Macquarie Group Limited (ASX:MQG) sits in a rare corner of the market: part global investment bank, part asset manager, part commodities trader, part mortgage lender—an earnings mix that can look brilliantly diversified one quarter and stubbornly cyclical the next. [1]
On Thursday, December 18, 2025, Macquarie shares closed at A$197.71, down 0.91% on the session, after trading between A$196.08 and A$198.94, with volume around 716,630 shares. [2]
The bigger story for MQG stock right now isn’t one dramatic headline. It’s a tug-of-war between (1) stronger contributions from annuity-style businesses and performance fees, especially in asset management, and (2) a quieter trading environment that can sap momentum from the firm’s historically powerful commodities-and-markets engine. Add in a steady drumbeat of deal activity in infrastructure and private markets—and a watchful regulatory backdrop—and you get a stock that can swing on sentiment as much as spreadsheets.
Below is a detailed roundup of the latest Macquarie Group stock news, forecasts, and market analysis available as of Dec. 18, 2025.
Macquarie’s business mix: why MQG stock trades differently than major banks
Macquarie is often compared with global investment banks because a meaningful part of earnings is linked to market conditions and deal flow. But it also has a large asset management platform and a growing banking franchise in Australia.
Reuters’ company profile summarizes Macquarie’s operating segments as:
- Macquarie Asset Management (MAM)
- Banking and Financial Services (BFS)
- Commodities and Global Markets (CGM)
- Macquarie Capital [3]
That blend is central to the MQG stock debate in late 2025: what deserves the “Macquarie multiple”—the steadier fee streams, or the more cyclical market-facing earnings?
The dividend just hit accounts—and that matters for December price action
A simple but very real factor behind mid-December trading: Macquarie’s interim dividend has just been paid.
Macquarie’s shareholder calendar shows the 1H26 interim dividend was A$2.80 per share (35% franked), with an ex-dividend date of Nov. 17, 2025, record date Nov. 18, 2025, and payment date Dec. 17, 2025. [4]
Because the cash has now left the building (and landed in shareholder accounts), the stock can trade with slightly different near-term flows than it did earlier in the month—especially among income-focused investors.
Macquarie also has listed hybrid securities (capital notes). For example, Macquarie’s ASX notice for Macquarie Group Capital Notes 5 (MQGPE) indicates a distribution payment date of 18/12/2025 (today). This is separate from ordinary equity, but it’s part of the broader “Macquarie yield ecosystem” that some investors track alongside MQG shares. [5]
The key “recent news” backdrop: half-year results set the tone for MQG shares
The most important fundamental anchor for MQG stock heading into year-end came from Macquarie’s first-half results (six months ended Sept. 30, 2025).
Reuters reported that Macquarie posted net profit of A$1.66 billion, up from A$1.61 billion a year earlier, but below Visible Alpha consensus estimates (Reuters cited A$1.86 billion). [6]
What stood out in the result (and why investors still care in December)
1) CGM cooled off (and that’s the cyclical heart of the debate).
Reuters noted profit from Commodities and Global Markets fell 15% to A$1.11 billion, with management pointing to low volatility and a subdued commodities environment—conditions that can reduce trading opportunities. [7]
2) Asset management jumped on performance fees—especially tied to data-centre assets.
Reuters reported profit in the asset management unit rose 43%, helped by higher performance fees, including from data-centre assets such as AirTrunk and Aligned (with Reuters referencing a recent sale involving Aligned). [8]
3) Macquarie kept leaning into Australian mortgages.
Reuters said Macquarie’s mortgage book reached A$160.3 billion, with an estimated 6.5% market share, up materially versus five years earlier—evidence the bank is still gaining ground in a brutally competitive lending market. [9]
4) Capital management stayed shareholder-friendly.
Macquarie said it would extend its A$2 billion on-market buyback for another 12 months; Reuters reported about A$1 billion had been bought back so far. [10]
5) Regulatory issues didn’t disappear—but they were framed as containable.
Reuters also noted Macquarie agreed in September to repay A$321 million to investors who bought into the collapsed Shield Master Fund through one of the bank’s platforms. [11]
That combination—buyback + dividend + asset management strength, offset by softer trading conditions and regulatory overhang—is essentially the dashboard MQG investors are still reading in December.
Deal pipeline: why infrastructure and M&A keep showing up in Macquarie stock conversations
Macquarie is rarely “just” an earnings story; it’s also a capital recycling and deal machine, particularly through its asset management arm.
Qube takeover proposal: a big-ticket Australian deal in play
In late November, Reuters reported Macquarie Asset Management made a buyout proposal for Qube Holdings, valuing it at A$11.6 billion including debt (enterprise value), at A$5.20 per share, and Qube granted Macquarie exclusive due diligence until Feb. 1. [12]
From a Macquarie Group stock perspective, this matters less because it’s a single transaction and more because it signals the platform’s ongoing ability to deploy capital and attract co-investors—and to generate fees across origination, execution, and long-run asset management.
