Macquarie Group (ASX: MQG): What to Know Before the ASX Opens on 17 November 2025

As Australian markets head into Monday’s open on 17 November 2025, Macquarie Group Limited (ASX: MQG) is lining up for a potentially busy session. The stock is coming off a volatile fortnight marked by half‑year earnings, a fresh dividend, ongoing share buybacks and renewed scrutiny of its superannuation platform links to the failed Shield and First Guardian funds.

Here’s a concise, investor‑focused briefing on Macquarie Group stock before the ASX opens in Australia today.

1. Share price snapshot heading into Monday’s open

Macquarie Group shares closed on Friday, 14 November 2025 at A$200.58, down 2.2% for the session after a A$4.52 fall. ^[1]

Over the last month, the stock has:

Traded between roughly A$200 and A$231, putting Friday’s close near the lower end of its 30‑day range. ^[2]
Delivered a one‑month share price return of –12.4%, despite strong three‑ and five‑year total shareholder returns of around 22.6% and 72.8% respectively. ^[3]

Daily trading data show that on Friday MQG moved between A$199.54 and A$202.79, on volume of around 870k shares, before settling at A$200.58. ^[4]

For context, Macquarie’s 52‑week range sits near A$160 to A$242.90, so the stock is currently trading in the middle third of its one‑year band. ^[5]

2. Ex‑dividend this morning: expect a mechanical price adjustment

The single most important technical factor at today’s open is that Macquarie goes ex‑dividend on Monday, 17 November 2025:

Interim dividend (1H26): A$2.80 per share, 35% franked.
Record date: Tuesday, 18 November 2025.
Payment date: Wednesday, 17 December 2025. ^[6]

At Friday’s close of A$200.58, the A$2.80 interim payment equates to a theoretical ex‑dividend adjustment of about 1.4%, implying a purely mechanical move down to roughly A$197.78 if all else were equal.

In practice, the opening print will also reflect:

Weekend macro news and global risk sentiment
Ongoing reaction to Macquarie’s half‑year result and sector‑wide moves in financials
Any stock‑specific flows around income‑oriented investors rotating in or out

For reference, combining the A$2.80 interim with the prior A$3.90 final dividend for 2H25 implies a trailing cash dividend of A$6.70 per share, or a trailing yield of roughly 3.3% at Friday’s close (before franking credits). ^[7]

3. 1H26 results: modest profit growth, softer ROE and a mixed divisional picture

Macquarie released its 1H26 (half‑year to 30 September 2025) result on 7 November:

Net profit: A$1,655 million, up 3% on 1H25 but down 21% on the previous half (2H25). ^[8]
Net operating income: A$8,691 million, +6% year‑on‑year, –3% vs 2H25. ^[9]
Assets under management (AUM): A$959.1 billion, up 5% on a year ago and 2% since March 2025. ^[10]
Annualised return on equity (ROE): 9.6%, down from 11.2% in FY25. ^[11]

By operating group, the story is nuanced: ^[12]

Macquarie Asset Management (MAM)
- Net profit contribution A$1,175m, up 43% year‑on‑year, driven by higher performance fees.
Banking and Financial Services (BFS)
- Net profit A$793m, up 22%, supported by strong home‑loan and deposit growth, partly offset by margin pressure and higher tech spend.
Commodities and Global Markets (CGM)
- Net profit A$1,113m, down 15% vs 1H25, reflecting higher costs (including remediation) and softer conditions in key trading activities.
Macquarie Capital
- Net profit A$711m, up 92%, on stronger M&A, brokerage fees and private credit income.

External coverage highlighted that commodities and green‑asset writedowns were the weak spots. A Financial Times report noted that Macquarie’s net profit, while higher year‑on‑year, fell short of analyst expectations (around A$1.8b) and that a A$152m writedown on renewable projects, particularly US offshore wind, weighed on results. ^[13]

This combination of a headline profit miss, lower ROE, and pressure in the once‑dominant commodities business triggered a sharp share‑price reaction: MQG slumped roughly 7% on the day of the result. ^[14]

4. Dividend, buyback and capital position: still a capital‑return story

Despite the market’s reaction, Macquarie’s balance sheet remains comfortably above regulatory minimums and capital returns are still centre‑stage:

