London Stock Exchange Group plc (LON: LSEG) heads into the final stretch of 2025 with a weirdly quiet tape—because the tape is literally paused. The London Stock Exchange is closed on Friday, 26 December (Boxing Day), following the early close on 24 December and the Christmas Day shutdown. [1]
With markets shut, investors are using the pause to do what they always do when they can’t trade: re-run the narrative. And LSEG’s narrative in late 2025 has three big chapters:
- Capital returns (a very real buyback machine)
- AI distribution (getting LSEG’s licensed data into the new AI “front doors”)
- Valuation vs. growth (is the market paying too much—or suddenly too little—for a data-and-market-infrastructure hybrid?)
Below is what’s current as of 26 December 2025, spanning the latest available pricing, recent company activity, and the most recent published analyst consensus.
LSEG share price today: market closed, last trade 24 December
Because of the holiday closure, the most recent readily quoted UK market price is the 24 December 2025 close. Hargreaves Lansdown shows LSEG around 8,894p (£88.94) (buy price) with “Market closed | Prices as at close on 24 December 2025.” [2]
Key snapshot metrics from that same pricing page:
- Market cap: about £45.17bn [3]
- 52-week range (year low / high):8,096p to 12,185p [4]
- P/E ratio:24.41 (as shown there) [5]
- Dividend yield:1.46% (as shown there) [6]
And yes—this is a Boxing Day reality: you can’t buy or sell LSEG shares on the LSE today, because the exchange is closed. [7]
2025 performance: why LSEG shows up on “worst performers” lists
If 2025 had a single mood for UK large caps, it was “AI ate my homework.” LSEG didn’t collapse, but it lagged—enough to get name-checked in year-end underperformer roundups.
Interactive Investor lists London Stock Exchange Group (LSE:LSEG) down 21.0% year-to-date (source data as at 19 December 2025) and explicitly links the weakness to fears that AI could threaten the business model. [8]
That framing matters, because it tees up the next section: LSEG’s strategy is essentially, “Fine—then we’ll be the trusted data layer inside AI workflows.”
Capital returns: LSEG is actively buying back shares
LSEG’s buyback isn’t just a headline—it’s an operational process, with regular announced purchases.
A late-December example: LSEG bought 56,183 shares on 23 December 2025 at an average price of 8,899.82p, as part of its ongoing share buyback programme, and said it intends to cancel the repurchased shares. [9]
Zooming out, this buyback flow is tied to the company’s broader capital allocation plan. In its Q3 2025 Trading Update, LSEG said it intends to deploy a further £1 billion in share buybacks by the time of its 2025 full year results on 26 February 2026 (and expects to complete about half during 2025). [10]
The AI storyline: LSEG is trying to become the “licensed data engine” inside ChatGPT and Claude
LSEG’s strategic gamble is pretty clear: if users stop “going to terminals” and start “asking AI,” then LSEG wants its content to be what the AI answers with—legally, reliably, and with enterprise controls.
OpenAI / ChatGPT integration (December 2025)
Reuters reported that LSEG will integrate its financial data and analytics into ChatGPT and make OpenAI’s enterprise tool available to employees, positioning this as part of a broader push to embed AI across financial markets. [11]
LSEG’s own announcement adds key implementation detail: it’s launching an MCP (Model Context Protocol) connector so ChatGPT users with LSEG licensed credentials can access and analyse LSEG data and news content inside ChatGPT, rolling out in phases starting with LSEG Financial Analytics. [12]
Anthropic / Claude for Financial Services (October 2025)
In a separate Reuters report, LSEG said it is collaborating with Anthropic so users of Claude for Financial Services can access data licensed through LSEG products. Reuters notes Workspace and Financial Analytics as accessible through the offering, aimed at automating financial analysis. [13]
Microsoft ecosystem: AI “where the work happens”
An LSEG Insights piece published 17 December 2025 frames the Microsoft partnership as an effort to reduce fragmented workflows by embedding LSEG’s trusted data and analytics into tools like Teams, Excel, and Microsoft 365 Copilot, and enabling organisations to build custom AI agents using LSEG data. [14]
Put those together and the strategy becomes less “AI buzzword bingo” and more “distribution math”:
- More AI interfaces →
- More demand for licensed, permissioned, auditable market data →
- More ways for LSEG to sell (or defend) subscriptions, feeds, analytics, and workflow products
That’s the bull case, in a sentence.
Market structure moves still matter: SwapClear and post-trade economics
AI is the flashy part. But LSEG also has deep plumbing—especially in clearing and post-trade.
