Macquarie Group Limited (ASX: MQG) heads into the final weeks of 2025 in a curious position: the share price has come off its record highs, earnings have normalised after a boom period, yet the group is in the middle of some of the biggest strategic moves in its history.
As of 9 December 2025, Macquarie shares are trading around A$196–197, leaving the stock roughly 19% below its A$242.90 peak from January but still well above the 52‑week low near A$160. [1] At the same time, the bank is pursuing an A$11.6 billion bid for logistics group Qube, finalising the sale of a large public asset‑management franchise to Nomura, and paying an increased interim dividend while extending its share buyback.
Below is a detailed look at the latest news, forecasts and analysis on MQG as at 9 December 2025.
Share price, valuation and market positioning
According to Investing.com, Macquarie Group Ltd is trading at about A$196.7 per share, with a 52‑week range of A$160.00 to A$242.90. [2] That puts the stock roughly 19% below its 12‑month high and about 23% above the 12‑month low.
StockAnalysis estimates Macquarie’s market capitalisation at around A$72 billion (based on early December prices) and notes that the group’s market cap has fallen roughly 14% over the past year, reflecting the de‑rating after a strong multi‑year run. [3]
On traditional valuation metrics, StockAnalysis also puts Macquarie on a trailing price‑to‑earnings ratio of about 20x, a premium to many global banking peers but closer to large-cap infrastructure and alternative‑asset managers than to pure retail banks. [4]
Rask Media recently pointed out that Macquarie’s share price is down about 11% year‑to‑date in 2025, a weaker showing than several domestic financial peers, after years of outperformance. [5] That underperformance is a key part of the current debate: is MQG simply giving back some froth, or is the market starting to question its premium status?
Macquarie remains a core component of the Australian equity landscape. It holds a weight of around 2.6% in the SPDR S&P/ASX 200 ETF (ASX: STW) and about 8.3% in the SPDR MSCI Australia Select High Dividend Yield ETF (ASX: SYI), cementing its role as a key financial and dividend stock in many portfolios. [6] Vanguard’s diversified growth ETF VDHG also carries Macquarie as a top‑10 holding at roughly 1% of assets. [7]
Half‑year 2026 result: profits softer, dividends higher
On 7 November 2025, Macquarie released its 2026 half‑year (1H26) result for the six months to 30 September 2025. Net profit after tax attributable to ordinary shareholders came in at A$1.655 billion, up 3% on the prior corresponding period but down 21% on the immediately preceding half. [8]
Key highlights from the official release:
- Return on equity (ROE) for the half was 9.6%, below the double‑digit teens Macquarie regularly delivered before 2023. [9]
- Net operating income was A$8.69 billion, up 6% year‑on‑year but 3% lower than the previous half. Operating expenses were A$6.24 billion, 5% higher than a year earlier and flat against the second half of FY25. [10]
- Assets under management (AUM) reached A$959.1 billion, up 5% versus September 2024 and 2% vs March 2025, reflecting positive market movements and higher valuations, partially offset by outflows in some equity strategies. [11]
By operating group, the picture is mixed: [12]
- Macquarie Asset Management (MAM) profit jumped 43% to A$1.175 billion, driven largely by performance fees from data‑centre and infrastructure assets, including an enormous sale of Aligned Data Centers at an enterprise value around US$40 billion.
- Banking and Financial Services (BFS) profit rose 22% to A$793 million, as home‑loan and deposit growth continued in its fast‑growing digital bank.
- Commodities and Global Markets (CGM) profit fell 15% to A$1.113 billion, reflecting a much quieter period in commodity markets and higher investment and remediation costs.
- Macquarie Capital nearly doubled profit, up 92% to A$711 million, benefiting from stronger M&A and private credit income.
The result was below market expectations. Reuters reported that the Visible Alpha consensus had pencilled in around A$1.86 billion of half‑year profit; the miss triggered a one‑day share price fall of more than 5% and left Macquarie shares down mid‑single digits for the year at that point, compared with a strong gain in the ASX financials index. [13]
Reuters Breakingviews argued that Macquarie shareholders are “living in the past”, noting that the bank is still priced at more than 2x forward book value even though ROE has slipped to high single digits and analysts do not expect returns above roughly 13% for several years. [14]
Dividend, yield and capital management
Despite the softer earnings profile, Macquarie continues to lean on its long‑standing playbook of growing dividends and returning surplus capital.
