Lyft, Inc. shares are back under pressure just as Wall Street has turned more optimistic on the ride‑hailing company’s turnaround story.
As of midday on December 11, 2025, Lyft stock is trading around $20.32 per share, according to real‑time quote data, after closing at that level on December 10 with a one‑day drop of about 6.7%. [1] That decline caps a volatile stretch in which the stock spiked more than 50% year‑to‑date by December 1 before giving back part of those gains. [2]
Below is a detailed look at the latest price action, key news from December 11 and the past few days, and what analysts and forecasters currently expect for Lyft into 2026.
Lyft stock today: sharp pullback after a big 2025 rally
Lyft’s short‑term story is a tug‑of‑war between bullish analyst revisions and fear that robotaxis will eat into the traditional ride‑sharing model.
- On December 10, multiple trackers reported an intraday drop of roughly 8–9%, with Lyft changing hands around $19.9–$20.5 at various points during the session. [3]
- Estimated trading volume topped $235 million in dollar terms, highlighting heavy institutional activity behind the move. [4]
- MarketBeat’s live news feed and AI summary framed the move as a clash between fresh bullish analyst price‑target hikes and near‑term headwinds from autonomous‑vehicle competition and negative safety headlines. [5]
Despite the recent sell‑off, sentiment has clearly improved over 2025. A SwingTradeBot summary notes that Lyft shares were up about 54% year‑to‑date and 5.8% over the prior week as of December 1, reflecting renewed optimism in the turnaround. [6]
Why Lyft is dropping now: robotaxis and safety headlines
Robotaxi competition: Waymo and Tesla in the spotlight
Benzinga reports that Lyft shares traded sharply lower on Wednesday, December 10, “amid Waymo’s competitive momentum in autonomous cabs.” [7] Alphabet’s Waymo has already completed more than 14 million paid robotaxi trips in 2025 and aims to reach one million rides per week by the end of 2026, according to a Zacks/Nasdaq feature on Tesla and the broader robotaxi race. [8]
At the same time, Tesla CEO Elon Musk has set a three‑week countdown to fully driverless Model Y robotaxis in Austin, Texas, with no safety driver on board, in what he describes as “pretty much solved” full self‑driving. [9] These developments have stoked fears that human‑driven platforms like Lyft could eventually be undercut by cheaper autonomous fleets.
Bank of America’s Justin Post estimates that if AV ride‑hailing becomes mainstream, it could grow to 20% of annual U.S. vehicle miles traveled, creating a $900 billion–$1.2 trillion market opportunity at roughly $1.50–$2.00 per mile—but his rating on Lyft is Underperform with a $19 price target, while Uber gets a Buy rating. [10]
MarketBeat’s “Why Is Lyft Dropping Today?” digest highlights robotaxis as a top negative catalyst, explicitly pointing to growing AV competition as a margin risk for Lyft. [11]
Safety and reputational risk
The same MarketBeat rundown flags recent safety incidents and coverage—including a widely reported Omaha shooting incident involving a Lyft passenger and press releases from law firms about ride‑share assault risks—as additional sentiment headwinds. [12] These stories don’t change Lyft’s financials directly but can influence regulators, insurance costs, and rider trust.
Q3 2025: Lyft is finally profitable at scale
Under the volatility, Lyft’s fundamentals look stronger than they have at any point since its IPO.
Lyft’s Q3 2025 results (reported November 5) show: [13]
- Gross bookings: $4.78–$4.8 billion, +16% year over year, an all‑time high.
- Revenue: about $1.68–$1.7 billion, up 11% YoY, though slightly below consensus estimates.
- Net income:$46.1 million, versus a $12.4 million loss in Q3 2024 – a meaningful swing into profitability.
- Adjusted EBITDA:$138.9 million, up 29% YoY, with margin improving to 2.9% of gross bookings (from 2.6%).
- Rides:248.8 million, +15% YoY, the tenth straight quarter of double‑digit rides growth.
- Active riders:28.7 million, +18% YoY and a new record.
Zacks notes that Q3 EPS of $0.26 missed its $0.30 consensus, making it the third EPS miss in the past four quarters, but emphasizes that gross bookings have now grown double‑digits for 18 consecutive quarters—a sign of persistent demand momentum. [14]
Q4 2025 guidance: still double‑digit growth
For Q4 2025, Lyft guides to: [15]
- Rides growth: mid‑to‑high teens % YoY
- Gross bookings:$5.01–$5.13 billion, up 17–20% YoY
- Adjusted EBITDA:$135–$155 million
- Adjusted EBITDA margin: about 2.7–3.0% of gross bookings
In other words, management is signaling that revenue and usage growth remain solid even as the business stays profit‑generative on an adjusted basis.
