Lowe’s (LOW) Stock Outlook for 2026: Can a Dividend King Win After the FBM Mega‑Deal and Forecast Cut?

As of 7 December 2025, Lowe’s Companies (NYSE: LOW) sits at around $248 per share, in the middle of its 52‑week range of roughly $206 to $281, with a market value near $139 billion. ^[1] Despite a powerful dividend record and a big strategic push into the professional contractor market, LOW stock has actually lagged the broader U.S. market in 2025, even as Wall Street’s outlook remains cautiously optimistic. ^[2]

Here is where Lowe’s stock stands after its latest earnings, guidance update, and the closing of its $8.8 billion Foundation Building Materials deal — and what analysts and housing trends are signaling for 2026.

Where LOW stock stands now

Lowe’s is one of the two giants of U.S. home improvement retail, operating more than 1,700 stores and generating trailing‑twelve‑month (TTM) revenue of about $84.3 billion and net income of roughly $6.8 billion. ^[3]

Key snapshot as of the close on 5 December 2025:

Share price: $248.47
Market cap: $139.4 billion
52‑week range: $206.39 – $280.64
TTM EPS: $12.06
Trailing P/E: ~20.6×
Forward P/E: ~19.5×
Dividend: $4.80 per share annually (about 1.9% yield)
Free cash flow yield: ~5.1%
Beta: ~0.96 (slightly less volatile than the S&P 500) ^[4]

That valuation leaves Lowe’s trading at a moderate discount to the broader U.S. market’s P/E multiple, but nowhere near “deep value” territory. The S&P 500’s earnings multiple has stayed elevated in 2025 as the index has climbed to record territory around the mid‑6800s, up more than 13% over the past year. ^[5]

By contrast, LOW stock is slightly negative year‑to‑date and down roughly double digits over the last 12 months, meaning investors have so far been paid mainly with dividends and buybacks rather than price appreciation. ^[6]

2025 so far: earnings that beat, forecasts that underwhelmed

Lowe’s 2025 story is a mix of solid execution and macro‑driven caution.

Q1 2025: soft demand, cautious guidance

Early in the year, Lowe’s reported flat‑to‑slightly negative comparable sales and warned that high interest rates were weighing on big‑ticket home improvement projects. Guidance for fiscal 2025 called for flat to modest growth in comps and EPS around $12.15–$12.40, notably below Wall Street’s expectations at the time. ^[7]

Management emphasized pressure in major DIY categories like flooring and kitchen/bath remodeling — areas that account for a large share of revenue — as homeowners delayed large renovations in the face of expensive borrowing. ^[8]

Q2 2025: earnings beat and a first inflection in comps

The tone improved sharply in Q2 2025:

EPS: $4.27 vs. $4.17 a year earlier, with adjusted EPS of $4.33, up 5.6% year‑on‑year.
Sales: $24.0 billion vs. $23.6 billion last year.
Comparable sales:+1.1%, an improvement from Q1’s decline.
Online sales: up about 7.5%, supporting the omnichannel push. ^[9]

Lowe’s cited strength in both Pro and DIY customers and improving monthly trends: comps moved from negative in May to mid‑single‑digit positive in July. ^[10]

On the back of this, management raised full‑year 2025 sales guidance to $84.5–$85.5 billion and reaffirmed a wide EPS range, even before factoring in the major deal announced alongside results (more on that below). ^[11]

Q3 2025: EPS beat, revenue miss, and a trimmed profit outlook

The most recent quarter, reported on 19 November 2025, is the one markets are still digesting:

Q3 sales: $20.81 billion (up a little over 3% year‑on‑year) but slightly below consensus.
Comparable sales:+0.4%, missing analysts’ hopes for a stronger rebound.
Adjusted EPS:$3.06, beating the ~$2.97 consensus. ^[12]

Crucially, Lowe’s raised full‑year sales guidance to about $86 billion, reflecting the impact of acquisitions, but trimmed its adjusted EPS outlook to roughly $12.25, pegging the change to macro uncertainty and deal‑related costs. ^[13]

Commentary from the earnings call and follow‑up coverage underscored two themes:

Customers are sticking to smaller projects — paint, décor, minor repairs — and avoiding big remodels while borrowing costs remain high. ^[14]
Despite this, Lowe’s tone was more upbeat than Home Depot’s, with CEO Marvin Ellison noting that quarter‑to‑date sales had turned positive and that November demand was picking up, driven by seasonal categories and Pro customers. ^[15]

Market reaction was initially positive: LOW jumped about 5–6% on the day, as investors focused on the EPS beat and early benefits from its Pro strategy, even while acknowledging a still‑weak remodeling environment. ^[16]

The FBM and ADG deals: a $10+ billion bet on Pro customers

The biggest structural story around Lowe’s in 2025 isn’t just its quarterly numbers. It’s the company’s decision to lean hard into the professional builder and contractor market, a segment traditionally dominated by Home Depot and specialized distributors.

