipped amid renewed concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence. Investors are now focused on Tuesday’s U.S. consumer price inflation report as the next big macro event. “This time he spoke with no holds barred,” said Elias Haddad, global head of markets strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, commenting on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s firm response to political pressure. 5
Next on the radar: can China’s lithium contract stay above the 150,000-yuan mark when the daily limit resets? Traders will also be looking for Beijing to clarify the upcoming rebate changes before April. Over in the U.S., the January 13 CPI reading will likely sway risk appetite and commodity-linked stocks in the short term.