For 1H26 the board declared an interim ordinary dividend of A$2.80 per share, 35% franked. That is higher than the A$2.60 interim dividend paid for 1H25, though lower than the A$3.90 final dividend for FY25, and represents a payout ratio of about 64%, consistent with the group’s target range of 50–70%. [15]
Key dates:
- Record date: 18 November 2025
- Payment date: 17 December 2025 [16]
The Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP) for the interim payout is being satisfied by on‑market share purchases, with the DRP pricing period running from 24 November to 3 December 2025. An ASX notice indicates that DRP shares will be allocated at A$195.34, effectively a small discount to where the stock had been trading in late November. [17]
Dividend data providers estimate that Macquarie’s forward dividend yield is around 2.8–2.9% at early‑December prices, with average dividend growth of roughly 12–13% per year over the past three years. [18] That puts MQG in the “growing income” rather than high‑yield bucket.
On capital management, Macquarie’s balance sheet remains conservatively positioned:
- Group capital surplus: A$7.6 billion above regulatory minimums
- Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio (Bank Level 2, APRA): 12.4%
- Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR): 173%; Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR): 113% [19]
In light of this surplus, the board has extended the up‑to‑A$2 billion on‑market share buyback for another 12 months. As of 6 November 2025, Macquarie had bought back A$1.013 billion of stock at an average price of A$189.80 per share. [20] The remaining capacity gives management flexibility to support the share price or offset scrip issuance, although actual buyback pace will depend on market conditions and alternative uses of capital.
Qube bid: a A$11.6 billion bet on ports and logistics
Perhaps the single biggest swing Macquarie is taking right now is its move on Qube Holdings (ASX: QUB), Australia’s largest integrated import‑export logistics operator.
In late November, Macquarie Asset Management (MAM) lodged a non‑binding, all‑cash offer of A$5.20 a share for Qube, valuing the company at about A$11.6 billion including debt—a roughly 28% premium to Qube’s pre‑bid share price. [21]
Key details of the deal:
- Qube has granted MAM exclusive due diligence until 1 February 2026.
- Qube’s board has indicated it would unanimously recommend the deal, in the absence of a superior proposal and subject to an independent expert’s sign‑off. [22]
- The takeover would be one of Australia’s largest transactions in 2025 and a major expansion of Macquarie’s already significant ports and freight footprint.
However, the transaction is far from a done deal. The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) is widely expected to scrutinise the implications for competition in east‑coast ports. Qube owns 50% of Patrick at Port Botany, while Macquarie funds already hold a large stake in Port of Newcastle; analysts have flagged that combining these interests could raise market‑power concerns. [23]
The Qube offer is also set to be an early test case for Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ new merger rules, which introduce mandatory notification and streamlined—but potentially more intensive—review processes for large deals from January 2026. [24]
For Macquarie shareholders, the Qube bid is a classic high‑conviction Macquarie move: a long‑duration infrastructure asset at a full price, heavy on regulatory scrutiny, but potentially capable of supporting stable, fee‑rich income over decades if integration goes well.
Nomura acquisition: reshaping Macquarie’s asset‑management mix
While Macquarie is trying to add Qube, it has simultaneously been selling down parts of its traditional asset‑management arm.
On 2 December 2025, Nomura Asset Management confirmed it had completed a US$1.8 billion acquisition of Macquarie’s US and European public asset‑management businesses. The deal transfers around US$166 billion of assets under management—equities, fixed income and multi‑asset strategies—from Macquarie to Nomura. [25]
The transaction structure includes:
- A distribution partnership under which Nomura can help sell selected Macquarie private‑markets funds to high‑net‑worth and family‑office clients in the US.
- The combination of Macquarie’s former public‑markets units with Nomura’s existing Capital Management and high‑yield operations into a new entity, Nomura Asset Management International. [26]
For Macquarie, the sale pushes its asset‑management mix further towards private markets, infrastructure and alternative assets—businesses that tend to carry higher margins and performance fees, but also more volatile earnings. That transformation was already visible in the 1H26 result, where performance fees linked to digital infrastructure assets like Aligned Data Centers and AirTrunk were a key driver of the MAM division’s 43% profit jump. [27]
This strategic pivot deepens Macquarie’s status as a hybrid between a bank and an alternative‑asset manager, with all the opportunity and cyclicality that implies.
Digital banking growth and APRA’s “most significant” club
Macquarie’s retail arm, Banking and Financial Services, has quietly become a serious competitor to Australia’s big four banks.