Artisan Design Group (ADG): surfacing a $50B adjacent market

In early 2025, Lowe’s closed its roughly $1.3 billion acquisition of Artisan Design Group (ADG), a large provider of interior surface design, distribution, and installation (flooring, countertops, etc.). ^[17]

The move gives Lowe’s:

Deeper capabilities in turnkey installation for builders and remodelers.
Exposure to what the company sees as a $50 billion adjacent market tied to new housing construction and large interior projects. ^[18]

Foundation Building Materials (FBM): the $8.8 billion wholesale play

On 20 August 2025, alongside its Q2 results, Lowe’s announced an agreement to buy Foundation Building Materials (FBM) for about $8.8 billion. ^[19]

Key details:

FBM operates over 370 locations in the U.S. and Canada.
It serves around 40,000 Pro customers, supplying drywall, insulation, metal framing, ceilings, and commercial doors and hardware. ^[20]
The deal targets the $250 billion professional building market, where Lowe’s historically had a smaller share than Home Depot. ^[21]

The acquisition closed in October 2025, and Lowe’s immediately began integrating FBM into its “Total Home” strategy. Management describes the deal as accretive to adjusted EPS in the first full year after closing (excluding synergies) and a step toward increasing Pro customers to roughly 30% of sales. ^[22]

In Q3, Lowe’s disclosed that it invested $8.8 billion in FBM and returned $673 million in dividends during the quarter, further underscoring how much capital is being deployed into this pivot. ^[23]

From an equity story perspective, the FBM and ADG deals amount to a major re‑wiring of Lowe’s growth engine: less reliance on discretionary DIY remodels, more on professional construction and repair cycles.

How analysts see LOW stock after Q3 and the FBM deal

Despite underperformance versus the S&P 500, Wall Street’s stance on LOW is broadly constructive, though more nuanced than in past years.

Consensus ratings and price targets

MarketBeat’s latest compilation of 28 analyst opinions gives Lowe’s a “Moderate Buy” rating:

16 Buy, 11 Hold, 1 Sell.
Average 12‑month price target:$274.88, implying about 10.6% upside from a recent price of $248.50.
Target range: $242 on the low end to $316 at the high end. ^[24]

StockAnalysis, which aggregates 21 analyst targets, shows a similar picture:

Consensus rating: Buy.
Average price target:$276.10, or roughly 11.1% upside from current levels. ^[25]

A Fintel‑based summary of Stifel’s work pegs the average target around $283.21, roughly 15% above Lowe’s late‑November closing price at the time. ^[26]

Recent target changes: trimming, not abandoning the bull case

Over the last few weeks, several banks have tweaked their views:

Oppenheimer cut its price target from $320 to $315, but kept an “Outperform” rating; the firm notes that even the lower target still implies over 27% upside from recent trading levels. ^[27]
Stifel raised its target from $230 to $250 on 1 December while maintaining a Hold rating, pointing out that Lowe’s held up better than Home Depot in Q3 but still faces softer demand than it had anticipated. ^[28]
RBC and others have trimmed targets into the low‑$250s following the Q3 report and the FBM acquisition, citing near‑term earnings drag from deal‑related costs. ^[29]

The pattern is fairly clear: targets are drifting down from the $290–$320 range toward the mid‑$270s, but the majority of analysts still see double‑digit upside if Lowe’s executes on its Pro strategy and the housing cycle eventually turns.

Dividend profile: LOW as a classic Dividend King

One of the biggest reasons income‑focused investors watch LOW stock is its remarkable dividend record:

Lowe’s has raised its dividend for over 60 consecutive years, earning formal status as a Dividend King, Dividend Aristocrat, and Dividend Champion. ^[30]
Annualized dividend today: $4.80 per share (paid quarterly at $1.20). ^[31]
Dividend yield: about 1.9–2.0%, depending on the day’s share price. ^[32]
Payout ratio: roughly 39% of earnings, leaving room for reinvestment and buybacks. ^[33]

StockAnalysis estimates Lowe’s total shareholder yield — dividends plus net share repurchases — at around 3.6%, combining a ~1.9% dividend yield with roughly 1.6% buyback yield. ^[34]

Recent coverage from Nasdaq and other outlets highlights that Lowe’s has more than doubled its dividend since 2021, far outpacing U.S. inflation over the same period. ^[35]

In other words, even if the share price treads water, LOW behaves like a long‑term compounding income vehicle, provided earnings growth eventually resumes.