Group capital surplus: A$7.6 billion as at 30 September 2025.
Bank Level 2 CET1 ratio: 12.4% (harmonised 17.3%).
Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR): 173%; Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR): 113%. ^[15]

On capital management:

The Board has extended its on‑market buyback of up to A$2 billion for another 12 months.
By 6 November 2025, Macquarie had already repurchased A$1,013 million of shares at an average price of A$189.80 per share. ^[16]
The A$2.80 interim dividend represents a payout ratio of 64%, at the upper end of Macquarie’s stated 50–70% payout range. ^[17]

Morningstar’s analysis emphasises that the higher interim dividend and strong BFS growth prompted them to lift their group earnings forecasts by around 5% and increase their fair value estimate to A$205 per share, with MQG trading modestly below that level at Friday’s close. ^[18]

5. Analyst and valuation views: modest upside, but with caveats

Equity research and data platforms are generally framing Macquarie as fundamentally sound with moderate upside, though not without risks:

A recent Simply Wall St valuation piece estimates Macquarie’s “fair value” at about A$224.48 per share, around 10.6% above the last close of A$200.58, suggesting potential upside if earnings and margins track their bullish assumptions. ^[19]
The same analysis notes a price‑to‑earnings ratio near 20.2x, below both its selected peer group average (around 46.9x) and the broader industry average (about 22.6x), implying MQG isn’t priced as aggressively as some global capital‑markets peers. ^[20]
A separate Yahoo Finance summary of broker estimates points to consensus FY26 revenue expectations of roughly A$18.5 billion, reinforcing the view that analysts still model solid top‑line growth despite the recent earnings wobble. ^[21]

Morningstar, meanwhile, describes Macquarie as a diversified asset manager and bank that’s still delivering above‑market home‑loan growth and benefiting from performance fees in asset management, but flags classic risks: exposure to unlisted assets, the lumpy nature of transaction‑driven income and the potential for lower infrastructure returns if interest rates stay higher for longer. ^[22]

In short, valuation commentary is mildly constructive, but it hinges on execution in the core growth engines (MAM and BFS) and stabilisation in CGM and green investments.

6. Shield / First Guardian scandal and InterPrac: regulatory overhang and platform risk

One of the most important non‑earnings headlines around Macquarie this month is its link—via its superannuation platform—to the failed Shield Master Fund and First Guardian schemes, which have triggered a widening regulatory crackdown.

Macquarie’s Shield settlement

In September, Macquarie Investment Management Limited (MIML), a Macquarie subsidiary and trustee of the Macquarie Superannuation Plan, admitted contraventions of the Corporations Act and agreed to reimburse members who invested in the Shield Master Fund via its platform. Key points from the National Tribune’s summary of ASIC’s action: ^[23]

MIML oversaw about A$321 million in superannuation investments into Shield from roughly 3,000 members between 2022 and 2023.
Macquarie has committed to pay affected members 100% of the amounts they invested (less withdrawals), via a court‑enforceable undertaking with ASIC.
ASIC criticised MIML for failing to put Shield on a heightened‑monitoring watch list, and for not acting efficiently, honestly and fairly in its role as trustee.

While ASIC has chosen not to seek a civil penalty in light of Macquarie’s cooperation and restitution commitments, the episode keeps platform governance and non‑financial risk squarely in the spotlight.

ASIC’s new legal blitz and Macquarie’s response

ASIC has since launched civil proceedings against InterPrac Financial Planning, SQM Research and MWL Financial Services, alleging widespread failures that saw thousands of Australians steered into Shield and First Guardian, placing more than A$1 billion of retirement savings at risk. ^[24]

In direct response to the scandal and ongoing ASIC actions:

Macquarie and Netwealth have moved to ban InterPrac‑licensed advisers from placing new clients onto their platforms, effective from January 2026. ^[25]

For Macquarie shareholders, the near‑term earnings impact from the Shield remediation appears manageable in the context of its capital base, but the reputational and regulatory implications are significant:

ASIC and APRA are clearly signalling tighter expectations for superannuation platform trustees and gatekeepers. ^[26]
Ongoing investigations into advisers, trustees and research houses mean headline risk around the scandal is likely to persist into 2026. ^[27]

Investors heading into Monday’s open should therefore see the InterPrac and Shield stories as part of a broader governance narrative around Macquarie, rather than a simple one‑off cost.

