London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) Share Price, News and Forecast: OpenAI ChatGPT Data Deal, Buybacks and Post‑Trade Strategy in Focus (13 December 2025)

London, 13 December 2025 — London Stock Exchange Group plc (LON: LSEG) is ending the week with investors juggling two big ideas at once: (1) LSEG as an “AI-era” data and analytics tollbooth, and (2) LSEG as a disciplined capital-return story that keeps leaning on buybacks while tightening its grip on post-trade economics.

Because today is Saturday, UK markets are closed; the latest available session was Friday, 12 December 2025. LSEG shares closed at 8,464p, up 0.81% on the day, after trading around the mid‑8,000p range in recent sessions. ^[1]

Below is what’s driving the conversation around LSEG stock as of 13 December 2025, plus what the latest consensus forecasts imply for 2026–2027.

LSEG share price snapshot (as of the last close: 12 December 2025)

LSEG ended Friday at 8,464p (+0.81%), with roughly ~1.32 million shares traded, according to daily historical pricing data. ^[2]

On valuation and “market profile” metrics often referenced by UK investors, the stock is currently framed by:

Market capitalisation: about £43.19bn
P/E ratio: about 23.10
Dividend yield: about 1.54%
52‑week range:8,096p to 12,185p ^[3]

That means the share price is ~30.5% below its 52‑week high (and ~4.5% above its 52‑week low), using the quoted range and the 12 December close. ^[4]

The big “current” story: LSEG’s OpenAI collaboration puts licensed market data inside ChatGPT

The headline development in early December was LSEG’s new collaboration with OpenAI aimed at making LSEG-licensed financial data and news accessible inside ChatGPT via an MCP (Model Context Protocol) connector. ^[5]

What’s actually being announced (in plain English):

A connector (think “secure plug-in”) that lets ChatGPT users who already hold valid LSEG credentials pull LSEG market data and news directly inside ChatGPT. ^[6]
A phased rollout expected to start from the week of 8 December 2025, beginning with LSEG Financial Analytics, then expanding to additional data categories and functionality. ^[7]
LSEG also said an initial 4,000 employees would receive ChatGPT Enterprise access as part of internal adoption and workflow automation. ^[8]

Strategically, this is not just a “cool integration.” It’s a signal flare for LSEG’s broader thesis: AI interfaces will become a major front-end for research and decision workflows, and LSEG wants its licensed content to be the fuel those interfaces run on—rather than being scraped, commoditized, or bypassed. Reuters explicitly framed the deal as part of LSEG’s push to embed AI across financial markets and distribute licensed data through AI platforms. ^[9]

Buybacks are not just a footnote: LSEG is actively shrinking the share count

LSEG has been steadily executing an ongoing repurchase programme, and the most recent regulatory updates show it’s still buying stock in meaningful size.

Latest buyback execution (regulatory announcement)

In a transaction disclosed 12 December 2025 (covering purchases on 11 December 2025), LSEG said it bought 274,419 ordinary shares as part of its buyback (conducted via Citigroup Global Markets Limited), at prices ranging from 8,286.00p to 8,462.00p, with an average price of 8,366.59p. The shares are intended for cancellation, reducing the number of shares in issue (excluding treasury shares) to 511,560,218. ^[10]

This matters to equity investors because consistent cancellation can mechanically support earnings per share over time—especially when paired with margin expansion and recurring revenue growth.

The programme itself

LSEG previously announced the commencement of a share buyback programme of up to £1bn, with purchases executed through Citi, intended to run through to no later than late February 2026 (as described in the programme notice). ^[11]

Governance update: LSEG board changes announced on 4 December

LSEG also disclosed a board timetable update that may interest governance-focused investors:

Dominic Blakemore intends to step down from the Board after the April 2026 AGM (and has served as Chair of the Audit Committee since April 2020).
Lloyd Pitchford is set to succeed him as Audit Committee Chair after the AGM.
Martin Brand also plans to step down from the Board following the April 2026 AGM. ^[12]

These are planned transitions (not a sudden rupture), but board and audit committee leadership is something institutions track closely—especially for large data-and-infrastructure firms where operational resilience and controls are existential.

What the latest “core fundamentals” update said: Q3 2025 trading update still frames the outlook

While the early‑December headlines are about AI distribution and buyback execution, the most consequential fundamentals guidance in the recent cycle came from LSEG’s Q3 2025 Trading Update.

Key points LSEG emphasized:

Margin guidance raised: excluding the post-trade transaction impact, LSEG said it expects constant-currency EBITDA margins to increase by ~100 bps in FY2025 (top end of its range). It also said SwapClear revenue share changes have a retroactive 2025 effect that further enhances EBITDA margins by ~100 bps. ^[13]
Buybacks: LSEG described accelerated execution of an existing buyback and stated it intended to deploy a further £1bn in buybacks by the time of full-year results on 26 February 2026 (with around half expected to complete during 2025). ^[14]
Growth guidance reiterated: the company reiterated FY2025 guidance for 6.5%–7.5% organic constant-currency growth in Total Income (excluding recoveries). ^[15]

The post‑trade deal that reshapes economics (and why it’s not boring)

Alongside the Q3 update, LSEG announced a transaction that does two things: (1) brings major banks into ownership of a post‑trade unit, and (2) shifts a larger share of SwapClear economics to LSEG.

