London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) Share Price on 3 December 2025: Heavy Buybacks, AI Push and 2026 Stock Forecast

As of the morning of 3 December 2025, London Stock Exchange Group plc (LON:LSEG) sits in that awkward place investors both love and hate: a high‑quality franchise buying back stock aggressively, yet trading uncomfortably close to its 52‑week low.

Below is a structured rundown of the latest share price action, buyback news, earnings trends, AI and blockchain strategy, analyst forecasts and key risks as they stand today.

LSEG share price update on 3 December 2025

London Stock Exchange Group shares were trading around 8,680 pence in early dealings on Wednesday, slightly below Tuesday’s close of 8,744p, implying an intraday move of roughly ‑0.7%. ^[1]

Key trading and valuation markers:

Previous close (2 December 2025): 8,744p, down 0.57% on the day. ^[2]
Today’s range so far: roughly 8,642p–8,732p, with an open near 8,714p. ^[3]
52‑week range: about 8,094p–12,185p, putting the stock only ~7–8% above its 12‑month low and well below its peak earlier in 2025. ^[4]
One‑year performance: various data providers estimate a c.‑23–24% total price decline over the past year, compared with a positive mid‑teens gain for the broader UK market. ^[5]
Market capitalisation: around £45–46 billion, with a trailing P/E near 47x and a price‑to‑sales multiple just under 5x, according to recent analyst tear sheets. ^[6]

In other words: LSEG screens as an expensive, quality growth stock whose share price has gone backwards while its underlying business has kept compounding.

Fresh news for 3 December 2025: another buyback tranche and updated voting rights

The main stock‑specific headline today is yet another chunk of shares being retired under LSEG’s aggressive buyback programme.

A company announcement summarised by TipRanks shows that LSEG has: ^[7]

Repurchased 162,171 ordinary shares from Citigroup Global Markets
At an average price of 8,787.65p per share
With all of these shares earmarked for cancellation
Bringing total voting rights down to 513,256,641 shares

That follows a Regulatory News Service (RNS) filing yesterday (dated 2 December) confirming that on 1 December 2025 LSEG bought 179,694 shares at an average price of 8,815.61p, also for cancellation, taking voting rights to 513,418,812 at that point. ^[8]

Taken together with near‑daily RNS updates through November, the pattern is clear:

LSEG is soaking up stock almost every trading day, mostly in the mid‑£80s per share
The free‑float share count is steadily shrinking, increasing each remaining share’s claim on future earnings and cash flows TS2 Tech+1

For investors tracking corporate actions on 3 December 2025, this new buyback tranche and updated voting‑rights figure are the most immediate, stock‑specific datapoints.

How we got here: Q3 2025 results and upgraded margin guidance

Under the surface of the buyback drumbeat sits a business that is still putting up mid‑single‑digit organic growth with improving margins.

In its Q3 2025 trading update, LSEG reported: ^[9]

Total income (excluding recoveries) up 6.7% including M&A, and 6.4% organically, to £2,219m
Data & Analytics (which includes Refinitiv) up 4.9% organically
FTSE Russell indices up 9.3%, helped by strong asset‑based fees
Risk Intelligence (KYC, AML and sanctions screening) up 13.9%
Markets division (trading and post‑trade) up 6.3%, with record activity in fixed income and derivatives

Crucially, management raised margin guidance:

Excluding a major post‑trade transaction, constant‑currency EBITDA margins are now expected to rise ~100 bps in FY 2025, to the top of the prior range
Changes to the SwapClear revenue‑share arrangement add roughly another 100 bps of margin uplift in 2025, thanks to a richer share of surplus revenues ^[10]

The H1 2025 interim results showed the same story of operating leverage:

First‑half EBITDA up about 11% year‑on‑year
Profit before tax up c.43%
Basic EPS nearly doubled (122.7p vs 64.7p a year earlier)
Interim dividend raised roughly 15% to 47p per share ^[11]

Even back in July, when Reuters flagged that Annual Subscription Value (ASV) growth had slowed to 5.8% from 6.4% in Q1 – prompting a short‑term share‑price wobble – LSEG reaffirmed its 2025 6.5–7.5% organic income growth target and signalled firmer margins for the full year. ^[12]

The upshot: top‑line growth has cooled from the post‑Refinitiv integration surge, but remains solid, while margins are quietly drifting higher.