Housing & remodeling outlook: headwinds now, recovery later?

The missing puzzle piece for any LOW stock forecast is the housing and remodeling cycle.

What Lowe’s management is seeing

On the Q3 call, Lowe’s executives and subsequent news coverage painted a consistent picture:

Customers are prioritizing smaller, lower‑ticket projects and postponing major renovations such as full kitchen or bath remodels. ^[36]
High interest rates have made borrowing for home improvement less attractive, even though rising home prices have boosted owners’ equity on paper. ^[37]
Management believes that further rate reductions could unlock $11–$13 billion of tappable home equity, potentially fueling a new wave of renovation spending — but they have avoided giving a firm timing forecast. ^[38]

Independent forecasts for remodeling and housing

External research lines up with this cautious tone:

Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies and industry publications suggest that U.S. remodeling spending will likely grow slowly or even dip modestly in the near term, held back by high financing costs and slower home sales, before stabilizing and resuming growth later in the decade. ^[39]
Realtor.com’s and Redfin’s latest forecasts describe a “Great Housing Reset”, with 2025 still sluggish but gradual affordability improvements and a modest pickup in existing‑home sales expected into 2026. ^[40]

For Lowe’s, that implies:

Near‑term revenue growth will likely stay muted in DIY‑driven categories.
The Pro‑oriented FBM and ADG acquisitions should partially offset this, since new construction, repair work, and large builder contracts follow somewhat different cycles than discretionary consumer remodeling. ^[41]

If housing activity and renovation spending do pick up, Lowe’s will be entering that recovery as a more diversified, Pro‑heavy business than it was heading into 2025.

Valuation, risks, and what’s priced into LOW stock

Putting it all together, what story does the current LOW stock price appear to be telling?

What the current valuation implies

At roughly 20.6× trailing earnings and 19.5× forward earnings, Lowe’s trades:

At a discount to the overall U.S. market, where the S&P 500’s P/E remains in the mid‑20s. ^[42]
At a premium to many slower‑growing brick‑and‑mortar retailers, reflecting its higher margins, strong brand, and long dividend history. ^[43]

Free cash flow yield around 5% and total shareholder yield in the mid‑3% range mean investors are getting reasonable cash returns today, but not at distressed or bargain levels. ^[44]

Analysts’ average price targets in the mid‑$270s essentially assume:

Modest low‑single‑digit sales growth over the next year.
Stable‑to‑slightly improving margins as FBM and ADG are integrated.
A housing market that remains sluggish but doesn’t collapse, with some tailwind from eventual rate cuts. ^[45]

Key risks investors are watching

Several issues could derail that base‑case narrative:

Integration risk
FBM and ADG together represent over $10 billion in deal value and bring complex distribution networks and cultures. Missteps could hurt margins or distract management. ^[46]
Higher‑for‑longer interest rates
If rates stay elevated into 2026, the hoped‑for rebound in big‑ticket remodeling could be delayed again, prolonging the period of flat comps and limited operating leverage. ^[47]
Competition from Home Depot and specialty distributors
Home Depot continues to invest heavily in its Pro business and has pursued its own major acquisitions. Lowe’s must execute well to win share in what remains a fragmented but fiercely contested market. ^[48]
Macro and consumer confidence
A broader economic slowdown could hit discretionary DIY, contractor backlogs, and even professional new‑build demand, making Lowe’s more cyclical than its “home repair” image suggests. ^[49]

Bottom line: how LOW stock looks as of 7 December 2025

As of 7 December 2025, Lowe’s stock is priced as a solid but not spectacular blue‑chip:

The market is acknowledging short‑term macro headwinds and deal costs with subdued share performance and a moderate multiple.
At the same time, analysts’ price targets and the company’s cash‑return profile show continued confidence in Lowe’s long‑term earnings power, underpinned by its Dividend King status, strong free‑cash‑flow generation, and strategic expansion into the Pro channel. ^[50]

For readers tracking LOW stock into 2026, the key variables to watch will be:

Quarter‑to‑quarter comp trends in both DIY and Pro.
Synergy and margin progress from the FBM and ADG integrations.
Interest‑rate moves and housing data that signal when the remodeling cycle might finally turn.

Those factors will likely matter more for Lowe’s share price over the next year than any single analyst downgrade or upgrade — and they are exactly where the market will be looking for confirmation that this long‑running home‑improvement champion can turn today’s cautious outlook into tomorrow’s renewed growth.