Strategic moves: AV partnerships, “Price Lock” and buybacks
Zacks’ deep‑dive on Lyft’s gross booking growth paints a picture of a company trying to adapt with autonomous vehicles, not against them. [16]
Key strategic points:
- Waymo partnership in Nashville: Lyft has inked a deal with Alphabet’s Waymo to bring fully autonomous ride‑hailing to Nashville in 2026. Flexdrive, Lyft’s fleet‑management unit, will handle end‑to‑end operations for the local Waymo fleet. Initially, riders will request Waymo vehicles via the Waymo app, with plans to integrate those cars into the Lyft network later in 2026. [17]
- Other AV alliances: Lyft also has agreements with May Mobility, Mobileye Global and Nexar, allowing it to pursue AV services without funding the full R&D stack itself. [18]
Lyft is also leaning into product and capital‑allocation tweaks:
- Price Lock subscription: A new “Price Lock” feature lets commuters pay $2.99 per month to avoid surge pricing on regular routes. Management says it is performing better than expected, and users who opt in take about four more rides per month on average versus before. [19]
- Share repurchases: The company boosted its buyback authorization to $750 million, planning to deploy $500 million in the next 12 months, supported by more than $1 billion in trailing 12‑month cash flow. [20]
Separately, Motley Fool analysis notes that Lyft has generated over $1 billion in free cash flow over the last year, implying a free‑cash‑flow margin of roughly 16%, and that free cash flow grew around 60% year over year in the most recent quarter. At recent prices, the stock trades at under 9× trailing free cash flow, which is significantly cheaper than Uber on that metric. [21]
Analyst sentiment and price targets as of December 11, 2025
Analysts are not unanimous, but most major data providers show modest upside from current levels.
Consensus targets
Different platforms collate slightly different analyst lists, but they all land in roughly the same ballpark:
- MarketBeat: Average 12‑month price target of about $22.92 from 36 analysts, with a range of $14–$30, implying roughly 12.8% upside from ~$20.32. [22]
- StockAnalysis: 30 analysts, average target $22.68 and a consensus rating of “Buy”, implying around 11–12% upside. [23]
- Investing.com: 38 analysts with an overall “Buy” rating and an average target near $24.40 (high $32, low $18). [24]
- MarketBeat / AmericanBankingNews: 11 Buy, 24 Hold, 1 Sell, for an overall “Hold” consensus and average target $22.73. [25]
- TickerNerd: Aggregating 58 Wall Street analysts, it finds a neutral consensus, median target $24.53 (range $18–$32) with 14 Buy, 31 Hold and 1 Sell rating, implying about 20% upside from ~$20.32. [26]
- Public.com: 29 analysts, consensus “Hold” with a price prediction around $22.67. [27]
Put simply, Wall Street as of December 11 largely expects mid‑teens percentage upside over the next year, but with considerable dispersion around the mean.
Recent high‑profile rating changes
Several notable moves in recent weeks:
- Wells Fargo raised its price target to $26 (from $20) while keeping an Equal Weight rating. The bank cites a strong U.S. outlook but remains cautious due to Lyft’s lack of international diversification. [28]
- Arete Research upgraded Lyft from Sell to Neutral, doubling its target from $10 to $20. [29]
- Guggenheim reaffirmed a Buy rating and raised its target to $26 from $24. [30]
- Mizuho kept a Neutral stance but lifted its target to $27. [31]
- Bernstein and Canaccord Genuity nudged targets higher to $23 and $19, respectively, while keeping more cautious ratings (Market Perform/Hold). [32]
- Morgan Stanley recently issued a “positive forecast” with a $22.50 target, feeding into the consensus but not pushing it into aggressive bull territory. [33]
- Bank of America, in contrast, sees the AV opportunity as enormous but still rates Lyft Underperform with a $19 target, preferring Uber in its AV integration thesis. [34]
At a higher level, Zacks currently tags Lyft as a Rank #2 (Buy), arguing that upward revisions in 2025–26 sales and EPS estimates plus a relatively low forward price‑to‑sales multiple make the stock attractive at current levels. [35]
Forecasts for 2025–2026: growth, but not without risk
Street estimates
Zacks’ consensus models imply: [36]
- Sales growth: about 12.3% in 2025 and 14.6% in 2026
- EPS growth: roughly +25.3% in 2025 and +25.9% in 2026
These forecasts reflect higher expected margins from better driver supply, higher engagement and efficiency measures like Price Lock and improved routing.
Independent AI/quant sites such as PandaForecast project a near‑term target around $24.3 by mid‑December 2025, with relatively modest modeled volatility. [37] Such automated models are best treated as scenario tools rather than precise predictions, but they line up with the general idea of moderate upside rather than explosive growth.