Reuters reports that Macquarie’s mortgage book has grown to about A$160.3 billion, giving it a home‑loan market share of roughly 6.5%, up from 3.5% five years ago. Deposit balances have also risen strongly as customers shift to its digital platform, attracted by relatively simple and competitive offerings. [28]
An analysis in The Australian notes that Macquarie’s digital bank recently crossed A$316 billion in assets, placing it into the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority’s proposed “Most Significant Financial Institution” (MSFI) tier—essentially the club of banks with assets above A$300 billion alongside the big four. [29] That designation is likely to mean tougher regulatory scrutiny but is also a sign of just how far Macquarie has come as a mainstream bank.
For equity investors, this matters because growing, sticky low‑cost deposits and mortgage volumes can help smooth the group’s earnings through down cycles in its more volatile markets‑related businesses.
Regulatory and legal overhangs
Part of the current scepticism around MQG’s premium valuation stems from a series of regulatory and governance issues that have dented its “golden child” reputation.
The most prominent recent cases include:
- Shield Master Fund remediation – In September 2025, Macquarie agreed to repay about A$321 million to nearly 3,000 customers whose retirement savings had been invested in the failed Shield Master Fund via one of its investment platforms. ASIC alleged that Macquarie Investment Management failed to act “efficiently, honestly and fairly” by not placing the fund under heightened monitoring. Macquarie has pledged to repay affected investors and strengthen oversight processes; in light of that cooperation, ASIC has said it will not seek civil penalties in this case. [30]
- Short‑selling reporting case – ASIC has separately launched Federal Court proceedings alleging Macquarie misreported up to A$1.5 billion of short‑sale trades over roughly 15 years, one of several compliance matters confronting the group. [31]
- Helicopter leasing sale probe – In October, the UK Competition and Markets Authority opened an investigation into the proposed sale of Macquarie’s helicopter‑leasing division to SMFL LCI Helicopters, a Sumitomo Mitsui Finance and Leasing subsidiary, in a deal reportedly worth just over US$1 billion. The regulator is assessing whether the transaction could substantially lessen competition in UK helicopter‑leasing markets, with a Phase 1 decision deadline set for 3 December 2025. [32]
These actions follow several other enforcement matters across Australia, the UK and US in recent years. Reuters Breakingviews has highlighted that repeated run‑ins with regulators, combined with a “first strike” against the remuneration report, could threaten Macquarie’s status as a near‑faultless operator and put pressure on executive‑pay structures. [33]
Board and leadership changes
Governance is also in flux at the top of Macquarie.
On 5 December 2025, Macquarie announced the appointment of William Vereker as an independent non‑executive director of Macquarie Group Limited, effective 1 February 2026, subject to approvals. Vereker is a London‑based banker with extensive global experience; he sits on the board of London Stock Exchange Group and previously chaired Santander UK. His appointment will take the Macquarie board to nine members. [34]
Separately, Macquarie has flagged a succession process in the finance function, with long‑serving CFO Alex Harvey planning to step down at the end of 2025 and retire in 2026, and deputy CFO Frank Kwok identified as the incoming finance chief. That transition, coupled with ongoing CEO Shemara Wikramanayake’s long tenure, has drawn attention from analysts tracking leadership depth and continuity. [35]
At the 2025 AGM, roughly 25% of shareholders voted against the remuneration report, delivering the board a “first strike” under Australian rules; a second strike in 2026 could trigger a spill resolution. [36] How the board responds to regulatory findings and pay concerns will be closely watched.
What analysts and models are saying about MQG
Street price targets and ratings
Across mainstream data providers, the sell‑side consensus on Macquarie is moderately positive but more cautious than in prior years.
- Investing.com reports an average 12‑month target price of about A$224.5 per share, implying roughly 14% upside from the current A$196–197 level, with an overall “Buy” rating. [37]
- Stockopedia lists a slightly higher consensus target around A$229, about 17% above a recent close near A$196, and notes that analysts expect next‑year earnings per share of roughly A$10.84. [38]
In other words, the Street on average sees high single‑ to low double‑digit upside, but the stock is no longer viewed as deeply undervalued; it trades more like a high‑quality franchise at a fair but demanding multiple.
Growth and profitability forecasts
Aggregators such as Simply Wall St and TS2 Tech summarise consensus expectations for Macquarie as follows over the next few years: TechStock²
- Revenue growth: roughly 5–6% per year
- Earnings growth: around 9–10% per year, off the current lower base
- ROE: expected to settle in the 12–13% range in the medium term—better than today’s 9–10%, but below pre‑2023 boom levels.