7. Governance and executive pay: scrutiny at the top

CEO Shemara Wikramanayake remains in the news not only for steering Macquarie through a tougher earnings period, but also for her compensation:

A recent survey of ASX‑listed CEO pay found Wikramanayake again ranked as Australia’s highest‑paid chief executive in 2025, with a total package of about A$24.03 million, even after a slight year‑on‑year reduction. ^[28]
The same coverage notes that Macquarie spent more than A$116 million on executive remuneration, which can fuel debates around pay, performance and shareholder alignment. ^[29]

Australian Financial Review reporting has also highlighted investor jitters and regulatory pressure after a series of compliance issues and penalties across Macquarie’s businesses this year, intensifying scrutiny on management as CGM’s profits soften. ^[30]

While these governance themes don’t determine Monday’s opening price, they feed into longer‑term sentiment, especially for institutional investors with ESG screens.

8. Macquarie’s medium‑term outlook: cautious but still growth‑oriented

Macquarie’s official guidance continues to avoid precise short‑term forecasts, instead focusing on a medium‑term narrative. In its half‑year release, management reiterated that the outlook is shaped by: ^[31]

Global economic conditions, inflation and interest rates
Market volatility and geopolitical events
Regulatory and tax changes
FX movements and the geographic mix of income

Nevertheless, management maintains that Macquarie is “well positioned to deliver superior performance in the medium term”, pointing to: ^[32]

Established, diversified income streams across asset management, banking, commodities and advisory
Structural growth tailwinds in infrastructure, energy transition and private credit
Ongoing investment in technology and operating platforms
A conservative balance sheet and risk‑management culture

Morningstar’s base case assumes Macquarie continues to grow its home‑loan book faster than the broader market over the next five years and that MAM’s infrastructure and property franchises keep attracting capital, even amid higher rates. ^[33]

9. Key things to watch for Macquarie shares at the 17 November open

Putting it all together, here are the main factors MQG traders and investors may focus on as the ASX opens today:

Ex‑dividend adjustment
- Expect an initial downward shift reflecting the A$2.80 interim dividend going ex‑dividend. Any move significantly larger or smaller than ~A$2.80 (about 1.4% of Friday’s close) will hint at additional sentiment‑driven buying or selling. ^[34]
Follow‑through from the earnings sell‑off
- The half‑year result is now more than a week old, but CGM weakness, the renewables writedown and lower ROE are still being digested. Watch whether buyers step in on perceived value grounds, or whether concerns about the profit mix and green‑asset risks keep pressure on the stock. ^[35]
Reaction to Shield / InterPrac developments
- The market will continue to weigh Macquarie’s Shield restitution commitment and platform‑governance issues against its strong capital position. Any new commentary from regulators or from Macquarie itself could move the stock. ^[36]
Analyst revisions and valuation narratives
- With Morningstar and Simply Wall St fair value estimates (around A$205–A$224) above the current price, some investors may view weakness as an opportunity—provided they’re comfortable with the risk profile and regulatory backdrop. ^[37]
Macro and sector moves
- As a large, globally diversified financial stock, Macquarie is sensitive to moves in bond yields, credit spreads, commodities and broader financials sentiment. Any big overnight moves in global banks or infrastructure‑linked names can feed into MQG’s opening tone. ^[38]

10. Bottom line

Heading into the 17 November 2025 ASX open, Macquarie Group sits at the intersection of:

A solid but not spectacular half‑year result, with profit growth driven by asset management, retail banking and advisory, offset by softer commodities and a lower ROE.
Ongoing capital returns via a fully‑funded interim dividend and an extended buyback.
Regulatory and reputational headwinds tied to the Shield and First Guardian collapses and ASIC’s broader clampdown on superannuation gatekeepers.
Mixed valuation signals, with several independent analyses pointing to moderate upside from current levels, balanced by execution, asset‑quality and governance risks.

For anyone following Macquarie Group stock today, the ex‑dividend move is likely to dominate the opening print, but the medium‑term story will be written by how well Macquarie manages regulatory expectations, stabilises its commodities franchise and continues to grow its asset‑management and banking platforms.

Important note: This article is general information only and does not constitute financial product advice or a recommendation to buy or sell Macquarie Group Limited shares. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Consider speaking to a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.

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