Valuation: cheap or expensive? Depends on the lens
Valuation takes on two very different narratives depending on which metric you care about:
- A recent Yahoo Finance valuation piece notes Lyft trading at a price‑to‑earnings ratio of about 52.7×, almost double the U.S. Transportation industry average near 26.2×, and above what the author considered a fair multiple. [38]
- MarketBeat data, calculated at a slightly different price point, shows a P/E near 59.8× and a P/E/G ratio around 2.3, both clearly on the rich side for a cyclical business. [39]
- Zacks, however, argues that on a forward price‑to‑sales basis, Lyft is cheaper than Uber, DoorDash and the broader Internet Services peer group, with a forward sales multiple of roughly 1.2× and a Value Score of B. [40]
- On free cash flow, Motley Fool/Finviz analysis points out that Lyft trades at less than 9× trailing FCF, versus more than double that multiple for Uber, and that FCF is growing rapidly. [41]
The net result:
- On earnings multiples, Lyft screens expensive because GAAP profits are still small relative to the share price.
- On sales and cash‑flow metrics, it can look undervalued versus both peers and the broader market, particularly if you believe margins can keep improving.
Longer‑term context: still far below IPO price
Despite the 2025 rebound, Lyft remains a deeply underwater investment for anyone who bought at the IPO.
Motley Fool notes that Lyft went public in early 2019 at $72 per share; more than six years later, even after this year’s rally, the stock has lost about 73% of its value from that debut price. [42]
That historical damage is precisely why recent analyses carry titles like “How Has LYFT Stock Done for Investors?”, “Read This Before Buying Lyft Stock”, and “Should Investors Buy Lyft Stock for 2026?”, all of which emphasize that the turnaround is real but incomplete, and stress the disruptive threat from autonomous vehicles as the key long‑term risk. [43]
Driven.ai’s risk summary and related coverage summarize the biggest structural hazards as: [44]
- Competitive pressure – not just from Uber, but from AV‑enabled platforms (Waymo, Tesla, and others).
- Regulatory and legal risk – evolving labor rules, safety regulation, and liability for incidents on the platform.
- Operational execution risk – keeping driver supply, rider satisfaction, and unit economics in balance while the industry’s technology base is shifting underfoot.
Insider and institutional flows: mixed signals
Recent filings show both insider selling and new institutional buying:
- Jump Financial LLC cut its Lyft position by 47.4% in Q2, selling about 249,686 shares, according to a December 11 MarketBeat report. [45]
- Director Prashant Aggarwal sold roughly 174,599 shares on December 4, worth around $3.89 million, in a move reported by Investing.com. [46]
- Other insiders, including CAO Stephen Hope and director David Lawee, have also reported smaller sales in recent days. [47]
On the other side of the ledger, MarketBeat’s ownership feed highlights new or increased positions from HighVista Strategies, Federated Hermes, Marshall Wace, Arrowstreet Capital and Norges Bank, among others, suggesting that several large institutions see value at or below current prices. [48]
Insider selling doesn’t automatically mean insiders are bearish—they often sell for diversification or tax reasons—but a steady drip of sales can cap near‑term enthusiasm if not offset by strong fundamentals.
What it all means for LYFT as of December 11, 2025
Putting the pieces together:
- Fundamentals: Lyft is now consistently free‑cash‑flow positive, has posted record bookings, riders, and rides, and delivered positive net income in Q3 2025 with improving adjusted margins. [49]
- Growth outlook: Consensus expects low‑to‑mid‑teens annual revenue growth and mid‑20s EPS growth into 2026, with management guiding to continued double‑digit bookings growth in Q4. [50]
- Valuation: By earnings, the stock looks rich; by sales and free cash flow, it may still be cheap compared with peers and its own growth rate. [51]
- Sentiment: Analysts have been steadily raising price targets, and several houses now sit in the mid‑20s, but the overall consensus clusters around “Hold” to “Buy” with moderate upside. [52]
- Risks: Robotaxi progress from Waymo and Tesla, regulatory and safety headlines, and the possibility that AV economics mostly favor larger or more global players (notably Uber) are front‑and‑center in recent downdrafts. [53]
For now, the market appears to be pricing Lyft as a profitable but strategically vulnerable ride‑sharing platform: one that has executed a solid operational turnaround but still needs to prove it can thrive in a world where autonomous vehicles are no longer science fiction but live competitors.
Nothing here is individual investment advice, but if you’re following LYFT, the next catalysts to watch are:
- Execution against Q4 2025 guidance and 2026 outlook
- How quickly AV pilots with partners like Waymo ramp within Lyft’s own network
- Any changes in regulatory or legal posture around ride‑share safety and labor classification
References
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