Reuters previously reported that LSEG planned to sell a 20% stake in its clearing business to a consortium of banks, while also reshaping the economics around SwapClear (interest rate swaps clearing), alongside a £1 billion share buyback and stronger-than-expected quarterly results. [15]
That matters for the stock because it speaks to two investor obsessions:
- Recurring revenue durability (market infrastructure tends to be sticky)
- Capital intensity and returns (how much cash the plumbing throws off after reinvestment)
Analyst forecasts: what consensus expects for 2025–2027
Here’s the cleanest “forecast hub” you can use without playing telephone through ten brokerage notes: LSEG’s published analyst consensus, dated 12 November 2025.
Ratings and target price
LSEG reports analyst ratings of:
- Buy: 17
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
Consensus target share price: 12,244p. [16]
Against the ~8,894p Boxing Day snapshot price, that target implies roughly 38% upside (purely arithmetic—not a promise). [17]
What analysts model for the business
From the same consensus table:
- Total income (ex recoveries):£8,972m (2025) → £9,549m (2026) → £10,215m (2027) [18]
- Adjusted EBITDA margin (ex recoveries):50.3% (2025) → 51.2% (2026) → 51.6% (2027) [19]
- Adjusted basic EPS:415.8p (2025) → 462.8p (2026) → 517.2p (2027) [20]
- Dividend per share:144.2p (2025) → 160.4p (2026) → 179.1p (2027) [21]
And the segment shape embedded in the consensus is revealing: Data & Analytics and Markets are both multi‑billion contributors in the models, with FTSE Russell adding a meaningful (and typically higher‑margin) stream. [22]
For a second independent read, Investing.com’s consensus page similarly labels LSEG a “Strong Buy” with an average target around 12,284 (and a stated high/low range). [23]
Valuation debate: “premium multiple” or “rare entry point”?
A lot of the late‑2025 LSEG argument comes down to whether you believe:
- LSEG is a durable compounder (data + benchmarks + trading/clearing rails) that deserves a premium, or
- LSEG is a premium priced incumbent facing real disruption risk from AI and competition.
A Simply Wall St analysis from 23 December 2025 highlights the tension directly: it notes LSEG’s high P/E versus the broader UK market and ties the valuation to expectations of stronger future growth (while also implicitly warning that high expectations can be fragile). [24]
Meanwhile, Interactive Investor’s year-end commentary explicitly points to AI disruption fears as a weight on the shares in 2025. [25]
The market is basically asking: Is AI a new competitor… or a new distribution channel?
LSEG is clearly betting on “distribution channel”—and it’s signing the contracts to prove it. [26]
Regulation watch: UK benchmark reform could reshape the index/benchmark landscape
Benchmarks are not just a footnote for LSEG—FTSE Russell is a core franchise.
Reuters reported on 17 December 2025 that the UK plans to overhaul benchmark regulation to reduce compliance burdens and focus oversight on benchmarks posing systemic risk, with the finance ministry expecting the number of benchmark administrators to fall sharply under the proposals and a consultation running to 11 March 2026. [27]
For LSEG investors, the question isn’t simply “more or less regulation,” but who bears the burden and whether reforms change competitive dynamics across benchmark providers.
What to watch next for LSEG stock
With the market closed today, the near-term catalysts are calendar-driven:
- Buyback execution updates (ongoing RNS-style announcements like the 23 Dec purchase) [28]
- Full-year 2025 results on 26 February 2026 (the anchor date LSEG itself references for buyback timing) [29]
- Evidence that AI partnerships turn into monetisable usage (OpenAI + Anthropic + Microsoft workflow embedding) [30]
- Any further market-structure deals that alter clearing economics or expand into adjacent data/market services [31]
- UK benchmark reform consultation developments into March 2026 [32]
Bottom line (Boxing Day edition)
On 26 December 2025, LSEG stock is in that classic “quiet market, loud thesis” zone:
- The share price is anchored to the 24 Dec close because the LSE is shut today.
- The company is actively returning cash via buybacks while pointing to further buyback deployment into early 2026.
- The strategic battleground is whether LSEG can turn AI into a new distribution layer for its licensed data—rather than letting AI become a margin-eroding substitute.
- Published consensus remains broadly positive, with a buy-heavy rating mix and a target price materially above current levels (per the latest LSEG-hosted consensus snapshot).
References
1. moneyweek.com, 2. www.hl.co.uk, 3. www.hl.co.uk, 4. www.hl.co.uk, 5. www.hl.co.uk, 6. www.hl.co.uk, 7. moneyweek.com, 8. www.ii.co.uk, 9. www.investegate.co.uk, 10. www.lseg.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.lseg.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.lseg.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.lseg.com, 17. www.hl.co.uk, 18. www.lseg.com, 19. www.lseg.com, 20. www.lseg.com, 21. www.lseg.com, 22. www.lseg.com, 23. www.investing.com, 24. simplywall.st, 25. www.ii.co.uk, 26. www.lseg.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.investegate.co.uk, 29. www.lseg.com, 30. www.lseg.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.reuters.com