The £3.5 billion capital‑return and post‑trade deal spree

LSEG’s increasingly punchy buyback activity is anchored in a 2025 capital‑allocation plan that is unusually explicit by European standards.

In the Q3 update, the group set out its intention to deploy roughly £3.5 billion in 2025 between: ^[13]

£0.72bn in ordinary dividends (2024 final + 2025 interim)
£0.75bn net into post‑trade economics (the SwapClear deal and PTS stake sale)
£2.0bn in share buybacks

Key elements:

Post Trade Solutions (PTS) / SwapClear deal
- LSEG is selling a 20% stake in PTS to a group of 11 major banks for £170m, valuing the platform at £850m
- Simultaneously, it will pay roughly £1.15bn (mostly in 2025) to secure a larger share of SwapClear surplus revenues, extending the revenue‑share arrangement out to 2045 ^[14]
- The transaction is expected to boost Markets division EBITDA margin by ~250 bps and add ~100 bps to group margins from 2025, and be 2–3% accretive to adjusted EPS in 2025 TS2 Tech
Buybacks (past 12 months)
- £500m buyback completed in H1 2025
- A further £1bn buyback announced in July; by 22 October 2025, around £938m of that had been completed
- A new £1bn buyback was announced alongside the Q3 update, to be finished by the 26 February 2026 full‑year results, with “around half” expected to be executed before year‑end 2025 ^[15]

This is why investors are seeing daily “Transaction in Own Shares” notices and today’s TipRanks update about the latest 162,171‑share tranche. The company is deliberately using its cash‑flow strength and high multiple to retire shares at scale.

Data, analytics, AI and blockchain: the strategic growth pillars

For anyone still picturing LSEG as “just an exchange”, 2025’s news flow has hammered home that the core story is data, indices, risk and tech.

Data & Analytics as the growth engine

An AI‑focused analysis published in November highlights how LSEG’s Data & Analytics division – built largely around the Refinitiv acquisition – has become the structural growth engine: ^[16]

Q3 2025 Data & Analytics revenue reached about £982m, growing 4.9% organically
Around 90% of Data & Feeds revenue is protected by intellectual property and infrastructure rather than being scraped from public sources – a key defence against generic AI models that might otherwise commoditise market data
Annual Subscription Value across the group grew roughly 5.6% organically to period‑end, underscoring the stickiness of recurring contracts

LSEG has been leaning hard into cloud and AI distribution:

Deepening its 10‑year strategic partnership with Microsoft, including piping LSEG data into Microsoft 365, connecting thousands of firms via Azure‑based trading and analytics workflows TS2 Tech+1
Collaborations with Databricks, Snowflake and other platforms to make real‑time analytics and predictive tools more accessible inside clients’ existing infrastructure ^[17]
Launching internal AI analytics assistants and enhanced StarMine predictive models to help clients with stress‑testing and scenario analysis in volatile markets ^[18]

Those partnerships do double duty: they deepen LSEG’s moat and also feed demand for the high‑margin data products that underpin much of the business.

Blockchain and tokenisation: Digital Markets Infrastructure (DMI)

In September 2025, LSEG formally launched its Digital Markets Infrastructure (DMI) platform, a blockchain‑based system for private funds built on Microsoft Azure. ^[19]

Key features:

Designed to support the full lifecycle of private‑fund assets – issuance, tokenisation, trading, settlement and servicing
Initially focused on private funds, with early transactions reportedly involving players like MembersCap and Archax ^[20]
The platform is built to be interoperable with existing financial infrastructure and operate within current regulatory frameworks, positioning it as a regulated tokenisation solution rather than a crypto wild‑west experiment ^[21]

DMI is not yet about shifting the main equity market onto chain; it’s about making clunky, paperwork‑heavy private markets more efficient. But it signals LSEG’s intent to be a major player in tokenised assets.