LSEG said 11 global banks would take a 20% stake in Post Trade Solutions for £170m, valuing the unit at £850m. It also disclosed that Post Trade Solutions generated £96m revenue and £16m normalised EBITDA in 2024. ^[16]

Separately (and more importantly for margins), LSEG said it would acquire an increased portion of the SwapClear revenue surplus: banks’ share reduces to 15% for 2025 (retroactive to 1 January 2025) and 10% from 2026, and the arrangement extends at 10% from 2035 until 2045. LSEG is paying £1.15bn for the change (split £0.9bn in 2025 and £0.25bn in 2026), with a potential additional payment up to £200m if growth targets are met. ^[17]

Reuters noted that when this package was announced in October, LSEG shares jumped sharply and management directly addressed investor concerns about whether AI and competition could pressure the business model, arguing much of LSEG’s data is “non‑replicable” and hinting at a deeper push into private markets data. ^[18]

Forecasts: what the analyst consensus says (and the numbers investors keep circling)

For forward-looking investors, LSEG’s own investor relations site hosts a consensus snapshot (dated 12 November 2025) compiled from estimates provided by third-party research analysts.

Analyst ratings and target price

Buy / Hold / Sell:17 / 1 / 0
Consensus target share price:12,244p
Closing share price at the time of that snapshot (11 Nov 2025):9,186p ^[19]

With the stock now at 8,464p (last close 12 Dec 2025), that 12,244p target implies roughly ~45% upside—but readers should treat that as consensus opinion, not a guarantee, and note the target snapshot date. ^[20]

Consensus financial outlook (2025–2027)

Selected consensus figures published by LSEG include:

Total Income (ex recoveries):£8,972m (2025E) → £9,549m (2026E) → £10,215m (2027E) ^[21]
Adjusted EBITDA margin (ex recoveries):50.3% (2025E) → 51.2% (2026E) → 51.6% (2027E) ^[22]
Adjusted basic EPS:415.8p (2025E) → 462.8p (2026E) → 517.2p (2027E) ^[23]
Dividend per share:144.2p (2025E) → 160.4p (2026E) → 179.1p (2027E) ^[24]

The same consensus snapshot also breaks out revenue expectations by division (Data & Analytics, FTSE Russell, Risk Intelligence, Markets), pointing to steady growth across the group rather than a single “one-hit wonder” segment. ^[25]

Analysis: why LSEG stock is being treated like a “picks-and-shovels” AI play

LSEG’s pitch—made more explicit through 2025—leans on a simple but powerful idea:

If AI becomes the interface, whoever owns the licensed, permissioned, high-quality financial data remains the toll collector.

The OpenAI connector is a concrete expression of that strategy: instead of forcing users to live inside one terminal or one UI, LSEG is pushing its content into wherever workflows are moving—while keeping licensing and authentication in place. ^[26]

This also explains why the post-trade move is so strategically aligned. If LSEG can (a) distribute data into more “front doors” and (b) improve economics in post-trade plumbing like SwapClear, you get a narrative of recurring revenue + margin improvement + capital returns—the holy trinity for long-duration compounders.

Risks to watch: regulation, competition, and the operational reality of being “market plumbing”

Even the best tollbooths face detours.

Key risk themes that remain relevant for LSEG shareholders as of mid‑December 2025 include:

Regulatory and competition scrutiny: Reuters reported in September that LSEG agreed to share rooftop access at a data centre after a UK probe into whether an exclusive arrangement restricted competition for low‑latency connectivity services. The FCA provisionally accepted commitments, while not yet concluding whether competition law was breached. ^[27]
AI-driven competitive pressure (the irony): LSEG’s management has publicly pushed back on the idea that AI models can simply “replace” premium financial datasets, but the market will keep testing that claim—especially as AI-native research workflows proliferate. ^[28]
Execution risk: Rolling out new distribution channels (ChatGPT connector), absorbing post-trade economics changes, and maintaining operational resilience is hard engineering work, not marketing.

What could move LSEG shares next: key dates and catalysts into early 2026

A few near-term signposts matter for investors tracking LSEG stock from here:

Evidence of adoption and monetisation from the OpenAI connector rollout (expected live from the week of 8 December 2025) and any expansion beyond the initial Financial Analytics focus. ^[29]
Ongoing buyback execution disclosures, like the most recent cancellation-intended purchases reported for 11 December. ^[30]
Post Trade Solutions transaction close: LSEG said the deal was expected to close in 2025, which puts a countdown clock on finalisation and integration steps. ^[31]
Full-year results on 26 February 2026, which LSEG highlighted as the point by which it intends to have deployed an additional £1bn in buybacks (subject to timing and conditions). ^[32]
Macro backdrop in the UK: markets are increasingly focused on rate expectations; for example, commentary around the Bank of England’s 18 December meeting has intensified following weak UK growth data. ^[33]

Bottom line (for Google News readers)

As of 13 December 2025, the LSEG investment case is being shaped by three intertwined forces:

AI distribution: pushing licensed market data into new front-ends like ChatGPT (without giving away the crown jewels). ^[34]
Capital returns: a very active buyback programme with frequent execution updates. ^[35]
Margin and post-trade economics: SwapClear revenue-share changes and post-trade partnership structure that management says improves margins and earnings power. ^[36]

None of this removes risk—especially regulatory scrutiny and the ever-evolving competitive landscape—but it explains why LSEG continues to be treated as a strategically important “infrastructure + data” compounder rather than a plain-vanilla exchange operator.