Given a trailing P/E around 20x and forecast earnings growth in high single digits, many analysts describe Macquarie’s valuation as “reasonable but not obviously cheap” for a cyclical, markets‑exposed financial group. [39]
Technical and algorithmic views
Short‑term technical and algorithmic models are more ambivalent:
- The technical‑analysis site StockInvest currently classifies MQG as a “hold/accumulate” candidate, having upgraded it from “sell” earlier in December. The platform cites several positive signals but stops short of calling the setup a clear buy at recent prices around A$196. [40]
- Long‑term algorithmic forecaster WalletInvestor projects that MQG could gain around 32% over five years to reach about A$260 by 2030, but such mechanically generated forecasts rely heavily on past volatility and trends and should be treated as highly uncertain. [41]
Key opportunities and risks into 2026
Putting the pieces together, investors weighing Macquarie Group on 9 December 2025 are effectively debating a set of intertwined opportunities and risks.
Potential upside drivers
- Execution on Qube and other big deals
A successful Qube acquisition would further entrench Macquarie as a dominant owner of port and logistics infrastructure in Australia and could underpin more stable fee and investment income over time. [42] - Alternatives and digital‑infrastructure platform
The Aligned Data Centers and AirTrunk deals demonstrate Macquarie’s ability to build and monetise large‑scale digital‑infrastructure platforms, generating sizable performance fees. If similar opportunities emerge in AI‑related infrastructure and the energy transition, MAM’s earnings could again surprise to the upside. [43] - Retail banking growth
Continued gains in deposits and mortgages strengthen Macquarie’s funding base and partly offset volatility in trading and investment‑banking income. The APRA “Most Significant Financial Institution” status is both a regulatory challenge and a badge of scale. [44]
Key downside risks
- Prolonged weakness in commodities and markets
The 15% profit decline in CGM highlights how sensitive earnings are to market volatility and trading conditions. A subdued environment for longer, or tighter market regulation, would weigh on group ROE. [45] - Regulatory and governance drag
The Shield Master Fund remediation, short‑selling case and UK helicopter‑deal probe illustrate a cluster of compliance issues. Additional penalties, capital requirements or reputational hits could erode Macquarie’s premium valuation and invite more activist scrutiny of executive pay and board composition. [46] - Deal and execution risk on Qube and Nomura
Overpaying for Qube, misjudging regulatory risk, or failing to fully realise synergies could dilute returns. Likewise, concentrating more heavily in private markets after the Nomura sale could make earnings more exposed to valuation cycles in infrastructure and alternatives. [47] - Valuation sensitivity
With MQG still trading at elevated multiples of earnings and book value versus many global peers, even modest disappointments in profit growth or ROE could trigger further multiple compression. This is precisely the concern flagged by recent Reuters Breakingviews commentary. [48]
Bottom line: Macquarie at a crossroads
As of 9 December 2025, Macquarie Group looks less like the near‑unstoppable profit machine of the 2016–2022 era and more like a mature, complex financial conglomerate that has to work hard to justify its premium.
On one side of the ledger:
- The group remains profitable, well capitalised and globally diversified.
- It is deeply embedded in high‑barrier sectors: ports, digital infrastructure, renewable energy, private credit and Australian retail banking.
- Dividends are still growing and backed by a solid balance sheet and an extended buyback.
On the other side:
- Earnings have normalised; ROE is below the lofty levels implied by the share price, and analysts are no longer projecting a quick return to the glory days.
- There is a non‑trivial list of regulatory, governance and deal‑execution risks that could constrain management and weigh on sentiment.
- The Qube bid and asset‑management reshuffle will either be seen, in hindsight, as the next great Macquarie coup—or as an over‑reach at a demanding valuation.
For now, consensus forecasts and price targets suggest modest upside with significant execution risk. Whether Macquarie’s current share price is ultimately remembered as a consolidation pause before the next leg up, or as the start of a longer de‑rating, will depend heavily on how these 2025‑26 strategic moves play out.
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. www.raskmedia.com.au, 6. stockanalysis.com, 7. stockanalysis.com, 8. www.macquarie.com, 9. www.macquarie.com, 10. www.macquarie.com, 11. www.macquarie.com, 12. www.macquarie.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.macquarie.com, 16. www.macquarie.com, 17. www.listcorp.com, 18. www.digrin.com, 19. www.macquarie.com, 20. www.macquarie.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.theaustralian.com.au, 24. www.theaustralian.com.au, 25. www.globaltrading.net, 26. www.globaltrading.net, 27. www.macquarie.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.theaustralian.com.au, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.macquarie.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.investing.com, 38. www.stockopedia.com, 39. stockanalysis.com, 40. stockinvest.us, 41. walletinvestor.com, 42. www.reuters.com, 43. www.macquarie.com, 44. www.theaustralian.com.au, 45. www.macquarie.com, 46. www.reuters.com, 47. www.reuters.com, 48. www.reuters.com