AI partnerships beyond Microsoft

Two other AI headlines from 2025 round out the picture:

A collaboration with LG AI Research to build an AI‑driven equity‑forecast service that produces four‑week return predictions on thousands of US stocks using LSEG data and LG’s EXAONE‑BI model TS2 Tech
A partnership with Anthropic, giving its Claude AI assistant access to certain LSEG financial datasets, aimed at embedding high‑quality market data into conversational workflows for professional users ^[22]

Together, these moves support CEO David Schwimmer’s thesis from recent earnings calls: AI is more likely to increase demand for LSEG’s curated, licensed data than to destroy its economics, provided the group keeps investing in differentiated content and delivery. TS2 Tech+1

Analyst ratings and earnings forecasts as of early December 2025

On the sell‑side sentiment front, LSEG is about as close to an “analyst darling” as you’ll find in large‑cap UK financials.

Street recommendations and price targets

According to LSEG’s own analyst‑consensus page (as of 12 November 2025): ^[23]

17 Buy, 1 Hold, 0 Sell recommendations
Consensus target price: 12,244p
Based on a closing share price of 9,186p on 11 November, that implied just over 30% upside at that time

External aggregators paint a very similar picture:

MarketBeat collates seven major brokers and also finds a consensus “Buy”, with an average 12‑month target around £126.17 (about 12,617p). Targets generally cluster in the £119–£135 range, from firms including JPMorgan, Jefferies, RBC, Deutsche Bank and Citi. ^[24]
Other data platforms and valuation sites tend to show average targets 40–45% above the current share price, depending on exactly which analysts are included in their samples. TS2 Tech+1

Several brokers have tweaked numbers at the margin in recent months (for example, nudging targets from ~£115 to £119 or £127 to £133), but there has been no broad downgrade in the thesis. TS2 Tech+1

Earnings and revenue forecasts

Analyst‑consensus figures compiled by Simply Wall St and others indicate: ^[25]

Revenue growth: around 5.5% per year over the next few years
Earnings growth: about 15.9% per year, with EPS growth near 18% per year
Forecast return on equity rising toward ~11–12% in three years
Revenue expected to climb from roughly £8.9bn in 2024 to about £9.3bn in 2025, and £9.8–10.5bn by 2027, depending on the exact model

Those growth rates are comfortably ahead of most developed‑market GDP forecasts and slightly ahead of the broader UK capital‑markets sector averages.

On the calendar side, LSEG is expected to report 2025 full‑year results on or around 26 February 2026, according to current earnings calendars. ^[26]

As always, these are estimates, not promises – but they explain why the Street is willing to pay a premium multiple despite the stock’s recent underperformance.

Fundamentals and valuation snapshot

Pulling the fundamentals together, recent data snapshots from Simply Wall St, MarketBeat and other platforms suggest LSEG currently looks like this: TS2 Tech+2MarketBeat+2

Market cap: roughly £45bn
Trailing 12‑month revenue: around £9.1bn
Trailing earnings: close to £1.0bn, implying a net margin near 11%
Valuation:
- Trailing P/E in the mid‑40s (c.45–48x)
- Price‑to‑sales c.4.8–5.0x
- PEG ratio (price/earnings‑to‑growth) around 1.7x
Dividend profile:
- Trailing dividend yield about 1.5%
- Payout ratio around 70–75% of earnings, although that’s heavily influenced by accounting for intangibles post‑Refinitiv

On a one‑year view, Simply Wall St’s performance numbers highlight that: TS2 Tech+1

LSEG’s share price fell a little over 22% in the last 12 months
The UK capital‑markets peer group declined around 8%
The wider UK equity market rose about 16%

That combination – premium valuation, price underperformance and strong cash generation – is exactly what supports the management case for large buybacks: if the Street is right about mid‑teens earnings growth, retiring shares at a depressed price should amplify long‑term EPS.

Macro and policy backdrop: London’s listing push and risk appetite

While LSEG’s economics are increasingly global and data‑driven, it still sits at the centre of the UK’s equity ecosystem – and 2025 has been an eventful year on that front.