Reuters Breakingviews also flagged the Qube situation as part of a broader late-year improvement in Australia’s deal mood. [13]
UK airport exposure: expanding infrastructure footprint
Macquarie also continued pushing deeper into infrastructure ownership. Reuters reported in October that Macquarie’s asset management arm would lift its stake in London City Airport to 75% by acquiring an additional 50% stake (financial terms undisclosed). [14]
Macquarie itself said the transaction would take its ownership to 75% and highlighted the airport’s growth plans and positioning. [15]
For MQG shares, these kinds of moves tend to support the long-term “platform premium” argument: Macquarie isn’t only harvesting market cycles; it’s also building a global portfolio of fee-generating real assets.
Analyst forecasts for Macquarie stock: price targets cluster above today’s close, but conviction varies
Analyst targets are not a guarantee—especially for a stock as cycle-sensitive as MQG—but they shape market expectations and headline narratives.
Consensus price targets: the broad range
Investing.com’s consensus snapshot (13 analysts) shows:
- Average price target: A$224.48
- Low: A$200
- High: A$255
It also lists a consensus tilt toward “Buy”, though with meaningful dispersion across buy/hold/sell calls. [16]
TradingView shows a similar picture, with an analyst price target of A$230.69, ranging from A$200.00 to A$264.98. [17]
Other aggregators can differ on both target and rating mix. For example, TipRanks displays an average target around the low 220s and a consensus “Hold” based on the subset of analysts it tracks in its panel. [18]
One way to interpret this: the market sees upside if conditions normalize, but there’s no universal agreement on how quickly the “good cycle” returns—or what multiple it deserves.
Forecast growth and profitability: steady, not spectacular
Simply Wall St’s forward view (as of its latest update) forecasts:
- Earnings growth: ~9.7% per year
- Revenue growth: ~5.5% per year
- ROE forecast: ~12.8% in three years [19]
That ROE trajectory matters because valuation debates often come down to a blunt rule: high ROE businesses can justify higher price-to-book multiples.
The valuation fight: “premium brand” vs “returns reality”
A Reuters Breakingviews column in November captured the tension bluntly: it highlighted an annualized ROE of 9.6% for the half-year period and said analysts didn’t expect annual returns to breach 13% in the next couple of years, while noting the stock still traded at more than 2x expected book value—a level that implies significantly stronger returns. [20]
Breakingviews also pointed to governance pressure, including a prior shareholder vote where more than 25% opposed the executive compensation plan—an important threshold in Australia’s “two strikes” framework. [21]
This doesn’t mean MQG shares are “wrong.” It means the stock is pricing a future improvement—and the market is continually checking whether the next quarter confirms that optimism or dents it.
What could lift MQG shares in 2026
Here are the most plausible “tailwinds” that show up repeatedly across current coverage and consensus framing:
A rebound in market volatility and client activity
Macquarie’s CGM franchise tends to benefit when volatility rises and clients need risk management, liquidity, and trading solutions—exactly the opposite of the subdued conditions management described. [22]
More performance fees and realizations in private markets
If asset realizations and performance fees remain strong—particularly in infrastructure and digital assets—Macquarie can offset softer trading income. Reuters’ reporting on the half-year result pointed directly to performance fees as a major driver. [23]
Capital returns (buyback + dividends)
An extended buyback and a large interim dividend keep MQG in the conversation for investors who want shareholder yield without holding a traditional “Big Four” bank. [24]
Deal flow momentum
Large, visible transactions—like the Qube proposal—can support confidence that Macquarie’s platform is still a top-tier originator and operator. [25]
The risks investors are watching closely
A prolonged “low-volatility” trading tape
If commodities and markets stay muted, CGM may continue under-delivering versus what bullish investors expect from Macquarie at peak-cycle. [26]
Regulatory and compliance headlines
Macquarie has faced scrutiny tied to compliance and customer outcomes. Reuters reported the Shield Master Fund repayment agreement, and Reuters has also covered additional regulatory actions earlier in 2025. [27]
Execution and approvals on major transactions
Deals can fail on price, due diligence, or regulators. The Qube proposal includes due diligence and approvals as key hurdles, and the market is likely to price that uncertainty until outcomes firm up. [28]
Leadership transitions and depth perception
Reuters noted CFO Alex Harvey is departing at the end of 2025, and markets tend to watch senior transitions closely—especially at firms where investor confidence is partly tied to risk discipline. [29]
Bottom line for Macquarie Group stock on Dec. 18, 2025
Macquarie (ASX:MQG) ended the day at A$197.71, and the broader MQG stock narrative remains a balancing act: asset management and banking are providing steadier support, while commodities-and-markets earnings are being asked to re-accelerate to justify a premium valuation. [30]
Meanwhile, analyst targets generally sit above today’s close, but conviction is uneven—reflecting the reality that Macquarie is not a “set-and-forget” bank stock. It’s a platform whose earnings power is real, but whose timing can be uncooperative.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.macquarie.com, 5. www.macquarie.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.macquarie.com, 16. www.investing.com, 17. www.tradingview.com, 18. www.tipranks.com, 19. simplywall.st, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.investing.com