In late November, the UK government announced plans to scrap stamp‑duty tax on newly London‑listed shares for three years, aiming to revive the city’s appeal as a listing venue after several high‑profile IPOs drifted to New York and elsewhere. ^[27]
- The change doesn’t immediately transform LSEG’s income statement, but it should support capital‑formation volumes if it succeeds in luring more IPOs back to London.
On 3 December 2025, European equities opened modestly higher, with the STOXX 600 up about 0.2%, as tech and industrials led gains. The tone is one of cautious risk‑on, balancing softening inflation with lingering rate and geopolitical concerns. ^[28]

Meanwhile, LSEG continues to act as ecosystem convener, backing events like the London Fintech Summit and hosting AI‑and‑quant‑focused conferences at its Paternoster Square base – moves that reinforce its position at the heart of London’s financial technology scene. ^[29]

Bull vs bear case for LSEG stock on 3 December 2025

Putting the latest news, forecasts and analysis together, the investment debate around LSEG as of today looks something like this.

The bull case

Supporters of the stock typically emphasise:

High‑quality, diversified infrastructure: LSEG combines exchanges, clearing, indices and data in a way that is hard to replicate, with embedded roles in global markets. ^[30]
Recurring, IP‑protected revenue: Subscription‑style data and analytics income, much of it protected by contracts and proprietary content, accounts for a growing share of the business. ^[31]
Mid‑teens earnings growth with rising margins, as signalled by 2025 guidance and consensus models. ^[32]
Aggressive capital returns: £2bn‑plus of buybacks in 12 months, alongside a growing dividend, with net leverage still targeted below the mid‑point of management’s comfort range. ^[33]
AI and tokenisation optionality: If DMI, AI‑driven analytics and cloud partnerships scale well, they could deepen LSEG’s moat and unlock new revenue lines. ^[34]
Analyst support: Near‑unanimous Buy ratings and price targets 30–45% above current levels. ^[35]

The bear (or at least sceptical) case

Sceptics and more value‑oriented investors point to:

Premium valuation: A mid‑40s P/E leaves little room for disappointment if growth slows or competitive pressures intensify. ^[36]
ASV deceleration risk: The July interim results showed subscription growth cooling, and while management has so far navigated this, it underlines how dependent the story is on steady net‑sales momentum. ^[37]
AI competition and pricing pressure: Rivals like Bloomberg and S&P Global are investing heavily in their own AI platforms, and open‑source models may push down what clients are willing to pay for commoditised data. ^[38]
Execution risk in new platforms: DMI and AI projects are capital‑intensive and unproven at scale; not every blockchain or AI initiative in finance winds up being commercially successful. ^[39]
UK “valuation discount” dynamics: Some long‑term investors argue that London‑listed companies often struggle to close the gap with US peers, regardless of fundamentals – something even LSEG itself is not immune to, as Morningstar has noted. ^[40]

These tensions help explain why the stock can trade near its 12‑month low even as buybacks roar ahead and consensus targets sit far higher.

Key dates and catalysts after 3 December 2025

For investors following LSEG from today’s vantage point, key near‑term catalysts include:

Daily buyback and voting‑rights updates
The speed and price levels of repurchases – including today’s 162,171‑share tranche – will continue to influence supply‑demand dynamics in the stock. ^[41]
FTSE index review implementation
December’s FTSE UK index review (with changes based on data as at close on 2 December and confirmed after the close on 3 December) can drive index‑linked flows that are relevant to LSEG’s FTSE Russell business and to liquidity in the stock itself. ^[42]
2025 full‑year results – expected 26 February 2026
This will be the real test of whether LSEG can sustain 6.5–7.5% organic income growth, deliver the promised margin uplift and show tangible progress from AI and DMI initiatives. ^[43]
Regulatory and policy developments in UK capital markets
Implementation of the stamp‑duty exemption for new listings and any further reforms aimed at boosting London’s competitiveness could improve the longer‑term backdrop for capital‑formation revenues. ^[44]

Final word: what 3 December 2025 tells you about LSEG stock

As of 3 December 2025, London Stock Exchange Group looks like a systemically important market‑infrastructure and data franchise that:

Continues to deliver solid, if not spectacular, organic growth
Is pushing margins higher via operational leverage and improved post‑trade economics
Is leaning into AI, data and tokenisation as secular growth drivers
Is using substantial buybacks to turn a sliding share price into an EPS‑accretive opportunity
Trades on a premium multiple, leaving investors to decide whether that premium is justified by the moat and growth runway